Group 1 - Gold, silver, and copper prices reached historical highs on January 29, with gold futures rising to $5626 per ounce, silver to $121 per ounce, and LME copper to $14527 per ton, driven by increased market concerns over potential military actions against Iran [1][3][4] - The price of silver increased by over $8 (7%), while LME copper futures saw a rise of more than $1400 (11%) compared to the previous day [3] - Despite the highs, there was a significant drop in prices on January 29, with gold falling over $200 from the previous day, attributed to profit-taking by investors and losses in U.S. tech stocks [6] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, are perceived as a "real risk," leading to increased investment in gold as a safe asset, with buying interest expanding to silver and copper [7] - The U.S. dollar index is at a four-year low, contributing to the rise in commodity prices, as most demand for these commodities is outside the U.S. [8] - Future price expectations for gold, silver, and copper remain optimistic, with short-term adjustments expected due to recent price surges, while supply shortages are anticipated to support copper prices [9]

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD opened lower at 6.9530, compared to the previous closing of 6.9460 [1] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 6.9480 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The central parity rate of RMB against USD was adjusted up by 93 basis points to 6.9678 [1] Group 2 - The recent rapid depreciation of the USD is attributed to expectations of currency intervention in the short term and a long-term decline in USD credit [1] - Recent statements from US and Japanese officials indicate intentions to stabilize exchange rates, particularly to prevent excessive depreciation of the yen [1] - Trump's comments on the recent decline of the USD suggest he is not concerned and believes he can influence the exchange rate significantly [1] Group 3 - The deterioration of USD credit is highlighted by the White House's criminal lawsuit against the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating increased intervention [1] - Tensions surrounding the sovereignty issue of Greenland have further deepened the rift with European countries, undermining the foundation of the USD system [1]

不过，美元走弱也伴随着潜在的成本压力。由于美元购买力下降，美国从海外进口商品的成本会相应提高。数据显示，美国去 年11月进口商品总额为3489亿美元，较出口商品高出568亿美元，显示出美国对进口商品仍保持较高依赖度。 在这种背景下，美元贬值可能推高从电子产品到汽车等多类商品的价格水平，从而形成"进口型通胀"的传导效应。即便部分商 品在关税或产业政策影响下回流本土生产，市场普遍认为美国整体进口规模短期内仍难以明显下降。 在通胀层面，美国价格水平本身仍存在一定压力。去年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，高于美联储设定的2% 长期目标。如果美元进一步走弱并带来额外的价格上行压力，通胀回落的节奏可能受到影响。 近期，美元持续走弱正在成为市场关注的重要变量。尽管特朗普近期对外表示美元"表现很好"，但从数据来看，美元指数的走 势仍显示出一定的下行压力。 按六种主要货币构成的美元指数计算，美元本月已下跌约2.1%，而去年全年累计跌幅超过9%。如果这一趋势延续，美元变化可 能通过通胀和货币政策渠道，对美国经济产生更广泛的影响。 从政策逻辑上看，美元走弱在一定程度上有助于提升美国出口产品的价格竞争力。当美元贬 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly against the US dollar, with the onshore and offshore yuan breaking the 7 mark, driven by multiple factors including policy guidance, seasonal factors, and the depreciation of the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has provided ample space for the yuan's appreciation, becoming a core driver of its strength [4]. - The dollar index fell by 9% last year, marking its worst performance since 2017, influenced by former President Trump's comments on the dollar's volatility [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to expectations of future rate cuts, further weakening the dollar's appeal [6]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - The steady recovery of China's economic fundamentals and precise policy guidance have provided solid internal support for the yuan's exchange rate [7]. - China's GDP reached 140 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, which has improved global market confidence in the yuan [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as year-end currency settlement peaks and proactive foreign exchange sales by export enterprises, have created a positive supply-demand cycle, driving the offshore yuan's appreciation [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Increased demand for yuan due to enterprises accelerating their dollar sales to meet year-end financial obligations has further strengthened the yuan [8]. - In December 2025, banks recorded a net settlement of $99.93 billion, a new high, indicating strong corporate demand for yuan [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the yuan will continue to exhibit a trend of stable appreciation and two-way fluctuations, with short-term upward momentum supported by ongoing corporate settlement demands and global capital flows into yuan assets [9]. - The long-term trajectory of the yuan will ultimately depend on the continuous improvement of China's economic fundamentals, with potential upward pressure on the yuan's international status [9].

