Core Insights - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) annual report indicates that the disruptive trade policies of the United States are exacerbating global inflation risks and exposing the vulnerabilities of the global economy [1] - The report suggests that a "soft landing" was achievable, but tariff threats have interrupted this process, making it more difficult for multiple countries to achieve their 2% inflation targets [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

国外 1. 大摩：预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05 今日上午，MSCI中国指数上涨，较4月低点涨幅扩大至20%。从目前的情况来看，中国股市的多头趋势 的确在增强。摩根士丹利表示，投资者尤其关注中国市场中的新技术和新商业模式，特别是新消费主题 以及人工智能/科技相关主题。对于中国在全球技术竞争中能力的提升，例如在人工智能领域的突破以 及电动车、电池、人形机器人等领域的进展，投资者也给予了更多认可，并开始重新思考在多极世界中 同时投资中美市场的策略。汇率方面，摩根士丹利已将人民币兑美元的观点从贬值转为升值。这一转变 反映了其对美元走弱的预期，预计到2026年底，美元指数可能跌至89。同时，欧元兑美元预计也将升值 超过10%。不过，摩根士丹利预计到2026年底，人民币对美元的升值幅度将相对温和，可能达到7.05。 2. 瑞银全球财富管理建议配置中国股票，看好其上涨潜力 瑞银全球财富管理认为，全球投资者应继续战略性地投资中国股票，因为贸易风险已触顶，未来可能会 有更多政策支持。其表示，在基本面改善、现有及潜在政策支持、以及人工智能的长期增长前景推动 下，中国科技股具有进一步上涨的 ...

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a rare "split," with investors aggressively pursuing risk assets while simultaneously hoarding safe-haven tools, as both the S&P 500 index and gold approach historical highs [1] - Traditionally, there is a negative correlation between the S&P 500 index and gold, but as of now, gold has increased nearly 27% this year, just 2.1% away from its historical high set on April 21 [1] - In contrast, the S&P 500 index has only risen 2.1% this year but has rebounded strongly from a significant sell-off following President Trump's announcement of comprehensive tariffs on April 2, now just 2.3% away from its historical closing record [1] Group 2 - The current market narrative reflects a conflict between optimism and fear, with the stock market pricing in AI-driven profit growth while gold is priced based on long-term structural concerns such as uncontrolled deficits and a weakening dollar [3] - Investors are seeking growth through stock purchases while simultaneously buying gold for stability, preparing for two potential outcomes [3] - The ratio of gold to the S&P 500, currently around 1.76, indicates that while it is high, it is not at extreme levels, suggesting a favorable position for gold [4] Group 3 - The gold/S&P 500 ratio was as low as approximately 1.5 in April, indicating a potential shift towards safe assets or preparation for volatility when the ratio declines [4] - Maintaining the current situation where both the index and gold reach historical highs may require a combination of lower real interest rates, dovish Federal Reserve policies, sustained demand for hard assets, ongoing confidence in long-term growth, and sufficient macroeconomic uncertainty to keep fear-driven trading active [4] - The scenario is likened to balancing two spinning plates, which may be sustainable for a time but requires continuous movement and appropriate conditions to prevent both from falling [4]

Company and Industry Updates - Apple (AAPL.US) will open its underlying artificial intelligence technology to developers, indicating a strategic move to enhance its AI capabilities and improve features like Siri [9] - Morgan Stanley has downgraded McDonald's (MCD.US) rating to hold, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company's performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategists indicate that prolonged high interest rates may negatively impact U.S. corporate borrowers as the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Impact of High Interest Rates - The expectation of a soft landing is leading to most defaults appearing as non-performing assets, with higher recovery rates [1] - However, the likelihood of a soft landing is decreasing due to inflation remaining above target, significant policy uncertainty, and rising sovereign term premiums [1] Group 2: Default Rate Projections - Deutsche Bank predicts that the default rate in speculative-grade credit could reach 5.5% around mid-next year, marking the highest level since 2012 for issuer-weighted speculative-grade default rates [1]

我们是中国的长期投资者。 摩根大通CEO戴蒙：必须为滞胀做好准备。 对持续的软着陆持怀疑态度。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to stabilize and promote long-term economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce urges the U.S. to correct its restrictive measures on Chinese chips, asserting that such actions hinder sustainable cooperation between enterprises [3] - The Ministry of Commerce reiterates that all parties involved in the sale of the port by CK Hutchison must not evade regulatory scrutiny, highlighting the importance of fair market competition [4] Group 2 - Bridgewater's latest holdings report reveals significant changes, including a substantial increase in positions in Alibaba and a new investment in JD.com, while reducing its stake in Nvidia [6] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing its policy framework to adapt to post-pandemic inflation dynamics, with potential adjustments expected to be announced in August or September [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised regulations on the use of raised funds by listed companies, emphasizing dedicated use for core business and supporting the real economy [8] Group 3 - Alibaba's latest financial report shows a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, marking a 7% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EBITA rising by 36% [21][22] - Xiaomi announces the upcoming release of its self-developed SoC chip named "Xuanjie O1," which is expected to enhance mobile performance [20] - Wahaha responds to production issues due to capacity constraints, indicating adjustments in production and outsourcing to meet market demands [23][24]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.41%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.18% [1] - Most large tech stocks declined, with Amazon and Meta down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. However, Netflix rose over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.37%, with notable declines in stocks like Alibaba and JD.com [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. may be entering a period of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, posing challenges for the economy and the central bank [2] - Powell mentioned that the Fed is adjusting its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks post-pandemic [2] - The Fed's strategy reflects a willingness to tolerate higher inflation to promote job growth, marking a significant shift in its approach [2] Economic Indicators - Powell projected that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation for April would drop to 2.2%, although external factors like tariffs could lead to price increases [2] - Recent data showed a surprising decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for April, leading traders to slightly increase bets on two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [3] - The latest retail sales figures indicated almost no growth, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending, which adds pressure to the market [3] Tariff Impact - Analysts from JPMorgan noted that tariff policies could lead to a surge in U.S. goods prices in June and July, making the Fed more cautious about potential rate cuts [3] - The ongoing tariff impacts are contributing to uncertainty and volatility in the economy, with the possibility of a recession still present according to JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the terminology of "labor market slack" to avoid interpreting low unemployment as a signal of inflation risk [2] - The Fed is adjusting its "average inflation target" framework to adapt to broader economic changes, indicating a willingness to accept higher inflation for stronger employment growth [2] - Powell anticipates that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price inflation will decrease to 2.2% in April, but tariffs may still drive prices up [3] Group 2 - The Fed is modifying its overall policy framework to address structural changes in inflation and interest rate outlook post-pandemic, with a focus on the increased instability of inflation due to rising real interest rates [4] - The evaluation of the new policy framework is expected to be completed and announced in August or September, while current interest rate decision-making will remain unchanged in the short term [4] - Powell warns that increasing supply shocks will pose significant challenges for the economy and the central bank [4]