宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - April CPI year-on-year remained at -0.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[1][11] - April PPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%[1][30] - The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.2%, returning to seasonal levels after two months below seasonal averages[4][18] Group 2: Agricultural and Food Prices - April food CPI month-on-month turned positive, increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by improved demand for agricultural products[3][13] - Vegetable prices are expected to remain under pressure due to stable supply and increased demand, with a 6.9% decrease in average wholesale prices from May 1 to May 9 compared to April[3][13] - Pork prices showed a month-on-month increase of 2.8 percentage points to -1.6%, with expectations of recovery due to rising feed and meat prices[3][13] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - May CPI is expected to decrease by approximately -0.2% year-on-year, with a similar month-on-month decline anticipated[5][38] - May PPI is projected to show a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline, with overall prices expected to remain weak due to low international demand[5][39] - The overall average CPI for 2025 is forecasted to be in the range of 0%-1% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to average between -1% and 2%[5][39] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The core CPI recovery is attributed to demand for precious metal jewelry, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns[4][18] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices, which could impact inflation forecasts[5][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have shown a rebound due to optimistic macroeconomic expectations and heightened geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $63.91 and $61.02 per barrel respectively as of May 9, 2025 [7][29]. - The OPEC+ group has accelerated production increases, adding 411,000 barrels per day, which has reinforced market expectations of oversupply [7]. - The report highlights the performance of the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector rising by 0.95% compared to a 2.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [8]. Oil Price Overview - As of May 9, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.91 per barrel, up $2.62 (+4.27%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.02 per barrel, an increase of $2.73 (+4.68%) [29]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $1.83 (+3.16%) to $59.68 per barrel [29]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms reached 383, an increase of 2 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 137, down by 2 [38]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease of 98,000 barrels from the previous week [54]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 474, down by 5, and the number of fracturing fleets decreased to 195, down by 6 [54][46]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.071 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 7,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.00%, up 0.4 percentage points [65]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 837 million barrels, a decrease of 1.452 million barrels (-0.17%) from the previous week [74]. - Strategic oil reserves increased by 580,000 barrels (+0.15%) to 399 million barrels, while commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.032 million barrels (-0.46%) to 438 million barrels [74]. Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普巨额减税方案的立法工作将 于下周正式启动，尽管共和党内部仍存分歧，但至关重要的众 议院委员会将开始审议相关立法。共和党仍在激烈辩论重要的 细节，包括扩大州和地方税收抵免以及限制遗产税等内容。 评：避险情绪有所减弱，美元指数反弹，利空黄金。黄金下方 空间和上方空间均有限，黄金中期高位震荡略偏空思路为宜。 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2380元/吨，下降42元/ 吨；甲醇开工92.17%，周上升2.45%；西北能源30万吨/年甲醇 装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率71.22%，周下降 0.82%；中国甲醇港口样本库存46.32万吨，周下降12.24万吨； 甲醇样本生产企业库存30.98万吨，周减少0.26万吨。评：成本 端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预期 高位运行，下游需求下降，本周外轮到港量预期环比增量，港 口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇部分市场走跌，企业竞拍成交一 般，港口甲醇市场基差偏强，整体商谈成交尚可。预计甲醇09 合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2210一线，建议观望或回调短线 做多。 投资咨询中心 2025年05月09日 研 ...

Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced a comprehensive package of ten policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, along with a 0.25 percentage point decrease in the rates for structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans [1][2] - The reduction in reserve requirements is expected to release 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which will help alleviate the pressure on banks' liabilities and lower borrowing costs [1][3] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by external demand pressure, internal demand differentiation, and structural support, with the manufacturing PMI in April dropping to 49.0%, indicating weakening economic conditions [2][4] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. have significantly impacted global trade and China's export outlook, serving as a core trigger for the recent monetary policy easing [2][4] Market Implications - The dual reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates is expected to lead to a downward trend in funding rates, particularly benefiting short-term rates while long-term rates may face challenges due to pricing pressures [1][4] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.62%, with expectations that it could approach 1.5% as the market adjusts to the new monetary policy landscape [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming LPR quotation on May 20 will be crucial; a significant reduction in the 5-year and above LPR could open up trading opportunities in long-term bonds [5] - The government's new urbanization strategy is projected to create approximately 4 trillion yuan in investment demand, indicating ongoing fiscal support alongside monetary easing [2][3]

摘要 财通证券陈兴预计，4月投资累计增速或保持稳定。 他们预计，受季节性因素影响，4月金融数据将较上月回落，新增贷款预测均值为7764亿元、社会融资 总量预测均值为1.31万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为7.3%。在调研中，经济学家们均表示，未来货币 政策将维持宽松状态。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，信贷方面，4月为信贷小月，信贷增速或继续与上月持平。 2025年4月30日，人民币对美元中间价为7.2014元。经济学家们预计，5月人民币对美元中间价可能会有 所上调，他们对到5月底人民币对美元中间价的预测均值为7.18，同时对年底人民币对美元中间价的平 均预期由上月的7.21上调至7.17。 2025年5月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为49.84，回落至50荣枯线以下。 经济学家们认为，受外需下行拖累，叠加关税政策前景不明朗，我国经济面临一定压力。 招商证券谢亚轩认为，外需缺口将推动国内政策加码，其中，需求侧主要着力于居民消费需 求，供给侧主要着力于为外贸企业纾困解难。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推 出十项政策，进一步实施好适度宽松 ...

