地缘扰动与弱美元共振，⾦银再度加速 上⾏ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-27 在地缘⻛险与美元信⽤担忧主导下，贵⾦属近期强势上⾏。⻩⾦短期延续 强势但⾼位波动⻛险放⼤，中⻓期上涨逻辑未改；⽩银凭借更强弹性短期 加速上涨后或转⼊⾼位震荡，但需警惕快速上涨后的回撤⻛险。两者均需 关注地缘局势、美联储政策变化等⻛险因素。（以上数据与新闻均来⾃万 得数据终端） 黄金观点 短期延续强势上行，地缘风险与美元信用逻辑主导，需关注高位波动 放大风险。 逻辑： 1月26日金银价格再度大幅拉升。截至国内收盘，沪金上涨3. 67%，伦敦金现日内突破5100美元/盎司，刷新历史高位。1月以来， 美国与南美、欧洲及伊朗相关冲突频繁，地缘风险持续外溢，市场对 美元信用的担忧有所升温。在美国股债汇同步走弱的背景下，贵金属 的避险与再定价属性阶段性占优，成为金价上行的重要驱动。（以上 数据及新闻均来自万得数据终端） 展望：在地缘冲突反复、美元信用叙事强化及美联储独立性风险抬升 的背景下，黄金中长期上涨逻辑未改，短期需警惕高位波动放大与情 绪过热后的技术性修正。 白银观点 短期延续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently affected by geopolitical disturbances and a weak US dollar, platinum and palladium prices have significantly increased with the precious metals sector [1]. - The short - term trends of platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillatingly strong, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities, but should be wary of increased short - term price volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 744.7 yuan/gram, with a 9.68% increase [1]. - Main logic: Geopolitical and trade frictions have damaged market confidence in US government policy stability and US dollar credit. The strengthening of the Japanese yen has also pressured the US dollar. The nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations for platinum and palladium are key market factors. In the future, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [2]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, as the supply - demand fundamentals are healthy and the macro - expectations are positive [2]. Palladium - As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 534.8 yuan/gram, with a 7.17% increase [1]. - Main logic: Besides the weak US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia has not been released, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate cut cycle support the bottom of the palladium price [3]. - Outlook: Oscillatingly strong, due to the spot shortage and relatively favorable macro - environment [3]. Index Information - On January 26, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was presented, including the commodity index (2503.03, +1.13%), the commodity 20 index (2879.55, +1.44%), and the industrial products index (2369.84, +0.40%) [49]. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 26, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.07%, a 5 - day increase of +1.31%, a 1 - month increase of +7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of +5.37% [51].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report 2026 - 01 - 27 [1] - Researcher: Zhong Junxuan, Precious Metals Researcher, Qualification No.: F03112694, Trading Consultation No.: Z0022090 [2] Group 2: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) rose 1.49% to 1,148.14 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (SHFE) rose 9.93% to 29,005.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was reported at 5,015.60 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was reported at 103.24 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.22%, and the US Dollar Index was reported at 97.07 [2] - US Q3 PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.5%; Q3 core PCE price index quarterly -环比 annualized value was 2.9%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US November core PCE price index year - on - year value was 2.8%, in line with expectations. The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9, lower than the expected 52; January S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected 52.8; the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the expected 53 [3] Group 3: Strategy Views - The previous strong performance of gold and silver prices reflects concerns about the US dollar credit and the stability of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and their price increases have a solid macro - driving force [3] - The outflow of COMEX inventory caused by the suspension of US tariffs cannot ease the tight spot situation of silver. The current volatility of silver futures is also at a historical high. In the short term, attention should be paid to the callback risk, and it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1,060 - 1,150 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 23,690 - 27,000 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Key Data Summary Gold - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5,004.80 dollars/ounce (up 0.44% from 4,983.10), trading volume was 42.18 million lots (up 54.13% from 27.37), and the position was 52.80 million lots (up 0.10% from 52.75) [5] - LBMA Gold: The closing price was 5,090.80 dollars/ounce (up 2.92% from 4,946.25), and the inventory was 1,118 tons (down 0.56% from 1,124) [5] - SHFE Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 1,143.32 yuan/gram (up 2.48% from 1,115.64), trading volume was 57.94 million lots (up 33.67% from 43.35), position was 38.08 million lots (up 3.96% from 36.63), inventory was 103.03 tons (up 1.00% from 102.01), and the settled funds were 69.664 billion yuan (inflow of 6.54% from 65.389 billion) [5] - AuT + D: The closing price was 1,144.26 yuan/gram (up 3.05% from 1,110.35), trading volume was 82.85 tons (up 52.67% from 54.27), and the position was 218.35 tons (up 4.81% from 208.32) [5] Silver - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 103.89 dollars/ounce (up 0.61% from 103.26), the position was 15.20 million lots (up 0.33% from 15.15), and the inventory was 12,915 tons (down 0.28% from 12,952) [5] - LBMA Silver: The closing price was 109.61 dollars/ounce (up 10.71% from 99.00) [5] - SHFE Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 27,207.00 yuan/kilogram (up 8.98% from 24,965.00), trading volume was 237.63 million lots (up 29.68% from 183.24), position was 73.05 million lots (up 3.07% from 70.88), inventory was 573.81 tons (down 1.25% from 581.09), and the settled funds were 53.664 billion yuan (inflow of 12.33% from 47.774 billion) [5] - AgT + D: The closing price was 27,513.00 yuan/kilogram (up 10.10% from 24,988.00), trading volume was 702.20 tons (up 61.02% from 436.09), and the position was 3,360.232 tons (up 2.05% from 3,292.636) [5] Group 5: Price - Related Charts - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious metals prices (such as COMEX Gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX Silver, Shanghai Silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors over different time periods, including historical price trends, price - volume relationships, and price structures of near - and far - month contracts [10][20][25] Group 6: Internal - External Price Difference Gold - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 86.87 dollars/ounce; for SGE - LBMA, the SGE - LBMA spread was 93.56 dollars/ounce [45] Silver - On January 26, 2026, for SHFE - COMEX, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 18.68 dollars/ounce [45]

