在 2025 年贵金属市场的火热行情中，白银不再是黄金的 "陪衬"，凭借凌厉的涨势成功逆袭，不仅接连刷新国际、国内多项价格纪录，更以超 95% 的年内累 计涨幅大幅跑赢黄金，稳稳占据贵金属 "领涨王" 宝座。Wind 数据显示，国际市场上，COMEX 白银、伦敦现货白银已分别创下 57.245 美元 / 盎司、56.533 美元 / 盎司的历史新高；国内市场同步走强，沪银期货主力连续合约突破 13000 元 / 千克大关，最高触及 13239 元 / 千克，创下上市以来的峰值表现。 图源网络 复盘全年行情，白银的牛市脉络清晰且爆发力十足。10 月 9 日晚间，现货白银迎来历史性突破，盘中首次站上 50 美元 / 盎司关口；涨势延续至 10 月 17 日，冲高至 54.468 美元 / 盎司后进入高位震荡阶段，期间曾一度回调至 45.513 美元 / 盎司。11 月起，白银重拾上涨动能，从 48 美元 / 盎司一线震荡攀升， 再度突破 50 美元关口并触及 54.394 美元，经过短暂整理后，于 11 月 28 日迎来关键突破，当日最大涨幅超 6%，成功站上 56 美元 / 盎司整数关口，触及 56.533 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in silver prices, driven by a combination of factors including supply shortages, increased industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have collectively contributed to a bullish outlook for silver and other precious metals [5][6][7]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has experienced a remarkable increase, with prices reaching $57 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of 98% [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract price surged to 13,520 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of over 7% and marking eight consecutive months of price growth [1][7]. - The World Silver Association forecasts a narrowing of the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces by 2025, with total supply expected to rise by 2% and demand to decrease by 1% [9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 87.4% according to CME data, which is expected to support precious metal prices [5][6]. - The market is closely watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is a key inflation indicator, with expectations of a slight increase in the overall PCE year-on-year growth to 2.8% [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly allocating funds to silver through various channels, including ETFs and futures contracts, with global silver ETF holdings rising significantly [10]. - Retail investors are also showing heightened interest in silver, with sales of silver bars and coins increasing by over 40% year-on-year, reflecting the metal's appeal as a "people's precious metal" [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 金银整体走强，白银涨幅更甚 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-01 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4218.550 | 4064.279 | 154.271 | 3.80% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 953.92 | 926.94 | 26.98 | 2.91% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -5.88 | -5.01 | -0.87 | 17.37% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -4.81 | -0.15 | -4.66 | 3106.67% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Silver has entered the accelerated topping phase, and it is expected that there will still be significant intraday price increases next week. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg above. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks [2][3]. - Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,256.40 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.44%. Shanghai Gold closed at 959.82 yuan/g, up 0.97%. The trading volume of COMEX gold decreased by 19.20% to 149,900 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Gold decreased by 32.04% to 235,300 lots. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index was 99.49 [2][5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver closed at $57.09 per ounce, with a daily increase of 6.18%. Shanghai Silver closed at 13,191.00 yuan/kg, up 5.17%. The trading volume of COMEX silver decreased by 11.08% to 2,034,400 lots, and the trading volume of Shanghai Silver increased by 44.53% to 1,248,780 tons [2][5]. 3.2 Reasons for Silver's Accelerated Rise - Historically, silver price increases driven by the Fed's monetary policy often show a "two - stage" pattern. In the second stage of each rise, international silver prices tend to rise rapidly, with single - day positive line increases of over 5%. The current technical trend of silver clearly conforms to the characteristics of the second - stage rise in previous cycles. The first stage of the current silver rise was from August 22 to October 6, and the second stage is from November 7 to the present [2]. - As of Friday's close, the position of COMEX silver December contract was 9,866 lots, equivalent to 1,534 tons. The total inventory of COMEX silver is currently 14,207 tons, at a high level in the same period of the past five years under the influence of Trump's tariff policy expectations in the first half of the year. Even if some positions are locked by ETFs, the current overseas position and inventory levels still do not indicate "delivery difficulties" [2]. 3.3 Investment Strategies - **Silver**: Since the silver price has entered the accelerated rise stage, focus on the upper pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, timely profit - taking is required. Opening new long positions or short - selling at high levels at this stage carry relatively high risks. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 12,366 - 14,500 yuan/kg [3]. - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold is still in a breakthrough pattern at the end of the triangular convergence. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 927 - 982 yuan/g [3]. 3.4 Data Tables and Charts - Multiple data tables and charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and other data, as well as the relationship between gold and silver prices and factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and the comparison of domestic and foreign prices [5][7][9][11][15][17][19][26][28][30][38][42][46][49][51][53].

