Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for a third consecutive cut of at least 25 basis points, driven by positive inflation and economic data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron advocates for larger interest rate cuts, suggesting that the economy requires swift adjustments to reach neutral monetary policy [3][5] - The current monetary policy is seen as restrictive, contributing to a gradual increase in unemployment, which is deemed inappropriate given the economic outlook [4][12] - Myron believes that recent labor market data should encourage the committee to consider further rate cuts [5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and AI Impact - The potential impact of AI on the labor market is discussed, with concerns that job displacement could lead to disinflationary pressures and hinder employment goals [6][9] - Myron expresses optimism for the economy in 2026, citing factors such as deregulation, tax policy benefits, and trade deals that could stimulate growth [11][50] - However, he warns that tight monetary policy could undermine these positive developments and hinder labor market recovery [12][52] Group 3: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from quantitative tightening to a neutral balance sheet, with plans to replace maturing mortgages with Treasury securities to maintain market stability [25][27] - Myron emphasizes the importance of a smaller balance sheet to reduce credit and interest rate risk, advocating for a focus on Treasury bills [29] - The size of the Fed's balance sheet is influenced by regulatory requirements, which dictate the minimum reserves banks must hold [31][33] Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - Myron acknowledges that while lower interest rates could facilitate housing supply, the primary constraints are regulatory challenges at various government levels [35][36] - The influx of new residents due to immigration is identified as a factor driving up housing prices and rents, complicating supply issues [37][39] Group 5: Future Federal Reserve Sentiment - The sentiment of the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts may shift with the appointment of a new chairman, but Myron stresses the need for continued cuts to support economic recovery [60]

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，Arthur Hayes 发推表示，美联储量化紧缩预计将于 12 月 1 日停止，美国银行 11 月贷款有所 增加，流动性出现小幅改善。他认为比特币将在 9 万美元下方震荡，或再探低至 8 万美元出头，但预计 8 万美元将企稳。他称可能开始小幅加仓，但真正的大规模操作将留到明年。 来源：市场资讯 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in antimony prices, suggesting potential investment opportunities in antimony-related sectors [47][49] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes indicate a considerable division among policymakers regarding a potential interest rate cut in December, which could impact market conditions [16][19] - U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a notable increase of 119,000 jobs in September, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, which may temper rate cut expectations [18] - The extension of the artisanal mining trade ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo adds pressure to global supplies of tin, tantalum, and tungsten, critical materials for various industries [20][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 6.75%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.85 percentage points [10][11] - Key stocks showed varied performance, with Shengxin Lithium Energy leading with a gain of 12.16%, while Minfa Aluminum faced a significant drop of 25.40% [10][12] Metal Prices and Inventory Changes - Copper prices on the LME were reported at $10,778 per ton, down 0.63% week-on-week, with COMEX inventories rising by 5.66% [22][24] - Aluminum prices decreased to $2,808 per ton on the LME, with SHFE inventories increasing by 7.67% [22][24] - Zinc prices fell to $2,992 per ton, while LME inventories surged by 18.39% [23][24] Strategic Metals - Antimony prices have shown a significant increase, with the average price reaching 165,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a 16.59% rise week-on-week [47][49] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in strategic metals, particularly in light of China's easing of export restrictions on certain rare earth materials [61]

尽管标普500指数仅较历史高点回落数个百分点，但市场交易情绪已降至冰点。高盛首席交易员Brian Garrett表 示，周五虽录得100个基点的反弹，却被视为近年来"最失败"的反弹之一，交易台的氛围更像是市场跌停时的景 象。 高盛多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域：流动性随波动率上升而枯竭，标普500的Gamma值已转为负值， 防御性板块轮动加剧，系统性交易阈值被突破，波动率指标闪现恐慌信号。市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。 主经纪商账簿数据显示，总敞口已达高位，投资者继续沿着防御性板块链条调整配置，主题策略团队总结 称："客户一直处于买入罢工状态，关键主题的不确定性导致更加防御性的姿态，资金流向偏向AI板块抛售和动 量对冲。" 系统性抛压：刚刚开始 这种情绪分裂在数据上表现明显。纳斯达克100指数平均日交易区间接近3%，标普500指数超过2%，而标普500 指数期权的日均交易量已达到3.5万亿美元的历史新高，超过整个罗素2000指数的市场总值。 尽管如此，部分积极因素正在浮现。高盛指出，经济增长担忧可能被过度放大，流动性状况有望改善，AI生产 力主题在客户对话中获得更多关注。许多客户将比特币等高贝塔资产视为风 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the liquidity crisis on Wall Street, attributing it to three main factors: the U.S. Treasury's massive debt issuance, the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, and political disruptions in Congress [1][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Actions - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue over $2 trillion in new government bonds by Q3 2025 to cover its significant expenditures, which has led to a substantial cash influx into the Treasury, draining liquidity from the market [1]. - The Treasury's actions are described as a powerful "money pump" that exacerbates the liquidity crisis on Wall Street [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policies - The Federal Reserve has been engaged in quantitative tightening since 2022, allowing previously purchased assets like government bonds and MBS to mature without