贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

1、特朗普恢复与欧盟为期90天的贸易谈判窗口，此前冯德莱恩主动与之联系。此前特朗普称与欧盟的 讨论毫无进展，建议从6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税；欧盟委员会拒绝就美国贸易关税发表评 论，直到欧盟贸易专员与美国贸易代表通电话。 2、美国财长贝森特：50%的关税威胁是对欧盟行动速度的回应，希望这样做能激励欧盟采取行动。美 国在与印度及亚洲国家的贸易谈判方面已取得了显著进展。将在未来90天内宣布更多协议；特朗普政府 暂停了创建主权财富基金的计划。 北京时间周一（5月26日）亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.90附近，现货白银今日开盘于33.44美元/盎 司，目前交投于33.50美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8250元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8280元/千克附 近。日内无可关注的数据及事件，另外，由于美国阵亡将 纪念 ，贵金属市场将于美盘时段提前休市， 故此日内白银价格波动走势有限，或震荡走盘对待。 上周五(5月23日)美元指数跌0.81%，收报99.13，现货白银收涨33.48美元/盎司，上涨1.33%，在现货白 银上涨之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货黄金上涨1.89%，报3357.00美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent surge in gold prices due to heightened market risk aversion following U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, with gold prices increasing nearly 2% on Friday and a weekly gain of approximately 5% [1][2] - The significant rise in gold prices is attributed to growing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade relations, which are expected to continue influencing market reactions [1][2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong bullish trend for gold, with key support levels identified at 3315 and resistance levels at 3370, suggesting potential trading strategies for investors [4][5] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data releases, including April durable goods orders and the PCE price index, are anticipated to impact market sentiment and gold prices, with a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [2][5] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. Senate discussions on spending bills and trade negotiations with major partners, as any lack of progress could lead to further inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - The articles emphasize the importance of risk management and strategic trading approaches, advising investors to consider both short and long positions based on market conditions and technical indicators [5][6]

大家好，今天咱们来聊聊美联储、关税，还有最近被抛售得惨兮兮的国债市场。 先说美联储理事沃勒，他最近出来开了个发布会，说了句很有分量的话："我们不会在一级市场买国债。" 什么意思？简单讲，美联储这意思就是："我可以陪你过冬，但别指望我给你交暖气费。"财政部你自己去发债，别想让我来抬轿子。美联储直接把锅盖一 掀，表示：这摊子事儿，不归我管！ 接着沃勒话锋一转，说——"如果我们能把关税控制在10%左右，7月份前搞定，那我们就有可能在下半年降息。" 你听这个"如果"，是不是很眼熟？对！这就跟你问老板："年底有年终奖吗？"老板说："如果公司盈利、市场稳定、大家努力、我心情好……"，所以那基 本上就是没有了。 那为啥没人买呢？沃勒说，市场在担心：共和党那边正在推进新的税改法案，很多人原本期待政府会节制点财政开支，结果一看——不但不省钱，还想花 更多！ 特朗普那会儿搞的减税政策，现在还想再续上，债务上限还要拉高，赤字飙涨，美联储一看：这要真批了，我们前面升息升的努力……直接白搭！ 总结一下现在的情况就是—— 财政部像是疯狂剁手的月光族孩子，美联储像是严肃精打细算的老父亲，而市场投资者就夹在中间一边看着老爸皱眉头，一边帮孩子 ...

