Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently breaking the 4000-point mark, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points, reaching a high of 4010.73 before closing at 3988.22, down 0.22% for the day [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw declines, closing at 13430.1 and 3229.58 respectively [1]. - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce a refinancing framework to enhance merger and acquisition support, while encouraging companies to improve governance and increase shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [2]. - The regulatory environment is perceived as stable, which is expected to boost market confidence and attract long-term capital [3]. Investment Trends - There is a notable shift towards high-dividend stocks, with some already reaching new highs, indicating a potential preference for lower valuation sectors in the fourth quarter [1][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience a "slow bull" trend, with structural differentiation remaining a key theme [5][6]. Sector Analysis - High-growth sectors such as artificial intelligence and solid-state batteries have significantly outperformed the market, but there are concerns about high valuations leading to increased volatility [4][6]. - Analysts predict a potential rotation from growth to value stocks, particularly in the financial sector, as the market focuses on valuation in the fourth quarter [6][7]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend with increased volatility, and a comprehensive rally is deemed unlikely before early 2026 [5]. - There is a consensus among analysts that technology stocks may continue to perform well, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer goods being highlighted as key areas for investment [8].

Market Overview - The A-share market achieved a breakthrough amidst fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3950 points during the week of October 20-24, 2025, reflecting a 2.88% increase [3][11] - The technology growth sector made a strong comeback in the latter half of the week, indicating market expectations for policies promoting technological self-reliance and new productive forces [3][11] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.7928 trillion yuan, showing a decline compared to the previous week, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [11] US-China Negotiations - The upcoming US-China negotiations from October 24-27 in Malaysia are viewed as a critical signal for easing trade tensions, potentially improving risk appetite in the capital markets if a summit between the leaders occurs [4][11] Style Rotation - The market is entering a phase of style equilibrium, suggesting that discussions around style rotation have largely concluded, with various sectors seeking their own changes and returning to performance-driven market characteristics [4][12] Active Equity Fund Index Performance - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 3.72% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 39.11% since inception [5][15] - The High-end Manufacturing Fund Selection Index increased by 8.47% last week, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of -2.53% since inception [6][15] - The Growth Stock Fund Selection Index saw a rise of 5.14% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 38.79% since inception [7][15] Sector-Specific Fund Performance - The Technology Stock Fund Selection Index increased by 5.79% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 51.08% since inception [7][15] - The Consumer Stock Fund Selection Index rose by 0.59% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 7.88% since inception [7][15] - The Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index decreased by 1.12% last week, but has a cumulative excess return of 20.21% since inception [7][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.24), the A - share market broke through in fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 3950 points on Friday. The technology - growth sector made a strong comeback in the second half of the week, reflecting market expectations for policies in the "15th Five - Year Plan". However, the A - share market entered a volume - shrinking phase due to macro uncertainties [12]. - If the possible upcoming summit meeting between the two heads of state materializes, the risk appetite of the capital market may be further restored [3][12]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on technological self - reliance and self - strength + expanding domestic demand. The strategic position of technology development has been significantly elevated, and expanding domestic demand is emphasized as a "strategic base point" [4][13]. - The market has entered a style - equilibrium stage, indicating that the style switch has basically ended, and the market has returned to a performance - driven structural market. Looking forward, the market may enter a consolidation period, and after November, it may be dominated by valuation [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Market performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the ChiNext Index rose 8.05%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%. The technology - growth sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment led the gains. The average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market was 1792.8 billion, a further decline from the previous week [12]. - Sino - US consultations: The consultations in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th are seen as a key signal to ease trade tensions, laying a positive foundation for a possible summit meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC meeting. Past summit meetings have effectively broken negotiation deadlocks [12]. - "15th Five - Year Plan": Compared with the "14th Five - Year Plan", it adds "centering on economic construction" and removes "deepening supply - side structural reform as the main line". The key focuses are technological self - reliance and self - strength + expanding domestic demand, with a significant increase in the strategic position of technology development [13]. - Style switch: The market has entered a style - equilibrium stage, and the style switch has basically ended. After November, the market may be dominated by valuation, and the difficulty of judging its sustainability will increase significantly [4][14]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Active Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 3.72% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.84% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the active stock fund (930980.CSI) [5][15]. - Index positioning: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. Core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, equilibrium, and growth styles, and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock - Type Fund Index [16]. 