Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - China's fiscal policy has shifted to a more proactive stance, with increased funding and support aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [2][3] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, which is an increase of 150 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - In the first half of the year, over 66 million consumers participated in the consumption upgrade program, purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances [2] Group 2: Investment in Infrastructure and Technology - The Guangdong Shantou International Textile City project received 190 million yuan in local government special bond funding, facilitating its progress [3] - The government has arranged 200 billion yuan in long-term special bonds for equipment upgrades, which is an increase of 50 billion yuan from last year, benefiting approximately 7,500 projects [5] - The Shandong Province New Momentum Fund has invested over 30 billion yuan in more than 390 projects in digital economy and artificial intelligence sectors [7] Group 3: Support for Employment and Livelihood - In Nanchong City, 1.14 billion yuan in entrepreneurial guarantee loans were issued, supporting 378 individuals to start businesses and creating 27,500 jobs [8] - Nationally, social security and employment expenditures reached 24,504 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [9] - The focus on enhancing the quality of life through fiscal spending is expected to stimulate economic growth and create a positive cycle between economic development and livelihood improvement [9]

新华社北京7月25日电 题：充分释放财政政策推动高质量发展的效能 新华社记者申铖 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 财政政策是宏观调控的关键工具。近年来，在世界经济复苏乏力的大背景下，财政政策在很多国家 宏观调控工具箱中的主体地位日益凸显，成为推动经济行稳致远的关键手段。 积极发挥财政政策护航经济"稳"的重要功能。赤字水平和赤字规模均为近年最高，上半年新增地方 政府专项债券发行超2万亿元，下达1620亿元超长期特别国债资金推动消费品以旧换新，中央金融机构 注资特别国债发行，债务置换政策落实落细……面对复杂的国内外形势，今年我国财政政策从"积极"转 向"更加积极"，政策力度更大、强度更高，在扩投资、促消费、防风险等方面持续发力。展望后续，国 际环境仍然复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加，要根据形势变化和经济情景变化相机抉择、"开准药 方"，将更加积极的财政政策用好用足。 积极发挥财政政策推动发展"进"的关键作用。持续强化对教育和科技的支持，上半年教育、科学技 术支出同比增长5.9%、9.1%；完善各项惠企助企政策；进一步完善横向生态保护补偿机制……今年以 来，财政更加着力"增后劲"，推动高质量发展"成色"更足。当前，" ...

贷款期限结构得到改善 央行数据显示，6月份，人民币贷款增加2.81万亿元，同比多增6867亿元。 具体到6月份来看，人民币贷款增加2.81万亿元，同比多增6867亿元；社会融资规模增量为5.17万亿 元，比上年同期多1.47万亿元。这两项数据也创下历史同期新高。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，随着各项稳增长政策落地实施， 金融机构持续加大对实体经济支持力度，信贷有效需求显著回升，信贷结构明显优化，6月份金融数据 整体超出市场预期，预示宏观经济继续复苏向好。 7月11日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）发布2022年上半年金融数据。上半年，人民币贷款增 加13.68万亿元，同比多增9192亿元；社会融资规模增量累计为21万亿元，比上年同期多3.2万亿元。6月 末，广义货币(M2)余额258.15万亿元，同比增长11.4%。 6月份，企（事）业单位中长期贷款增加约1.45万亿元，同比逆转上月少增局面。 "这显示出企业资本开支类支出景气度有所回升。"温彬表示，6月份稳增长配套政策应出尽出，基 建融资力度强化，政策性银行调增8000亿元信贷额度，地方专项债加快发行并推动尽快形成实物工作 量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a "more proactive fiscal policy" to ensure stable economic operation and enhance fiscal spending efficiency [1][3] - The government aims to maintain a high level of fiscal spending by expanding the fiscal deficit and increasing government debt, which can directly promote economic growth and boost market confidence [1][2] - There is a need to optimize and adjust fiscal and tax policies to ensure resources are concentrated in key areas, thereby improving the effectiveness of fiscal spending [1][2] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of deepening the legal, standardized, scientific, and standardized management of fiscal policies to achieve greater results with the same level of spending [2][3] - Emphasis is placed on performance management and the establishment of a performance evaluation system to supervise and assess the effectiveness of fiscal fund usage [2][3] - The need for fiscal discipline is stressed, particularly in addressing local government violations regarding guarantees and debt [2][3] Group 3 - The proactive fiscal policy faces challenges such as short-term effects, diminishing policy impacts, and increasing revenue-expenditure contradictions [3][4] - The article suggests that fiscal policy should support innovative development in "pilot" regions to drive high-quality development across all areas [4][5] - Recommendations include enhancing the quality of fiscal resources and optimizing the structure of fiscal spending to ensure a more proactive approach [5][6] Group 4 - The article advocates for a long-term perspective in fiscal policy implementation, emphasizing the need for sustainable economic and fiscal development [3][4] - It suggests that local governments should manage state-owned resources effectively and utilize various methods to optimize asset management [5][6] - The importance of investing in human capital through supportive policies for employment and housing is highlighted as a means to stimulate consumption and economic growth [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **U.S. economy** and **China's trade dynamics**, particularly in relation to the **Belt and Road Initiative** and the impact of U.S. fiscal policies on global capital expenditure cycles. U.S. Economic Insights - U.S. fiscal policy is experiencing cyclical expansion, particularly during the third to sixth years of a presidential term, significantly influencing global capital expenditure cycles and indirectly affecting the global economy through domestic industry and U.S. stock performance [1][4] - Post-pandemic, U.S. consumer