如今，在美国新一届政府加征关税举措负面影响持续发酵的局面下，继续维持利率可能加剧经济放缓， 甚至触发衰退，转向宽松则可能重燃通胀之火。站在岔路口的美联储"按兵不动"之举看似审慎，却也难 逃回避责任、以拖待变的嫌疑。在滞胀阴云逐渐笼罩美国经济的2025年，这种犹豫不决不仅会错失政策 调整的黄金窗口，更可能将美国经济推入"硬着陆"的深渊。 （文章来源：经济日报） 经济数据的矛盾性进一步压缩了美联储政策调整的空间。一段时间以来，美国经济呈现出罕见的自相矛 盾特征：一方面，消费支出与股市表现显露一定韧性，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）偶尔闪现复苏信 号；另一方面，就业市场已现疲态，失业率悄然攀升，商业投资意愿持续低迷。这种状态下，美联储无 论是将数据波动简单归结为短期扰动，还是明确经济步入下行通道，都无法令市场信服。因此美联储的 决策者选择了等待，以确认更清晰的经济轨迹浮现后再做决策。 在美国新一届政府的持续压力下，美联储坚持暂缓降息也有维护"独立性"形象与市场信誉的考虑。近年 来，从误判通胀导致激进加息，到应对经济放缓时的政策反复，美联储的决策权威已遭受多重冲击。分 析认为，面对新一届美国政府的公开喊话与舆论压力，美 ...

Group 1 - The chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chris Williamson, indicates that while tariffs dominate news regarding manufacturing, the larger U.S. services sector is developing a concerning backdrop with a significant drop in business confidence, leading to near stagnation in business activity and hiring in April [1] - Service providers, particularly in the financial services sector, are reporting a noticeable weakening in growth prospects due to recently announced tariffs and ongoing federal spending cuts, which exacerbate economic uncertainty [1] - A key area of weakness is the decline in service exports, which is currently decreasing at a rate not seen since 2022, and there are reports of weakening domestic demand as confidence declines [1] Group 2 - Tariffs have led to rising import prices, increasing costs for service sector businesses, particularly in consumer-facing industries such as restaurants and hotels, resulting in price hikes [1] - The outcome of these factors is a stagnation in service sector growth and an increased risk of inflation or stagflation [1]

1. 5月5日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.62%，标普500指数期货跌0.77%，纳指期货跌 0.95%。 盘前市场动向 4000美元!高盛重申"金牛"预测。受美元走软支撑，黄金周一走强。截至发稿，黄金期货涨超2%，报约3325美元/盎司;黄金现货 涨超2%，报约3317美元/盎司。黄金价格今年迄今已飙升近四分之一，4月曾触及每盎司3500美元以上的纪录高位，但在过去几 周有所回落，早些时候的上涨主要由特朗普极具破坏性的贸易和地缘政治政策引发的避险买盘、投机性需求和全球央行的买盘 推动。周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因此，该行预计白银 不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到 3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 欧佩克+增产暴击油价至四年低位，华尔街紧急下调预期。沙特主导的激进举措正在重塑全球石油市场格局——通过欧佩克+大 幅增产，这一行动正迫使华尔街分析师纷纷下调油 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" has exceeded market expectations, leading to significant financial market turbulence and raising concerns about the economic impact and potential recession in the U.S. [1][20][79] - The average tariff rate for all imported goods in the U.S. has risen to 27% (24% after exemptions), with tariffs on Chinese goods reaching 146.2%, contributing 20 percentage points to the overall rate [6][79][80] - The economic effect of tariffs is characterized as "stagflation," with market debates focusing on the balance between stagnation and inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy response [8][20][80] Group 2 - The probability of a U.S. recession is expected to rise significantly if tariff levels remain unchanged or are only slightly eased, with the market likely to grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation in the coming quarters [2][20][74] - The typical recession path in the U.S. involves overheating, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, credit contraction, and either hard or soft landings, but current economic structures do not align with this typical path [3][25][81] - Private capital expenditure has historically been a major contributor to GDP contraction during recessions, with an average GDP shrinkage of 1.7% during such periods, primarily driven by declines in private capital spending [3][25][36][81] Group 3 - Financial vulnerabilities have emerged since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, with significant pressure on U.S. capital markets, including stocks, bonds, and currencies [4][49][50] - Short-term refinancing pressures in U.S. Treasury and corporate debt markets are a primary concern, but the transmission of liquidity shocks to systemic financial pressures remains manageable [49][50][62] - The Federal Reserve's independence and fiscal sustainability are critical factors influencing the credit risk associated with the U.S. dollar and Treasury securities in the long term [50][62][74]

