（原标题："稳增长"政策工具箱会否在四季度开启？） 2025年第三季度，全球主要股指涨跌幅榜单呈现出鲜明的区域特征：亚洲市场全面领跑，而中国A股则包揽涨幅榜前三。创业板指以50.4%的季度 涨幅居全球首位，科创50指数、深证成指分别上涨49.02%和29.25%，位列第二、第三。沪深300指数上涨17.9%，位居第八；上证综指上涨 12.73%，恒生指数上涨11.56%。从地域分布看，涨幅前十四名均为亚洲股指，其中A股占据五席，港股两席，台股、日股、韩股及东南亚市场各 有一席入围。 这一轮市场表现的背后，是流动性环境变化、产业政策驱动与外部金融条件改善共同作用的结果。尽管经济基本面仍显疲弱，8月消费、生产与投 资数据普遍偏冷，市场普遍预期三季度GDP增速约为4.8%，信达期货研报预测，新的稳增长政策有必要出台。 9月29日，国家发改委宣布将推出规模达5000亿元的新型政策性金融工具，全部用于补充重大项目的资本金。信达期货研报认为，该工具的资金来 源可能包括央行再贷款、提高信贷额度或直接赋予发债权限。此举被视为应对当前有效需求不足、推动实物工作量形成的关键举措。发改委明确 表示，将加快资金投放进度，并督促地方推 ...

Group 1: 15th Five-Year Plan Outlook - The primary direction for industrial structure adjustment during the 15th Five-Year Plan is transformation and upgrading, with continued support for technological innovation [1] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with new product development and pricing models emerging in core cities [1] - The home appliance industry will focus on smart, green, and globalized policies, aligning with future manufacturing directions [1] - The construction industry will emphasize overseas expansion and smart construction [1] - The importance of strategic resources will increase, benefiting the prices of non-ferrous metals [1] - Cement and glass industries will face strict capacity controls, focusing on profit recovery rather than just revenue [1] - The chemical industry will see a shift towards replacing outdated capacity, with a positive outlook for chemical exports [1] - The new energy sector is expected to experience favorable supply-demand dynamics, with significant growth in wind and solar power installations [1] - The coal industry will see increased resource scarcity and improved performance as prices rise [1] - The technology sector will benefit from government subsidies for AI capabilities and applications [1] - The cultural industry may see relaxed regulations for overseas expansion, positively impacting supply-side recovery [1] Group 2: AI and Computing Sector Insights - Breakthroughs in computing power and AI applications are expected to lead to a surge in the sector by 2026, with companies achieving over 10% revenue from AI [2] - Despite short-term pressures from subsidy reductions, long-term support for domestic semiconductor replacements remains strong [2] - The internet and cloud computing sectors are experiencing a positive cycle of investment and operational efficiency, with a focus on global entertainment and self-consumption [2] - The telecommunications sector is concentrating on 6G and satellite internet development, with opportunities in the IDC supply chain [2] - E-commerce is currently in a phase of competition for existing market share, but AI products are expected to offset negative impacts from subsidy reductions [2] Group 3: Q3 Earnings Outlook - The reduction in national subsidies is expected to pressure earnings in light industry, consumer electronics, and home appliances [3] - The non-ferrous metals sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in Q3 earnings due to rising domestic metal prices [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is not expected to face severe impacts from tariff policies, contrary to some investor fears [3] - The agricultural sector is projected to see weak growth, particularly in pig prices, through Q1 2026 [3] - The light industry is under pressure from both overseas demand and domestic subsidy reductions, leading to continued earnings challenges [3] - The consumer electronics sector may experience marginal declines in growth following subsidy cuts [3] - The chemical industry is expected to achieve stable growth, with a target of over 5% annual increase in value added by 2025-2026 [3] - The food and beverage sector is facing weak demand, but market expectations are low, which may provide some support [3] - The military industry is projected to see overall revenue and earnings growth, with ongoing attention to the 15th Five-Year Plan's impact [3]

时政新闻眼丨在今年国庆招待会上，习近平重点谈到这两件大事 9月30日，国庆前一天，习近平总书记先后出席两场重要活动。上午，出席烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献 花篮仪式。晚上，出席庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会并发表重要讲话。总书记回望历史、擘画 未来，重点谈到两件大事。《时政新闻眼》为你解读。 0:00 视频：庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会在京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 来源：央视综合 01 国庆前夕 两场活动 今年9月30日，是第12个烈士纪念日。习近平总书记连续第12年在同一天出席向人民英雄敬献花篮仪 式。 △烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献花篮仪式现场。(总台记者李晋拍摄) 在上午的烈士纪念日向人民英雄敬献花篮仪式上，也有在京功勋荣誉表彰奖励获得者代表的身影。 天安门广场上，人民英雄纪念碑前，红旗猎猎。白菊等鲜花组成的18个花环摆放在纪念碑北侧。深沉悠 远的烈士纪念日号角表达对英烈的深情追思。 △白菊等鲜花组成的18个花环。(总台央视记者刘琦拍摄) 18名礼兵稳稳抬起花篮，缓步走向人民英雄纪念碑，将花篮摆放在纪念碑基座上。 总书记等党和国家领导人登上纪念碑基座，在花篮前驻足凝视。总书记迈步上前，仔细整理花篮 ...