期货热点追踪 黄金3250美元支撑暗藏玄机！市场押注美联储9月出手，金银铜未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

近期，印尼盾汇率走强，截至5月20日，印尼盾对美元汇率较4月底升值1.13%。对此，印尼央行指出， 印尼盾汇率波动处于符合国内经济基本面的区间内，有助于维护经济稳定。 【导读】印尼央行宣布降息25个基点 5月21日，印尼央行如期降息25个基点。 降息25个基点至5.50% 5月21日，印尼央行发布消息，将基准利率（BI-Rate）下调25个基点至5.50%，存款便利利率下调25个 基点至4.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至6.25%。 印尼央行表示，这一决定符合2025年和2026年通胀率预测——维持在低位并控制在2.5±1%的目标范围 内，旨在根据印尼盾基本面维持汇率稳定，推动经济增长。 印尼央行表示，印尼经济增长需持续加强，以缓解美国互惠关税政策带来的全球不确定性影响。2025年 第一季度经济同比增长4.87%，低于2024年四季度的5.02%。结合一季度GDP表现及全球经济动态，印 尼央行预测今年经济增长区间为4.6%至5.4%，略低于此前预测的4.7%至5.5%。因此，需通过加强国内 需求及优化出口增长机遇等措施，进一步强化政策应对，以推动经济增长。 印尼央行称，未来将继续引导货币政策，确保通胀率 ...

近期，金融市场的风云变幻吸引着全球目光，而美联储在其中扮演着关键角色。在一系列复杂事件的交织下，美联储的政策走 向愈发引人关注。 关税政策影响难测，经济数据走势不明 美联储官员表示，当前经济数据走势尚未能全面反映关税政策的影响。6 月及 7 月的数据，难以成为评估关税政策对美国经济数 据走势影响的可靠依据。这使得美联储在制定政策时，面临更多不确定性。在这种情况下，市场对美联储 6 月 18 日利率决议产 生诸多猜测。目前，市场预测央行将联邦基金利率范围维持在 4.25 - 4.50% 的概率约为 92.3%，而降息至 4.25 - 4.00% 的可能性 约为 7.7%。 市场走势受多因素牵动，美元指数前景堪忧 周二，美元指数走势回落至 100 关口下方。近期，美元以及美国国债走势均呈回落态势，这主要是受机构下调美国信贷评级的 影响，美元价值受到冲击，美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力也大打折扣。此外，特朗普亲自出席国会减税法案，使得市场高度 聚焦美国财政政策前景。一旦出现不明朗因素，不仅可能影响近期美元指数行情走势，令其维持走弱方向，还可能引发市场投 资者对美国政府治理能力的担忧，进一步加剧市场的不稳定。 评级下调 ...

Group 1: Core Reasons for Gold Price Decline - Strengthening US Dollar and Federal Reserve Policy: The rebound of the US dollar index has decreased the attractiveness of gold, as the market anticipates a delay in interest rate cuts due to the Federal Reserve's high rate expectations [1] - Increased Rate Hike Expectations: If the US April CPI data exceeds expectations, it may lead to further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - Easing Geopolitical Risks: Progress in US-China trade negotiations and a reduction in concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict have diminished the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Factors - Technical Sell-off: Gold prices breaking below key support levels (e.g., $3300/oz) have triggered algorithmic trading sell-offs, creating a vicious cycle of "sell more as prices drop" [5] - Profit-Taking by Bulls: Investors have chosen to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, leading to increased short-term selling pressure [6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Data Impact - Positive US Economic Data: Strong non-farm payroll data and a rebound in manufacturing PMI have alleviated recession fears, making risk assets like stocks more attractive and prompting funds to exit the gold market [8] - Rising Real Interest Rates: Increasing US Treasury yields have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing investors towards higher-yielding bonds or other assets [8] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Slowing Central Bank Gold Purchases: While central banks have been increasing gold holdings in the long term, a short-term reduction in purchases (e.g., China pausing gold buying) may exacerbate market volatility [9] - Market Speculation: Some investors using leverage or loans for gold trading have been forced to liquidate positions due to price declines, further amplifying market volatility [10] Group 5: Other Contributing Factors - Normalization of Gold Premiums: The previous concerns over US tariffs on gold that led to inflated premiums are dissipating, reducing arbitrage opportunities and causing a decline in physical demand [11] - Consumer Demand Hesitance: With falling gold prices, consumer expectations of further declines have led to a temporary freeze in purchasing intentions, resulting in weak short-term demand [12]