Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, increasing by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3][4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have risen to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The U.S. government's reopening and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, leading to a decline in overnight financing rates [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to continue their upward momentum, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark in the short term [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and escalating geopolitical risks [1][5]. Gold Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices peaked at $4155.916 per ounce before retreating to around $4130 per ounce, maintaining high volatility [1]. - COMEX gold futures also showed an upward trend, rising by 0.71% to $4123.2 per ounce, with an intraday high of $4133.5 [3]. Domestic Gold Consumption - Domestic gold consumption is on the rise, with major retailers in Shanghai reporting prices for gold jewelry at approximately 1315 CNY per gram, marking recent highs [5]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have surged to 80%, the highest since the October meeting, contributing to the strength of precious metals [5]. - The reopening of the U.S. government and a decrease in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance have injected liquidity into the market, further supporting gold prices [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rebound in the short term, potentially challenging the $4200 per ounce mark [6]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing central bank gold purchases and the irreversible trend of de-dollarization, which is expected to support upward movement in gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have risen due to renewed expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. and signs of tightening supply [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by approximately 0.5% [1] - Recent dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials have led traders to increase bets on a potential interest rate cut in December [1] - Chilean mining authorities have raised their copper price forecasts for the next two years, providing additional support to the market [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Analysts from the Royal Bank of Canada noted that LME futures are in a backwardation state, indicating tightening supply in the near term [1] - Price expectations are projected to slow down over the longer term [1]

（来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 来源：市场投研资讯 美国9月非农新增就业大超预期，失业率小幅抬升，小时工资环比增速放缓。美国9月非农就业人口新增 11.9万人，高于预期值5.1万人和前值-0.4万人。美国9月失业率为4.4%，高于预期值和前值4.3%。美国9 月平均每小时工资环比增长0.2%，低于预期值0.3%和前值0.4%。美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长 3.8%，高于预期值3.7%，与前值持平。 美国服务业延续扩张，制造业景气度略低于预期。美国11月标普服务业PMI录得55%，高于预期值 54.6%和前值54.8%；美国11月标普制造业PMI录得51.9%，略低于预期值52%和前值52.5%。 美国10月成屋销售超预期上行。美国10月成屋销售总数年化环比增长1.2%，高于预期值0.5%，略低于 前值1.3%；美国10月成屋销售总数年化为410万户，高于预期值408万户和前值405万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（11月17日-21日），标普油气指数整周下跌3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌3.07%，标普500指 数整周下跌1.95%，其覆盖的11个行业板块有3个上涨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with limited data available for analysis, particularly regarding retail sales and employment figures, which may impact future market movements [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales month-on-month data is considered important, while the PCE data is unlikely to be released due to the October government shutdown [2]. - The employment data for November will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting, adding to the uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - Predictions for the next three FOMC meetings indicate a 69.4% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% by December 11, 2025, with a decreasing likelihood of this rate in subsequent meetings [3]. - The fluctuating expectations for a rate cut in December have been between 30% and 60%, reflecting the market's uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with traders likely to be less active due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, which may limit market movements [3]. - The gold market is also experiencing a delicate balance, with multiple tests of support levels and a lack of strong downward momentum [4][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The key support level for gold is identified around 4030-4025, with potential downward movement if this level is breached [7]. - The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate important resistance around 4115-4120, which may affect trading strategies [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - The final week of November is expected to be unstable, with traders advised to monitor key levels closely [5][7]. - A simulation trading competition is set to begin on December 1, with the last week for registration [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is gradually digesting the dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the optimistic sentiment from the recent US-China summit, leading to a marginal weakening of the short-term upward momentum in risk assets [1]. Market Trends - US stock index futures collectively declined, while European stock indices mostly rose, and Asian stocks followed the overnight US market's upward trend. The US Treasury yields remained stable, and the dollar index fluctuated slightly above the 100 mark. Gold and silver prices increased, while oil prices fell, and cryptocurrencies experienced a pullback after an initial rise [1][5]. - The market focus is shifting towards the upcoming unemployment claims data to be released on Wednesday, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economic fundamentals and policy calibration [1]. Federal Reserve Signals - Several key Federal Reserve officials have recently reinforced dovish signals, supporting the expectation of a rate cut in December. The probability of a rate cut has exceeded 70% in the current market pricing, although this has shown significant volatility due to internal disagreements among policymakers and the lack of core economic data [2]. Asian Market Performance - Asian stock markets rebounded collectively, driven by optimism surrounding Google's new AI model and reports of the company's plans to develop its own AI chips, boosting investor confidence in the technology sector [3]. Key Market Data - S&P 500 futures fell by 0.13%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped over 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures decreased by 0.15%. European indices opened mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.2% and the German DAX flat. The Nikkei 225 index closed up by 0.1% [5]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.036%, while the dollar index decreased by 0.03% to 100.15. Spot gold rose by 0.02% to $4135 per ounce [5].

