基本面： 周四（12月18日）亚盘时段，现货黄金继续震荡于本周区间内未能突破并进一步收窄，目前暂交投于4332美元附近。受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预 期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）现货黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报每盎司4338 美元附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同时，白银价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。 尽管美元周三上涨，但今年迄今已下跌约9.5%，创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅。这一弱势为黄金提供了支撑，因为黄金以美元计价，美元贬值往往推高金 价。美国债市收益率持稳也反映了市场的观望情绪。两年期国债收益率上涨0.8个基点至3.487%，10年期国债收益率基本不变于4.149%。由于联邦政府停摆 43天导致数据延迟，经济指标的可信度降低，美联储不太可能很快降息，联邦基金利率期货显示1月降息概率仅为24%。但整体而言，美联储的鸽派倾向仍 为主导。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日录得小实体收盘表现胶着，盘中曾尝试下探4300关口获得支撑并维持短期高位区域报收，暗示市场短期仍有望挑战新高， ...

今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于66.17一线上方，今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报66.41美元/盎司，上涨0.35%，最高触及66.50美元/盎司，最低下探65.54美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 目前市场聚焦数据与地缘风险，如果CPI和PCE数据确认通胀降温，降息预期将进一步升温；若委内瑞 拉局势升级成冲突，避险需求将爆炸式增长。但需警惕美元反弹和美联储内部分歧带来的下行风险。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 异同移动均线(MACD)随着直方图的扩大转为正值，表明上行压力增强。然而，看涨趋势依然强劲，白 银在短期内有相当大的机会获得额外的上行动力。 上行通道的顶部66.80美元区域可能会对多头构成挑战。该水平上方的下一个目标位是10-11月反弹的 261.8%斐波那契延伸位68.30美元，之后是70.00美元水平。 下行方面，近期支撑位位于之前的历史高位64.72美元，随后是接近63.30美元的趋势线支撑位，以及12 月12日低点约60.80美元。 【要闻速递】 尽管美元周三上涨，但今年迄今已下跌约9.5%，创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅。这 ...

12月17日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中升至7.0409，再创近14个月新高，这已是连续3个交易日刷新"纪 录"。在人民币升值预期下，海外资金对中国资产配置兴趣明显增长。 当日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0573元。今年 以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅已超过1000个基点。目前，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双站在7.04附 近。 对于近期人民币兑美元汇率连续上行的原因，多位研究人士表示，人民币本轮升值尚未结束，年末季节 性结汇需求可能进一步推升人民币汇率，人民币兑美元本轮升值可能突破7。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，一是12月11日美联储降息前后，美元指数持续下行，跌破100，这 带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍出现升值；二是，年底临近，企业结汇需求增加，也会带动人民币 季节性走强，特别近期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能在加速释放。 当前，海外资金对于美联储降息周期下，配置非美元资产和大宗商品的动力增强。12月17日，全球黄 金、白银等贵金属持续保持上涨态势，纽约COMEX白银主力合约盘中突破66美元/盎司，年内涨幅超 125%；纽约NYMEX铂金主力 ...

January soybeans are presently in a three-week-old price downtrend on the daily bar chart. That’s keeping the speculator bears confident that prices will continue to trade sideways to lower in the near term. Recent U.S. soybean sales to China, as reported by the USDA, have not been that supportive for soy complex futures prices because that news has already been factored into prices following the U.S.-China trade truce several weeks ago that outlined more China purchases of U.S. soybeans. In fact, soy trade ...

Group 1 - Barclays has significantly raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's short-term bond purchases in 2026 to $525 billion, up from a previous estimate of $345 billion, indicating a sharp decline in net supply of short-term bonds available to private investors [1] - Mizuho Securities economists noted that Japan's central bank's short-term survey shows that the diffusion index for large manufacturers remains at +15 for the next three months, suggesting reduced concerns over Trump's tariffs [1] - Morgan Stanley's G10 FX strategy head predicts that the dollar may weaken by 5% in the first half of next year as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan forecasts that the Federal Reserve will maintain monthly bond purchases of $40 billion until mid-April next year, with total secondary market purchases expected to reach $490 billion for the year, leading to a reduction in net issuance of short-term bonds to $274 billion [1] - Citigroup analysts believe that despite high expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, upcoming employment and inflation data may alter policy expectations, indicating uncertainty in actual decision-making [3] - Goldman Sachs warns that if Haslett becomes the Federal Reserve chair, the policy may shift towards tolerating an "overheating economy," which could structurally weaken the dollar [2]

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22170 | 200 | -175 | 775 | 1580 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21775 | ー | l | l | ー | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2875 | -20 | -26 | 30 | 282 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 229202 | 39321 | -32360 | 35853 | 104679 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 314803 | 20227 | 69468 | 89667 | 80901 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 22871 | 2430 | 120 | 2658 | 11433 | | LME注销仓单占比 | 6. 74% | 0. 31% | -1. 38% | -1. 16% | 3. 81% | | LME %cash-3M 价差 | -26. 68 | 0. 00 | 2. 54 | -19. 22 | -26. ...

