1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view on sugar is neutral - bearish. In the context of the global sugar production increase cycle, although the sugar price is close to the historically low - valuation range, there is still no obvious upward driving force. It needs additional weather - driven factors to break out of the bottom - range oscillation. Considering the weak intensity of this La Nina, the supply - demand situation may not reverse until the 26/27 sugar - crushing season [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 ICE Sugar - After the Brazilian sugar production became clearer, the price rose periodically due to India's lower - than - expected production increase, and the overall market was in a range - bound pattern. The market had high - yield expectations for Brazil, but the high - yield expectations continuously suppressed the market. Although Brazil maintained production with a record - high sugar - production rate, institutions began to lower the forecast of Brazil's final sugar output. As Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the increase in the sugar - making ratio, the market expected Brazil's production to recover, and the sugar price continued to decline [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Sugar - As the raw sugar price fell, there was an import profit in the far - month contracts, and the import volume was expected to increase after May. The far - month contracts were still under the expectation of the opening of imported syrup, so the market showed a back structure. During the Spring Festival, the domestic sugar market had a prosperous production and sales situation. From July to October, the increasing imports led to a decline in domestic prices, and the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage was realized. The domestic price challenged the new - sugar production cost [9]. 3.2 International Market: Production Increase Cycle 3.2.1 Global Sugar Market - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar market would have a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. The sugar production was expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption would only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The global sugar market had a supply - demand gap of 2.92 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The expected production increase in the 2025/26 season would likely continue to suppress the sugar price in the next year [12]. 3.2.2 Major Producing Countries - **Brazil**: In the second half of October, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year. As of the second half of October in the 2025/26 season, ethanol production also increased year - on - year in the short term but decreased in the cumulative amount. The Brazilian government approved an increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline. As of the week of November 19, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports decreased. Although the ATR was low, Brazil's sugar production exceeded that of the previous year due to the high sugar - making ratio. Currently, the raw - sugar price was below Brazil's production cost, and the sugar - making ratio began to decline [20][38][39]. - **India**: The 2025/26 season's sugar production (excluding the amount for ethanol production) was expected to be 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol use) was 30.95 million tons. The sugar - crushing season in Uttar Pradesh had started. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) urged the government to revise the minimum sugar sales price and ethanol procurement price [44][48]. - **Thailand**: The expected production increase remained basically unchanged, and the impact of the Thai market, especially on China, mainly came from syrup exports [50]. 3.2.3 Weather Impact - The La Nina phenomenon was expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter and was most likely to turn into a normal El Nino - Southern Oscillation state from January to March 2026. La Nina might cause drought in the central - southern region of Brazil during the 2025 - 2026 sugar - cane growing season, potentially affecting the 26/27 production, but the impact was uncertain due to the weak intensity of this La Nina. It was not expected to affect the planting seasons in India and Thailand [60]. 3.3 Domestic Market: Surge in Imports - **Import Situation**: There was a clear profit window for out - of - quota imports this year, and the domestic market was hit by a large amount of imported sugar from July to October. The import volume was expected to remain high in November. The price of processed new sugar was 5750 - 5890 yuan/ton. The control on Thai syrup was restarted, and the cumulative import volume of syrup and syrup + pre - mixed powder decreased significantly year - on - year [72][81]. - **Production and Sales**: As of the end of October, 29 sugar mills had started operation, one less than the same period last year. The sugar production was 413,400 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons year - on - year, while the sales volume was 91,600 tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons year - on - year. New sugar was sold at a high price due to cost support, and the 01 - contract position was still increasing [94]. - **Price Outlook**: The basis was converging. In terms of the monthly spread, the near - end spot price was supported by cost and was more likely to form a positive - arbitrage trend. In the long term, the raw - sugar price was under pressure, but the downside was limited. The Zhengzhou sugar price was supported by new - sugar cost in the short term but was suppressed by imported sugar in the long term. In 2026, attention should be paid to the expected differences between the production increase expectations and actual production in India and Thailand, as well as the impact of La Nina on Brazil's winter precipitation and sugar - cane yield [103].

