Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil prices. Non - OPEC+ supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable. Short - term fluctuations may be dominated by the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains [4]. - For PX & PTA, PX supply is expected to increase. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost side in the short term [4]. - For MEG, affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. However, the medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to fluctuate widely. Styrene is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene in the long - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - In 2026, non - OPEC+ crude oil supply will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day, with certain increments from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada. The return of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production will be a key variable for the market direction. Trump said Venezuela will supply 50 million barrels of oil to the US [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic and overseas PX plants are operating stably. PX load can be effectively maintained. PXN has risen to a seasonal high, and supply is expected to increase. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.12%, up 0.72% from last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.18%, up 0.41% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is at a high level. New PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and there are many maintenance plans in the second quarter [4][8]. - PTA: This week, domestic PTA plants have basically no changes. PTA is still de - stocking, but terminal demand is weakening. The PTA spot market price this week is 5,067 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 77.41%, up 3.21% from last week. The in - factory inventory days are 3.60 days, down 0.05 days from last week. The processing fee is 339 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - Affected by the coal sector, the ethylene glycol盘面 rebounded. The domestic ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 63.06%, down 0.1% from last week. The coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 62.09%, up 1.61% from last week. The production profit is - 867 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton month - on - month. The arrival of goods has risen to over 170,000 tons again, and the port inventory in the East China region is 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous period. The medium - term supply surplus situation is difficult to change [5][18]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has further accumulated to 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from last week. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, expected to fluctuate widely. The pure benzene开工 rate is 74.38%, down 0.8% from last week [5][27][28]. - Styrene: The开工 rate has rebounded slightly from the bottom, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The downstream 3S trends are differentiated. The long - term 3S capacity is expanding while the new styrene capacity is limited, and it is expected to be slightly stronger than pure benzene. The styrene开工 rate is 70.92%, up 0.69% from last week, and the port inventory is 132,300 tons, down 6,500 tons from last week [5][27][28]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry is 87.16%, up 0.22% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fiber and filament have increased slightly. The开工 rate of sample enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is 57.89%, down 1.66% from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days are 8.68 days, down 0.72 days from last week. The average terminal weaving finished product inventory level is 27.57 days, an increase of 0.60 days from last week [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that oil prices have experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic data, with expectations for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 projected between $55-65 and $52-62 per barrel, respectively [1][4] - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month [1][2] - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a complete withdrawal of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts significant oil supply surplus in 2026, with oil demand expected to grow by 86-138 million barrels per day [3] - China's petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures and controlling new refining capacity [4] - The geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and U.S. tariffs, is expected to impact the oil market significantly [4]