Core Insights - The upcoming macro environment for the bond market may be more favorable, potentially breaking the previous price range of sideways movement, with an increased likelihood of long-term government bond yields breaking downward [1][4][33] Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, global stock markets performed notably well, with technology stocks leading the gains in both Hong Kong and the US markets, which in turn boosted European and other Asian stock markets [1][11] - The bond market showed divergence, with 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rising by 23 basis points and 16 basis points respectively, while Japanese bond yields decreased and German bond yields remained stable [1][11] - The US dollar index rebounded, appreciating against major currencies like the yen, euro, and pound, but depreciated against the offshore yuan [1][11] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - In April, the US PCE index grew by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations, while core PCE growth was 2.6%, indicating a further cooling of core inflation [2][12] - The US labor market remains resilient, with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, surpassing expectations of 130,000, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [2][16] - The first quarter GDP for 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3%, significantly below the expected -0.2%, marking the lowest growth since Q1 2022 [2][21] Group 3: Domestic Bond Market Outlook - The probability of long-term government bond yields breaking downward is expected to increase, as the current tightening of funds is less likely, and any degree of easing would be viewed positively for the bond market [4][29][33] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell by 1.5 percentage points to 49.0% in April, indicating short-term economic pressure, but the long-term positive fundamentals are expected to remain intact despite trade frictions [4][29] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are likely to be complex, but the short-term impact on the bond market is expected to be more positive than negative [4][32][33]

在美联储本周再次召开议息会议之际，它面临的最大问题是如何努力应对关税引发的粘性通胀与经济放 缓之间的"拉锯战"，以及一位想要更宽松货币政策的美国总统。 美联储对于这个困境的解决方式，可能意味着美国未来几个月的利率走向。 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎态度不满，鲍威尔曾表示，美联储将"等待更明朗的情况"，同时权衡其稳 定物价和充分就业的双重使命。他上月表示，经济在"今年剩余时间，或者至少不会取得太大进展"的情 况下，将极有可能偏离美联储的两个目标。 上周公布的经济、就业和通胀新报告加剧了美联储面临的困境。GDP报告显示，美国经济在2025年初出 现三年来的首次萎缩，这主要归因于进口商为了赶在特朗普总统关税生效前抢购；上周五公布的4月就 业报告也显示，即使在特朗普"解放日"声明震动市场后的几周内，劳动力市场依然保持韧性。 美联储偏好的通胀指标显示，3月物价年化增长率放缓至2.6%，但该季度仍高于预期的3.5%。这两个数 据都高于美联储2%的目标。 一些经济学家预计未来几个月通胀将进一步走高，经济将进一步下滑。 "拉锯战" 美国总统特朗普近几周已明确表达了他的观点：他希望在经济可能因其贸易政策放缓之前降息。 Wilmi ...