天安门广场盛装亮相，长安街华灯璀璨。上个月，这里隆重举行了纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西 斯战争胜利80周年大会，三军列阵，钢铁洪流奔涌。从"九三"的荣光到"十一"的欢歌，纪念的是历史， 映照的是现实。同一片天空下，山河无恙，阖家团聚，这恰是当年先辈们梦想的模样。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。五年来，日新月异的中国，用实绩标注高质量发展的新高度。传统产业 升级，新兴产业壮大，未来产业超前布局。经济发展、科技进步、民生改善的丰硕成果，正实打实地转 化为群众的获得感和幸福感。国的宏大叙事，照亮万家灯火中的寻常日子；家的柴米油盐，共同绘就美 好生活的壮丽画卷。 山河焕新颜，家国共此时。双节承载着家国相依的深厚逻辑，蕴含着九州同梦的美好愿景。站在"十四 五"规划收官与"十五五"新征程开启的历史交汇点，人人争做弄潮儿，共同汇聚起推动国家前行的磅礴 力量。 新华社北京10月1日电 题：双节同辉 携手同心 新华社记者潘晔 时值乙巳金秋，国庆假期恰逢中秋佳节。这是时序赋予的天成巧思，也是独属于中国人的浪漫寄思—— 双节同辉聚合力，携手同心谱华章。 缤纷绚丽的巨型花坛演绎盛世华彩，明艳的"中国红"在街头巷尾飘扬，"生日快乐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical juncture of the "14th Five-Year Plan" (15th Five-Year Plan) in the context of global order restructuring, economic transformation, and China's modernization efforts, emphasizing the need for innovative planning and strategic foresight to navigate these challenges [2][38]. International Environment Trends - Trend 1: The acceleration of the "East Rising, West Declining" power structure, with emerging economies gaining influence, necessitating a focus on self-innovation in key areas like chips and energy in the planning process [5]. - Trend 2: The global economy is characterized by low growth, high debt, high inflation, and a shift towards low-carbon transformation, requiring structural reforms to mitigate debt risks and enhance supply chain resilience [6]. - Trend 3: The advent of digital civilization and industrial revolution marks a critical point, with data becoming a core productivity factor, necessitating the establishment of a dual pillar system of "data sovereignty + technology standards" [7]. - Trend 4: The emphasis on security and development, with a shift in global supply chains towards safety, necessitating a focus on domestic production and regional alternatives in strategic sectors [8]. Domestic Environment Dimensions - Dimension 1: The need for deep reforms to drive domestic demand upgrades, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than speed [9]. - Dimension 2: The "carbon peak" initiative driving green and low-carbon growth, positioning the dual carbon goals as a key economic growth driver [10]. - Dimension 3: Addressing "bottleneck" technologies through a new system that combines state-driven and market-driven innovation [12]. - Dimension 4: The digitization of social governance to reshape public service models, leveraging AI and smart city initiatives [13]. Planning Framework Structure - Focus 1: Emphasizing "four-dimensional coordination" to enhance the strategic depth of planning [16]. - Focus 2: Aligning the 15th Five-Year Plan with the 2035 long-term goals, ensuring coherence in development strategies [18]. - Focus 3: Establishing a baseline of safety and resilience across various sectors, including finance and industry [19]. - Focus 4: Integrating digital and physical spaces in urban planning to enhance resource allocation and governance [20][21]. Evaluation and Assessment - Emphasis on conducting six major assessments, including fiscal capacity, industrial competitiveness, population-service matching, resource carrying capacity, policy effectiveness, and risk resilience [22][23][24][25][26]. Strategic Mapping - Development of four key maps: strategic goal orientation, regional spatial planning, industrial upgrade pathways, and resource element layout [27][28][29][30]. Implementation Support - Focus on compiling a list of strategic deployments and conducting specialized research in key areas such as investment attraction and public service enhancement [31][32]. Innovative Planning Methods - The need for multi-level connection mechanisms, integration of big data and AI technologies, and the creation of immersive, interactive planning systems to enhance transparency and effectiveness [35][36][38].

