Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, reached on July 27, aims to address tariffs, energy procurement, and investment, temporarily avoiding a potential high-intensity tariff conflict, but raises concerns about its sustainability and impact on European competitiveness [1][2][3]. Tariff and Investment Summary - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, replacing a previously threatened 30% punitive tariff, while the EU commits to investing $600 billion in the U.S. and purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products over three years [2]. - The agreement includes zero tariffs on strategic materials like aircraft parts and key chemicals, but maintains existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, with unresolved issues regarding spirits [2]. European Internal Reactions - There is significant dissent within Europe regarding the agreement, with various leaders expressing concerns about its fairness and long-term implications for European economic strength [3]. - French Prime Minister Béru criticized the deal as a capitulation to the U.S., while German Chancellor Merz acknowledged the negative impact on Germany's economy [3]. Economic Implications - The 15% tariff is expected to weaken the competitiveness of EU exports in the U.S., particularly affecting key industries such as automotive and cosmetics, with potential long-term economic costs for Europe [4]. - A report from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts a 0.13 percentage point loss in Germany's economic growth due to the agreement [4]. Uncertainties and Risks - The agreement contains ambiguities, particularly regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs, and lacks clarity on specific product exemptions, which could lead to future disputes [5]. - The investment commitments from the EU to the U.S. lack detailed terms, raising concerns about potential imbalances and the risk of the U.S. prioritizing its own interests [5]. Internal Discrepancies - The differing interests among EU member states and the lack of supportive policies for the agreement's implementation may create significant obstacles to its approval and execution within the EU [6]. Conclusion - The trade agreement reflects a compromise by Europe under pressure, aiming to stabilize market expectations in the short term, but it risks undermining European autonomy in trade, energy, and investment in the long run [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. announced a punitive tariff of up to 50% on Brazilian imports, targeting Brazil's growing influence in the BRICS nations and challenging the U.S. dollar system [1][3] - Brazil's government responded strongly, claiming the U.S. actions were an infringement on its sovereignty and vowed to retaliate based on the Economic Equivalence Act [3] - A surprising twist occurred when a long list of exemptions was included in the executive order, allowing nearly 700 products, which accounted for 44.6% of Brazil's exports to the U.S., to avoid the additional tariffs [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. has maintained a trade surplus with Brazil, with total trade nearing $81 billion in 2024 and a cumulative surplus of approximately $410 billion over the past 15 years [6] - Brazil is not just a resource exporter but also a significant market for U.S. industrial goods and services, making the trade relationship highly interdependent [6][10] - The exempted products include critical items such as aircraft, orange juice, and iron ore, which are essential to U.S. industries and supply chains [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. coffee market, heavily reliant on Brazilian imports, reacted sharply to the tariff threats, with coffee futures prices rising significantly [8] - Brazilian diplomats and business leaders focused their efforts on U.S. interest groups that would be adversely affected by a trade war, leading to a strong internal lobbying effort [10] - The final outcome was a compromise where the high tariffs served as a political statement while the exemptions addressed the economic realities faced by U.S. businesses [10]

Group 1 - Hedge funds are maintaining a cautious stance, continuing to sell U.S. stocks for four consecutive weeks, particularly in the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors, at the fastest pace in a year [1] - Retail investors have been net buyers of stocks for 23 consecutive trading days, contrasting with the cautious approach of hedge funds [1] - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before easing policies [1] Group 2 - Hedge funds reduced stock exposure and increased short positions in late March ahead of expected tariff announcements, a strategy that proved wise as global markets outperformed U.S. markets [2] - Despite missing the recent market rally, hedge funds have avoided significant losses by lowering leverage in advance, allowing them to sidestep forced participation in rebounds [2] - As of June, hedge funds' performance was flat, with a return rate of 7.8%, ranking in the 72nd percentile for the past six months since January 2000 [4] Group 3 - Seasonal patterns indicate that August and September are typically the worst-performing months of the year, which, combined with high valuations and tariff pressures, could pose challenges for the S&P 500 index [5] - Historical data shows that these two months perform particularly poorly during the first year of a presidential term, suggesting potential difficulties ahead before a strong year-end rally [5]

Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short-term view on oil prices is oscillating and bullish, and investors can still focus on the hedging value of out-of-the-money call options on crude oil [2] - The crack spreads of FU and LU are both weak due to the soft fundamentals of the high- and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the short-term macro and geopolitical support in the crude oil market [2] - The unilateral trend of asphalt follows the direction of crude oil, but the fluctuation range is relatively limited, and the low inventory still provides some support for the price [3] - The LPG market is under pressure overall, with the price running at a low level due to the downward pressure on the overseas market and the increased pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract falling 1.25%. The trade war suppressed market sentiment, but there were still supporting factors for sanctioned oil [2] - Trump advanced the deadline for sanctions against Russia to August 8. Last week, Indian state-owned refineries suspended purchases of Russian oil, and the US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The oscillating and bullish pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, but the futures of the fuel oil series have weakened. The LU2509 contract is temporarily supported at around 3,643 yuan/ton, and the FU and LU cracks continue to decline [2] - The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the demand for ship bunkering lacked support after the peak season. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June [2] Asphalt - Asphalt performed strongly among oil product futures today. The domestic production volume in August decreased month-on-month compared to July, and the demand recovery was delayed in the South due to typhoon and rainfall [3] - The shipments of 54 sample refineries remained flat month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase since July was stable. The commercial inventory of asphalt has been slow to decline [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, increasing the pressure of oversupply on the overseas market. The chemical profit margin improved after the import cost decreased, and there is still room for an increase in the PDH operating rate [4] - The supply was relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the domestic market was under pressure. The strengthening of crude oil recently increased the pressure on the delivery discount of the futures [4]

Market Overview - US stock index futures fell ahead of the market opening on August 1, with Dow futures down 0.84%, S&P 500 futures down 0.86%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.98% [1] - Wall Street "smart money" is accelerating its exit from US stocks despite the S&P 500 nearing historical highs, with hedge funds reducing their positions at the fastest rate in a year [4] Economic Indicators - The upcoming July employment report is expected to show an addition of 110,000 jobs, a significant drop from June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2% [3] - The Federal Reserve's balance point for job growth has shifted to 80,000-100,000 jobs per month [3] Corporate Earnings - ExxonMobil reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations with an adjusted EPS of $1.64, maintaining a $20 billion stock buyback commitment despite a nearly $20 per barrel drop in international oil prices [5] - Chevron's Q2 adjusted earnings reached $3.1 billion, with record production levels and cost control measures supporting performance [6] - Apple reported its Q3 revenue growth of 9.6%, the fastest in over three years, driven by strong iPhone sales and a recovery in the Chinese market [7] - Amazon's Q2 revenue grew 13% to $167.7 billion, but its cloud business AWS saw a growth rate of just over 17%, raising questions about the effectiveness of its AI investments [8] - Vale's Q2 net profit increased by 6% to $2.12 billion, supported by a surge in iron ore production [9] - WeRide's Q2 revenue grew 60.8%, with Robotaxi revenue reaching its highest proportion since 2021 [10] - First Solar raised its full-year guidance, expecting net sales between $4.9 billion and $5.7 billion for 2025 [11]

金十数据8月1日讯，尽管标普500指数持续攀升至历史高位附近，华尔街聪明资金却始终坚守看空立 场。高盛集团主经纪商业务部门报告显示，过去四周对冲基金持续减持美股，抛售规模远超空头回补。 尤为值得注意的是，在科技、媒体和电信板块财报季来临前，基金正以一年来最快速度削减相关持仓 ——这些板块正是4月以来股市反弹的主力推手。这种谨慎策略曾使对冲基金成功规避4月关税引发的抛 售潮。虽然可能错过标普500指数7月创新高的行情，但这些市场最成熟参与者的撤退举动，在贸易战担 忧萦绕、股市季节性疲软期将至的背景下，仍值得警惕。"基金经理们仍保持高度谨慎，因为许多根本 性风险尚未消除，"对冲基金研究机构PivotalPath首席执行官Jonathan Caplis指出。 对冲基金加速抛售美股 关税阴云下避险情绪升温 ...

