下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 比特币跌破9万美元， 持续一个月的下跌态势 已抹去该加密货币2025年的所有涨幅。 此次逆转行情出现之际，正值经济逆风加剧，包括市场对利率政策再度产生担忧，以及投机市场估值过高。期权交易员押注比特币将进一步 下跌，近期对8.5万美元和8万美元行权价的看跌期权保护需求占据主导。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, driven by Federal Reserve policy disagreements and economic data performance [1][2] - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward movement since hitting a low of 98.865 on November 3, forming a potential "W-bottom" pattern [2] - The market is currently focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to be a key catalyst for the dollar index's direction [1] Group 2 - As of November 18, the dollar index is trading within a narrow range of 99.20-99.60, with a recent high of 99.477 and a low of 99.245, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout [2] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 57.1%, while the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased to 42.9%, providing support for the dollar index [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish structure with the RSI reading at 52 and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover, suggesting a moderate release of bullish momentum [2]

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the political cycle in 2026 will dominate market trends, with expectations of a strong rebound in Q1, followed by challenges after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May [1] - The consensus among multi-strategy hedge fund managers is that global growth expectations will be raised, with the U.S. nominal GDP growth potentially reaching 5% or higher due to fiscal stimulus boosting demand [1] - Demand-driven growth is expected to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policy, leading to a potential sell-off pressure of 40-50 basis points on short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI is experiencing an immediate surge, while supply-side improvements from AI investments are projected to take years, typically around 10 years [2] - The overall supply capacity of the economy has actually declined in the short term due to labor market and immigration policy constraints [2] - Inflation expectations are no longer stable, and if inflation rises again early next year, it may exhibit self-reinforcing and expectation-driven characteristics [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 6% by early 2025 are prevalent, but a drop back to 4% has provided significant support for the market this year [3] - Investors are advised to focus on profit opportunities in 2026 rather than worrying about a potential disaster in 2027, as this year has already shown strong performance [3] Group 4 - The market consensus indicates a clear trading path: a prosperous Q1 followed by a test when the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office on May 15 [4] - The midterm elections on November 3 are seen as a critical juncture, with Trump likely to employ all possible means to secure a win, shaping investor positioning [4] - There is a notable shift in risk assessment, with risk assets expected to perform well for a period, but adjustments in interest rate expectations may occur as consumer conditions improve [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of the current AUD/USD exchange rate is on the divergent policy paths of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] - The RBA decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% in November, influenced by a surprising rebound in Q3 inflation, which rose to 3.2% [1] - Market expectations have shifted, with predictions suggesting that the next rate hike from the RBA may not occur until early 2027, indicating an end to the rate-cutting cycle, which supports the Australian dollar [1] Group 2 - The Fed is currently facing a "data vacuum" following a government shutdown, with recent hawkish signals from Powell reducing market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - The USD index is operating within a short-term upward channel of 98-102, which, combined with narrowing AUD/USD interest rate differentials and the safe-haven nature of the USD, exerts strong pressure on the Australian dollar's rebound potential [1] Group 3 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in a weak consolidation phase, with a key range of 0.6500-0.6550, where 0.6500 serves as support and 0.6550 as resistance [2] - The moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and while the MACD shows narrowing green bars below the zero line, it has not yet crossed over, indicating limited upward momentum [2] - Future movements will depend on U.S. data and Australian inflation; weak U.S. data could help the AUD reach 0.6550, while strong data may push it below 0.6500 to 0.6460 [2]

研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-11-11 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 沪铜周报 美联储放鹰，铜短期涨势受阻 观点摘要 【核心观点】 美国政府结束关门停摆，美联储放鹰，国内宏观数据不佳，基本面多空交织， 铜冲高回落，短期承压8万8关口，建议多单部分逢高止盈，长期看好铜 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率稳定，以继续对通胀施压，将物价增速拉回2%的目标。 哈马克表示，尽管劳动力市场存在一定隐忧，但高企的通胀依然顽固，尤其对低收入和中等收入家庭造成 持续冲击。 哈马克认为，当前利率水平"几乎算不上限制性"，为了保持政策的限制性，需要让利率维持在当前水平。 通胀压力将持续到今年年底甚至延续至明年初。 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利表示，现在判断美联储是否应在12月会议上降息还为时过早，目前政策走向看起 来"相对中性"。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆呼吁在继续降息方面保持谨慎。 【策略展望】 策略：新入场投机背靠85000逢低试多，最大止损83000，目标90000，盈亏比2.5 已有的短期多单可移动止盈，逢高落袋，中长期多单保持定力和耐心 产业卖出套 ...

Group 1: Trade Policies and Agreements - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on November 14, exempting certain agricultural products from the "reciprocal tariffs" list, effective from November 13 [1] - The U.S. announced the removal of tariffs on certain food imports from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, including coffee and bananas, in response to public concerns over rising prices [1] - The U.S. and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement, reducing Swiss goods tariffs from 39% to 15%, with Switzerland committing to invest $200 billion in the U.S. [1] - The U.S. and South Korea reached a comprehensive agreement on tariffs and defense, with South Korea committing to invest $350 billion in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - Kansas City Fed President Schmidt stated that further rate cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than boost employment, indicating that current rates are "just right" for the economy [2] - The European Council announced the cancellation of tax exemptions for imported goods valued under €150, requiring all incoming goods to pay corresponding tariffs [2] - The U.S. Commerce Department is set to release the revised Q3 GDP and October personal income and PCE data on November 26 [2] - Japan's Finance Minister revealed a new economic stimulus package exceeding ¥17 trillion (approximately $110 billion) to boost the sluggish economy [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.65% to 47,147.48 points, while the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05% to 6,734.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.13% to 22,900.59 points [3] - COMEX gold futures dropped by 2.62% to $4,084.4 per ounce, and silver futures fell by 5.21% to $50.4 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures increased by 2.15% to $59.95 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.97% to $64.25 per barrel [4]

