以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 现货端 文 | 张源 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览版 行情分析 跌势根本：自身的供应明显过剩； 反弹动因：节后预期有所改善，可视为急速下跌后的缓和期，部分空头阶段性获利离场。 焦煤现货未见明显回暖：山西焦煤招标仍以下跌或流拍为主、蒙5原煤成交价717元/吨； 原料端库存加速积累：下游钢厂、焦企主动压低库存导致焦煤库存向上游转移，达近年高 位； 下游库存水平较低：易触发集中补库，可能带动现货止跌企稳。 利润情况 节后两日焦炭及焦煤出现了一波反弹行情，截至今日（6月4日）收盘，焦煤涨超7%，市场的 情绪有所好转。以焦煤为例，焦煤自今年3月份以来持续下跌，最主要的因素还是自身的供应 明显过剩。特别是4月下旬以来，由于需求出现下行预期，但焦煤自身供应没有明显的减量出 现，且进口量保持高位，供需矛盾进一步激化，一个月内跌幅超过180点，同期现货蒙煤折仓 单价格也下跌了140元/吨左右。 01 情绪面 盘面情绪反馈相对超前，昨日（6月3日）焦煤主力合约最低达到709点左右，盘面贴水现货超 过80 ...

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌上海报道 为了夺回市场份额，惩罚超额生产的成员国，欧佩克+同意7月份增产41.1万桶/日，连续三个月大幅增 产。 在欧佩克+会议前，哈萨克斯坦特地表示不会削减产量，在欧佩克+内部引发了激烈讨论，一度引发市 场对更大幅度增产的担忧。哈萨克斯坦长期以来一直超出其配额进行生产，日产量持续超标数十万桶， 这一行为激怒了其他成员国。 一方面，欧佩克+增产的举动反映了沙特希望惩罚哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等生产过剩的成员国；另一方 面，增产也是为了收复被美国页岩油生产商和其他竞争对手抢走的市场份额。 事实上，欧佩克在全球石油市场的主导地位已经被大幅削弱，产量份额从十年前的约40%降至今年的不 到25%，而美国份额则从14%上升至约20%。 欧佩克+增产并不意外，但奇怪的是，国际油价却不跌反涨。6月2日，布伦特原油期货收高2.95%。美 国原油上涨2.85%，报62.52美元/桶，盘中一度暴涨逾5%。 尽管油价意外暴涨，但在供应过剩阴霾下，市场仍忧心忡忡：油价大涨的势头会否"昙花一现"？"漫长 的增产期"？ 欧佩克+会议上，包括俄罗斯在内的部分成员国对此次增产表示反对，一些国家甚至游说暂停7月份的 增产计划 ...

锌产业周报 2025/06/3 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任 ...

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ countries have decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, continuing a trend of significant production increases that have led to a decline in international oil prices to a four-year low [1][4]. Group 1: Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to a third consecutive month of production increases, with a total increase of 411,000 barrels per day [4]. - The decision reflects a stable global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals, evidenced by low oil inventories [4]. - The production adjustments will be monitored in future meetings, with a commitment to fully compensate for any overproduction starting from January 2024 [5]. Group 2: Market Impact - The increase in production has contributed to a downward trend in international oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $61 per barrel and Brent crude around $62 [8]. - Analysts express concerns about an oversupply in the market, predicting that the global oil market will remain in a state of excess supply through 2025 [4][12]. - Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, forecast a continued decline in oil prices through 2025-2026 due to increased production and trade tensions affecting demand [12]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - The shift in OPEC+ strategy marks a departure from years of coordinated production cuts aimed at supporting oil prices [4][6]. - Saudi Arabia and Russia are leading the charge to reclaim market share lost to competitors, including U.S. shale producers [7]. - Future meetings are scheduled to reassess production levels, indicating ongoing adjustments based on market conditions [7].

当市场正为OPEC+即将释放的新一轮供应冲击做准备时，对冲基金正以八个月来最激进的姿态押注原油暴跌。 5月31日据媒体报道，截至5月27日当周，资管公司将布伦特原油的净空头头寸猛增16,922手至130,019手，创下自去年10月以来的最高水平。与此 同时，美国CFTC的数据显示，WTI原油的纯空头头寸也攀升至三周高点。 更令人意外的是，即便正值夏季驾驶旺季，汽油的纯空头头寸同样升至四周高点。分析认为，这一反常现象表明，投资者对整个石油产业链都持 悲观态度。 推动这轮做空潮的核心催化剂是OPEC+即将召开的关键会议。华尔街见闻此前报道，以沙特阿拉伯为首的OPEC+核心小组定于周六举行会议，决 定7月份的产量水平。 据报道，初步谈判已释放出第三次连续增产的信号，这让市场对供应过剩的担忧急剧升温。此外，美国和伊朗的核协议也给原油市场添加变数。 截至周五，WTI原油价格在60-64美元区间震荡了近两周。 分析指出，这种多重利空因素的叠加效应，是促使对冲基金管理人大举建立空头头寸的根本原因。他们显然认为，当前的油价水平无法承受即将 到来的供应冲击。 对于石油投资者而言，这场做空风暴可能只是一个开始。在OPEC+最终决 ...