总体来看，目前氧化铝仍受过剩逻辑主导，受非农前夜市场不确定性影响资金离场，现货价格继续承 压。中期氧化铝预计弱势难改，短期市场情绪虽有积极迹象，但操作上仍推荐逢高沽空。 今日上期所氧化铝期货震荡走软，主力2605合约日间交易收跌1.35%，国内氧化铝现货价格持稳。 宏观方面，美国经济数据好坏参半，刺激空头势力再度活跃，市场资金加速流出。非农数据公布前夕， 多空双方或激烈博弈。当前，美国股市表现分化，美元指数震荡上行，市场避险情绪升温，进而带动有 色板块整体走低。 基本面方面，国内氧化铝运行产能维持高位，长期减产迹象未现，供应过剩格局持续，价格上方承压。 按几内亚一季度矿石长单价格下调5美元估算，晋豫地区平均现金成本将降至2650元/吨左右。消费端， 内蒙古电解铝企业虽已投产，但处于前期，需求增量有限。现货市场，持货商出货意愿较强，下游接货 商按需采购，交投氛围一般，全天交易平淡。 长江有色网1月9日讯，今日氧化铝弱势震荡，主力月2605合约偏弱运行；截止当日15：00收盘，氧化铝 主力月2605合约报2843元，收跌39元，跌幅1.35%；19个合约累计成交1140558手，比前一交易日减少 399614手， ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a surprising rebound, ending a two-day decline with a peak increase of over 5%, defying the general trend of significant declines in commodities [5][6][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - WTI crude oil futures closed at $57.76 per barrel, up $1.77 or 3.16% [9][25]. - Brent crude oil futures rose by $2.03, or 3.39%, closing at $61.99 per barrel [9][25]. - INE crude oil futures increased by 1.58%, closing at 424.6 yuan [9][25]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The rebound in oil prices is attributed to a correction of overly pessimistic sentiments following recent geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and Iran [6][8][24]. - The U.S. government announced plans to indefinitely control Venezuelan oil sales, which has created uncertainty in the market [13][29]. - Venezuela's oil production has been declining due to U.S. sanctions, with a reported drop of approximately 14%, bringing production down to 830,000 barrels per day [10][26]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil inventories are reportedly increasing, indicating that supply pressures remain a significant driver of oil prices [8][24]. - The OPEC production survey showed that despite Venezuela's production decline, overall OPEC output remained stable, with Iraq increasing its production by 80,000 barrels per day [10][26]. - Rystad Energy estimates that maintaining Venezuelan oil production at 1.1 million barrels per day will require approximately $53 billion in investments over the next 15 years [11][27]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current rebound in oil prices may not be sustainable due to ongoing supply surplus pressures and complex market dynamics [8][24]. - The first quarter of the year is suggested to focus on short-selling strategies for oil prices, emphasizing risk management [8][24].

格隆汇1月8日｜原油期货价格已回升至上周收盘水平，市场正从委内瑞拉相关的抛售潮中反弹。 Ritterbusch and Associates在报告中指出，美湾地区要获得大量委内瑞拉原油可能尚需时日，特别是如果 除雪佛龙以外的其他美国公司在缺乏安全及财务保障，以及油价不足以支撑投资的情况下，对重大投资 承诺望而却步。该机构认为，这种市场介入"在供应紧张的全球石油市场中更有意义，而非存在于当前 的供应过剩环境"。 ...

本周国内汽柴油批发价格延续跌势，整体购销氛围平平。具体来看，周内国际原油震荡下行，新一轮变 化率负向区间波动，消息面维持利空发展。主营炼厂及地炼开工率均维持在高位，国内资源供应充裕。 受季节影响，汽油需求进入淡季。另外，随着气温的下降，基建、工矿活跃度降低，且部分工程单位陆 续收尾，柴油整体需求转弱。且节后归来，进入新一轮的销售周期，主营销售公司新年争取"开门红"行 情，报价纷纷回落，实际成交优惠政策宽松。中下游囤货意愿低迷，多持消库观望态度，市场购销氛围 表现平平。 进入下周，除非有新的地缘冲突升级，否则原油市场依旧被困扰在供应过剩的预期当中。市场对原油后 市预期普遍不佳，下周国际原油价格或低位徘徊，变化率或负向区间发展，零售价呈下调预期，消息面 难寻支撑。供应方面，山东地炼及主营炼厂开工率均存在小幅回升空间，国内成品油资源供应预计进一 步增加。需求方面，受多地低温天气影响，户外用油单位开工负荷下降，柴油需求表现疲软；汽油需求 虽有一定刚性支撑，但由于市场参与者普遍看淡后市，入市采购情绪谨慎，汽油需求难以显著改善。综 合来看，成品油市场偏弱的基本面格局短期难以改变，预计下周汽柴油价格整体将延续震荡下行趋势。 