Fiscal Policy Insights - In October, general public budget revenue growth was 3.2% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue grew by 8.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to last month, while non-tax revenue plummeted by 33%, a significant drop of 21.5 percentage points[4] - General public budget expenditure fell by 3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in nearly a year[6] - Government fund revenue decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, a sharp decline of 23.7 percentage points from the previous month, with land transfer revenue down by 27.5%[6] Market Trends - The equity market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern until the Central Economic Work Conference in December, with limited risk of a significant downturn due to favorable risk appetite and a loose liquidity environment[2] - Recent dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials have alleviated concerns about a rate hike in December, leading to a slight recovery in market risk appetite[2] - The bond market is anticipated to enter a phase of fluctuation in the short term, influenced by changes in market risk preferences and inflation expectations[12] Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, a significant increase from the previous month's initial value of 97,000[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening labor market[16] - Wage growth showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with year-on-year growth remaining stable at 3.8%[16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve have led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.60% as of 13:30, with notable stock performances including Huaxi Nonferrous rising by 8.49% and Western Gold increasing by 4.60% [1]. - Over the past seven trading days, the non-ferrous metals ETF has seen net inflows for six days, totaling 343 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.241 billion, marking a new high since its inception [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of October 31, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 53.58% of the index [1]. - The top ten stocks by weight are as follows: - Zijin Mining: 16.32% - Northern Rare Earth: 6.60% - Luoyang Molybdenum: 5.96% - Huayou Cobalt: 5.22% - Shandong Gold: 3.85% - Ganfeng Lithium: 3.72% - China Aluminum: 3.53% - Zhongjin Gold: 3.44% - Chifeng Gold: 2.67% - Tianqi Lithium: 2.66% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has strengthened again, with the probability of a December rate cut rising to 80%. Major assets have continued to recover, including a rebound in US stocks, a return of gold prices to $4,100, and an increase in oil prices [2]. - A-share market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, and there is still no clear main line in the short term [2]. - The dovish remarks of Fed officials have boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. Geopolitical uncertainties have also increased the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile due to factors such as the continuous increase in US copper inventories, the Fed's possible interest rate cut, and the complex situation of the copper market at home and abroad [5][6]. - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate, supported by the Fed's dovish remarks, the improvement of risk preference, and the reduction of domestic inventories [7]. - The alumina market remains weak due to supply pressure [8][9]. - The casting aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate, supported by its own cost and relatively balanced supply - demand [10]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term, with the influence of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the balance between multiple and short factors [11]. - The lead price is expected to slow down its decline, and attention should be paid to the support around 17,000 and the change in LME inventories [12]. - The tin price is expected to remain at a high level, supported by the positive fundamentals of supply - demand [13]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the cooling of the industrial product sentiment and the contraction of supply and weak demand [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price may decline in a volatile manner due to the weakening of the long - position sentiment and the slowdown of the destocking rhythm [16][17]. - The nickel price may rebound due to the warming of the interest rate cut expectation and the cost support [18]. - The prices of soda ash and glass may rebound due to the positive signals from the technical side [19]. - The steel price is expected to fluctuate, with the increase in supply pressure and the weakening of downstream demand [20][21]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate due to the large increase in arrivals and the weakening of demand [22]. - The double - coking price is expected to fluctuate, with limited demand support and stable supply [23]. - The soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate, with the increase in soybean meal inventory and the influence of weather and procurement [24][25]. - The palm oil price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the strengthening of the inventory accumulation expectation and the influence of export demand [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has strengthened again. Fed Governor Waller said the labor market is weakening, and the probability of a December rate cut has risen to 80%. Major assets have continued to recover. Attention is paid to the US September retail and PPI data [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated widely and closed up. The trading volume shrank to 1.74 trillion. Growth stocks led the rise. