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资讯早间报-20260129

Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 02:22

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Views - The report presents a wide - ranging overview of overnight market trends across various asset classes including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, along with important macro, industry - specific, and geopolitical news that could potentially impact these markets [5][34][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 6.46% at $5411.00/oz and COMEX silver up 10.06% at $116.62/oz due to Fed's signals and market speculation on the chairperson [5] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 1.78% at $63.5/barrel and Brent up 1.56% at $67.63/barrel, driven by supply - related concerns [5] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 3.52%, LME aluminum up 1.59%, LME nickel up 1.12% [5] - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with fuel oil, asphalt etc. up over 1%, while ethylene glycol, corn etc. slightly down [7] Important Information Macro - information - By the end of 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, up 16.1% year - on - year [9] - Yichun lifted the heavy pollution weather yellow alert on January 28, 2026 [10] - As of December 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 992 million lots and an operating income of 4.918 billion yuan in December [10] - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke through 7 at the end of 2025, and it is expected to remain stable in 2026 [10] - Trump warned Iran, and the US may face another partial government shutdown [10][11] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [13] - The US Treasury Secretary expressed views on Fed's policy and the exchange - rate policy [13] - The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - The 2026 potash market is expected to see increased supply and stable prices [16] - As of January 28, 2026, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4721 million tons, up 14,600 tons [16] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory increased by 2.012 million barrels to 23.369 million barrels in the week ending January 26, 2026 [18] - US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 515,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending January 23 [18] Metal Futures - Guinea's bauxite exports in 2025 increased 25% year - on - year to 182.8 million tons [20] - Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading to manage the Thai baht exchange rate [20] - CME adjusted margin parameters for some silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts [20] - China's polysilicon production is expected to decline significantly in January and February [20] - Russian Norilsk Nickel's 2025 and 2026 production forecasts for nickel and palladium were released [21] - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin and price - limit ratios for precious and base metal futures contracts [23][24] - A large smelting enterprise in Henan reduced production by 30% due to fog warnings [25] - Two zinc mines in Southwest China plan to reduce production in February [25] Black - series Futures - Two iron ore units of Vale were suspended, with an annual output of about 8 million tons [28] - As of January 28, national building materials production decreased, while inventories increased [28] - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise coke prices on January 30 [29] Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's drought may reduce 2025/26 crop yields [31] - Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026 decreased 14.81% compared to the same period last month [31] - CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased 12.08% in the week ending January 23 [31] Financial Market Financial - A - shares fluctuated, with resource stocks rising and the photovoltaic industry chain adjusting [34] - The Hang Seng Index rose to a new high since August 2021 [34] - In 2025, Chinese public security cracked down on major securities crimes [35] - By the end of December 2025, China's public funds reached a new high of 37.7 trillion yuan [35] - The first CSI A500ETF was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35] Industry - The withdrawal of "zombie" Chinese patent medicine approvals will not impact the market [37] - China's installed power generation capacity increased by 16.1% by the end of 2025 [37] - Some real - estate enterprises are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators [37] - China approved two medical device industry standards [37] - Three ministries issued 18 policies to support the elderly - care service industry [37] - A football "match - fixing" news conference will be held [38] - A Shenzhen gold platform faced a payment crisis [38] - The demand for solid - state batteries in humanoid robots is expected to exceed 74GWh by 2035 [40] Overseas - Trump threatened Iran, and Iran is on high alert [41] - India reported two Nipah virus cases with low spread risk [41] - Germany lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1% [41] - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the outlook is as expected [42] - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark rate at 2.25% [42] - South Korea's former first - lady was sentenced to 1 year and 8 months [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.02%, the S&P 500 down 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.17% [44] - European stocks fell due to Trump's threat to Iran [44] - Most Asian - Pacific stocks rose, except for the Indonesian index which tumbled [45] - SpaceX may launch an IPO in mid - June with a target valuation of $1.5 trillion [45] - Microsoft, Meta, and other companies reported strong earnings [45][46] Commodities - Exchanges tightened risk - control measures for futures contracts [49] - International precious metals and crude oil prices rose, while base metals mostly increased [49][50][51] Bonds - Chinese treasury bond futures rose on Wednesday, and the Ministry of Finance completed a treasury cash management deposit auction [52][53] - The National Development Bank issued RMB 5.5 billion of bonds in Macau [54] - Japan's 40 - year treasury bond auction had a high bid - to - cover ratio [54] - US treasury bond yields showed mixed performance [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate rose, and China signed a RMB clearing agreement with Sri Lanka [56] - The yen depreciated against the dollar, and Thailand's central bank restricted gold trading [56] - The US dollar index rose 0.63% [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank interest - rate decisions, news conferences, and corporate earnings announcements scheduled for the day [59]