Core Viewpoint - SQM is addressing the global lithium supply surplus issue as demand falls short of expectations while new supplies come online, leading to a decline in lithium prices from their peak at the end of 2022 [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - SQM's CEO, Ricardo Ramos, stated that the company will continue efforts to increase total production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to 240,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively [1] - The company plans to continue processing lithium sulfate in China [1] Group 2: Market Context - The current market situation reflects a contrast between SQM's approach of increasing production and the strategies of some high-cost producers who are cutting back on output and spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing decline in lithium prices, SQM, one of the largest lithium producers globally, has achieved record lithium sales in the first quarter due to low-cost expansion and strong demand from the electric vehicle market, particularly in China, as well as new demand from energy storage systems [1] Group 1 - SQM reported a 27% year-over-year increase in lithium sales for the three months ending in March [1] - The growth in lithium sales is attributed to the robust expansion of the electric vehicle market and emerging needs from energy storage systems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market experienced significant volatility in May, driven by Guinea's mining policy changes and shifts in supply-demand expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Guinea's Mining Policy Impact - The Guinean government has revoked numerous mining licenses, affecting various sectors including bauxite, gold, diamonds, graphite, and iron ore [2]. - Despite the current uncertainty, there are expectations that companies may be able to bid for new mining licenses, alleviating some market concerns [2]. - Market sentiment has improved as it is believed that long-term shutdowns of mining operations are not feasible for economic reasons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's bauxite imports increased by 34.3% year-on-year from January to April, with a notable 59.62% increase in April alone, reaching a historical high [3]. - As of the end of April, China's bauxite inventory stood at 41.15 million tons, indicating a relatively ample supply [3]. - Domestic demand for aluminum oxide remains stable, although export demand has weakened [3]. Group 3: Production and Pricing Trends - The operating rate of aluminum oxide production facilities has been high due to favorable profit margins, providing strong support for demand [4]. - In April, China's aluminum oxide production was 7.323 million tons, showing a 2% month-on-month decline but a 6.7% year-on-year increase [4]. - The average cost of aluminum oxide production decreased to 2,850 yuan/ton in May, leading to a recovery in industry profits, with an average profit of 106 yuan/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall price of bauxite has rebounded due to the mining rights revocation in Guinea, but high domestic inventories may limit the impact on near-term supply [5]. - Approximately 5.2 million tons of new production capacity with significant cost advantages are expected to be released in the second quarter [5]. - The aluminum oxide market may experience a range-bound trading pattern, with resistance at 3,500 yuan/ton and support around 2,800 yuan/ton [5].

国际铜研究组织（ICSG）：2025年3月世界精炼铜市场供应过剩1.7万吨。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent and WTI crude oil prices will remain low and weak in 2025-2026 compared to current levels [1] - The firm has consistently taken a bearish stance on oil prices, citing an oversupply in the market and a potential peak in U.S. shale oil production occurring earlier and at lower levels than previously expected [1][2] - Other major Wall Street banks, including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, share similar forecasts of significant oversupply in the oil market leading to declining prices through 2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts downward, expecting Brent crude to average $60 per barrel in 2025 and $55 in 2026, while WTI is expected to average $56 and $51 respectively [2] - In a scenario of a typical U.S. economic recession and moderate OPEC production increases, Brent prices could drop to $58 by December 2025 and $50 by December 2026 [2] - If global GDP slows significantly and OPEC maintains moderate production increases, Brent prices could fall to $54 and $45 by the same dates [2] Group 3 - Analysis of President Trump's social media activity indicates a preference for oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel, which may influence market sentiment [3] - Concerns over potential increases in OPEC+ supply have contributed to a decline in Brent crude prices, which recently fell to around $64.5 per barrel [3] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have raised concerns about global energy demand, further impacting oil prices [5] Group 4 - The international oil market is currently in a sensitive phase, with mixed factors affecting supply and demand [5] - Potential cautious signals from OPEC+ regarding production increases could provide temporary support for oil prices [5] - Traders are awaiting further policy developments from the Trump administration and OPEC+ capacity signals to assess the supply-demand balance for the second half of the year [5]