reinvestment, effectively withdrawing funds from the market [1][3]. - Reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve have decreased from a peak of $4.3 trillion to $2.85 trillion, nearing a critical point for the financial system [3]. Group 3: Political Factors - Congressional actions, including a recent government shutdown, have led to a pause in federal spending, further tightening liquidity as funds that should have flowed to businesses and individuals are stuck in the Treasury [3][4]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with some members advocating for liquidity injections while others prioritize inflation control, creating uncertainty in monetary policy [6]. - Short-term relief may occur as the Treasury reduces bond auction sizes and previously stalled funds are released, but a significant risk looms at year-end when banks may further restrict lending, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis [8]. - The underlying crisis is characterized as a systemic cash shortage driven by U.S. debt issues, tightening policies, and political stalemates, with implications for global financing costs and market stability [9].

美联储最新公布的消息显示，决策者们在十二月是否继续降息的问题上存在明显分歧。这揭示了美联储内部对于未来货币政策路径的激烈争论，令市场对十 二月降息的预期大幅降温。 这种分歧源于美联储内部对经济形势判断的不同。部分官员关注到劳动力市场正在逐步降温，而另一些官员则更担心通胀持续高于百分之二目标水平的问 题。核心通胀率居高不下，住房服务通胀率的下降被商品通胀率的上升所抵消，使得决策者们在平衡双重使命时面临艰难抉择。 此前政府长达四十四天的停摆进一步加剧了决策难度。关键经济数据的缺失导致决策者在十月会议上"像在大雾中开车"，只能依赖零散的私人机构数据和企 业调研。尽管部分数据已陆续恢复发布，但信息不完整的困境仍可能影响十二月的政策决定。 除了利率政策，美联储还在十月会议上讨论了资产负债表相关议题。决策者们一致同意自十二月起停止缩减美债和抵押贷款支持证券持仓的行动，结束自二 零二二年六月开始的量化紧缩进程。这一决定获得了广泛支持。 随着十二月会议的临近，美联储如何平衡这些相互矛盾的压力将成为市场关注焦点。决策者们需要在支持经济与抑制通胀之间找到恰当平衡，而内部共识的 缺乏无疑使这一任务变得更加复杂。 市场对美联储政策前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - A-share major indices tumbled this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock index futures also declined collectively, with small and mid-cap stocks performing weaker than large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market's trading activity decreased significantly compared to last week. The 10-year economic growth continued the slowdown trend of the third quarter, and some economic indicators were notably affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, but its sustainability remains to be seen. It is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, which will support the bond market [7]. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - This week, A-share major indices and four stock index futures all fell. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices moving randomly. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction this year, causing A-shares to open high and close low. On Friday, the overnight slump in US technology stocks dragged down Asian-Pacific stocks. The trading activity declined significantly compared to last week. The allocation recommendation is to go long on dips [7]. Bonds - In October, the economic growth continued to slow down, and some economic indicators were affected by the external environment. The inflation level rebounded slightly, and it is expected that the economy will continue a weak recovery in the fourth quarter, supporting the bond market. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose policy tone, and the scope for further monetary easing this year is limited. The allocation recommendation is range-bound operation [7]. Commodities - China's October economic data, especially the continuous weakening of fixed asset investment, pressured industrial products. However, gold and crude oil showed a volatile trend. The subsequent commodity index is expected to enter a wide-range oscillation. The allocation recommendation is to mainly wait and see [7]. Foreign Exchange - The US government shutdown-delayed September non-farm payroll report was controversial. Fed officials' overall tone was neutral to hawkish, potentially supporting the US dollar. The euro weakened due to the strengthening US dollar, but the eurozone's fundamental situation continued to improve. The allocation recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [7]. Important News and Events - China notified Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports. The Chinese government expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan and warned of countermeasures [13]. - Premier Li Qiang met with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, calling for free trade and reduced trade barriers, and proposed strengthening security cooperation and technological exchanges within the SCO [13]. - The Chinese and Japanese foreign affairs departments held consultations, with China expressing dissatisfaction with the results and demanding that Japan retract its wrong remarks [13]. - The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences on interest rate cuts. Most officials supported maintaining the interest rate unchanged this year, while some advocated a more relaxed rate policy. There was almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [14]. - The US modified the rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign-backed enterprises. China will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese enterprises [14]. - The Dutch government suspended the administrative order against Nexperia. China welcomed the move but hoped for a complete solution to the semiconductor supply chain issue [14]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data United States - The US 9-month unemployment rate reached 4.4%, the highest in four years. The number of new jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the previous data was revised downward. Fed officials were divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased significantly [11]. Japan - Japan's inflation continued to be high, and the yen was weak. The GDP in the