资金流向也印证了情绪的微妙转折：ETF持仓四日连增，期金多头仓位同步加码，与去年四季度"削仓 观望"形成鲜明对照。与此同时，白银、铂金、钯金的同步拉升说明贵金属内部轮动回暖，暗示避险需 求正从单点向群体扩散。接下来，若非农失速与核心CPI降温同步出现，实质利率下探空间将被迅速放 大，黄金若上摸3400美元甚至冲击3500美元并非奢望。 短线多头不可忽视两道关口。其一，若非农意外强劲，美元或迅速回补空缺，技术性抛盘将拖累金价再 度考验3300美元支撑；其二，财政扩张引致的长端利率弹性仍在，若债券供给冲击超过需求修复速度， 名义收益率再抬头也会对金价形成压制。对中线配置而言，分批锁定3300美元下方筹码，并关注3400美 元附近的成交强度，可在波动中保持攻守平衡。 DLSMARKETS认为软化的就业数据给黄金打开了一条向上的斜坡，真正决定能否跨过3600美元门槛 的，仍是接下来几周就业与通胀的合拍节奏，以及美联储对"劳动力冷却"和"价格温和"权重的微调。在 宏观变量尚未尘埃落定前，黄金多头要想一鼓作气，还需更多基本面火力的推动。 ADP报告近两年首次录得民间岗位净减少，令"降息闸门或提前打开"的预期在交易盘中迅速 ...

去年美国对冲基金业绩的冠军，发现资本管理公司（Discovery Capital Management）认为美联储今年绝不可能降息，同时美股面临短期回调的风险。 7月1日，发现资本管理公司的创始人兼投资组合经理Robert Citrone在媒体节目上发出警告 ，由于市场对美联储降息的预期与经济现实严重脱节，加上贸易摩 擦再起，标普500指数短期内或将面临回调。然而，他同时预测，受国内投资和消费提振，美国经济将在明年迎来"繁荣"，而真正的投资机遇可能正在地球的 另一端——拉丁美洲涌现 。 Citrone明确表示，市场普遍预期的年内两次降息"非常危险"，他认为美联储今年"绝无可能"降息。他指出，核心通胀数据依然顽固，预计将从目前的2.8%攀升 至年底的3.5%，这将使任何降息的理由都站不住脚。 这一判断与市场主流观点形成鲜明对比，也构成了他看空美股短期前景的核心逻辑。Citrone认为， 这种预期的错位，叠加与欧洲、日本等经济体之间"艰 难"的贸易谈判，将给市场带来动荡。他将其比作一个"迷你的四月"，暗示市场将重现此前的波动 。 尽管短期看法谨慎，Citrone却对美国经济的长期前景极为乐观。他认为当前的经济放缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) official Demarco emphasizes the need to monitor the speed of euro appreciation, stating that it helps to curb inflation, but the euro will not replace the dollar as the dominant reserve currency [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the euro is seen as a tool to control inflation [1] - Monitoring the pace of euro appreciation is deemed necessary by ECB officials [1] - The euro is not expected to take over the dollar's position as the primary reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of economic data and trade negotiations on market dynamics, particularly the rising demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to economic uncertainties and high tariff threats [1][3][4] - The ADP employment data for June showed a significant decline of 33,000 jobs, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023, which was far below the expected increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The Challenger job cuts report indicated that layoffs rose to 47,999 in June, the highest level since December 2024, reinforcing concerns about economic slowdown and aggressive cost-cutting measures by employers [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations are creating a highly fragmented global trade landscape, with various countries seeking exemptions or reductions in tariffs while facing significant uncertainties [2][3] - The U.S. is employing a "divide and conquer" strategy in negotiations, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries and Canada having to withdraw a planned digital services tax to restart talks [2] - The potential for a differentiated tariff system and trade conflicts may disrupt global supply chains and increase production costs, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [3][4] Group 3 - The instability in trade policies is providing solid support for precious metal prices, with gold and silver expected to find strong support around $3,300 and $36 respectively [4] - The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could trigger significant movements in gold and silver prices depending on the employment trends [4] - Analysts suggest a cautious approach before the non-farm data release, with potential for increased positions if key resistance levels are broken [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan due to persistent inflation above the central bank's target [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to around 143.75, an increase of 0.07% from the previous close of 143.65 [1] - The market anticipates that the USD/JPY could face resistance in the 143.35-143.40 range, with a potential recovery towards the 144.00 level if this resistance is broken [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the Tokyo metropolitan area showed signs of slowing in June but remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target [1] - Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics indicated that the ongoing inflation levels suggest that the Bank of Japan may need to resume tightening monetary policy, with a potential rate hike expected in October [1] - The article notes that overall inflation indicators are still well above the Bank of Japan's May forecasts, reinforcing the case for a shift in policy [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations between the U.S. and Japan is seen as a core support for a stronger yen, with the market pricing in a potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The article mentions that the probability of a rate cut in July by the Federal Reserve is close to 20%, contributing to downward pressure on the USD/JPY [1] - Any further upward movement in the USD/JPY may be viewed as a selling opportunity, with gains potentially limited by the 200-period simple moving average near the 144.40 area [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - Discovery Capital Management's founder Robert Citrone warns that the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts this year is "very dangerous" and believes the Federal Reserve will not cut rates at all [1][3] - Citrone predicts that core inflation will rise from 2.8% to 3.5% by the end of the year, undermining any rationale for rate cuts [1][3] - He expresses concern over the disconnect between market expectations and economic realities, suggesting that the S&P 500 may face short-term corrections due to renewed trade tensions [1][4] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Despite short-term caution, Citrone is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the U.S. economy, expecting a "prosperity" driven by manufacturing return and consumer stimulus policies next year [2][5] - He believes the current economic slowdown is a "false signal" caused