今年是"十四五"规划收官之年。五年来，日新月异的中国，用实绩标注高质量发展的新高度。传统产业 升级，新兴产业壮大，未来产业超前布局。经济发展、科技进步、民生改善的丰硕成果，正实打实地转 化为群众的获得感和幸福感。国的宏大叙事，照亮万家灯火中的寻常日子；家的柴米油盐，共同绘就美 好生活的壮丽画卷。 山河焕新颜，家国共此时。双节承载着家国相依的深厚逻辑，蕴含着九州同梦的美好愿景。站在"十四 五"规划收官与"十五五"新征程开启的历史交汇点，人人争做弄潮儿，共同汇聚起推动国家前行的磅礴 力量。 时值乙巳金秋，国庆假期恰逢中秋佳节。这是时序赋予的天成巧思，也是独属于中国人的浪漫寄思—— 双节同辉聚合力，携手同心谱华章。 缤纷绚丽的巨型花坛演绎盛世华彩，明艳的"中国红"在街头巷尾飘扬，"生日快乐""为祖国比心"刷屏朋 友圈……当"国的庆典"与"家的团圆"在丰收时节相遇，人们用各种方式表达着对祖国的热爱和祝福。个 人与民族、传统与现代，在此刻同心共振。 天安门广场盛装亮相，长安街华灯璀璨。上个月，这里隆重举行了纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西 斯战争胜利80周年大会，三军列阵，钢铁洪流奔涌。从"九三"的荣光到"十一"的欢歌 ...

招待会开始。全场起立，高唱中华人民共和国国歌，雄壮的《义勇军进行曲》在大厅回 荡。 习近平发表重要讲话。他首先代表党中央和国务院，向全国各族人民、向中国人民解放 军指战员和武警部队官兵、向各民主党派和无党派人士致以节日祝贺，向香港特别行政区同 胞、澳门特别行政区同胞、台湾同胞和海外侨胞致以诚挚问候，向长期以来关心和支持中国 建设事业的友好国家和国际友人致以衷心感谢。 习近平指出，新中国76年来，党领导人民自力更生、接续奋斗，取得彪炳史册的辉煌 成就。回望历史，中华民族从濒临危亡走向伟大复兴，一路筚路蓝缕、充满艰辛，也一路豪 情满怀、凯歌高奏。前不久，我们隆重纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80 周年，极大振奋了民族精神、激发了爱国热情、凝聚了奋斗力量。要继续用好历史经验，把 国家建设得更好，让老一辈领导人和革命先烈开创的事业不断欣欣向荣。 新华社北京9月30日电 庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会30日晚在人民大会堂举 行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平出席招待会并发表重要讲话。他强 调，实现中华民族伟大复兴是前无古人的伟大事业。憧憬和挑战，都激发我们只争朝夕、永 不懈怠的奋斗精神。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q4, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the domestic mine operating rate faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the long-term market expectation has significantly improved, and this year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply-demand balance sheet of the downstream steel sector can achieve a "soft landing." The ideal scenario is for steel mills to proactively ease the steel inventory pressure through early maintenance and production cuts based on the anticipation of profit contraction, creating a favorable upward space for the industrial chain. Conversely, if the production adjustment of steel mills lags, the shrinking terminal demand will exacerbate the finished product inventory contradiction, triggering the negative feedback risk of the black industrial chain and restricting the rebound height of coal prices [1][54]. - The trading range of the coking coal main contract is (1100, 1300), and that of the coke main contract is (1550, 1800). Adopt a range-bound trading strategy for single-sided positions, and focus on the reverse spread between the January and May contracts of coking coal, with an recommended entry range of (-70, -60) [1][54]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first half of the year, due to factors such as the tariff war, the market had a generally pessimistic outlook on the far-month contracts. As a result, all links in the industrial chain continuously reduced speculative inventories, and the terminal replenishment willingness was low, leading to a deteriorating coking coal inventory structure. A large amount of inventory was积压 at the upstream mines, weakening their bargaining power and resulting in frequent price cuts for promotion. Although the supply-demand contradiction of coke itself was not prominent supported by high hot metal production, the coke price remained difficult to stabilize and showed overall weakness due to the collapse of cost support [2]. - Since June, the expected weak export did not occur. Instead, the year-on-year growth rate of steel exports remained high, and the inventory-to-sales ratio of the five major steel products continued to decline, indicating a healthy steel fundamentals. Meanwhile, the low domestic mine operation and insufficient imported arrivals led to a tightened coking coal supply. Domestically, affected by environmental protection restrictions and regional safety accidents, the operating rates of major coal-producing areas were generally lower than the seasonal average. In terms of imports, the shrinking import profit due to the continuous decline of domestic coal prices in the first half of the year suppressed the import enthusiasm, and the net import volume of coking coal decreased month by month. This structural gap laid the fundamental basis for the subsequent rebound of coking coal. From a valuation perspective, the basis of the coking coal main contract fluctuated between -150 and 150 yuan/ton in the past two years, and this value reached the upper limit at the end of May, indicating significant overselling in the futures market. Subsequently, coking coal started a valuation repair rebound. As the basis turned negative, the cash-and-carry funds entered the market, driving the long-dormant speculative demand to recover and promoting downstream coking enterprises to conduct concentrated replenishment, forming a spiral strengthening mechanism of "futures market rebound - stimulating downstream replenishment - mine de-stocking and price support" [6]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Coking Coal Supply: Domestic Coal is Constrained by Policies, and the Operating Rate has a Theoretical Upper Limit - Since July, the national level has elevated the political significance of "anti-involution" in the coal industry to curb disorderly competition and stabilize coal prices. Shanxi Province, as the core production area of coking coal in China, accounts for nearly half of the output and is mainly composed of large state-owned mines, playing a strong exemplary and binding role in policy implementation. Shanxi proposed a production strategy of "increasing output to offset price decline" multiple times in the first half of the year, and there were also overproduction phenomena in some other provinces. From January to June, the output of