Boeing has sent a plane to China for the first time since tariff tensions boiled over, ahead of further trade talks between the US and China. The 737 Max touched down in Zhoushan around noon local time on Monday, according to data from FlightAware.It concluded a lengthy transpacific journey that began on Friday, when the plane, registered as N230BE, flew from Seattle to Hawaii. On Saturday, it had another refuelling stop in Guam. China is 16 hours ahead of Seattle, so though the plane arrived three calend ...

研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 20,025.00 | 环比 数据指标 -45.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 2,892.00 | 环比 -9.00↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 95.00 | 0.00 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 78.00 | -9.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 181,672.00 | +214.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 301,043.00 | +2608.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 42,000.00 2,451.50 | -2000.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) -23.50↓ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may present a situation of sufficient supply and slightly subdued demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,719 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,306 lots, down 1,812 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai copper is - 3,406 lots, down 6,378 lots. The LME copper inventory is 132,400 tons, down 5,600 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 107,404 tons, up 1,613 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,800 tons, down 10,000 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 34,242 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper is 78,875 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 70 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 40.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 69.84 dollars/ton, down 23.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The copper smelter's TC is - 43.29 dollars/kiloton, up 0.27 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,170 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,870 yuan/metal ton, up 510 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 125.4 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,540 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 570 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 208.1 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 140.816 billion yuan, up 45.195 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 2772.957 billion yuan, up 782.54 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167 million pieces, down 30,199.9 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.04%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.3%, down 0.06%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money options is 12.58%, up 0.0117%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 0.94, up 0.1413 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and bank regulations. The negotiation on the price commitment of the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage. US employment growth slowed in May, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US imports decreased in April. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still in the contraction range [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated strongly, with reduced open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the US, employment growth slowed, which may give the Fed room to postpone interest rate cuts. In China, infrastructure investment has been improving, but the momentum for expanding effective investment needs to be fully released. The processing fee of copper concentrates remains low, and the international supply of concentrates is tight. Although the domestic port inventory has decreased, it is still sufficient, and the import of scrap copper is expected to increase. The domestic import window has opened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Due to the off - season of consumption, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the spot market trading sentiment has weakened, with a slight increase in domestic inventory. The option market sentiment is gradually balanced, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Monday saw most prices of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures decline, with the main contract EC2508 closing down 2.55% and far - month contracts falling between - 1% and - 1%. Although shipping companies' price hikes on the Asia - Europe route provided slight support, the negative impact of tariff increases remained unimproved [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 369.99 points from last week, a 29.5% increase. The US tariff increase and the Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a weakening US economy, and the European demand was still weak despite a slight PMI recovery [1]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism interest rate by 25 basis points to 2%, the 7th consecutive cut. Sino - US trade frictions and potential US trade strikes on Europe increased the uncertainty of euro - zone growth, and the euro may weaken in the medium - to - long term [1]. - Amid trade war uncertainties and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the demand for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) was expected to cool, with large price fluctuations. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators might drive the futures price up in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 2065.600, down 1343.7 (- 54.1); EC sub - main contract closing price: down 7.70 [1]. - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: down 10.60; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 544.90, down 13.40 from 721.90 [1]. - EC contract basis: - 442.79, up 366.89 [1]. - EC main contract open interest: 44127, down 2100 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (Europe Line) (weekly): 1622.81, up 369.99; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 2185.08, up 466.94 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 2240.35, up 167.64; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), down 0.08 [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1154.98, up 37.37; CCFI (Europe Line) (weekly): 1397.02, up 21.40 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1633.00, down 7.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1246.00, down 35.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 8988.00, up 295.00; average charter price (Capesize ship): 26810.00, up 3533.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - US political disputes: California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass criticized Trump's decision to deploy 2000 National Guard troops in Los Angeles, which led to an escalation of chaos [1]. - Los Angeles Port: About half of the dock workers at the Los Angeles Port had no work from late May to early June. The port's freight volume in May was about 25% lower than expected [1]. - China's rare - earth export control: China, as a responsible major country, reviews rare - earth export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations, has approved a certain number of compliant applications, and will strengthen the approval work. It is willing to communicate with relevant countries on export control [1]. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - June 10, 14:00: UK May unemployment rate - June 10, 16:30: Euro - zone June Sentix investor confidence index - June 10, 16:30: US May NFIB small business confidence index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The leader of Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, suggests that Japan should leverage the expansion of regional free trade agreements as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations with the United States [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief negotiator recently concluded the fifth round of talks in Washington, with little indication that U.S. tariffs will be eased [1] - The opposition leader emphasizes the importance of advancing free trade to potentially prompt the U.S. to reconsider its protectionist stance [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policy - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections are expected to focus heavily on inflation, which may be exacerbated by Trump's trade war [1] - To address the cost of living crisis, the opposition party proposes a one-year suspension of the consumption tax and a one-time cash subsidy of 20,000 yen for each resident [1] - Funding for this initiative is suggested to come from a combination of existing fiscal resources, including fiscal reserves and surplus foreign exchange funds [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - **Silver**: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - **Zinc**: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - **Lead**: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - **Polysilicon**: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - **Coke**: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Pig**: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - **Stock Index**: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]

大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78865，基差-65，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月6日铜库存减5600至132400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

尽管标普500指数（SPX）距历史新高仅一步之遥，但一直难以突破，上周五终于站上6000点这一关键心理关口。根据彭博 社汇编的数据，在上周五之前，该股票基准指数已经连续七个交易日的涨跌幅度都未超过0.6%，这是自去年12月以来最长 的一段平静期。 标普500指数已经连续七个交易日的波幅都未超过0.6% 那么，还有什么可担心的呢？ 随着周三将公布关键的通胀数据，而美联储在6月18日利率决策前进入静默期，基金经理们正在思考，在标普500指数从4月 低点飙升20%之后，什么因素才能推动该指数再创新高？ 财富联盟总裁兼董事总经理埃里克·迪顿（Eric Diton）表示："要让美国股市重回历史新高，我们必须消除不确定性，但在贸 易战的混乱局面得到解决之前，目前大多数推动因素都难以捉摸。"他所在的公司目前正在投资组合中采取对冲措施，以防 范抛售风险。 从美国5月就业增长放缓，到美国服务业和制造业活动低迷，近期经济数据走弱的情况不断累积。然而，市场却对此视而不 见，交易员们乐观地认为，特朗普关税政策可能会避免最坏的结果，因此预计下个月的风险较小。 Wealthspire Advisors的高级副总裁兼顾问奥利弗·珀舍（Ol ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought at low prices; aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see; alumina is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see; lithium carbonate may be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; polysilicon can consider anti - arbitrage strategies and short - selling on rebounds [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term; for iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see; for coking coal, it is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term [4]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are expected to fluctuate; corn futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; sugar is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cotton is advisable to wait and see; palm oil has no major contradictions currently; eggs and hogs are expected to fluctuate, and apples are advisable to wait and see [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; PVC is advisable to wait and see and sell call options above 4850; PTA can be short - sold on processing fees at high prices; rubber is advisable to use an interval trading strategy; glass is recommended to sell call options above 1250; PP is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; MEG is expected to be strong in the short - term, but long positions should be carefully considered; crude oil should be short - sold at high prices; styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and be short - sold at high prices in the long - term; soda ash is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and call options can be sold; caustic soda is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Commodity Futures 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Spot gold fell by more than 1% last Friday, while spot silver continued its upward trend, rising by more than 1.4% before a slight decline [1]. - **News**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8th to 13th and hold the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism; the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 7th consecutive month, with a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces, and the increase rate continues to slow down; Japan's chief trade negotiator and Minister of Economic Revitalization Akera Masaru is going to the US for the fifth round of Japan - US tariff negotiations [1]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, the lowest since February, although higher than market expectations, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 95,000; the unemployment rate was 4.2%, with an unexpected increase in wages but a shrinking labor force; US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion, with student loans soaring to a record high of $1.8 trillion; from January to March 2025, the global real estate investment increased by 34% year - on - year, and the real estate investment in Japan exceeded 2 trillion yen, reaching a quarterly record high, a 23% increase compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic gold ETFs flowed in again the previous day. COMEX gold inventory was 1191 tons with little change, SHFE gold inventory was 17 tons with a slight increase, and London's gold inventory in May was 8598 tons; SHFE silver inventory was 1107 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous day, SGE silver inventory decreased by 49 tons to 1347 tons last week, COMEX silver inventory was 15413 tons, a decrease of 13 tons from the previous day, and London's inventory in May increased by more than 500 tons to 23367 tons; India's silver imports in March decreased to about 120 tons. In April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US increased significantly, and the US market continued to outflow [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, so it is recommended to go long on gold; for silver, considering the increase in London inventory and the change in industrial demand, it is recommended to go short on silver at high prices or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated strongly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Copper prices are in a state of strong overseas and weak domestic. The weakening of the US dollar index supports copper prices, but domestic demand has slowed down, the spot premium has weakened, and the structure has weakened. London inventory has continued to decline, with the cancellation ratio exceeding 60%, and the back has reached over $70. In addition, the phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted market risk appetite [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.30% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 20,070 yuan/ton, with a domestic 3 - month spread of 310 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2450/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity has increased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of aluminum products has decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of alumina is falling, and profits are shifting to the electrolytic aluminum end. Supply may maintain high - load production, while downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the operating rate of some sectors continues to decline. However, low inventory provides support at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [2][3]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 1.43% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2901 yuan/ton, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of 335 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the复产 and new production capacities are continuously being released, and the operating capacity has increased. In terms of demand, electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity is stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The release of alumina's复产 and new production capacities and the accumulation of social inventory have increased supply pressure. Short - sellers are taking the opportunity to push down prices. In the short term, the game between buyers and sellers has intensified. Under the expectation of overall supply - demand surplus, prices may fluctuate weakly, and technical rebounds should be guarded against during the process. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated, closing at 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 22,773 lots to 161,192 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt decreased by 746 lots to 60,573 lots [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price continued to decline, with a narrowing decline. There was no obvious contraction in the supply end, and the number of open furnaces changed little this week. The market is pessimistic about the continuous decline of inventory. On the demand side, the output of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared with May. Pay attention to the resumption of production and operation of enterprises after the holiday. The output of silicone has increased slightly, and the prices in the industrial chain have stopped falling. The operating rate of aluminum alloys is relatively stable [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, domestic macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly. When the valuation is low, it is easily disturbed by market sentiment. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate between 7000 - 7600 yuan. It is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 2507 contract closed at 60,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the output in June is high, and the expectation of production reduction is weak. SMM expects the output of lithium carbonate in June to be 78,875 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87%. The index of imported spodumene concentrate fell further to $626/ton yesterday, and the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene has been greatly repaired, with a weak expectation of production reduction. The output this week was 17,471 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.37%. On the demand side, the overall demand is weak, and the long - term expectation is pessimistic. The consumption of new energy vehicles is lower than expected. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%, while the wholesale sales in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42%. The consumption has recovered month - on - month, but the growth rate is still slow. The consumption electronics market is pessimistic due to the exhaustion of national subsidies in various regions. The demand for energy storage has been released in advance due to the "new - old cut - off" in Document No. 136, and the demand expectation in the second half of the year has weakened significantly. Social inventory is high and showing an upward trend, reaching 132,432 tons (+861 tons), and the warehouse receipt on Friday decreased slightly to 33,309 lots (-12 lots) [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the strong expectation of demand supports prices to fluctuate. The significant repair of lithium salt production profits and the weak reality of rapid production increase make it highly likely that there will still be a surplus in June. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of demand; in the long term, the key to reversing the surplus pattern of lithium salts still lies in the supply side. In the short term, affected by capital and the macro - environment, prices may deviate from fundamentals and show a slight rebound. Short - term profit - taking can be considered, and then short - sell distant - month contracts at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 07 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, closing at 34,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 623 lots to 65,179 lots. The 06 contract has entered the delivery month, and liquidity has weakened. Currently, the contracts still maintain a contango structure. The warehouse receipt has increased to 2460 lots (7380 tons) [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the spot price remained stable. On the supply side, the output in the first week of June decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of production resumption in June, so the output may increase slightly. The industry still has nearly 270,000 tons of inventory. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, but the overall procurement of polysilicon is limited. A photovoltaic industry conference will be held in Shanghai next week. Pay attention to the communication at the conference [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: This week, the warehouse receipt has been increasing continuously, and the logic of warehouse receipt game has weakened. If the warehouse receipt registration exceeds expectations, an anti - arbitrage strategy between 07 and distant - month contracts can be considered. For a single - side position, if there is no further production reduction news, a short - sell on the rebound of the 07 contract can be considered [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main rebar 2510 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 2965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of steel may deteriorate seasonally. The supply and demand of building materials are both weak, but benefiting from low production, the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates has deteriorated slightly. In the environment of the withdrawal of national subsidies, domestic demand may further weaken, but direct exports remain high. Overall, the supply and demand of steel are relatively balanced, and the contradiction is not significant. Steel futures have been at a discount for two consecutive weeks, and the margin has widened. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that steel futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to chase long on the rebar 2510 contract in the short - term. The reference range for RB10 is 2950 - 3000 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main iron ore 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at $704/ton, a decrease of $4.5/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply and demand of iron ore remain moderately strong. According to the data of the Steel Union, the pig iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but still maintains a certain year - on - year increase. After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of steel mills has expanded, and subsequent production will be mainly stable; the supply is in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The supply and demand of iron ore are moderately strong in the short - term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, with a neutral valuation. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment. It is expected that iron ore futures prices will fluctuate strongly this week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The reference range for I09 is 700 - 720 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main coking coal 2509 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 778 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons month - on - month, with a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. The profit margin of steel mills has narrowed, and subsequent production will be mainly stable. The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round of price cuts has been proposed. In terms of supply, the inventory at each link is differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants remain at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at the mine mouth, ports and other links continues to remain at a historical high. At the same time, production has decreased month - on - month, and overall supply and demand are still relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. Futures are basically at par with the spot, and the forward curve is gradually flattening. The news of the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultation is expected to slightly improve market sentiment [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see and try to chase long on the coking coal 2509 contract in the short - term. The reference range for JM09 is 770 - 810 [4]. 3.3 Agricultural Product Market - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans continued to rise, digesting the optimistic expectation of China - US trade [5]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the supply in South America is loose in the short - term, while the sowing of new US soybeans is in the later stage. On the demand side, South America dominates in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand for US soybeans is seasonally weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate; in China, there will be more soybean arrivals in the later stage, with a weak basis, and the single - side price will follow the international market. Attention should be paid to later trade policies and US soybean production [5]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The corn 2507 contract rose

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by factors such as rainfall in the US, Brazilian soybean sales, and trade relations. The new - year US soybean may be in a process of bottom - building, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation with external cost increase and domestic supply pressure [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has short - term support from low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts, but the price is under pressure if the production continues to recover. The overall trend of the oil market is expected to be volatile [6][7][8]. - The sugar market may weaken in the future as the international supply situation eases and domestic imports are expected to increase [10][11]. - The cotton market is expected to have a short - term volatile trend with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [13][15]. - The egg market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term, and the trading strategy is to short on rallies for the near - month contracts [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weak in the short term, with near - month contracts having limited decline due to the discount, and the far - month contracts waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Situation**: US soybean rose slightly on Friday due to Sino - US contact and local drought. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable or slightly up on the weekend, with high supply and weak trading. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate [2]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Future rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is mixed, and Brazilian soybean premiums may rise. The 25/26 US soybean area is decreasing, making the total output likely to decline. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory is low due to previous delayed start - up [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the 09 soybean meal contract, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market at the lower end of the cost range and whether domestic pressure and bullish factors are fully traded at the upper end [5]. Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May and early June. Brazilian soybean sales are delayed. The US soybean yield and planting area estimates are released. The palm oil inventory in some regions is low, and India cut the palm oil import tariff [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market is expected to be volatile, with bearish factors such as the decline of the crude oil center and the possible lower - than - expected US biodiesel policy, and bullish factors such as low inventories in some regions and tariff cuts [8]. Sugar - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong on Friday. Spot sugar prices in different regions had different trends. Brazilian sugar exports to China increased in May, and the waiting and in - transit volume to China remained unchanged [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar supply may be easing, and domestic sugar prices are likely to weaken as imports increase [11]. Cotton - **Key Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded on Friday. The spot price increased slightly, and the spinning and weaving factory start - up rates decreased slightly. The national cotton commercial inventory decreased year - on - year [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals and a still - weak overall commodity market [15]. Eggs - **Spot Information**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. The cold - storage egg reserves increased as prices fell [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be stable and weak. For the near - month contracts, short on rallies, and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts when the position is large [18]. Pigs - **Spot Information**: Pig prices were mainly down on the weekend, with sufficient supply and weak terminal demand due to rising temperatures [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month pig contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - month contracts wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [21].