third quarter shrank for the first time in six quarters, and the new government may introduce fiscal stimulus measures [11]. Eurozone - The euro fell to a two-week low due to the strengthening US dollar. The eurozone's October CPI year-on-year growth rate met the policy target, and the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2026 [11]. China - The central bank's net open market injection this week was 554 billion yuan. The 11-month LPR remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. The central bank will continue to reform and improve the LPR formation mechanism. If the fourth-quarter economic growth is significantly lower than expected, there is still room for LPR cuts [12]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Events - Next week, important economic data from Germany, the United States, the eurozone, Japan, and France will be released, including GDP, retail sales, unemployment rates, and CPI [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices tumbled collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 5%. The four stock - index futures also declined, and small - and medium - cap stocks were weaker than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The market was in a data and news vacuum from Monday to Wednesday, with stock indices showing a random walk. On Thursday, the unchanged LPR weakened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year, leading to a high - opening and low - closing situation for A - shares. On Friday, the overnight plunge in US tech stocks dragged down Asia - Pacific stock markets. Market trading activity significantly declined compared to last week. Domestically, economic fundamentals were weak in October, and financial data showed a larger decline in M1 growth than M2. The unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy, and the market is expected to be in a random walk state with stock indices remaining volatile [5][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 dropped 3.74% this week, IH2512 fell 2.77%, IC2512 declined 5.15%, and IM2512 decreased 4.80%. Spot: The CSI 300 dropped 3.77%, the SSE 50 fell 2.72%, the CSI 500 declined 5.78%, and the CSI 1000 decreased 5.80% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed a split among policymakers on last month's interest - rate cut. Many officials thought it "might be appropriate" to keep rates unchanged for the rest of 2025, while some believed a December rate cut "would likely be appropriate". There was near - unanimity on stopping the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The LPR remained unchanged on November 20. US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims last week dropped by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - Domestic: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.90%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.13%, the STAR 50 declined 5.54%, the SME 100 decreased 5.10%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 6.15%. Overseas (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 dropped 2.90%, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 1.76%, the Hang Seng Index declined 5.09%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased 3.48% [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Industry sectors all declined, with the power equipment and comprehensive sectors weakening significantly. Industry main funds generally had a net outflow, with a large net outflow from the power equipment sector and a small net inflow in the communication sector [19][23]. 3.3.3 Other Market Data - SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with the capital price at a low level. This week, major shareholders had a net secondary - market reduction of 11.471 billion yuan, and the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 100.946 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 814.515 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts converged [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - A - share major indices and the four stock - index futures declined this week. The domestic economic fundamentals were weak in October, and the unchanged LPR for six consecutive months reflected a prudent monetary policy. The market is in a vacuum of macro - data, earnings, and policies, and is expected to show a random walk with stock indices remaining volatile [87].

Domestic Highlights - Hainan's free trade port is entering the final countdown for its closure on December 18, 2025, signaling a significant step in financial openness[12] - From January to October 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 18,649 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[9] - The fiscal expenditure for the same period was CNY 22,582 billion, up 2% year-on-year, indicating a stable fiscal environment[9] - In October, the foreign exchange market showed a surplus of CNY 1,194 billion in bank settlements, reflecting strong risk resilience amid international market volatility[11] International Highlights - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q3 2025, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, primarily due to declines in exports and private housing investment[16] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding future interest rate cuts, with a 67.2% market expectation for no rate change in December[19] - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%[22] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.04% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 2.38%[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities saw a week-on-week increase of 19.89%, although first-tier cities experienced an 8.51% decline[37] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9% year-on-year in the second week of November 2025[37]