above-scale industrial raw coal was 2.40 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and the cumulative output was the highest in the same period of the past five years, overusing the production quota for the second half of the year to some extent. To achieve the policy goals of controlling production and stabilizing prices for the whole year, it is expected that major production areas (especially Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi) will face strong overproduction inspection pressure before the end of the year, and the mine operating rate has a theoretical upper limit, which is expected to provide phased support for coking coal prices [11]. - The recently issued "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)" by five departments clearly states that it is necessary to "stabilize the supply of raw fuels, increase the supply and price stability of raw fuels such as iron ore and coking coal, support the normal production of compliant mining enterprises, and avoid 'one-size-fits-all' industry rectification measures." This statement sends a clear policy signal that while ensuring safety production and compliant operation, more attention will be paid to the stability and continuity of the supply side to prevent sharp price fluctuations of raw materials caused by excessive supply tightening. Based on this orientation, the possibility of coking coal prices skyrocketing as in 2021 is relatively low. The current policy environment emphasizes "supply stability and price control" and "precise regulation," which is fundamentally different from the background of strong supply constraints and concentrated demand release in 2021. In addition, the strong overseas demand in 2021 provided additional support for prices, while although exports still show resilience this year, there is limited room for further growth on the basis of last year's high base, making it difficult to reproduce the combined effect of domestic and foreign demand [14]. 3.2 Coking Coal Imports: Pay Attention to the Impact of Imported Coal on the Balance Sheet - Currently, China's dependence on imported coking coal is approaching 20%, and the influence of imported coal on the domestic supply structure is continuously increasing. Since July, the price of Mongolian coal has rebounded by more than 300 yuan/ton from the low level, and the import profit has been rapidly repaired, significantly boosting the customs clearance enthusiasm of major ports such as Ganqimaodu. In terms of seaborne coal, as the domestic coking coal price rebounded, the import window was reopened. Recently, the coal shipments of major global coal-exporting countries have significantly increased, and it is expected that the arrivals of seaborne coking coal will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. Against the background of the constraints on domestic coal mine operation by factors such as overproduction inspection, safety supervision, and environmental protection, the effective supplement of imported coal helps to relieve the supply pressure. On the other hand, the increasing import dependence also brings hidden concerns about the stability of coking coal supply. If domestic production continues to be restricted and there are disturbances in port transportation, policies, or geopolitics for imported coal (especially Mongolian coal with an increasing proportion), the coking coal supply-demand balance may be broken, significantly impacting prices. Therefore, coking coal imports will be one of the key variables affecting the coking coal market balance in the second half of the year [16]. 3.3 Demand: Positive Outlook at the End of the Year, Pay Attention to the Start Time of Winter Storage - During the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as coal mine holidays and logistics disruptions, the coking coal supply is temporarily tightened, and downstream enterprises usually conduct raw material reserves in advance to ensure production continuity, which is the "winter storage" process. The scale of winter storage is not only restricted by the actual supply but also affected by the downstream's expectation of the market in the coming year. When the expectation is optimistic, the replenishment is active; when it is pessimistic, the reserve is cautious. Looking back at the recent years' patterns, downstream coking plants usually start winter storage about 70 days before the Spring Festival, and the start time is strongly correlated with the rebound of the futures market. In most years, the winter storage behavior starts about one week after the rebound of the main contract and lasts until one week before the Spring Festival (except in 2024, when the market was overly pessimistic about the future, and the futures market did not show a seasonal rebound). The Spring Festival in 2025 is relatively late. Based on the historical winter storage rhythm, it is expected that this round of winter storage will start in mid-to-late November. Considering that 2026 is the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the policy expectation is positive, the market sentiment is expected to improve compared with last year. Therefore, although it is the traditional off-season, it is expected that the coking coal price will have strong bottom support and certain rebound potential at the end of this year [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply-Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Analysis - When the demand shrinks and causes steel mills to suffer losses, the profit pressure