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 上周国际油价回落，布伦特01合约跌2.77%。俄乌协议再现曙光，周日美乌双方就美国提出的结束 俄乌冲突28点新计划举行的会谈取得进展,特朗普提出本周四是乌克兰接收和平方案的最后期限, 美联储对12月降息的反复态度亦令原油等风险资产承压。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面临 更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险。 2025年11月24日 (责金属) (原油) 周五贵金属震荡偏弱。美国补发部分经济数据具备韧性，美联储官员们表态存在较大分歧，周五组 约联储主席称利率仍有调整空间令市场再度提升对12月降息押注。美方提出俄乌和平计划遭到多方 反对,后续仍将持续博弈。短期市场多空消息繁杂,贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向性突破。 【铜】 上周五伦铜收回盘中跌幅、尾盘走高，沪铜8.55万再显韧性。美联储票委言论将下月降息概率预期 再次提至五成以上，带动贵金属与铜价反弹回升。LME0-3月转微幅升水，库存15.5万吨，且注销仓 单占比低。沪铜上周减仓,价格震荡在短期均线间。国内沪粤现货交割后延续升水报价。前期空单 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend, and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, keep an eye on the performance of the spot and policy sides of domestic soybeans, and wait for the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation [2][3] - Wait for the end of the correction and focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after stabilization [3] - Continuously monitor the performance of the palm oil supply - demand side and the fluctuations in the macro - situation [4] - Maintain a bearish strategy for the domestic rapeseed sector and pay attention to the interference of foreign bio - fuel policies and economic and trade relationship expectations [6] - Wait for the signing of the specific Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in Northeast China [7] - In the medium - term, continue to observe whether the market trading logic returns to the weak spot market or the expected logic, and hold short positions cautiously [9] Summary by Category Bean - The main contract price of bean futures has declined recently, with significant position reduction on the trading floor and a slowdown in the downward trend. The auction of soybeans by Sinograin this week was fully sold, with an average transaction price of 3,900 yuan per ton. Imported US soybeans have been adjusting recently, affected by the weak overall macro - atmosphere and profit - taking [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 continued to follow the US soybeans, showing a weak and volatile trend. The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its impact on the soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the near - end crushing profit is poor but the loss has narrowed recently. The domestic soybean meal may continue to accumulate inventory [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Commodities generally declined today, the macro - atmosphere was weak, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts in December decreased. The international crude oil price dropped, and the international diesel price also tumbled. The supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is still poor, with an expected 10.32% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20 and a 14.13% - 40.62% month - on - month decrease in exports from November 1 - 29. The soybean - palm oil price spread continues to widen, indicating that soybean oil is stronger than palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The import volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has decreased year - on - year by 10 - 30%. The market focus is on the variables of rapeseed imports. If the Australian rapeseed arrives in China smoothly, the premium of the rapeseed sector over other competitors may decline [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose 1.11% today, breaking through the 2,200 mark at one point. The price of Northeast corn has declined in the past two days, but farmers are reluctant to sell due to the cold weather. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market prefers high - quality Northeast corn, leading to concerns about future supply and transportation capacity in Northeast China. The previous prediction of a second bottom may turn into a wide - range shock [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to be weak, with the near - month contract hitting a new low. The spot price declined slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuated downward during the day, almost erasing yesterday's gains. The spot price was mostly stable, with slight declines in some areas. The short - term market volatility has increased [9]

2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Hold (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, leading to steady price increases, with optimistic market sentiment supporting further price growth [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global rubber production is expected to decrease in December due to seasonal factors, increasing reliance on imports in China [2]. - Weather conditions, including the La Niña phenomenon, are impacting rubber harvesting negatively, contributing to lower supply and profits for domestic producers [2]. Price Trends - International rubber prices are on the rise, with Thai rubber water priced at 56.6 THB/kg and cup rubber at 52.1 THB/kg, both near five-year highs [3]. - Domestic prices in Yunnan are also increasing, with rubber water at 14,100 CNY/ton and rubber blocks at 14,300 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar upward trend [3]. Consumption and Market Sentiment - The automotive sector is showing signs of recovery, with policies boosting sales and exports, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [4]. - Market sentiment is turning optimistic, as indicated by a decrease in the put-call ratio (PCR) to 46%, the lowest in three years, suggesting a bullish outlook on rubber prices [5][6]. Investment Strategies - Companies are advised against single-direction put options due to low success rates and high risks [7]. - Suggested strategies include covered call writing for steady income, long positions with protective puts for risk management, and bull spreads to control costs while maintaining a bullish stance [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently in a phase of profit recovery after a decline from the peak in 2021, similar to the cycle observed from 2012 to 2015 [1][3] - Raw material prices are stable, with gross margins and price spreads at historical lows, but the pressure from oversupply is easing, and demand from mid and downstream sectors is steadily growing [1][3] - Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is expected to expand rapidly from 2022 to 2024, but a significant decline is anticipated in 2025, indicating a peak in capacity growth [1][3] Market Dynamics - The refrigerant market is entering a long-term upward cycle starting from the end of 2023, with prices for major varieties expected to continue rising, such as the price of 2,332 reaching 63,000 yuan, three times higher than the same period last year [1][5] - Major refrigerant companies have reported significant profit increases, with Yonghe's profit growth reaching 450% in the first three quarters [1][5] - The refrigerant quota policy is expected to remain stable, transitioning from annual to quarterly pricing, which will facilitate more frequent performance realization [1][5] Cooling Liquid Market - The cooling liquid market is categorized into three types: water-based, oil-based, and fluorinated liquids, with fluorinated liquids showing promising applications in immersion cooling [1][6] - Companies like Juhua and Yonghe have already established a good layout in fluorinated liquids, positioning them for better growth as demand for liquid cooling increases [1][6] Price Trends and Expectations - Refrigerant prices are likely to see a slight increase starting in November due to year-end rigid demand and the exhaustion of annual quotas [1][7] - The natural gas market is under pressure due to the predicted La Niña phenomenon and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with a projected increase in consumption as winter approaches [2][8] Investment Opportunities - The chemical industry is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 2.2, indicating potential for upward movement [3][9] - Investment opportunities are identified in the refrigerant, natural gas, and phosphate industry chains, particularly influenced by the demand for electric vehicle batteries [3][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on November 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index falling close to 3% [2] - The gas sector showed resilience, with notable stocks such as Shengli Co. achieving a four-day consecutive rise, and others like Guo Xin Energy and Changchun Gas hitting the daily limit [2] Weather Impact - A cold wave is expected from November 14 to November 17, with local temperature drops exceeding 12°C, leading to the lowest temperatures of the year in many regions [2] - By November 17, the highest temperature line of 0°C will move southward to areas including northern Shaanxi, northern Shanxi, northern Hebei, and northern Liaoning [2] Natural Gas Market Insights - Guojin Securities reported an increased probability of the La Niña phenomenon, which may lead to a sharp drop in winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere [2] - Current European natural gas inventories are at a median level, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices in Asia and Europe [2] - Long-term trends indicate a gradual easing of supply and demand in the global LNG market, potentially lowering gas prices and enhancing the profitability of downstream gas sales [2]