Core Viewpoint - The decline of the US dollar amidst stable performance in US equity and bond markets indicates that international investors are increasing their hedging against depreciation rather than selling off US assets [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by approximately 2% in January, marking its worst monthly performance since June of the previous year and nearing a four-year low [1][3]. - Concerns over renewed trade tensions due to President Trump's attempts to acquire Greenland and rumors of intervention to support the yen are contributing factors to the dollar's decline [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Federated Hermes' Senior Portfolio Manager John Sidawi noted that foreign investors appear to be hedging their US holdings instead of directly selling them, which is a key consideration for the company's bearish outlook on the dollar [1][3]. - Observers suggest that the divergence between rising US stocks and bonds and the declining dollar is due to investors purchasing derivatives to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Sidawi anticipates that the current trend will continue to exert pressure on the dollar through 2026, potentially leading to deeper questions about the long-term value of this major global reserve currency [2][5]. - If the dollar's weakness persists into the following year, it may indicate a weakening of the dollar's long-standing dominance [2][5].

Core Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index has dropped to 96, marking an almost 11% decline over the past year, which is the lowest level in four years, raising concerns about the implications for the economy [1][6] - President Trump has expressed that he is "not concerned" about the dollar's decline, despite its potential impact on imports, fuel costs, and interest rates [1][2] Economic Factors - The dollar's weakness is attributed to global investor skepticism regarding U.S. dollar-denominated assets, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions [2] - As of Q3 2025, approximately 57% of global foreign-exchange reserves are held in dollars, indicating its continued dominance despite a gradual decline [3] Market Reactions - Analysts have noted a "Sell America" trend, where investors are offloading U.S. stocks, bonds, and dollars, leading to a surge in gold prices, which reached over $5,500 an ounce, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets [4][6] Impact on Consumers - A weaker dollar is expected to increase costs for imported goods, fuel, and interest rates on loans, affecting various aspects of consumer finances [5][7] - The Trump tariffs have already raised prices on electronics, clothing, and vehicles, and a weaker dollar will exacerbate these costs [7] Investment Strategies - To mitigate the effects of dollar instability, diversifying into non-dollar assets like international stocks and bonds is recommended, as evidenced by the MSCI All Country World ex-USA Index's 29% gain in 2025 compared to the S&P 500's 17% [5][9] - Alternative stores of value, such as gold and silver, are suggested as hedges against dollar weakness, although their high prices may pose risks if the dollar strengthens [9]

利率维持在3.5%到3.75%之间，还是那副按兵不动的德行。 这虽然符合大家伙的预期，但我查了下路透社最新的数据，美元指数不仅没被这一声"不动"给托住，反而一头扎进了四年的深坑里，1月26 日那会儿就已经跌到了去年9月以来的最低水平，今年开年不到一个月，美元已经跌了快2.3%。 我纳闷的是，鲍威尔这次说话的语气，硬得让人想隔着屏幕给他递个扩音器。他在记者会上直勾勾地盯着摄像头说，下一届美联储主席得和 政治划清界限。这话是说给谁听的？大家都心知肚明。 我问你个问题。你有没有发现，这几天美元的底裤好像快被拽掉了，可偏偏黄金就像吃错了药一样，死命往上窜。就在当地时间1月28日下 午，美联储那栋大楼里传出来的消息，简直让人想冷笑。 这种九连涨的架势，哪还有一点高利率压制的样子？这就是典型的避险情绪拉满。大家看着特朗普对美元贬值那副无所谓、甚至觉得很好的 态度，心里都发虚。特朗普去年12月接受采访时就说，他希望美元走弱来改善贸易逆差。总统带头看空本币，美联储主席位子又不稳，黄金 不涨谁涨？ 我昨天看到这些数据直接愣住了，感觉全球资产的定价逻辑已经完全乱了套。原本说好的高利率会吸引资金回流美国，结果现在投资者都在 系统性 ...