by policy uncertainty [2] Group 3: Trade Issues - Citrone identifies trade negotiations as another short-term risk factor, describing current tariff issues as "tricky" and "chaotic" [4] - He acknowledges that while strong trade policies may create structural changes, the process will not be smooth [4][5] Group 4: Global Capital Flows - Citrone notes a shift in global capital flows, with the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets declining, prompting investors to look towards overseas markets [6][7] - He highlights that the 11% decline in the dollar this year is not solely due to rate cut expectations but also because investors are hedging against their dollar holdings [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Latin America - Citrone sees Latin America as a new value area, with markets appearing undervalued compared to U.S. assets [7] - He cites Argentina's significant policy shift as a case study, where a transition from leftist policies to sound economic management led to a 4400% increase in stock prices [7] - Citrone anticipates similar positive developments in other Latin American countries, particularly with upcoming elections potentially shifting political landscapes [7][8]

日本央行审议委员高田创：日本国内通胀的迹象终于出现。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that due to tariffs leading to increased inflation, the US dollar is expected to rise in the coming months, contrary to its recent downward trend [1][6] - Chris Turner from ING predicts that the dollar may temporarily escape its decline starting in August, as trade tariffs will accelerate consumer price growth, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1][6] - The euro is expected to briefly retreat to the range of 1.13 to 1.15 against the dollar, while the dollar to yen exchange rate is projected to return to the range of 145 to 150, indicating a decline of about 4% for both currencies [1][6] Group 2 - The market anticipates at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, with the first cut expected in September [6] - Turner forecasts that the US inflation rate will rise from 2.4% in May to approximately 4% by August or September, with a median forecast of 3.1% for the third quarter and 3.3% for the last three months of the year [6] - The dollar index has fallen over 9% since 2025, reflecting increased bearish bets on the dollar's future performance [6] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a key factor influencing the dollar's outlook, with a low unemployment rate suggesting a peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar [7] - If the labor market begins to deteriorate, market sentiment may shift towards a more negative outlook for the dollar [7]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that managing inflation involves "tightening" monetary policy, while managing deflation requires a more nuanced approach, as simply "loosening" can lead to a liquidity trap [1][2][9] - Inflation is characterized by an excess of money in the market, necessitating a reduction in liquidity to stabilize prices [1][2] - Deflation, on the other hand, is not merely a decrease in prices but a complex psychological issue that can lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of reduced spending and investment [9][10][11] Group 2 - Fiscal policy is essential in a deflationary environment, as both businesses and consumers are reluctant to borrow and spend [3][4] - There are two types of fiscal policies: direct government spending and providing funds to citizens for consumption [4][5] - The effectiveness of government spending is contingent on the multiplier effect, where initial government expenditure leads to further spending by businesses and consumers [5][6] Group 3 - Direct cash transfers to citizens can stimulate consumption more effectively than government spending, as individuals are more aware of their needs [7][9] - However, direct cash transfers face challenges related to marginal propensity to consume, as seen in Japan's prolonged economic stagnation [7][12] - The article highlights the importance of targeted consumption vouchers and subsidies to encourage spending in specific sectors [7][12] Group 4 - The article discusses historical examples of deflation, including the U.S. Gilded Age, Switzerland post-Eurozone crisis, and Greece during the Eurozone crisis, illustrating different causes and solutions to deflation [12][16][19] - The U.S. Gilded Age experienced deflation due to a combination of gold standard constraints and increased productivity, leading to economic growth despite falling prices [12][13] - Switzerland managed to escape deflation through negative interest rates, while Greece's structural reforms were necessary to recover from severe deflation [16][19]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historic high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 10.52 points, or 0.02%, closing at 44,484.42 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 190.24 points, or 0.94%, closing at 20,393.13 points [1] - Datadog (DDOG.US) will be added to the S&P 500 index, replacing Juniper Networks, leading to a post-market surge of over 9% for Datadog [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for June showed a significant decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 [1] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle deliveries for Q2, with total sales of 384,122 units, below analyst expectations of 387,000 units [6] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) announced layoffs of approximately 9,000 employees, affecting less than 4% of its global workforce [7] - Google (GOOG.US) proposed new adjustments to its search results to mitigate potential antitrust fines from the EU [7] Stock Ratings - Jefferies upgraded Apple (AAPL.US) from "Underperform" to "Hold" [8]