迪士尼(DIS.N)：将继续监测宏观经济发展。 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 is -0.3%, below the expected -0.2% and significantly lower than the previous quarter's 2.5% [1] - Consumer spending, inventory changes, and fixed investment contributed positively to GDP growth, while government spending and net exports were negative factors [1] - Consumer prices increased while consumption volume decreased, with durable goods consumption affected by the seasonal decline in automotive sales, although service consumption remained resilient [1] - Residential investment growth rate declined year-on-year, while investment in computer equipment surged, boosting overall private fixed investment [1] - Wholesale inventory levels increased significantly, including upstream resources like oil and consumer goods such as furniture and clothing [1] - Trade deficit widened significantly due to increased imports of precious metals and chemicals, while mechanical and electronic imports also rose [1] Employment Data - The US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding the expected 138,000 [1] - The education and healthcare sectors showed the largest job growth, while transportation and warehousing sectors experienced increased demand due to trade policy uncertainties [1] - The labor participation rate increased, which may exert upward pressure on the unemployment rate, but the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] Consumer Income and Spending - In March, US personal disposable income growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, while personal consumption expenditure growth rate also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.6% [2] - The PCE price index year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, and the core PCE growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7% [2] Market Performance - For the week of April 28 to May 2, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 1.39%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 3.45%, and the S&P 500 Index grew by 2.92% [3] - Out of the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 10 sectors saw gains, with the industrial sector leading at 4.32%, while the energy sector declined by 0.65% [3] Investment Direction - US stocks continued to rebound, with expectations around Trump's tariff policies impacting economic growth [5] - Stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data indicates resilience in the US economy, alongside signs of easing in US-China trade tensions [5] - As of now, 71% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 earnings, with 69% exceeding expectations, slightly below the previous quarters' average of 75% [5] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, with the probability of a May rate cut falling to 2% and potential cuts starting in July [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of moderate recovery despite external shocks, with a focus on the Chinese economy and its resilience amid external pressures [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: On May 2, the market rose due to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, strong earnings from tech companies, and positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations, leading to a general increase in global risk appetite [1][2]. - **Chinese Economic Resilience**: China's economy demonstrated strong resilience, with a stable PMI and robust consumer data during the May Day holiday, indicating a solid internal demand despite external challenges [1][5]. - **Policy Support**: The Chinese government has ample policy tools to stabilize the market and expectations, with the central bank and regulatory bodies planning to introduce financial policies to counter external demand impacts [1][6]. - **Currency Improvement**: The RMB exchange rate improved significantly during the May Day holiday, dropping from around 7.26 to approximately 7.21, which supported overseas risk appetite and contributed to positive capital market performance [1][4]. - **Consumer Spending**: Domestic consumption data during the May Day holiday showed strong performance, with retail and catering sales exceeding those during last year's National Day and this year's Spring Festival, reflecting the resilience of internal demand [1][5]. - **External Demand Pressure**: Anticipated external demand pressures in Q2 will lead to the gradual introduction of structural countermeasures by China, with ongoing tariff issues affecting U.S.-China economic relations [1][6][9]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: By 2025, external demand shocks are expected to increase, but China's real estate fundamentals are nearing a bottom, which may sustain long-term capital interest [1][9]. - **Internal Demand as a Driver**: In Q3, if external disturbances stabilize, internal demand will become a more significant driver of growth, with a focus on structural upgrades in technology-related sectors [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The recent rise in market sentiment is attributed to both external factors, such as the recovery of overseas risk appetite, and the stability of the domestic economy, supported by available policy space [2][3][11]. - **Future Policy Adjustments**: Financial and monetary policies are expected to be prioritized initially, with fiscal measures potentially introduced later to support the economy as pressures increase [1][8]. - **Monitoring Future Developments**: Attention should be paid to the potential for improved communication and negotiation between the U.S. and China in the latter half of the year, which could enhance market conditions [1][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various sectors including macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations to provide investment suggestions and price trend outlooks for each sector [2][4][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23%, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.85%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.3 billion yuan, an increase of 147.2 billion yuan from the previous day. There were positive macro news such as the increase in the sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the "May Day" holiday. It is suggested to buy long positions in IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may return to fundamentals. With the weakening of manufacturing PMI in April, economic growth in the second quarter may be under pressure. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity remains supportive, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate downward in the long - run after short - term fluctuations [6] - **Precious Metals**: Although the prices of gold and silver were weak during the "May Day" holiday, the medium - term driving factors for the rise in gold prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and wait to buy on dips after the correction. For silver, it is suggested to wait and see for now [7][8] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: During the "May Day" holiday, LME copper stocks decreased, and domestic refined copper production is expected to increase slightly in May. If the Sino - US trade situation eases, copper prices may continue to rise, but there are also pressures such as inflation expectations and weakening supply - demand relationships [11] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded during the holiday. If Sino - US relations improve, aluminum prices may rebound further, but the weakening domestic manufacturing industry poses a challenge to the demand for aluminum [12] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and there is a risk of a decline in zinc prices due to the expected increase in social inventory and weakening downstream demand [13] - **Lead**: The lead market shows that lead ore inventory is rising, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and move in a box - shaped range in the medium - term [14][15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel exceeds demand. With weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in intermediate product production in May, it is recommended to short nickel on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease in the future. With the impact of tariffs on demand, the price of tin may decline [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is under pressure due to weakening demand expectations, cost valuation decline, and the market may further test the industry's price acceptance [18] - **Alumina**: The supply surplus situation persists, and it is recommended to short on rallies [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of raw materials is high, and supply is expected to tighten. The market for 304 stainless steel is expected to gradually improve [21] 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weakening trend. The overall supply - demand structure of steel has no obvious contradictions, but the market is affected by overseas exports and production restriction rumors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [23][24] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments decreased slightly, and demand is expected to peak and decline. The price of the main contract is likely to be weak [25][26] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak, and the supply of soda ash is at a high level. Although there is some support from demand, the medium - term supply is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [28][29] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is not recommended to buy on dips [34][35] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose slightly during the holiday. There are different views on the market, with bulls focusing on potential production cuts and bears on weak demand. It is recommended to take a moderately bullish short - term approach [37][39] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's production increase has been realized. It is recommended to take profits on short positions on dips and consider short - term long positions in the positive spread [40] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol is increasing, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [41] - **Urea**: The market has high supply and low demand. If export restrictions are relaxed, it may boost the market. It is recommended to hold long positions for those who have already entered the market at low prices and wait for a better entry opportunity for new investors [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is under pressure due to factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and weak demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [43][45] - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC are both weak. Although inventory is decreasing, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is decreasing, but the expected inventory reduction has not been realized. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [47] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is still in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. However, the short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies following the trend of crude oil [48] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is also in the maintenance season, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the medium - term. The short - term valuation is supported, and it is recommended to short on rallies with the trend of crude oil [49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of PE may be under pressure in the second quarter, and the price is expected to fluctuate [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The cost of PP has some support, and the price is expected to be slightly bearish in May [51] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price fluctuated slightly during the holiday. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term market sentiment and wait and see in the short - term [54] - **Eggs**: The egg price was stable during the holiday, but it is expected to be weak in May. It is recommended to short on rallies [55] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal is expected to decline in the future due to sufficient supply, while the price of US soybeans has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the trading rhythm [56][58] - **Oils and Fats**: The price of palm oil is under pressure due to production increase and other factors. The demand for US soybean oil may be boosted. The price of oils and fats is expected to decline, but there is a possibility of support in the medium - term if the macro - economy stabilizes [59][61] - **Sugar**: The supply of raw sugar is expected to increase, and the price may decline. The domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a risk of decline in the future [62][64] - **Cotton**: Affected by tariffs and the end of the consumption peak season, the cotton price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes [65][66]