3.2.2 Value Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 1.44% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 2.93% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [6][15]. - Index positioning: It includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and equilibrium - value styles based on multi - period style division to form the index [18]. 3.2.3 Equilibrium Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 3.14% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 7.66% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects 10 funds of relatively equilibrium and value - growth styles based on multi - period style division to form the index. Fund managers in this style balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and consider cost - effectiveness at the industry level [20]. 3.2.4 Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 5.14% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 12.21% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies and selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and equilibrium - growth styles based on multi - period style division to form the index [24]. 3.2.5 Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It fell 1.12% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 19.19% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the pharmaceutical - themed fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative pharmaceutical indexes. It constructs an evaluation system in eligible samples, mainly considering indicators such as the fund's relative benchmark index winning rate, and ensures 15 funds are included in the index [24][27]. 3.2.6 Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 0.59% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 22.45% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the consumption - themed fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative consumption indexes. It constructs an evaluation system in eligible samples and ensures 10 funds are included in the index [27]. 3.2.7 Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 5.79% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.12% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the technology - themed fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative technology indexes. It constructs an evaluation system in eligible samples and ensures 10 funds are included in the index [33]. 3.2.8 High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It rose 8.47% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 2.53% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the high - end manufacturing - themed fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative high - end manufacturing indexes. It constructs an evaluation system in eligible samples and ensures 10 funds are included in the index [35]. 3.2.9 Cycle Stock Fund Preferred Index - Performance: It fell 1.90% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 2.85% since its establishment. Its performance comparison benchmark is the cycle - themed fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [7][15]. - Index positioning: It selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative cycle indexes. It constructs an evaluation system in eligible samples and ensures 5 funds are included in the index [35].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **A-share market** in China, highlighting a recent style shift from **'growth/tech'** to **'value/dividend'** during October 2025. The ChiNext and STAR 50 indices have decreased by **7.6%** and **8.5%** month-to-date (MTD) as of October 20, while the CSI 300 has only dipped **2.2%** and the SSE Dividend Index has increased by **5.6%** [1][7][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Factors Behind Style Shift**: - Investors are rebalancing portfolios due to escalating **China-US trade frictions** [1][14]. - Profit-taking is occurring after a recent rally in the **greater tech** sector [1][14]. - Concerns about a slowdown in net inflows into high-beta stocks following adjustments to **SMIC's margin-financing conversion rate** [1][14]. 2. **Medium-Term Outlook**: - Despite the near-term style shift, the **'growth'** style is expected to remain the main investment style in the medium term. The A-share market typically prices in trade tensions quickly, and the recent corrections have largely absorbed the shock from tariff risks [2][15][16]. - The **greater tech** sector's turnover has decreased to **32%**, down from **38%** in late September, indicating reduced crowding risk [2][24]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - The **ChiNext Index** is recommended for better risk-reward opportunities, as it has a **39%** weight in the greater tech sector, which is currently undervalued [3]. - Pro-cyclical sectors such as **solar, chemicals, and lithium** are preferred under the current market conditions [3][51]. Additional Important Insights - **Earnings Growth**: The aggregate earnings growth of ChiNext constituents has notably increased to **16.5%** in H125, indicating potential for future performance [3]. - **High-Dividend Stocks**: High-dividend sectors are expected to outperform due to their defensive nature and strong fundamentals, benefiting from long-term inflows from insurers [49]. - **Consumer Sector Performance**: During the National Day holiday, key retail and catering companies saw a **2.7%** YoY sales increase, which is lower than previous holidays, indicating potential challenges in the consumer sector [50]. - **Property Market**: Property sales volume in China's 30 cities declined by **12%** YoY, suggesting a slow recovery for property-related sectors [51]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently experiencing a style shift influenced by external trade tensions and profit-taking in tech stocks. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive for growth-oriented investments, particularly in the ChiNext Index and pro-cyclical sectors. High-dividend stocks are also positioned to perform well in the near term.