spending has reached historical highs, while the savings rate has dropped to historical lows, indicating a close relationship between personal consumption expenditures, fiscal policy, and stock market performance, suggesting a potential economic recession starting in 2027-2028 [1][6] - Employment in private education, healthcare services, leisure, and hospitality has significantly increased, while manufacturing and mining sectors have contracted, reflecting structural shocks from the pandemic and advancements in artificial intelligence [1][8][9] - The U.S. stock market is expected to have upward momentum before the midterm elections, but a significant downturn is anticipated between 2027 and 2030, coinciding with structural employment issues leading to a negative feedback loop in the economy [1][10] China Trade Dynamics - As of May 2025, exports to Belt and Road countries accounted for half of China's total exports, with growth rates significantly outpacing those to non-Belt and Road countries, highlighting the increasing support of the Belt and Road strategy for China's foreign trade [3][13] - In the first five months of 2025, China's export share slightly increased from 13.9% to 14.0%, with expectations of exceeding 14% for the entire year despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs [12] - The July 2025 import and export data showed strong performance, with exports reaching $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and imports at $223.54 billion, up 4.1% [14] - Key contributors to China's export growth include electromechanical products and high-tech products, with integrated circuits experiencing a 29.2% year-on-year increase in July, driven by global AI demand [16] Employment Trends in the U.S. - The U.S. unemployment rate has shown a slight increase compared to 2022, indicating potential recession signs, but the overall economic condition remains stable, suggesting a recession may not occur until 2027-2028 [7] - Employment growth has been notable in private education and healthcare sectors due to increased demand post-pandemic, while manufacturing and mining sectors have faced declines due to structural changes [8][9] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain strength through 2026, with a significant downturn anticipated post-2027, emphasizing the importance of the current trading window [10] - China's trade performance is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year due to high base effects from the previous year, but the Belt and Road Initiative may continue to provide support [18] Additional Insights - Traditional export categories such as textiles, bags, and clothing have shown poor performance, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. continues to exert a drag on China's exports, while ASEAN and EU countries provide substantial support, with July exports to ASEAN and the EU growing by 16.6% and 9.24%, respectively [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the inter - bank liquidity presented a pattern of "stable and loose, low - level and low - volatility, and policy support". Seasonal loosening was dominant, and large - scale open - market maturities were the main disturbance, but the loose pattern remained. The central bank actively provided support, and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies was enhanced. The net lending scale of large - scale banks recovered rapidly, and the supply of liquidity was relatively abundant. The money market rates showed low - level and low - volatility characteristics, approaching a stage low [1]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was actually in line with the requirements of "maintaining abundant liquidity in monetary policy" and "synergistic efforts of fiscal and monetary policies". Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is also worth looking forward to. Next week, although there will be more disturbances, the overall money market still has support, but the volatility may increase, and the upward pressure on money market rates is controllable, while the downward space awaits the injection of incremental liquidity [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Funds Rate Reaches a Stage Low - At the beginning of the month, funds seasonally loosened. Although there were large - scale open - market maturities, the loose pattern of the money market remained. The launch of the 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8 showed the central bank's intention to support and the synergy between fiscal and monetary policies. The net lending scale of large - scale banks quickly recovered to over 4 trillion yuan. The primary - market prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) remained stable, and the secondary - market prices declined [11]. - The money market rates fluctuated at a low level throughout the week, possibly reaching a stage low. DR001 approached 1.3%. After the launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer on August 8, the money market rates declined further, and the fluctuation range narrowed significantly compared with the previous week [12]. - The seemingly "unexpected" launch of the repurchase with bond ownership transfer was in line with policy requirements. It is a quantity - based monetary policy tool, and its signal significance lies more in the operation scale than in the operation price. Whether the treasury bond trading operation will be restarted this month is worth anticipating [21][23]. - Although there may be resonance of disturbances in the money market in mid - August, with the central bank's pre - emptive support and the possible marginal mitigation of tax payment pressure, the fluctuations will be more controllable. The money market rates may have reached a stage low, and further downward movement depends on the injection of incremental liquidity. How the central bank operates and whether the net lending scale of large - scale banks can be maintained are important observation factors [24]. 