will be transmitted upstream along the industrial chain, usually manifested as steel mills reducing the purchase price of coke, thereby squeezing the coking profit. This feature was显著 in January - February and August - September 2024. In the first half of 2025, benefiting from the continuous decline of coking coal prices, the profits of steel mills and coking plants were generally stable, and there was no large-scale loss, especially the profit performance of steel mills was good. However, since July, as the expectation of the "Anti-Involution" policy has increased, the coking coal price has rebounded strongly, and the downstream profits have begun to be damaged. Coking plants have been the first to fall into losses, and the steel mill profits have also shrunk. Currently, most coking coal mines have turned losses into profits, and most steel products except for rebar can still maintain a profit of 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while coking plants have become the weakest link in the industrial chain, and some regions are approaching the break-even point or even suffering losses. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, if the coking coal price strengthens again due to supply contraction or the negative feedback of the black industrial chain occurs driven by weak demand, the downstream profits will be further pressured, ultimately leading to the reduction of blast furnace and coke oven production, which will in turn restrict the rebound space of coking coal prices [34]. 4.2 Supply-Demand Outlook - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "Anti-Involution" and "Overproduction Inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic coking coal mines has a theoretical upper limit, and the monthly average output may be lower than the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the import profit of coking coal has been significantly repaired compared with the first half of the year, promoting the increase of coking coal imports, and the import proportion is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Overall, although the imports effectively supplement the domestic supply, the coking coal market is unlikely to experience obvious oversupply under the limited domestic output. In addition, as the starting year of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026, the positive policy expectation boosts the market sentiment, and the downstream winter storage enthusiasm has increased. It is expected that this year's winter storage scale will be better than the same period last year, providing certain support for the coal price at the end of the year [37]. - There is a strong positive correlation between the short-term supply of coke and the immediate coking profit. As the post-festival coking coal replenishment demand temporarily declines and a round of coke price increase is implemented, the coking profit is expected to be slightly repaired, driving the short-term coke output to remain stable. Due to the high cost of starting and stopping coke ovens, coking plants usually maintain continuous production during the Spring Festival, so there is no significant seasonal characteristic in coke supply. It is expected that the output at the end of the year will be flexibly adjusted according to the coking profit. From the perspective of the capacity structure, the coke industry has been in a long-term overcapacity situation, resulting in its weak bargaining power in the industrial chain. The price mainly follows the fluctuation of the cost-side coking coal, showing obvious cost-driven characteristics. Although the winter storage demand for coking coal in the fourth quarter will support the coke price to a certain extent, limited by the bargaining power, the strength and sustainability of the coke price rebound are expected to be less than those of coking coal. It is recommended that industrial customers pay attention to the selling hedging opportunities of the near-month main contracts to avoid the risk of adverse price fluctuations [39]. - Recently, the rebound of coal prices has caused the steel mill profits to decline from the high level, and some products such as rebar have suffered losses, indicating that the pressure of profit contraction is being transmitted. However, most steel mills can still maintain a profitable state and have not reached the critical point of the negative feedback of the black industrial chain. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain resilient in the short term. However, as the traditional off-season for the black industry in the fourth quarter, the weakening demand will impact the steel supply-demand balance sheet, and the current relatively high hot metal production of over 2.4 million tons per day is difficult to maintain for a long time. In addition, there is also the pressure to meet the annual crude steel production reduction target in the fourth quarter, which may prompt steel mills to adjust their production plans in advance, helping to ease the steel inventory pressure. However, once the production adjustment of steel mills lags or the actual implementation of the crude steel production reduction policy is less than expected, the steel inventory pressure may further increase. Compared with the first half of the year, the absolute value of steel mill profits has significantly decreased, and the sensitivity of steel mills to losses has increased. If the profits are squeezed again, it is easy to trigger a negative feedback decline in the black industrial chain [50].