Core Insights - Historical patterns indicate that during each bull market, when turnover rates approach a certain peak, the market tends to experience fluctuations, often accompanied by a rapid decline in turnover rates [3][11] - The report identifies three stages of volume contraction fluctuations: rapid adjustment phase, strong fluctuation phase, and secondary adjustment phase, with the overall adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index typically ranging from 5% to 10% [3][11][20] Historical Analysis of Volume Contraction in Bull Markets - In the 2005-2007 bull market, three instances of volume contraction occurred after turnover peaks, lasting 1-3 months, with turnover rates reducing to 50% of previous highs, and overall index adjustments between 7% and 15% [4][12] - The 2013-2015 bull market saw two shorter instances of volume contraction, lasting from 1 week to 1 month, with turnover rates dropping to 33%-50% of previous highs, and index adjustments not exceeding 10% [4][14] - The 2019-2021 bull market experienced four instances of volume contraction lasting 2-4 months, with turnover rates reducing to 33%-50% of previous highs, and index adjustments between 6% and 15% [4][15] Current Market Conditions - The current market has entered a phase of volume contraction since September, with indications that this phase may be nearing its end, as the overall index remains strong without significant declines [16][20] - The report suggests that the core foundations of the current bull market are stable, driven by regulatory policies and a shift in resident asset allocation, which are more significant than short-term profit changes [20][23] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the index is likely to enter a major upward phase in November and December, driven by policy catalysts and an increase in resident capital inflows [20][23] - The report highlights potential sector rotations, with a focus on low-value sectors, and suggests that banks may benefit from this rotation [23][26]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has achieved a remarkable 14 consecutive trading days of stock price increases, leading to a market capitalization of over 2.83 trillion yuan, making it the highest in A-shares [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ABC's stock price rose from 6.61 yuan to 8.09 yuan during the 14-day period, resulting in a cumulative increase of 23.14% [1]. - The bank's year-to-date stock price increase has reached 58%, leading the A-share banking sector [3]. - The trading volume during the 14 days amounted to 51.942 billion yuan, with an increasing average daily trading volume from approximately 2.67 billion yuan to around 3.9 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, ABC reported operating income of 369.937 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 139.51 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [4]. - The bank's county-level loans exceeded 10 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 41% of total domestic loans, highlighting its strong position in the county financial sector [4]. Group 3: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a style shift, with historical data indicating a 70% probability of absolute returns for bank stocks in the fourth quarter [4]. - The bank benefits from favorable policies, including a 25% share of central bank re-loan quotas for agricultural support and a tolerance for non-performing loans in agricultural lending [5]. Group 4: Investment Dynamics - ABC's stable dividend yield of around 4.5% makes it an attractive option for long-term investors, especially in a volatile market [6]. - The bank's top ten shareholders are primarily state-owned entities, which stabilizes its stock price and reduces the influence of speculative trading [6]. - However, the high concentration of institutional ownership limits participation from retail investors, leading to low trading turnover [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The coal, chemical, and energy sectors are showing strength against the market trend, with various ETFs in these sectors rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal ETFs, chemical ETFs, and petrochemical ETFs have all increased by more than 2%, while rare metals and energy ETFs have risen over 1.5% [1] - The strong performance in these sectors is attributed to a combination of seasonal demand and supply constraints due to weather and regulatory factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A "rapid freeze" weather pattern is expected to impact the northern and southern regions of China, leading to increased winter storage and replenishment needs [1] - Continuous abnormal autumn rains in major coal-producing areas and deepening production restrictions are expected to tighten supply further [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Pacific Securities anticipates that the strong performance of traditional sectors like coal will not be a short-lived phenomenon, predicting renewed market attention over the next quarter [1] - The report suggests that sectors such as coal, banking, photovoltaic, aquaculture, and nuclear power are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [1] - The current high absorption rate in technology sectors indicates that chasing high returns may be challenging, reinforcing the potential for gains in undervalued sectors [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Zhongyin Securities believes that there is only a rotation of styles rather than a complete switch, indicating that the current market adjustments do not signal panic [2] - The anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market may begin as early as December, contingent on sufficient prior adjustment space [2] - The report emphasizes that the current adjustments in the technology growth style are healthy and may create favorable conditions for future performance [2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the potential for a significant style switch in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the strong performance of mainstream stocks in Q3 may not continue into Q4, indicating a high probability of style switching [1][9]. - Historical analysis shows that in bull markets driven by liquidity, style