Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,776, down 2.23% for the day but up 4.47% year-to-date [1] - The US markets showed a contrasting trend, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.05% and the S&P 500 by 0.54% [1] - Asian markets faced a sell-off in commodities, with gold prices dropping below $4,400 and silver falling over 15% [3] Industry Insights - The heavy truck industry in China saw a 39% year-on-year increase in sales in January, attributed to a low base from the previous year and manufacturers meeting sales targets ahead of schedule [4] - The outlook for heavy truck demand remains optimistic, with expectations of maintaining over 1.1 million units in 2026, driven by a replacement cycle and continued government subsidies [4] Company Analysis - Gako's (1167 HK) focus on KRAS-targeted therapies positions it as a leader in the field, with a robust product pipeline and a partnership with AstraZeneca to accelerate development [4][5] - Gako's core product, JAB-23E73, is expected to achieve peak sales of $1.9 billion, highlighting its significant market potential [7] - The company has developed innovative platforms for antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), which are anticipated to enhance treatment efficacy and safety [6] Financial Projections - Gako's target price is set at HKD 10.34, based on a discounted cash flow model, reflecting its strong growth potential in the KRAS market [7] - Mindray (425 HK) is projected to see stable growth driven by its battery box and robotics businesses, with revenue forecasts for the second half of 2025 adjusted upward by 1% to HKD 137 billion [8] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 29.1% despite rising raw material costs, indicating effective cost management strategies [8] Strategic Partnerships - Stone Pharmaceutical (1093 HK) has entered a significant partnership with AstraZeneca, valued at over $18.5 billion, to advance multiple projects in weight management and diabetes [9][10] - This collaboration not only enhances Stone's pipeline but also validates its AI-driven drug discovery capabilities [9]

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 8 | | 锡：回落整理 | 9 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 12 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 12 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 黄金：释放风险 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 9 | | 锡：回落整理 | 10 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 13 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 17 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：窄幅震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 24 | | ...

特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席，引发市场对美联储与财政部关系或将调整的关注。 沃什长期批评美联储资产负债表规模过大，主张大幅缩减当前6.6万亿美元的债券持有量，并提出应与 财政部达成类似1951年"美联储-财政部协议"的新契约，以重新界定央行与财政的政策边界。 财长斯科特·贝森特持有相似立场。对冲基金投资者斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒上周向英国《金融时报》表示， 他对二人即将展开的合作感到振奋，称双方若能达成协议"将是理想局面"。德鲁肯米勒曾是贝森特与沃 什的雇主。 然而沃什的主张显然更为彻底。他呼吁推动美联储资产负债表回归2008年金融危机前的规模，实质上要 求央行大幅收缩当前因多年量化宽松而膨胀的资产持有。 缩表面临的现实障碍 据路透社分析，大幅缩减美联储持有的债券规模将面临显著结构性制约。金融现实强烈表明，这一过程 可能缓慢而艰难，甚至难以彻底实现。 然而，分析指出，大幅缩减美联储资产负债表面临多重现实挑战。历史经验表明，美联储此前任何一次 缩表尝试均引发货币市场紧张。2013年，仅暗示将逐步减少购债规模便引发了全球市场剧烈波动的"缩 减恐慌"。此外，激进缩表还可能直接推高长期利率，而贝森特此前明确将此视 ...

国外 1. 麦格理：美元暂稳但隐忧仍存 麦格理集团策略师Thierry Wizman指出，特朗普提名沃什领导美联储的决定，有助于稳定美元走势。市 场交易员或认为，这一决定意在传递延续央行制度传统的信号。然而，特朗普不太可能背离自身的信念 体系，其曾多次施压美联储降息。沃什是特朗普的家族友人，自2009年以来长期在货币政策方面为总统 提供幕后建议。这意味着当降息时机临近时，沃什或将更迅速采取行动。 2. 荷兰国际：多重压力叠加，加元或面临下行风险 荷兰国际集团分析师弗朗西斯科·佩索莱在报告中指出，若美元延续反弹势头、美墨加协定续约谈判陷 入僵局且加拿大失业率进一步攀升，加元可能走弱。美加关系与就业市场的持续恶化，可能促使市场对 加拿大央行进一步降息的预期升温。加拿大央行高度关注季度商业前景调查。即便其他经济信心指标已 开始改善，但该调查持续显示贸易不确定性是第四季度企业招聘意愿下降的主因。荷兰国际集团认为美 元兑加元仍有上行至1.36-1.37的空间。 3. CreditSights：沃什回归加剧美联储缩表争议，调控压力或转向财政部 随着凯文·沃什获得美联储主席提名，市场焦点已骤然从短期利率转向美联储6.6万亿 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market has shifted from short-term interest rate cuts to the potential aggressive "balance sheet reduction" policy proposed by Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair [3] - Warsh has been a long-time critic of the Federal Reserve's excessive balance sheet expansion, arguing it leads to "monetary dominance" and market distortions [3] - If implemented, the Federal Reserve may accelerate the reduction of its current $6.6 trillion balance sheet, which could create upward pressure on long-term interest rates, conflicting with the government's goal of lowering long-term borrowing costs [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai gold futures market saw a significant drop, with the main contract AU2606 falling by 12.31% to close at 1079 yuan per gram, breaking below the critical support level of 1180 yuan per gram [4] - The technical indicators have shifted from a bullish trend to a strong bearish dominance, with MACD green bars expanding significantly and RSI dropping to 28, indicating an oversold condition [4] - The COMEX gold price also fell to $4686 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and delayed interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, ending the bullish trend observed in January [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2月2日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9695，下调17点。 美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为84.7% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为15.3%，维持利率不变的概率为84.7%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为29.0%，维持利率不变的概率为68.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 3.0%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.5%。 美联储3月维持利率不变的概率为84.7% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储到3月降息25个基点的概率为15.3%，维持利率不变的概率为84.7%。美联 储到4月累计降息25个基点的概率为29.0%，维持利率不变的概率为68.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 3.0%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为49.5%。 机构：沃什回归加剧美联储缩表争议 调控压力或转向财政部 机构：沃什回归加剧美联储缩表争议 调控压力或转向财政部 随着凯文·沃什获得美联储主席提名，市场焦点已骤然从短期利率转向美联储6.6万亿美元的资产负债表 及其在市场中的根本角色。CreditSights投资级债券与宏观策略 ...