新闻 早上好，先来关注下黄金和白银。 26日晚， 白银价格加速上涨。伦敦银现货价格涨幅扩大至12%，纽约期银主力合约涨逾16%。 不过，今天凌晨，黄金与白银价格大幅回调，伦敦银现货价格转跌，报约103美元/盎司，此前最高触及117美元/盎司。伦敦金现货价格同样转跌，一度跌破 5000美元/盎司，此前在5100美元/盎司附近运行。 92.231 08:00 开启您的 T+0黄金账户>> 其全 黄金与白银在刷新历史高点后大幅回调 置顶 同花顺7x24快讯 05:24 现货白银站上11美元/盎司 置顶 同花顺7×24快讯 01-26 22:53 国际金价突破5100美元 贵金属高位震荡加剧馆 投资 期货开 加自元 网 同花顺 App 05:57 N 5110.320 昨收 5000.030 % 4983.940 买价 -38.810 -0.77% 开 5038.870 卖价 相关 ETF 2 T+0 金 ETF嘉实 2 同花顺黄金 2 银行金价 1141.75 日K 月K 王日 分时 周K 童零 最新: 5000.030 -38.810 -0.770% 5110.320 4967.360 08:00 开启您的 T+ ...

这是金融史上前所未有的时刻——自1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来，现货黄金首次站上5000美元/盎司的门槛。回望过去，现货黄金 用了不到一年时间，价格从约3000美元/盎司飙升至近5000美元/盎司，涨幅超60%。 视觉中国图 回溯过去，历史上的几轮黄金牛市一般维持10年左右。市场多数认为本轮黄金牛市从2019年起，若以此计算，已经走过7个年头，它还 能持续多久？将以何种形式收场？ 业内人士认为，牛市的结束或许要等到新型国际秩序框架渐趋明朗，以及新的强势国际货币崭露头角。至于美国能否重塑美元信用， 关键在于其科技吸引力能否保持，而备受期待的人工智能，距离在下游应用场景形成规模或仍需时日。 多重力量共振推高金价 每经记者｜李玉雯 每经编辑｜陈 旭 金价势如破竹，1月26日，现货黄金开盘即站上5000美元/盎司大关，盘中一度突破5100美元/盎司。截至1月26日20时许，现货黄金价格 在5089美元/盎司附近震荡。 截至1月26日，国际金价已连续3周强势上攻，单周最大涨幅超8%，形成清晰的上升通道。从技术形态看，4500美元~5000美元/盎司区 间已实现突破，5000美元/盎司成为新的多空分水岭。 中信建投期货 ...

金价势如破竹，截至1月26日，已冲破5000美元/盎司大关。 这是金融史上前所未有的时刻——自1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来，黄金首次站在"5000美元"的门槛。回望过去，黄金用了不到一年时间，价格从约 3000美元/盎司飙升至近5000美元/盎司，涨幅超60%。仅今年以来，金价的涨幅就已经超过16%。 本轮黄金牛市开启以来金价走势 回溯过去，历史上的几轮黄金牛市一般维持十年左右。市场多数认为本轮黄金牛市从2019年起，若以此计算，已经走完7个年头，它还能持续多久？将以 何种形式收场？ 业内人士认为，牛市的结束或许要等到新型国际秩序框架渐趋明朗，以及新的强势国际货币崭露头角。至于美国能否重塑美元信用，关键在于其科技吸引 力能否保持，而备受期待的人工智能，距离在下游应用场景形成规模或仍需时日。 黄金冲关5000美元/盎司 截至今日（1月26日），国际金价已连续三周强势上攻，单周最大涨幅超8%，形成清晰的上升通道。从技术形态看，4500~5000美元/盎司区间已实现突 破，5000美元/盎司成为新的多空分水岭。 自2025年1月以来的金价走势 一是美元信用加速弱化，全球储备结构深刻重构。美债规模突破38万亿美元 ...