switching is more pronounced compared to fundamental-driven bull markets, which tend to have less volatility and fewer style changes [1][2]. - The report introduces an "A-share high-cut low" index, which indicates that low-positioned stocks are becoming more effective, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a "high-cut low" pricing process, characterized by high-positioned stocks declining while low-positioned stocks are rapidly rotating, indicating that a clear style switch has not yet formed [2]. - The mid-term style switch is highlighted, with a focus on the transition from value to growth stocks, marking the beginning of a new cycle in 2025 [2][24]. - Short-term observations indicate that the internal rotation of high and low-positioned technology stocks lacks clear patterns, relying more on industrial logic rather than trading sentiment [2][3]. Group 3 - The report discusses the relationship between A-share technology stocks and Hong Kong technology stocks, noting that the relative excess returns of the ChiNext index compared to the Hang Seng Tech index have peaked and are now declining [3][28]. - It highlights the difficulty in breaking through the high differentiation between technology and cyclical styles, with recent PPI stabilization making it challenging for these styles to diverge significantly [3][31]. - The report also mentions the convergence of M2 and social financing growth rates, indicating that large-cap stocks are currently outperforming small-cap stocks [3][36]. Group 4 - The report evaluates the potential transition from a "liquidity bull" to a "fundamental bull" in the fourth quarter, tracking signals related to geopolitical and economic cycles [3][4]. - It suggests that the upcoming APEC meeting and the end of the new round of US-China tariff exemptions may lead to a more stable internal and external environment, which is crucial for economic growth [4]. - The report anticipates that the true style switch may not occur until November, when low-positioned cyclical stocks could become the focus of investment strategies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents insights from Li Bei, founder of Banxia Investment, emphasizing the importance of self-awareness and maintaining a balanced investment strategy in the face of market fluctuations. The focus is on achieving investment success through a clear understanding of one's capabilities and the market environment, rather than chasing every opportunity [2][20]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - Li Bei expressed satisfaction with the performance of low-volatility funds, which outperformed the CSI 300 index, achieving returns exceeding 14% as of August 31 [5]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach, focusing on areas of expertise and avoiding sectors like technology and small-cap stocks where the firm lacks deep research [6][9]. - The use of the CSI 500 index futures (IC) allows for safer participation in the technology sector, providing enhanced returns while managing risk through lower volatility [9][47]. Group 2: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The article discusses the ongoing bullish trend in the stock market, suggesting that the current phase is driven by liquidity and risk appetite, with the stock-bond yield spread remaining favorable for equities [26][29]. - Li Bei believes that the stock market's upward trend is still in its early stages, with significant potential for growth as liquidity conditions improve and investor confidence returns [29][36]. - The real estate sector is identified as having a once-in-a-decade opportunity, driven by supply-demand dynamics and improved competitive landscape among surviving firms [38][44]. Group 3: Communication and Investor Relations - Effective communication with investors is crucial, emphasizing the need for transparency and setting realistic expectations to avoid disappointment during performance fluctuations [17][18]. - The approach involves allowing investors to make their own decisions while providing them with a stable framework and honest assessments of market conditions [18][21]. Group 4: Personal Growth and Market Philosophy - Li Bei highlights the importance of self-love and understanding in navigating the investment landscape, advocating for a balanced perspective towards market dynamics and personal well-being [20][24]. - The philosophy of "loving the world while loving oneself" is presented as a guiding principle for maintaining a positive mindset amidst market challenges [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.43%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.19% as of 9:32 AM on October 21. The market sentiment is approaching a neutral level, making expectations for a strong index rise unrealistic, with range-bound fluctuations expected to be the main market characteristic [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The energy sector, particularly shale gas and combustible ice, saw a resurgence, with companies like ShenKong Co. and Petrochemical Machinery hitting the daily limit up [2][3]. - The construction machinery sector also performed well, with JianShe Machinery reaching the daily limit up [1]. - Conversely, coal and gas stocks experienced a pullback, while consumer sectors such as food and beverages weakened [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted a continuation of volume contraction and style rotation, indicating a market consolidation phase following the overheated trading in the computing power sector [4]. - China Galaxy highlighted a shift in market style due to external trade uncertainties and previous gains in certain sectors, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors [5]. - Dongfang Securities emphasized that the market is likely to remain in a range-bound state, with a focus on balanced allocation and attention to sectors like semiconductor equipment and AI [7]. Group 3: Energy Sector Insights - China's natural gas production has increased significantly from 30 billion cubic meters in 2000 to an expected 240 billion cubic meters in 2024, positioning the country as the fourth-largest producer globally [2]. - The development of unconventional gas resources, particularly coalbed methane, is seen as a new opportunity in the energy sector [2].