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices are declining due to the U.S. seizing two sanctioned oil tankers and indicating the sale of Venezuelan oil, leading to expectations of increased Venezuelan crude sales [2][10] - WTI crude oil fell by 2%, settling at just below $56 per barrel, with market expectations that increased Venezuelan oil sales will exert downward pressure on an already oversupplied market [2][10] - President Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., with the proceeds benefiting both countries [2][10] - The U.S. Department of Energy is selectively easing sanctions on Venezuela, although specific details were not provided [2][10] - Analysts suggest that if prices continue to fall and breach the critical $55 psychological level, futures could accelerate down to $50 [11] Base Metals - Copper prices have retreated from record highs, along with other industrial metals, as traders took profits after rapid price increases [4][14] - At the London Metal Exchange, copper, nickel, and zinc futures all fell over 2%, reducing the sharp gains seen in recent weeks [5][15] - Despite a generally bullish long-term outlook for copper and other metals, the rapid price increase has raised concerns about a potential sharp market decline as traders lock in profits [5][15] - LME copper closed down 2.56% at $12,899.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.29% at $3,088.5 per ton, LME nickel down 3.4% at $17,895.0 per ton, and LME zinc down 2.57% at $3,167.5 per ton [16] Precious Metals - Silver and platinum have seen significant declines, continuing a trend of extreme volatility, as traders weigh the impacts of index rebalancing, supply constraints, and potential U.S. tariffs [6][14] - Platinum prices dropped as much as 7.7%, while silver fell by up to 6%, although both metals have recorded gains for the month so far [6][14] - The annual commodity index rebalancing is pressuring prices as passive tracking funds need to sell previously high-performing metals to match new weights [6][14] - Gold and palladium also fell alongside other precious metals, with analysts predicting large-scale sell-offs due to significant rebalancing fund flows [6][14] - As of the latest data, silver was down 3.78% at $78.202 per ounce, and gold was down 0.92% at $4,453.31 per ounce [17][18]

低油价红利或将在2026年初戛然而止，新一轮计价周期伊始，国际油价便显露反弹端倪，监测数据显示原油变化率已逼近50元/吨的调价红线，国际能源署 （IEA）预警2026年一二季度全球原油日均供应过剩将达500万桶左右，供需基本面仍利空油价，短期地缘摩擦与资本炒作已为1月6日的首次调整埋下"上涨 伏笔"。 二、供需基本面定乾坤 2026年1月6日 基础金价988.9元/克，回收价974元/克偏弱，品牌价仍高达1376–1378元/克，国际金价4402.8美元/盎司走低，使得投资端更关注回收与现货的贴水变化，对 消费者而言，品牌价抗跌更多来自工费与渠道成本，非金价强势。 一、年末"三连降"落幕 12月22日，国内汽柴油每吨下调超165元，92号汽油单升下跌0.13元，正式跌入"6元时代"，以50升油箱计算，年末加满一箱油较月初节省约6.5元，全年累计 降幅近900元/吨，车主燃油成本显著降低。 三、全国92号汽油价格 全国各省市92号汽油价格延续"北低南高"态势，区域价差主要受物流成本与地方税费影响： 东北地区价格相对亲民，辽宁6.79元/升，吉林6.67元/升；华北主流价格在6.66-6.71元/升之间，北京报6 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - The international oil price is expected to continue the low trend of 2025 into 2026, with a significant oversupply projected at 3.84 million barrels per day according to the IEA [1] - Analysts believe that the severe oversupply in the oil market will not last long, with a gradual return to balance expected in the second half of 2026 to 2027 [2] - High oil prices may require significant supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts to rebalance the market, as the supply dynamics will dominate oil and gas price trends [2] Group 2: Refining Industry - Despite low oil prices, the refining sector is expected to maintain high operating rates in Europe and North America, with strong crack spreads, particularly for diesel [3] - The adjustment in global oil trade flows is anticipated to enhance diesel profits in Asia and the Middle East [3] Group 3: U.S. Shale Oil and M&A Trends - U.S. shale oil production is expected to remain resilient even with oil prices around $60 per barrel, as companies aim to maintain production levels [3] - The focus of M&A activity in the U.S. oil and gas sector is shifting towards natural gas, driven by rising LNG exports and increased electricity demand from AI developments [3] Group 4: Challenges for Oil Companies - Major oil companies and national oil companies are facing more severe strategic balance challenges in 2026 compared to 2025 due to low oil prices and oversupply [4] - Companies are preparing for a low oil price environment by reallocating capital back to upstream oil and gas sectors and increasing exploration efforts [4] - There is an expectation that companies will reduce stock buybacks and implement deeper structural cost cuts in response to the pressures of low oil prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].