编辑 ｜ 钉钉 11月28日晚间，现货白银涨超2%，报54.668美元/盎司，创历史新高；上期所沪银期货涨超2.5%，刷新 历史新高。 现货黄金同样加速走高，日内涨0.82%，现报4191.03美元/盎司。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. With uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, the international gold price is approaching its historical high, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level [1] - On the first day of the listing of palladium options, market trading was relatively dull. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds clearly returned to rationality. There are signs of a peace negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Palladium has limited consumption growth prospects, while platinum has a supply contraction in South Africa, a wide range of end - consumption fields, and a supply - demand gap this year. It is advisable to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [2] - There are ongoing discussions about the peace plan between Ukraine and the US. Different stances are shown by both sides. The European Central Bank's outlook remains unclear, and there is an opinion that the interest rate cut cycle has ended. The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] Specific Content Summaries Precious Metals Market - Overnight, precious metals were in a strong sideways trend. The international gold price is approaching its historical high, and uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects persist [1] - On the first day of palladium option listing, market trading was dull with an implied volatility of around 30% for at - the - money options. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds became more rational. Platinum is stronger than palladium, and it is advisable to buy on dips and conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [2] Geopolitical Situation - Ukrainian and US delegations will continue work on the peace plan this weekend. Germany believes Ukraine needs strong armed forces and security guarantees even after a peace agreement. Russia has expressed its stances on issues such as US missile deployment and Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that the outlook is still unclear, and there is a view that the interest rate cut cycle has ended [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.1%. By next January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, maintaining the rate is 9.6%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1% [3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11. 28」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 ◆ 行情回顾：美联储降息预期大幅抬升，贵金属市场本周偏强运行。宏观数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心 PPI环比上涨0.1%，较前值有所抬升，但主要由食品能源价格上涨驱动，核心商品PPI增速有所放缓；ADP就业报告显 示，截至2025年11月8日四周内，美国私营企业雇主平均每周削减13,500个岗位，较前值每周减少2,500人的幅度显著 扩大，美国就业市场延续降温态势。联储内部表态整体呈鸽派基调，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示在劳动力走软背景下 存在降息空间，旧金山联储主席戴利支持下次会议降息，理事米兰重申应在通胀尚高时实施更大幅度降息，美联储12 月降息25个基点的概率由上周五的40%大幅抬升至86.9%，降息预期提振市场乐观交易情绪。地缘方面，美乌完成一份 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weak economic data from the United States and increased expectations for interest rate cuts are driving up precious metal prices, with heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in European energy markets [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices are maintained above $4,000, influenced by a weaker dollar and market expectations regarding the "Hassett Federal Reserve" policy framework [1] - Silver has shown stronger performance compared to gold [1] - If interest rates are cut in December and Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chair, gold and silver prices are expected to rise further [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - In the medium to long term, the central tendency of gold prices is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating in subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETF (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETF (517400) that covers the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - This year has been significant for precious metals, with gold and silver experiencing substantial price increases, attracting investor attention. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold compared to silver and platinum, citing higher certainty in its performance [1]. Group 1: Price Increases and Market Dynamics - From the beginning of 2025 to the present, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen by 66%, 65%, and 50% respectively, driven by capital inflows from private investors following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and expectations that these metals could catch up to gold's performance [4]. - Speculation regarding increased jewelry demand in China has led to a surge in platinum prices, prompting Western investors to allocate funds to smaller, less liquid markets like platinum after gold's rise [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has increased volatility in these metals, as they are included in the U.S. "Critical Minerals List," which could face tariffs up to 50% [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Rental Markets - Gold is less susceptible to short-term physical squeezes due to the availability of large institutional reserves, unlike silver, platinum, and palladium, which lack such liquidity support [6]. - Tightening London inventories have led to increased rental rates for metals, as traders turn to the rental market to alleviate liquidity pressures [6]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Implications - The likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on silver, platinum, and palladium is low, as domestic production is limited and tariffs would likely increase costs without significantly boosting supply [8]. - U.S. domestic mining capacity for platinum and palladium is currently underutilized, and even full production would only marginally reduce net import volumes [9]. Group 4: Inventory Trends and Market Mechanisms - The increase in U.S. exchange inventories reflects the "spot-to-futures" mechanism between London and New York, rather than a directional judgment on tariffs [12]. - The potential for U.S. tariffs introduces delivery risks, prompting traders to preemptively allocate metals to the U.S. to mitigate exposure to tariff uncertainties [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - High volatility is expected to persist until U.S. trade measures are clarified, which would allow metals to return to London and ease inventory tightness [17]. - Platinum and palladium may face dual industrial demand pressures, with speculative price increases leading to delayed purchases by industrial consumers [18]. - Gold remains the most reliable investment choice among precious metals due to its structural support from central bank purchases and ETF demand, while silver, platinum, and palladium have higher uncertainty in their outlooks [21][22].

德银表示，黄金刚性的官方需求正在取代价格敏感型的消费需求，预计2026年官方需求将回升至1053吨/年，同时黄金ETF资金流入的正常化，将2026 年平均价格目标从此前的4000美元/盎司大幅上调至4450美元/盎司。白银、铂金和钯金共同迎来上涨利好，德银预计明年白银和铂金的供需将持续处于 赤字状态，白银2026年目标价高至55美元/盎司。 据追风交易台，德银在最新报告中大幅上调预期， 将2026年平均价格目标从此前的4000美元/盎司上调至4450美元/盎司，年度价格区间预计为3950- 4950美元/盎司， 最高可能触及4950美元/盎司意味着金价或冲击5000美元大关。 德银指出，这种结构性牛市的驱动力已发生根本转变，刚性的官方购买正在取代价格敏感型的消费需求。正如报告所强调的： 缺乏价格弹性的央行购买和ETF投资需求，正在取代对价格敏感的珠宝消费需求，成为黄金市场的主导力量。同时，总体需求增长超过供应增长，这种供需错配 为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑。 尽管看多逻辑坚实，德银也提示了潜在的下行风险。若股市出现深度回调，或美联储2026年宽松力度不及市场预期（德银预测降息50个基点，低于市 场预期的93个基 ...