3.2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Drops Slightly but Still Exceeds One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, an increase compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 - day reverse repurchase injections totaled 1.1267 trillion yuan, with maturities of 1.6632 trillion yuan, and 3 - month repurchase with bond ownership transfer injections totaled 700 billion yuan. From August 11 to August 15, the open - market maturities will be 1.1267 trillion yuan [3][31]. - The central bank withdrew the cross - month liquidity, but the stable trend of funds remained. The balance of reverse repurchases continued to decline but was still above the seasonal level. As of August 8, the balance of reverse repurchases was 1.1267 trillion yuan, a decrease of 536.5 billion yuan compared with August 1 [33]. 3.3. Government Bonds: Next Week's Issuance Scale Increases - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 351.4 billion yuan, including 260 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 91.4 billion yuan of local government bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 372.4 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds will be 37.7 billion yuan [42]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 0.90%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.07 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52 percentage points. It is predicted that the excess reserves at the end of July will be about 3.0668 trillion yuan. From August 4 to August 8, the open - market net injection was 163.5 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 370.6 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure gap was - 120 billion yuan, and the reserve requirement was 26.2 billion yuan [50][51]. 3.5. Money Market: DR001 Approaches 1.3% - As of August 8, compared with August 1, DR001 decreased by 0.23 basis points to 1.31%, DR007 increased by 0.09 basis points to 1.43%, R001 decreased by 1.32 basis points to 1.34%, and R007 decreased by 3.26 basis points to 1.45% [53]. - The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR rates decreased by 5.65 and 8.11 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.31% and 1.44%. The overnight and 7 - day CNH HIBOR rates increased by 8.29 and 5.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.22% and 1.45% [58]. - The weekly average rates of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y decreased by 0.98 and 2.23 basis points respectively compared with the previous week to 1.52% and 1.57%. The weekly average rates of six - month national - share transfer discount and six - month city - commercial transfer discount increased by 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous week to 0.68% and 0.79% [61]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.1091 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3925 trillion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged national debt repurchase was 2.186 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.97 billion yuan compared with the period from July 28 to August 1 [63]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: Next Week's Maturity Scale Approaches One Trillion Yuan - From August 4 to August 8, the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, and the net financing was 190.9 billion yuan, an increase in both issuance scale and net financing compared with the previous week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By maturity, 6 - month CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 1 - month CDs had the highest net financing [73]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 6.4 months, longer than the previous week's 5.86 months. Among them, the weighted average issuance terms of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city - commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 6.5, 7.4, 6.2, and 6.5 months respectively, with changes of 1.07, 0.69, 0.59, and - 0.08 months compared with the previous week [77]. - In terms of issuance success rate, joint - stock banks had the highest rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest issuance success rate. By credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest issuance success rate [79]. - Next week, the maturity scale of CDs will be 905 billion yuan, an increase compared with this week. The maturities are mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year [83][84]. 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Decline - After the month - end, the seasonal loosening of funds and the large - scale launch of repurchase with bond ownership transfer led to a continuous decline in the secondary - market yields of CDs. The yields of CDs of all maturities and ratings decreased [95][96].