Group 1 - The trade war is impacting the U.S. consumer market as new tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods will increase retail prices [1] - The resumption of federal student loan repayments will affect 5 million borrowers, leading to immediate wage garnishments and tax refund intercepts [1] - A wave of layoffs is anticipated in the U.S. port and freight industries due to reduced orders from importers seeking to avoid tariffs, resulting in a significant drop in container throughput [1] Group 2 - The federal government is experiencing a growing wave of layoffs, with thousands of positions already cut across various agencies, including postal and agricultural departments [1] - The underground labor market is expanding as the Department of Homeland Security and ICE are enforcing stricter immigration policies, impacting industries reliant on low-wage workers [1] - Inflation and rising unemployment are creating a stagflation scenario in the U.S., complicating monetary policy for the Federal Reserve [2]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top forecasters warn that tariffs may trigger an economic recession, yet the stock market appears largely unaffected by these warnings [1][2]. Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs estimates a 45% chance of recession within the next 12 months, while Apollo Global Management's chief economist places it at 90% [2]. - The S&P 500 index recently completed its longest nine-day rally since 2004, rising approximately 10% and recovering from a significant drop following President Trump's tariff announcement [2]. - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is down only 3.1%, indicating limited investor concern about future economic conditions [2]. Consumer Behavior and Economic Indicators - Despite ongoing uncertainties, consumer confidence has not significantly changed, although potential risks remain [4]. - Economists suggest that even low tariff levels could have a cascading effect on the U.S. economy, impacting consumer spending, business investment, and employment [4]. - A recent report indicated that inflation-adjusted household spending surged by 0.7% in March, exceeding expectations, possibly driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [4]. - Visa reported no signs of overall weakness in credit card spending as of April 21 [4]. Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - Raymond James' chief investment officer emphasizes the importance of monitoring credit card data as a potential warning signal for economic conditions [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists believe the impact of tariffs may take two to three months to reflect in inflation data, predicting a slowdown in consumer spending soon [5]. - Vanguard has lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for the year to below 1%, citing tariffs and policy uncertainties, and expects inflation to reach 4% by year-end [5]. Stock Market Dynamics - While overall stock performance is strong, there are underlying concerns, with a few large tech companies driving the rebound [6]. - Defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities are performing well, while economically sensitive sectors such as energy and discretionary spending lag behind [6]. - Interest rate futures traders are now confident that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at least three times this year, with a 63% chance of recession predicted by market bettors, up from 40% in March [6]. - The excess CAPE yield, a measure of risk compensation for holding stocks over bonds, was only 1.8% at the end of April, about half of its 50-year average [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected increase of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - Despite strong job growth, there are indications of employment pressure among U.S. residents, with many struggling to find work after being laid off [1] - The impact of Trump's trade policies is still unfolding, with significant layoffs in the federal government and potential supply chain disruptions affecting major retailers like Walmart and Target [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, which is perceived to serve Wall Street rather than reflect the realities of residents' lives [2] - Warren Buffett criticized current U.S. trade policies and highlighted the unsustainable nature of the fiscal deficit, emphasizing the risks of currency devaluation [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of over $347 billion, indicating Buffett's cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected non-farm data temporarily stabilized U.S. stocks, but it led to a downward adjustment in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs now predicting a cut in July instead of June [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump's tariff policies could have significant negative impacts, potentially leading the U.S. into recession [3] - There is a growing disconnect between the seemingly positive economic data and the underlying realities, suggesting that financial risks in the U.S. may need to be carefully monitored [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent decline in international gold prices has led to a significant drop in gold jewelry prices, prompting brands to offer substantial discounts to attract consumers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - COMEX gold futures closed at $3247.4 per ounce on May 2, down 7.48% from the April 22 peak of $3509.9 per ounce [1]. - Major jewelry brands have seen their gold prices fall below 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices reported at 987 yuan for Lao Miao and 998 yuan for brands like Liufu and Chow Tai Fook [3]. Group 2: Consumer Demand and Market Response - The World Gold Council reported a total global gold demand of 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, but gold jewelry demand has hit its lowest point since 2020 due to high gold prices [4]. - In China, gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption down 26.85% [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Economic Factors - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that the core logic driving gold prices upward is the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global supply chains and the dollar-centric monetary system, which may increase demand for gold [5]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting, with a 97.2% probability of no rate change [5][6].