Group 1 - Despite the S&P 500 index nearing historical highs, Wall Street's "smart money" remains bearish, with hedge funds reducing their equity positions significantly over the past four weeks [1] - Hedge funds are cutting positions in the technology, media, and telecommunications sectors at the fastest pace in a year, ahead of the earnings season for these sectors [1] - The cautious stance of hedge funds has previously allowed them to avoid losses during market sell-offs, indicating a strategic approach to risk management [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before shifting to a more accommodative policy [2] - Hedge funds have successfully reduced stock exposure and increased short positions in anticipation of tariff announcements, demonstrating foresight in their investment strategies [3] - Retail investors have shown contrasting enthusiasm, with net buying of stocks for 23 consecutive trading days, while hedge funds remain indifferent to the market rally [3] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that August and September are typically the worst-performing months for the stock market, particularly in the first year of a presidential term, indicating potential challenges ahead for the S&P 500 [5] - UBS reports that if historical trends hold, the S&P 500 may face difficulties in the upcoming months, with a potential strong rally expected by year-end [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since late 2022, the continuous uptrend of Shanghai Gold's main contract has been driven by factors such as the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics. Recently, with the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals face increased pressure to correct. Gold has been oscillating at a high level after the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, and its risk - aversion value has a more significant impact. Silver, which previously had higher volatility than gold but lower average gains in recent years due to its industrial attributes, has seen consecutive catch - up gains since the second half of the year, with its recent gains exceeding those of gold [6][12]. - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, while the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals. In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is crucial, and the Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points [7][20][23]. - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance. The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined. Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [8][42][46]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Recent Market Review - Since late 2022, Shanghai Gold's main contract has approximately doubled, with the risk - aversion and interest - rate cut logics jointly driving the trend. Recently, the easing of trade - war risk aversion and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations have increased the correction pressure on precious metals [12]. - After the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, gold has been oscillating at a high level. Compared with the previous two bull markets, the Fed has been more cautious in cutting interest rates during this bull market, and the risk - aversion value of gold has a more significant impact [15]. - Previously, silver had higher volatility than gold, but in recent years, its average gains have been lower than those of gold due to the significant drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of the year, silver has seen consecutive catch - up gains, with its gains exceeding those of gold [17]. II. Precious Metals Investment Logic Evolution - Risk - aversion events often trigger market movements, and the long - term trend is jointly determined by the monetary and commodity attributes of precious metals [20]. - In recent years, the monetary policies of global central banks have shown significant divergence. Non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between non - US currencies and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage [23]. - In terms of the comparison of interest rates among major economies, non - US economies cut interest rates faster than the US in the early stage, but recently, the pace of interest - rate cuts in non - US economies has slowed down, and the expected yield spread has declined from its high level [24]. - Currently, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in September, with the next possible rate cut in October 2025, and the expected total rate - cut space by the end of the year has dropped to 25 basis points, which is higher than the June dot - plot [27]. - Comparing the inflation rates of major economies, inflation in major economies has recently rebounded as a whole, and trade wars may bring widespread inflationary pressure [31]. - In terms of the economic growth rates of major economies, the US growth rate has slowed down but remains strong overall, while the growth rates of non - US economies are rising from the bottom [34]. - According to the latest July 2025 IMF economic growth rate forecast, the expected economic growth rates of the US for this year and next year are 1.9% and 2%, respectively, and those of the Eurozone are 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has been somewhat alleviated [37]. III. Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - The restructuring of the economic system is driving the reconstruction of the monetary system, and in the medium - to long - term, the upward movement of precious metals may continue to be the path of least resistance [42]. - In the process of "de - dollarization," the proportion of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves (stock) and international payments (flow) has decreased, while the proportion of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still maintains a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is still a long - term process [44]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed focuses on, has recently corrected from its high level, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe yield spread is oscillating upwards, while the US - China yield spread has significantly declined [46]. - Trade wars have pushed up US inflation expectations, putting the Fed in a dilemma. The expected real yield of US Treasuries has decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a long - term downward trend but still has strong support [48]. - Regarding the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) of the S&P 500 is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has remained high since Trump took office [49]. - In terms of the capital side, since the beginning of this year, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC holdings have recently decreased overall. The SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have been continuously reducing their positions since 2021, but have shown an increasing trend again since the beginning of this year [52]. - In 2025, the global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central bank investment demand [56]. - The World Silver Institute stated in April that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, dropping to 117.6 million ounces, approximately 3,658 tons [58]. - Most of Trump's policies have not been implemented yet. The policy expectations in the later stage are short - term negative for precious metals. The trade war has reached a stalemate, and the previous positive factors have been reversed [59]. - From a technical analysis perspective, London Gold is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the resistance at 3,400 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 790) and the support at 3,140 (Shanghai Gold's main contract at around 730) [60]. - London Silver is also expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term but remains bullish in the medium - to long - term. Pay attention to whether it can break through the resistance in the 40 range (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 9,700) and the effectiveness of the support at 34.8 (Shanghai Silver's main contract at around 8,400) [63]. - The gold - silver ratio is currently at the 8.23% percentile in the past 20 years, with an average value of 70.3990. The expected interest - rate cut is still far off, and the trade war remains uncertain. Anti - involution commodities are under pressure to correct, and the downward trend of the gold - silver ratio has slowed down [66].

法新社提问：美国总统特朗普签署了一项行政令，对大多数国家实施关税，请问外交部对此有何评论？ 中方：中方反对滥施关税的立场是一贯和明确的，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，搞保护主义损害各方的利 益。 8月1日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 ...

据环球网，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持8月1日例行记者会。会上法新社记者提问称：美国总统特朗普 签署了一项行政令，对大多数国家实施关税。请问外交部对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆对此表示，中方反对滥施关税的立场是一贯和明确的，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，搞保护主义 损害各方的利益。 ...