财政部近日发布的数据显示，今年前4个月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%， 降幅较一季度收窄0.7个百分点；全国一般公共预算支出93581亿元，同比增长4.6%，完成预算的 31.5%，支出进度为2020年以来同期最快。 1至4月，全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多渠道盘活资产等带动。4月份，非税 收入增速进一步降至1.7%。对此，温彬表示，今年以来，非税收入增速持续放缓，主要是随着化债资 金落实到位，地方政府财政状况有所好转，对资产盘活的依赖度下降。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，4月份，一般财政收入增速进一步抬升，税收收入增速由负转 正，四大税种中个税收入改善是主要支撑，其余税种走弱，可能与入库节奏有关。另外，国有资产盘活 较难持续，非税收入增速为去年3月份以来最低水平。 具体到4月份，一般公共预算收入同比增长1.9%，增速较上月加快1.6个百分点。其中，税收收入增 速加快4.1个百分点至1.9%，非税收入增速放缓4.3个百分点至1.7%；一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%， 增速较上月加快0.1百分点。 中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，今年前 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-term government bond yields in China have been declining, with the 30-year yield falling below 2.5%, reflecting expectations of long-term economic growth and inflation, while also being influenced by supply and demand factors [1][2]. Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a positive long-term outlook on economic growth, asserting that the fundamental economic conditions remain favorable [1]. - Some institutional investors anticipate a moderate recovery in inflation from low levels, which could support an increase in long-term bond yields as nominal rates adjust to inflation [1]. - The bond market in China has made significant progress, ranking second globally in total size, but still requires improvements in market depth and pricing mechanisms [1]. Group 2 - A noticeable reduction in government bond supply this year may have contributed to the short-term divergence between bond yields and economic expectations [2]. - The PBOC's strong counter-cyclical monetary policy has created a favorable liquidity environment for the stable operation of the bond market [2]. - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" situation, leading to a potential rebound in long-term bond yields [2]. Group 3 - The PBOC's engagement in secondary market bond trading serves as a liquidity management tool and a reserve for monetary policy [3]. - China's bond market ranks third globally, with improved liquidity facilitating the PBOC's operations in the secondary market [3]. - Unlike developed economies that resorted to large-scale bond purchases for monetary policy goals, China continues to implement normal monetary policy, distinguishing its approach from quantitative easing (QE) practices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2024 is significant for funding major projects, stabilizing economic growth expectations, and enhancing market confidence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The third issuance of the 2024 ultra-long-term special government bonds was completed on November 15, with a face value of 50 billion yuan and an annual yield of 2.27% [1]. - A total of 22 issuances of ultra-long-term special government bonds occurred this year, with 3,000 billion yuan for 20-year bonds, 6,000 billion yuan for 30-year bonds, and 1,000 billion yuan for 50-year bonds [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The issuance of these bonds is aimed at supporting national strategic implementations and key areas such as infrastructure and technological innovation, effectively driving domestic demand and promoting high-quality development [3][5]. - The bonds help optimize the debt structure, enhance the central government's leverage, and reduce local government debt risks, thereby alleviating the investment burden on local governments [2][3]. Group 3: Future Plans - The government plans to continue issuing ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2025 to support major national strategies and enhance competitiveness and security [5]. - The ongoing issuance is expected to further stabilize economic growth and bolster international market confidence in the Chinese economy [5].

截至 6 月，高盛 proprietary 的广义财政赤字（AFD）指标按 12 个月移动平均计算为 GDP 的 11.3%（2024 年为 10.6%），这表明今年以来财政政策已成为温和的增长推动力，而去年则是增长拖 累。 香港时间8月6日下午，高盛发布亚洲宏观经济研究指出，鉴于今年迄今为止出口增长强于预期，以及当 前 "被动应对式"（而非 "先发制人式"）的宽松模式，中国的政策宽松一直是适度、有针对性且具有耐 心的。 7 月政治局会议表明，刺激的紧迫性有所下降，但高盛认为，若增长阻力加大，政策制定者仍为进一步 的宽松举措留有空间。 在这份报告中，高盛回顾了中国上半年的财政状况，评估了下半年可用的财政空间，重新审视今年剩余 时间的财政政策展望，并更新高盛对固定资产投资（FAI）的预测。 部分预算外融资渠道持续疲软 与去年相比，上半年财政状况有所改善 得益于去年年底推出的 10 万亿元地方政府债务化解计划以及今年的扩张性预算，中国的财政状况显著 改善。上半年，预算内财政支出同比增长 3.4%，持续高于财政收入（上半年同比下降 0.3%）。受土地 出让收入下滑的拖累，政府性基金收入依然低迷，今年上半年同比进一步 ...