智通财经2月2日讯（编辑 潇湘）在美国总统特朗普考虑下一任美联储主席人选的大部分时间里，市场 争论的焦点始终围绕着特朗普挑选的"鲍威尔接班人"是否会像他所期望的那样大幅降息。 而如今，随着特朗普正式宣布提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什——这位经济学家以对央行严厉批评和其货 币政策观点同样闻名——这场辩论已骤然从短期利率走向，转向了美联储6.6万亿美元的资产负债表及 其在市场中的核心作用。 注：美联储资产负债表 多年来，沃什多次公开抨击美联储官员放任央行资产膨胀，这引发市场猜测一旦他上台可能迅速采取缩 表行动。这种传闻和预期在上周五推高了长期国债收益率，同时也导致美元大幅反弹，金银价格暴跌。 正如CreditSights投资级与宏观策略主管Zach Griffiths所言，"他(沃什)一直对美联储的资产负债表扩张， 持严厉批评的态度。" 那么，假如沃什真的在今年夏天成功上位——从鲍威尔手中接过美联储主席的帅印，他究竟可能会如何 实现其政策主张？美联储与美国政府(主要是财政部)间的职责范围、美国长期利率的走向，又会发生怎 样的变化呢？ 缩表反而能释放降息空间？ 与此同时，在货币政策的取舍方面，沃什可能也会辩称，通过收紧 ...

随着凯文·沃什获得美联储主席提名，市场焦点已骤然从短期利率转向美联储6.6万亿美元的资产负债表 及其在市场中的根本角色。CreditSights投资级债券与宏观策略主管扎克·格里菲斯指出，"他对美联储资 产负债表扩张始终持严厉批评态度。"沃什期望彻底扭转资产扩张趋势并推动其他改革。但此举将面临 复杂挑战，不仅直接影响长期利率，更将冲击全球大型金融机构日常资金拆借所依赖的核心市场。若政 策制定者同意缩表，这一举措在市场中的传导效应，可能导致美联储与政府降低长期借贷成本的目标相 悖。这可能迫使财政部或其他美国机构更深介入市场管理，而在总借款需求持续上升、国债规模早已突 破30万亿美元的当下，这种干预将面临更大挑战。PGIM指出，如果沃什所言非虚，那么调控压力将转 移到财政部身上。 ...

Market Overview - On January 31, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.36%, the Nasdaq down 0.94%, and the S&P 500 down 0.43% [1][2] - The Dow Jones index closed at 48,892.47, the Nasdaq at 23,461.82, and the S&P 500 at 6,939.03 [2] Precious Metals - Global precious metals market experienced panic selling, with spot silver dropping over 36% at one point, and gold prices falling below $5,000, with a daily decline of 12.41% from $5,400/oz to $4,709.68/oz [2][6] - COMEX gold futures fell by $447.30, a decrease of 8.35%, closing at $4,907.5/oz, while spot gold dropped nearly $500, down 9.25% to $4,880/oz [6][7] - Spot silver saw a decline of over $30, down 26.42% to $85.259/oz, and platinum fell 17.59% to $2,178.48/oz [6][7] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with the US Technology Seven Index down 0.32%. Notable declines included META and TSMC down nearly 3%, while Tesla rose by 3% [2] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with companies like Nvidia, Micron Technology, and Intel all experiencing declines of over 4% [2][4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 2.36%, with many Chinese stocks declining, including Bilibili and Li Auto down over 3% [3] - Yipeng Energy saw a dramatic increase of 3141.11% [3][4] Economic Indicators - Recent economic data from the US shows mixed signals, with December PPI rising 3.0% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [9] - The Chicago PMI for January rebounded significantly to 54, indicating unexpected expansion in manufacturing activity [9] Federal Reserve Nomination - President Trump nominated Kevin Walsh, a former Fed governor, for the next Fed chair, which may impact future monetary policy due to his hawkish stance on monetary policy [8][9]