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The money market is loose, and the bond market shows a differentiated trend. The Sino - US leaders' call exceeded expectations. Attention is paid to the October industrial enterprise profit and November PMI data [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver futures rebounded on Monday. Fed officials released dovish signals, enhancing the market's expectation of policy relaxation. Geopolitical uncertainties have also increased the safe - haven demand for gold. The market is waiting for key economic data to further judge the monetary policy trend, and short - term price fluctuations are expected to intensify [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper fluctuated around $10,700. The spot market trading was light. The LME inventory remained at 156,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 409,000 tons. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in December. The Tibet Yulong Copper Mine renovation project has been put into operation, and the cathode copper output is expected to increase significantly. The copper price is expected to remain volatile [5]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,375 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The LME closed at $2,813/ton, up 0.18%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory also decreased. The Fed's dovish remarks have re - heated the interest rate cut expectation, and the aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The spot price decreased. The inventory of the previous period increased. The market is under supply pressure, and the alumina price continues to be weak [8][9]. 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,635 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spot price was flat. The price stopped falling due to cost support and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is expected to stabilize and fluctuate [10]. 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was volatile. The spot market trading was average. The social inventory decreased slightly. The Fed's support for a December rate cut and the Sino - US call have boosted market risk preference. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [11]. 3.8 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead was stable and then declined. The spot market trading was normal. The social inventory decreased slightly. The supply is regionally tight, and the cost support is relatively rigid. The lead price is expected to slow down its decline [12]. 3.9 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose. The social inventory increased slightly, and the refinery's operating rate decreased slightly. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation has boosted market risk preference. The tin price is expected to remain at a high level due to positive fundamentals [13]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon was narrowly volatile. The spot price decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly volatile [14][15]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price was weakly volatile. The spot price decreased. The inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The long - position sentiment weakened, and the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [16][17]. 3.12 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price was strong. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation has boosted market risk preference. The social inventory decreased, but the terminal market has not improved significantly. The nickel price may rebound due to cost support [18]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was volatile, and the main contract of glass was strong. The glass production capacity decreased, and the inventory increased. The soda ash production decreased, and the inventory decreased. The prices of both may rebound due to positive technical signals [19]. 3.14 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rebounded. The spot market trading volume increased. The cost of electric arc furnaces decreased, and the profit increased. The supply pressure increased, and the downstream demand weakened. The steel price is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rebounded. The port spot trading volume increased. The arrival volume increased significantly, and the supply pressure is high. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [22]. 3.16 Double - Coking - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The coal mine production was affected by the weather, and the demand from downstream steel mills is weak. The double - coking price is expected to fluctuate [23]. 3.17 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal contract fell slightly, and the rapeseed meal contract rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is about 80%. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased, and the soybean meal inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory is low, and the rapeseed meal supply is tight. The prices are expected to fluctuate [24][25]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil contract fell. The prices of other oils also decreased. The Malaysian palm oil export demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strengthened. The palm oil price is expected to be weakly volatile [26][27].