| 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 上证指数 | | 3882.78 +20.25 +0.52% | | | | 399001 深证成指 | | 13526.51 +47.08 +0.35% | | | | 399006 创业板指 | | 3238.16 | | | | 000688 科创50 | | 1495.29 +24.88 +1.69% | | | 三大指数月线均收涨，其中创业板指本月累计涨超12%创三年多新高，科创50指数涨超11%创近四年新高。 9月30日，A股主要指数今日多数录得上涨，截至收盘，沪指涨0.52%报3882点，深证成指涨0.35%，创业板指平收。全市场成交额2.2万亿元，较前一交易日 增量191亿元，超2600股上涨。 消息面上，据2025年9月29日公告，公司及子公司与X公司签署战略合作协议，2025年8月至2029年底预计销售5420～6495吨镍粉，金额约43～50亿元，博迁 新材将成为X公司在中国境内的独家供应商，X公司获得特定型号产品独家购买权。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现 ...

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market may continue to oscillate after the holiday. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. The content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to adjust and consolidate before the holiday. In the later stage, focus should be on the recovery of coal mine production and downstream steel demand [8]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels, with a weakening market sentiment. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to gradually recover in September, the sharp decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [14]. - For ferroalloys, due to the influence of surrounding varieties, the previous short positions of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon can be reduced, and the current price is not suitable for chasing short positions [17][18]. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. Shanghai's rebar price is 3240 yuan (-10), and hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector continued to decline on the night of the 29th. The overall output of the five major steel products increased last week, but hot - rolled coil production decreased. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil weakened, while rebar demand continued to recover. After the holiday, steel demand may recover to some extent, but there is still pressure on steel prices before the holiday. The rebar valuation is low at present, and the downside space is limited. The market rumors that Tangshan will implement production restrictions, so the post - holiday market may continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread. Options: Observe [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On September 29th, some steel mills in Hebei, Tianjin and other regions raised the coke purchase price for the first time. Three coal mines in Linfen Xiangning will stop production for 3 - 7 days from October 1st, with a total impact on raw coal of about 206,000 tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: As the holiday approaches, the replenishment of coking coal and coke is basically completed, and the market has strong risk - aversion sentiment. In the medium term, domestic coking coal production will be restricted, and the supply side has policy support. It is expected that the market will adjust and consolidate before the holiday [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the short term, it is still regarded as a wide - range oscillation, with a focus on risk - aversion before the holiday; in the medium term, try to go long on dips. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Observe. Futures - cash: Observe [9][10][11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd. In August, the country issued 571.5 billion yuan in new bonds. On September 29th, the trading volume of iron ore at major ports was 584,000 tons, a 46% increase from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. Before the holiday, iron ore prices fell from high levels, and the market sentiment weakened. In terms of fundamentals, mainstream mines have improved since the third quarter, and non - mainstream mines have maintained high shipments. The terminal steel demand has declined rapidly in the third quarter, and iron ore valuation remains high in the black - metal sector [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Weak operation. Arbitrage: Mainly conduct futures - cash reverse arbitrage. Options: Mainly use circuit - breaker cumulative put options [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 29th, the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were stable. The Politburo held a meeting on September 29th to discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, on the 29th, the spot price was slightly weaker, and the supply pressure remained. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed. For manganese - silicon, the spot price was also slightly weaker, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand was relatively stable. After being dragged down by surrounding varieties, the current valuation is neutral [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options for protection. Arbitrage: Observe. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19].