当地时间10月15日，美股市场三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数小幅下跌，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数均上涨。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨1.7%，新东方涨逾10%，小牛电动涨逾5%。现货黄金价格涨逾1%，站上4200美元/盎司，再创历史新 高，国际原油价格小幅上涨。 据央视新闻报道，美共和党临时拨款法案再次未能在参议院获得推进。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国劳工部原定15日公布的9月消费者价格指数（CPI） 报告推迟发布。 中国资产上涨 当地时间10月15日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨0.66%、0.4%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.59%，特斯拉上涨1.38%，英伟达下跌0.11%。 银行股多数上涨，摩根大通涨逾1%，摩根士丹利涨逾4%，美国银行涨逾4%。消息面上，摩根士丹利发布第三季度业绩，第三季度净营收同比增长18%至 182.2亿美元，超出市场预期的166.4亿美元；每股收益2.8美元，同比增长约49%。其中，第三季度投行业务收入同比增长44%至21.08亿美元，股票业务收 入同比增长35%至 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Shift - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, signaling a significant shift in monetary policy [2][21]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which stood at $6.5 trillion as of October 8, 2025, is primarily composed of $2.4 trillion in currency, $3.0 trillion in reserves, and approximately $800 billion in the Treasury's general account [5]. - Powell's remarks suggest that the aggressive liquidity tightening cycle may be nearing its end, driven by concerns over economic downturn risks, particularly in the labor market [21][22]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index fell below 99, while gold prices surged to a new high of $4,189.41 per ounce, reflecting market expectations of an impending shift in liquidity conditions [15][23]. - The stock market exhibited a mixed response, with tech stocks, especially in the AI sector, facing pressure due to concerns over industry bubbles and competition, leading to declines in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices [17][19]. - Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw gains, driven by positive news from individual companies like Walmart, which announced a partnership with OpenAI [19]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Powell noted that while some key data releases were delayed due to government shutdowns, existing data suggested that economic activity might be more resilient than expected, despite a slowdown in job creation [12]. - The core PCE inflation rate rose to 2.9% in August, influenced by tariff impacts rather than broader inflationary pressures, indicating a complex economic landscape [12][22]. - The Fed's long-term plan involves normalizing the balance sheet when reserve levels are deemed sufficient, with Powell closely monitoring various indicators to support this decision [10][24].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warns of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, indicating that "the downside risks to employment have risen" [1] - Powell suggests that the Federal Reserve may soon end its long-standing efforts to reduce its balance sheet, stating that they are closely monitoring various indicators to determine if this goal has been achieved [1] - Market interprets Powell's remarks as dovish, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut at the end of October, with expectations that a rate cut is almost certain [4] Group 2 - Former President Trump escalates trade tensions by threatening to terminate business relations with China in the edible oil and other trade sectors, following complaints about China's soybean purchases [5] - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising to 4180 before a sharp drop to 4090, attributed to market rumors and trading activities related to silver [5] - Despite the fluctuations, the outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations to reach the 4200 USD mark, while cautioning against potential sudden sell-offs [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The mid - term outlook for crude oil remains bearish, and attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks during the APAG meeting at the end of the month on risk sentiment [2]. - Precious metals have a solid long - term upward logic, but in the short term, due to over - bought signs, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For most commodities, factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes have significant impacts on their prices and market trends [2][3][20] Summary by Categories Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell overnight. The market expects the Fed to continue cutting interest rates this month. The previous options combination strategy is continued [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate, and the upside space should be viewed with caution [5]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in obvious surplus, and it will mainly operate weakly [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Whether the price difference with Shanghai aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be observed [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory increased slightly. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: LME lead inventory increased, and Shanghai lead has short - term downward pressure, with support at 16,800 - 16,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel operates weakly, and the center of gravity tends to move down [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai and LME tin prices fell. Short positions can be held against 290,000 yuan, or call options with an exercise price of 300,000 yuan for the 2511 contract can be sold [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but there is a short - term callback risk [11]. - **Polysilicon**: After approaching the lower end of the range, the futures price rebounded significantly, but the upside space is still limited [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the risk of inventory accumulation is relatively high, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures price fluctuated. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded after hitting the bottom during the day. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price mainly fluctuated during the day. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [19]. Energy - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, they followed the decline of crude oil - related varieties. High - sulfur fuel oil may face medium - term supply pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [21]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The far - month contract is more under pressure [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: There is a lack of positive support [23]. - **Urea**: The market demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [24]. - **Methanol**: The main contract fell. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes and the impact of Sino - US trade disputes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price fell. The industry valuation is low, and the impact of oil prices should be noted [25]. - **Styrene**: Some local producers cut prices, and downstream procurement is cautious [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply pressure increases, and the prices are under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may fluctuate weakly, while caustic soda's downward range is expected to be limited [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The prices continued to decline. PTA's supply - demand outlook is weak [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the downward resistance increases. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade relations [30]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a supply shortage in the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait and see [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient in the long - term. It is advisable to go long after the price bottoms out [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to use rapeseed - related products as a short - side configuration in cross - competitor strategies. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [37]. - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybeans continued to rebound. Attention should be paid to policies and fundamentals [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price rebounded at the bottom. The bottom is approaching [39]. - **Pigs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. There is upward support for next year's second - half contracts [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The near - month contracts should be shorted, and the far - month contracts can be longed [41]. - **Cotton**: The demand for US cotton is expected to remain weak. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth in Guangxi [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated at a high level. It is advisable to maintain a short - side thinking [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price continued to correct. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose. Attention should be paid to port inventory changes [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: After initially digesting the price - increase expectations, the market is expected to return to fluctuations. The focus will be on the actual implementation of price support in November [20]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment fluctuates between risk - aversion and optimism. The medium - term allocation should focus on the technology growth sector, but attention should be paid to possible sector rotations [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market will gradually enter the repair stage. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [48].

| 贵金属日评20251015:美联储越发接近停止缩表或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-14 | 收盘价 | 11. 42 | 838. 98 | 927. 56 | 64. 58 | 874. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 555171.00 | 226548.00 | 328, 623. 00 | 446705.00 | 108. 466. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包重 | 228459.00 | 256876.00 | 239996.00 | -11,537.00 | -28, 417. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 72183.00 | 70728.00 | 70728.00 | 1, 455. 00 | 1, 455. 