本号在11月5日"重估黄金储备可行吗"那期里提过，川宝团队有重估镁国黄金储备的想法，甚至还有团 队成员想出售部分黄金储备；1999年至2002年间英国央行抛售了一半黄金储备，以应对财政赤字和公共 债务压力，导致金价一度暴跌32%。 李蓓还提到，未来人民币在国际储备中的角色可能上升，会部分替代对黄金的需求。确实，美元贬值时 的替代选项并非只有黄金一个，其他国家的货币和多种资产都可以作为替代选择，虽然它们各有不同的 优势和局限性。 金价自2019年进入牛市以来涨幅巨大，那时伦敦现货黄金才约1300美元一盎司，现在已经4300美元了， 有看涨到5000美元的，还有看涨到2万美元的，还有专家在4500美元时清仓了的，到底会怎样呢？观大 势，敏于时，我是敏时大观，听我细聊。 11月28日的峰会上，经济学家洪灝和投资专家李蓓都表示已高位卖掉黄金了。洪灝认为金价在经历大幅 上涨后已形成巨大的价格动能泡沫，需要时间消化。这很有道理，美元贬值、地缘冲突、央行买金等逻 辑早就被定价了。 地缘冲突如果没有在好转的话，也没有在恶化，顶多算僵持；镁国财政纪律松弛，公共债务高企，长期 来看美元将大幅贬值，川宝和鲍师傅的分歧以及关于美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market stocks are expected to outperform developed market stocks for the first time in five years, driven by a weaker dollar and high valuations in the U.S. stock market, leading to renewed interest in these markets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of November, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 27% in USD terms and 25% in local currency terms, outperforming the MSCI Developed Markets Index, which increased by 19% and 16% respectively [4]. - The Bovespa Index in Brazil and the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index in South Africa both saw a 50% increase in 2025, highlighting significant gains in emerging markets [6]. - The South Korean Composite Stock Price Index increased by 60% when converted to USD, despite the KRW/USD exchange rate remaining stable [6]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Investors are becoming sensitive to their low holdings in emerging market stocks and are beginning to shift funds towards these markets [8]. - Technology stocks are driving the rise in emerging market equities, with significant gains seen in companies like China's Zhongji Xuchuang, which increased over fourfold due to its products being used in NVIDIA's GPU servers [8]. - Other notable performers include SK Hynix in South Korea and PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk in Indonesia, which tripled in value amid rising energy demands [8]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The monetary easing policies across various countries are expected to positively impact economies and corporate performance in the future, with diversification into U.S. assets being a mid-term theme [9]. - Emerging market companies account for over 30% of global corporate revenues, indicating significant growth potential despite their representation in global indices being only about 10% [9]. - Analysts suggest that undervalued small-cap stocks in emerging markets, which have lower correlation with developed markets, present attractive diversification opportunities [9].

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, predict that the US dollar will resume its downward trend next year as the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness Predictions - The dollar experienced its largest decline since the early 1970s in the first half of this year due to market turmoil caused by President Trump's trade war, but has stabilized over the past six months [1]. - Strategists expect the dollar to weaken again by 2026, driven by the Fed's continued implementation of loose monetary policy while other major central banks maintain or gradually increase interest rates [1][6]. - A consensus forecast compiled by Bloomberg predicts that a widely tracked dollar index will depreciate by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The anticipated decline in the dollar is expected to have a chain reaction on the overall economy, leading to increased import costs, higher value of overseas profits for companies, and a boost in exports [6]. - The weakening dollar may be welcomed by the Trump administration, which has consistently complained about the US trade deficit [6]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Currency Trends - The flow of funds into emerging markets for higher yields has led to the largest returns from carry trades since 2009, with JPMorgan and Bank of America optimistic about further appreciation of emerging market currencies [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that as economic data from multiple countries improves, market expectations for currencies like the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar are being revised upward [7]. Group 4: Diverging Economic Outlooks - Some contrarian investors believe the dollar may appreciate against certain major currencies, citing the strong performance of the US economy, particularly driven by the AI boom [7]. - Citigroup and Standard Chartered analysts suggest that the growth in the US economy will attract significant investment inflows, potentially boosting the dollar's value [7]. Group 5: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve has raised its economic growth forecast for 2026, indicating a potentially better-than-expected economic outlook, despite announcing a 25 basis point rate cut and plans for another cut next year [8]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell alleviated market concerns about a shift towards tightening monetary policy, emphasizing the focus on the weak labor market and inflation above target levels [8].

直接直线上涨，最高4286遇阻小幅调整。 面临4300关口，进入短期调整。 黄金横盘整理，围绕4200多空激战后，多头大爆发，直接坐火箭起飞，终于突破。一路狂飙80美金，强 势归来，再战4300的关口。 昨天4235附近，再次空获利。 今天的走势 昨晚多头搏击，涨破4264阻力。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，鲍威尔给市场情绪降温，特别是通胀和资本市场的过热现象，持续模糊谨慎表态，淡化美联储 未来的利率的路径。更重要的是11月数据集体缺失，明年降息降温，黄金冲高回落调整。 另外一方面，美联储继续扩表，特别是降息25基点，又开启了宽松。更重要的是美失业金与上周反差极 大，创单周最大增幅，意外显示美经济疲软的迹象，美元持续贬值跳水，利好黄金上演大幅反弹。 下方可调整空间，看回踩4250的位置。 此位置支撑有效，再次反弹，继续看涨为主。 上方再次破高，看向4300的关口，或一度续涨，看4380的历史高位。 当然了，高位流动的真空区域。 特别是急涨之下，随着调整持续，可调整空间加大，下方再次跌破了4250，下方继续看向4220的支撑。 黄金11月收官后，12月深陷100美金，连续2周的横盘整理后。再次上破，多头爆发，强势不 ...