1月29日，贵金属市场正迎来一场前所未有的估值重估。Moneta Markets外汇认为，黄金价格在 Comex 4 月期货合约中突破 $5360.60 这一历史性高点，不仅刷新了名义价格纪录，更创下了史上最大的单日美 元增幅。这种爆发性的行情核心驱动力源于汇市中美元的步履蹒跚，诱发了市场对硬资产的极度渴望。 在宏观政策层面，美联储刚刚结束的 FOMC 会议决定按兵不动，维持 3.5% 至 3.75% 的利率区间。 Moneta Markets外汇表示，尽管联储声称经济增长稳健且失业率趋稳，但市场却敏锐地捕捉到了其对低 就业增长和持续通胀的担忧。这种政策上的"留白"给予了黄金市场极大的想象空间。与此同时，受白银 价格创纪录飙升影响，芝商所（CME）已将 Comex 白银期货保证金比例从 9% 提升至 11%，Moneta Markets外汇认为，这反映了交易所为了应对剧烈的波动性，正在强化抵押品覆盖的防御逻辑。 当前美元指数正处于四年来的低点，且经历了剧烈的单日跌幅，这在很大程度上受到行政决策层对汇率 贬值默许态度的影响。Moneta Markets外汇表示，市场目前正在适应一种"美元走弱与经济增长并存"的 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: On January 29, 2026, copper prices increased with rising positions, breaking through the upper limit of the trading range since January. The trading volume of SHFE copper reached 700,000 contracts, and the main contract price touched 110,000 yuan. LME copper reached $14,000 per ton, rising over 6,000 yuan per ton during the day. Macroscopically, the US dollar index remained weak, leading to a general increase in precious and non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 400 yuan per ton. In the short term, macro factors drove up copper prices, and the industry followed passively [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices showed a strong and volatile trend, with trading volume and prices moving in the same direction. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar index led to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, downstream buyers were hesitant, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to narrow, falling below 100 yuan per ton. Similar to copper, macro factors drove up aluminum prices, and the industry followed passively [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with rising positions in the morning and decreased with falling positions in the afternoon, showing an overall strong trend. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread continued to narrow, and the domestic February - March spread also fell below 400 yuan per ton, reflecting a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. Macro factors drove up nickel prices, and the expected supply contraction supported nickel prices, while the weak industrial reality put pressure on them [8]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 29, LME copper prices soared, hitting a record high of $13,965 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 12% this year. Other major base metals also rose, and aluminum prices reached a three - year high. The strong performance of the commodity market at the beginning of the year was due to the weak US dollar, increased demand for physical assets, and geopolitical tensions. The weak US dollar made commodities more attractive to buyers [10]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM data on January 29, the weekly ratio of molten aluminum in domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 72.64%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous week, and a cumulative decrease of 3 percentage points in January [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, month - to - month spreads, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, month - to - month spreads, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

期货公司观点 美元贬值对现在的美国很有好处，因为美国正对外打关税战，美元贬值能抵消加征关税带来的出口成本 上涨，帮美国企业抢国际市场。这也方便美国玩弄贸易威胁的组合拳，一会儿要对加拿大、韩国加征关 税，一会儿拿格陵兰岛问题讹诈欧洲，在这种情况下，政策朝令夕改让全球投资者心慌，纷纷撤离美元 资产，转头买黄金、欧元避险。 所以，美元跌得越狠，美国的的政治经济筹码就越多，妥妥的用美元贬值换自己的政治利益，把全球市 场当棋子耍。 广发期货： 美元贬值了，很多人以为是资本选择了黄金，抛弃了美元，真相其实是美国政府故意打压美元。 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值 ...