00 | 上海黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the securities sector continuing to attract significant capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The securities ETF (159841) has seen a net inflow of over 660 million yuan over the past four days [2] - The securities ETF closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, which includes both traditional securities leaders and financial technology leaders [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the government shutdown affecting economic assessments [2] - The Fed may also halt its balance sheet reduction in the coming months [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The pre-disclosure of third-quarter earnings for securities firms is beginning, with Dongwu Securities projecting a net profit of 2.748 billion to 3.023 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65% [2] - Several brokerages expect significant growth in the securities industry for the third quarter, which could drive up the sector's valuations [2][3] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Open Source Securities anticipates an expansion in net profit growth for the securities sector in the third quarter, driven by increased trading activity and margin financing [3] - The sector's fundamentals are improving, and valuations remain low, indicating a strategic allocation opportunity for institutions [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [1][5] - Powell noted that inflation and employment outlooks have not changed significantly since the September FOMC meeting, but there are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1][5] - There is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's grasp on economic conditions [1][5] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold and silver are experiencing increased volatility, with gold prices rising again due to Powell's hints at a pause in rate hikes and ongoing concerns over trade tensions [2][19] - Central banks are continuously increasing their gold reserves, reflecting growing recognition of gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions and financial system distrust [2][19] - Copper prices rose by 0.57% due to tight supply conditions, while the market sentiment is stabilizing post US-China trade tensions [2][20] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices fell by 1.73% amid geopolitical developments, including a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [3][13] - OPEC's October report predicts a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.38 million barrels per day next year, driven by strong economic activity [3][13] Group 4: Domestic Economic Measures - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of effective economic measures to ensure a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing market vitality [6] - The government aims to implement counter-cyclical adjustments and optimize consumption policies to stimulate economic growth [6] Group 5: Trade and Export Performance - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) has set new records in exhibition area and participating enterprises, indicating robust foreign trade performance [7] - China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 6% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [7]

2025.10. 15 本文字数：1970，阅读时长大约3分钟 就业放缓风险上升 鲍威尔在讲话中多次提到劳动力市场的疲态。他认为，美国正处于"低招聘、低裁员"的阶段，职位空 缺的持续下降可能很快反映在失业率上。"我们经历过一个罕见的时期——岗位需求下降但失业率保 持稳定，但这种情况可能已接近极限。" 美国失业率8月升至4.3%，为过去一年新高。由于政府停摆，9月非农就业报告被迫推迟，市场对劳 动力状况的判断更加模糊。鲍威尔表示，这种信息缺口对决策形成挑战："我们很快就会开始错过数 据，特别是10月的核心数据。如果停摆持续下去，数据甚至不会被收集。" 多 位 与 会 经 济 学 家 认 为 ， 就 业 下 行 风 险 正 成 为 美 联 储 内 部 关 注 的 焦 点 。 机 构 MacroPolicy Perspectives创始人朱莉娅·科罗纳多（Julia Coronado）表示："10月降息几乎是板上钉钉。劳动 力市场的风险并未缓解，反而在增加。" 美国咨商会高级经济学家叶莲娜·舒利亚季耶娃（Yelena Shulyatyeva）认为，美联储正从"抗通胀 优先"逐步过渡到"平衡增长与就业"的阶段。"当前 ...

鲍威尔暗示美联储将再次降息 中新社纽约10月14日电 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔14日表示，虽然政府"停摆"削弱了美联储对经 济形势的掌握程度，但美国的就业和通胀前景"似乎没有太大变化"。分析认为，这一表述暗示美联储将 在本月再次降息。 当天，鲍威尔在宾夕法尼亚州费城举行的美国全国商业经济协会年会上发表讲话称，根据美联储掌握的 数据，自9月货币政策例会以来，美国的就业和通胀前景似乎没有太大变化。经济活动的增长轨迹可能 比预期略为稳健，但就业增长已大幅放缓，通胀率则仍然略高。 鲍威尔称，就业形势的下行风险上升，改变了美联储对风险平衡的评估。美联储在9月货币政策例会上 采取更为中性的政策立场是恰当的。 在9月17日结束货币政策例会后，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4%至4.25%之间 的水平。根据当天公布的经济预测概要，联邦基金利率中值预计将在今年年底降至3.6%，意味着年内 或将再降息两次。 彭博社报道指出，鲍威尔在费城表示经济前景变化不大，被认为暗示美联储将再次降息。芝加哥商品交 易所的美联储观察工具显示，在鲍威尔讲话后，市场对美联储10月降息25个基点的预期概率接近 100%。 美联储将 ...

Group 1: Middle East Peace Agreement - The signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is seen as a precursor to a potential peace deal between Hamas and Israel, with President Trump expressing optimism about the achievement [4][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may end its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, citing deteriorating labor market expectations [7] Group 3: Citigroup Financial Performance - Citigroup reported that all five major business lines exceeded Wall Street expectations, contributing to a 9% increase in total revenue, driven by record high revenues in market, banking, services, wealth, and U.S. retail sectors [10] - The company faced rising compensation costs, with total expenses also increasing by 9% [10] Group 4: Boeing Aircraft Deliveries - Boeing delivered 55 aircraft in September, positioning the company to achieve its highest annual delivery volume since 2018 [12] Group 5: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 14th day, with the White House Budget Office planning to continue workforce reductions while ensuring military and law enforcement personnel receive pay [14] Group 6: Market Valuation Concerns - Citigroup's CFO warned of potential bubbles and overvaluation in certain sectors of the stock market, particularly in relation to artificial intelligence investments [16]