Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a two-week high, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Japan, with prices closing at $9,930.5 per ton, up $11 or 0.11% [1] - COMEX copper prices increased by 1.84% to $5.8265 per pound, with a record high of $5.93 earlier, driven by the anticipation of a 50% tariff on imported copper by the US starting August 1 [3] - The market sentiment improved following the US-Japan trade agreement, contributing to a rise in global stock markets and increasing investor interest in potential US-China trade agreements [3] Group 2 - Concerns over copper supply surplus persisted, with a reported surplus of 272,000 tons in the first five months of the year, leading to pressure on the market [4] - LME three-month aluminum prices fell by $7.5 or 0.28%, closing at $2,651.0 per ton, marking the worst performance among base metals on that day [4] - LME three-month tin prices rose by $945 or 2.79%, closing at $34,853.0 per ton, indicating strong demand despite overall market pressures [5]

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices slightly retreated to $3,390 per ounce, ending a two-day rally, but overall upward momentum remains supported by safe-haven demand amid unresolved US-EU trade negotiations and challenges to Federal Reserve policy independence [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is still in an upward channel, with a short-term pullback potentially setting the stage for a new rally [3] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating that bulls are still in control [3] - Short-term resistance is at $3,452 (three-month high), and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards historical highs of $3,500 and even the channel's upper limit of $3,630 [3] - Initial support is at the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $3,358, with a breakdown pointing to the channel's lower limit and the 50-day moving average at $3,316 [3] - The gold market is currently at the intersection of increasing macro uncertainty and technical consolidation [3] - Despite a short-term pressure from a rebound in the US dollar, factors such as stalled trade negotiations and escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve continue to provide strong medium-term upward momentum [3] - It is expected that gold prices will oscillate between $3,350 and $3,450, and if safe-haven sentiment persists, a breakthrough above key resistance could lead to a move towards $3,500 [3] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A trading strategy suggests looking for a short position in gold within the range of $3,393 to $3,395, with a stop-loss above $3,405 and a target at $3,375 to $3,373 [5] - Another recommendation indicates a long position at $3,360, with a stop-loss at the morning low of $3,344 and a target of $3,382 [6]

Group 1 - The market continues to be pressured by ongoing concerns over supply surplus, impacting prices significantly [1] - ICE raw sugar is facing a critical test at 16 cents, with potential for further declines if it breaks below this level [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing a slight decline due to weak demand, policy impacts, and supply expansion, with a notable decrease in gasoline demand during the summer driving peak season [1][2][3] Group 1: Demand Weakness - The summer driving peak season has seen an unexpected decline in gasoline demand, with daily supply dropping by 670,000 barrels to 8.5 million barrels [2][3] - The increase in distillate oil inventory and rising stocks at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, indicate a fundamental weakness in end-user consumption [1][3] - The trade tensions stemming from President Trump's tariff policies have significantly weakened global energy consumption expectations, leading to a chain reaction of deteriorating demand [3][4] Group 2: Policy Impact - The ongoing tariff war has triggered a complex crisis, impacting both demand prospects and increasing market uncertainty through supply chain disruptions [4] - Trump's denial of plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell provided a temporary boost to market sentiment, but the Fed's interest rate decisions continue to exert long-term pressure on oil prices [4] - The geopolitical context, including the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has further diminished risk premiums, stripping away price support [4] Group 3: Supply Expansion - Morgan Stanley warns of a potential return to supply surplus after the summer demand peak, indicating that OPEC's production strategies and U.S. capacity expansions are contributing to this trend [2][4] - The expected increase in OECD inventories could reach levels not seen since 2017, which corresponds to Brent crude prices around $65 per barrel, reflecting a dilution of oil's scarcity value [2][4] - The long-term forecast suggests Brent crude prices may stabilize at $60 per barrel by 2026, indicating a trend of devaluation in oil's soft power [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a strong expectation of oversupply in the alumina market, leading to a continued decline in alumina futures [1] - Short-term analysis suggests that due to industry anti-involution and low warehouse support, the downward space for alumina is limited [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, with a notable focus on Guinea's aluminum oxide company asset inspections and the overall supply-demand balance in the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On July 16, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3111.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.58% [1]. - The national average spot price for aluminum oxide was reported at 3191 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 5 CNY/ton, while the discount was 99 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Guinea's aluminum oxide company (GAC) has initiated a comprehensive asset inventory, with government oversight on strategic mining equipment [2]. - The current supply situation remains generally loose, despite localized tightness providing some support for spot prices [3]. - The production capacity of aluminum oxide is steadily increasing, primarily due to the resumption of operations after maintenance, leading to record-high output levels [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - According to Wenguang Futures, there is a mid-term expectation for a price increase, driven by a strong market sentiment and low registered warehouse receipts for aluminum oxide. However, the overcapacity issue persists, anchoring prices to production costs [3]. - Newhu Futures suggests that while there is some upward pressure on prices due to localized supply tightness, the overall expectation of supply surplus remains unchanged, with new production capacity expected in the third quarter [3].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports a rapid increase in global oil inventories in recent months, primarily concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, which has helped maintain stable oil prices [1] - As of the end of June, global inventories increased by approximately 235 million barrels, with only 10% of this increase occurring in the OECD region, which is crucial for price formation [1] - Despite expectations of oversupply in the coming quarters, the current futures price structure indicates market supply tightness, with near-term prices higher than long-term prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley warns that once the summer demand peak ends, oversupply may re-emerge, but only a "small" surplus is expected to reflect in OECD inventories [1] - The firm anticipates that OECD inventories will increase by no more than 165 million barrels over the next 12 months, returning to levels seen in 2017 when Brent crude prices fluctuated around $65 per barrel [1] - The firm forecasts Brent crude prices to remain at $65 per barrel in Q4 and at $60 per barrel for all four quarters of 2026 [2] Group 3 - In the recent inventory increase, non-OECD countries added approximately 100 million barrels, with China alone accounting for 48 million barrels [2] - The amount of oil in floating storage has also increased, adding 106 million barrels [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the supply surplus situation remains, and the short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [1][2]. - For the stainless steel market, the market confidence is still insufficient. The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is also to sell hedging on rallies. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,440 yuan/ton and closed at 119,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.15% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 94,219 lots, and the open interest was 62,803 lots. The contract showed a weak shock, and the trading volume and open interest increased compared with the previous trading day. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and there was still a need for short - term correction. The 117,000 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel and other mainstream brands decreased. The trading sentiment of refined nickel improved, but the supply surplus pattern remained unchanged. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,555 (259.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 206,580 (0) tons [1]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The trading strategy is mainly range trading for single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 15, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 97,583 lots, and the open interest was 93,471 lots. The contract rose first and then fell, and the trading volume and open interest increased due to the contract switch. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and there was pressure above the 40 - day moving average. The 12,400 yuan/ton level was estimated to be a strong support in the medium - and long - term [2]. - In the spot market, most quotes in the Foshan market remained the same as the previous trading day, and the trading volume did not improve significantly, with insufficient market confidence. The nickel - iron market quotes decreased, and it was expected that the nickel - iron price would be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,800 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,775 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 170 - 370 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term operation is recommended to be postponed. The medium - and long - term strategy is to sell hedging on rallies. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].