今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与 12 月降息前景的深度解析。 关键词：美联储、内部分歧、12 月降息、滞胀、鹰鸽之争、利率政策、经济数据 简介：聚焦美联储内部鹰鸽两派围绕降息的激烈博弈，解析滞胀背景下通胀与劳动力市场的核心矛盾， 探讨数据真空与政策分歧对利率路径的影响，助您把握降息预期波动中的市场机遇与风险。 美国降息路径因美联储内部出现的新分歧而变得不明朗，这种分歧在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）近八年的任期内几乎没有先例。 美联储官员对于持续通胀与劳动力市场疲软中哪一项构成更大威胁存在分歧。即使官方经济数据恢复发 布，可能也无法弥合这些分歧。 这一裂痕使不到两个月前看起来可行的降息计划变得复杂，不过投资者们仍认为，美联储在下次政策会 议上降息的可能性仍然大于不降息的可能性。 9月份，当政策制定者同意降息0.25个百分点时，19名美联储官员中有10人（占微弱多数）初步预计在 10月和12月会继续降息。若实现连续三次会议降息，将与鲍威尔去年和2019年所做的下调利率的节奏如 出一辙。 但一部分鹰派官员对进一步降息的必要性提出质疑。在美联储官员们于10月底再次降息 ...

智通财经APP注意到，两位欧洲央行政策制定者周二表示，欧元区通胀风险趋于平衡，经济增长比预期 更为强劲，这进一步强化了市场对近期不会再降息的预期。 武伊契奇认为，目前关税对欧洲经济的损害没有此前担心的那么严重，但关税生效前进口前置效应的后 续影响仍在持续显现。 鉴于储蓄率处于历史高位，家庭预计将支撑增长，但武伊契奇承认，欧洲央行难以理解为何消费持续疲 软。 关于中国，他表示欧洲正面临日益激烈的竞争，尤其是在汽车和机械生产等国内企业一直实力雄厚的领 域，这是一个难以解决的结构性问题。 市场认为今年降息的可能性接近零，但仍预计到2026年年中，将2%的存款利率进行最后一次下调的可 能性约为40%。 武伊契奇在伦敦表示："就风险平衡而言，我们处于良好状态。目前，围绕通胀预测的风险是平衡的， 而且……经济增长已被证明比我们年初时想象的更具韧性。" 在关键风险中，武伊契奇强调了中国出口、美国关税以及家庭消费的不可预测性。 欧洲央行自6月以来一直维持利率不变，并表示政策处于"良好状态"，尽管一些利率制定者仍担心通胀 可能回落过度，迫使他们在2026年的某个时候重新放松政策。 然而，欧洲央行执行委员会成员弗兰克.埃尔德森和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's import growth rate declined and exports turned negative year-on-year, indicating that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, domestic demand remains weak, and external demand is under increasing downward pressure. The export will face downward pressure in the future. The stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds and the risk of a new decline should be watched out for. Gold may be under short - term pressure and has a risk of deep adjustment in the medium - long term [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In October 2025, China's imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, the first negative growth since March, reflecting weakening domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on external demand [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished product inventories rebounded. However, after removing the impact of the low base effect in the previous year, corporate profitability remained weak, and enterprises were still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly to 24725.92 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - Many Fed officials made hawkish remarks, believing that the US economy is still robust, the inflation risk has not been eliminated, and caution is needed regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has returned above the 4% mark [28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have further dampened the market's expectation of another interest rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [40]. - Medium - long term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to factors such as the cooling of the expectation of another Fed interest rate cut in December [40].

金融大佬突发噩耗，降息延引市场动荡，黄金会成为年底新风口吗？ 先说重点，11月市场两件大事把人搅得坐不住，一是泉果基金创始人王国斌在11月3日病逝，震动圈内外，二是美联储降息预期被推迟，加上美 国政府停摆与香港经济回暖，市场在避险和风险偏好之间拉扯，让人摸不着头脑，接下来我把时间线和来龙去脉按白话讲清楚，让你知道到底 发生了什么，会往哪儿走。 11月3日，泉果基金官网突然变成黑白色调，接着公司公告写着总经理因病离任，任职截止日就是当天，这消息像晴天霹雳在基金圈炸开，年 仅57岁的王国斌告别了他打拼多年的舞台， 王国斌出身北大，干了27年证券行业，曾在万国证券、中金混过日子，2010年带着一股倔劲儿把东方红资产管理拉出来做成事儿，那会儿他敢 在股市高热时暂停权益类产品新发，颗粒归仓的决定后来被不少人当成避灾保命的选择， 2022年他又创了泉果基金，这是当年唯一过会的"个人系"公募，三年多把规模做到237亿，产品连续多年正收益，圈里人对他既敬又怕，觉得这 人靠谱又狠决， 关于他怎么去世，官方只写"病逝"，后续讣告说是因病医治无效，没有具体病种，网络上有各种猜测，最后一次公开露面被人拍到憔悴、消 瘦、需助理搀扶离场 ...