广州期货 贵金属价格或偏强运行 国信期货 金银或延续震荡偏强格局 消息面上，特朗普宣称将取得格陵兰岛美军基地"主权"，并考虑对古巴石油实施海上封锁，同时美国对 伊朗相关实体实施新一轮制裁并在印度洋部署航母，系统性风险急剧攀升。与此同时，市场对美元信用 的担忧持续发酵：美国财政部被曝已初步准备干预汇市，叠加IMF报告显示美元全球储备占比跌破 60%，这些信号共同动摇了美元资产的底层信用，强化了黄金的货币替代逻辑。此外，美国政府停摆风 险再起，也为市场增添了不确定性。整体而言，金银或延续震荡偏强格局。COMEX黄金价格在突破整 数关口后，技术上下一目标位可上看5100美元/盎司附近。COMEX白银价格在资金推动下仍保持强势， 有望挑战110美元/盎司附近。操作上，建议轻仓多单持有。 广州期货：贵金属价格或偏强运行 1月26日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至28226.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合 约报27306.00元，涨幅13.19%。 美国明尼阿波利斯市1月24日再次发生移民执法枪击事件，参议院少数党领袖Chuck Schumer表示鉴于该 事件的严重性，如果拨款法案中包含对美国国土安全部的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by increasing risk aversion and weakening dollar credit, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and growing demand for gold investments [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Risk aversion has intensified, leading to a surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - The trend of weakening dollar credit is accelerating in the short term, supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to sustain upward pressure on precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The macroeconomic uncertainties abroad continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] - The weakening dollar credit narrative has become clearer since Trump's administration, enhancing gold's monetary properties [1] - A long-term bullish outlook on gold prices is maintained, with expectations for a continued upward movement in the price center [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

金价势如破竹，截至1月26日，已冲破5000美元/盎司大关。 这是金融史上前所未有的时刻——自1971年布雷顿森林体系瓦解以来，黄金首次站在"5000美元"的门槛。回望过去，黄金用了不到一年时间，价格从约 3000美元/盎司飙升至近5000美元/盎司，涨幅超60%。仅今年以来，金价的涨幅就已经超过16%。 本轮黄金牛市开启以来金价走势 自2025年1月以来的金价走势 中信建投期货分析师王彦青在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访时表示，虽然黄金价格突破5000美元/盎司关口具有一定的象征意 义，但鉴于历史金价持续上涨及当前美元信用下降、全球货币体系变革等利好因素仍然稳固，5000美元/盎司可能不会构成重大障碍。"黄金价格上涨的主 因在于全球大变局中，美国地位衰落、中美竞争及美国债务问题导致市场对美元信任度下降，支撑黄金长期上行。" 综合业内观点来看，支撑这轮上涨的并非短期投机，而是多重力量的深度共振。 一是美元信用加速弱化，全球储备结构深刻重构。美债规模突破38万亿美元、政治极化削弱美联储独立性以及地缘冲突引发的"武器化金融"担忧，正在不 断侵蚀美元信用，其"储备货币"地位摇摇欲坠。 二是各国央行 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 美国政府再度面临停摆风险，当前临时拨款法案将于1月30日到期，而国会两党在国土安全部拨款问题 上陷入僵持。由于明尼苏达州近期连续发生联邦执法人员致命枪击事件，多名民主党参议员明确表示将 反对包含国土安全部预算的综合拨款法案。鉴于参议院通过法案需至少60票赞成，而共和党仅占53席， 若民主党团结反对，法案通过难度极大，去年10月的停摆局面或将重演。不过为了降低全面停摆的冲 击，众议院此次采取了策略性举措，他们把法案拆分成了两部分，一部分两党已达成高度共识通过，另 一部分则是勉强通过。所以如果这次再次陷入停摆，那么潜在带来的影响可能会比去年10月小，但也仍 需要注意情绪上的炒作风险。 最后，本周四（1月29日）凌晨03：00，美联储将公布2026年首场FOMC议息会议决议，市场普遍预期 将维持利率在3.50%-3.75%区间不变。尽管此次会议大概率按兵不动，但鉴于主席鲍威尔的任期将持续 至5月，其仍将主持后续3月与4月的议息会议，因此投资者需重点关注其在新闻发布会中对经济前景的 定调以及对后续货币政策路径的前瞻指引，这些表述将为上半年的利率决策奠定 ...