Core Viewpoint - The international financial market has shown high volatility since November, with a weakening US dollar and stronger performance of major non-US currencies, while China's foreign exchange market remains stable [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with a stable scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, resulting in a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, which is roughly the same as October [1] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8%, with a cross-border balance surplus of 17.8 billion USD, lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Flows - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable, indicating resilience in foreign trade and foreign investment in China [1] - Recent trends show that capital flows under securities investment have become more stable, contributing to the overall steady expectations in the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable despite fluctuations in the international financial market, with a weakening US dollar and strong performance of major non-US currencies [1] Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market continue to maintain a basic balance, with a foreign exchange settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, which is roughly the same as in October [1] - The scale of bank settlements and sales remains stable [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] - The cross-border capital flow surplus was 17.8 billion USD, lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1] Group 3: Overall Economic Resilience - The current foreign trade and foreign investment in China show resilience, with stable cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange market expectations [1] - Foreign exchange trading is described as steady and orderly [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stability despite fluctuations in the international financial market, with a weakening US dollar index and stronger performance of major non-US currencies [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market have remained basically balanced, with a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, which is comparable to October's figures [1][2] - Cross-border receipts and payments have remained active, with total cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reaching 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1][2] Group 2: Cross-Border Transactions - The cross-border balance showed a surplus of 17.8 billion USD in November, which is lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD observed in September and October [1][2] - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stability in November 2025, with a balanced supply and demand despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market in China has continued to operate smoothly, with a stable scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, resulting in a surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, which is comparable to October [1] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flow - The cross-border capital flow showed a surplus of 17.8 billion USD in November, which is lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In November 2025, banks settled $209.5 billion and sold $193.8 billion in foreign exchange [1] - From January to November 2025, cumulative bank settlements reached $2,276.9 billion, while cumulative sales totaled $2,180.4 billion [1] - The foreign exchange settlement surplus in November was $15.7 billion, remaining consistent with October's figures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors totaled $1.3 trillion in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border balance recorded a surplus of $17.8 billion, lower than the average surplus of $24 billion in September and October [1] - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China remains stable, with a balanced supply and demand, despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Stability - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained a basic balance in supply and demand, with a settlement surplus of 15.7 billion USD in November, which is roughly the same as in October [1] - The cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flow - The cross-border capital flow showed a surplus of 17.8 billion USD in November, which is lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing a narrow consolidation phase, influenced by central bank policies, Swiss economic data, and global risk sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its December 11 meeting, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The SNB adjusted its inflation forecasts, lowering the 2026 inflation expectation from 0.5% to 0.3% and the 2027 expectation from 0.7% to 0.6% [1]. - The SNB expressed openness to further rate cuts if deflationary pressures persist, although it noted that the threshold for negative rates is relatively high [2]. Group 2: Economic Data - The Swiss economy is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the SNB projecting a GDP growth rate of slightly below 1.5% for 2025 and around 1% for 2026 [2]. - However, the Swiss economy faced a contraction in Q3, and the unemployment rate has been rising in recent months [2]. - In the U.S., mixed non-farm payroll data for November indicates a slowdown in economic recovery, which has somewhat restrained the strength of the dollar [2]. Group 3: Global Risk Sentiment - The Swiss franc, as a traditional safe-haven currency, is sensitive to geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties [2]. - Changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the reduction of tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, have positively impacted the Swiss economic outlook [2]. - The SNB reiterated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, adding uncertainty to the franc's trajectory [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term core trading range for USD/CHF is identified as 0.7940-0.7960, with 0.7940 acting as a key support level [3]. - Resistance levels are concentrated in the 0.7960-0.7980 range [3]. - Future movements in the exchange rate will depend on U.S. core economic data, Swiss inflation figures, and statements from the Federal Reserve and SNB officials [3].

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.04%, reaching 1.1757, following a V-shaped movement after the non-farm payroll report, but overall continued the earlier day's upward trend, hitting a high above 1.18 [1] - The British pound against the US dollar rose by 0.37%, reaching 1.3426, while the US dollar against the Swiss franc decreased by 0.19%, settling at 0.7947 [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.09%, while the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar increased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the Canadian dollar declined by 0.14% [1]

美国国债收益率扭转了早前的跌势，收益率在欧洲午盘交易中持稳。Exness的Terence Hove在一份报告 中称，即将公布的数据，包括10月份零售额在内，"预计将为美国经济的内在实力提供更清晰的信号， 此前数周的数据因政府停摆而受到干扰"。目前，市场预期美联储到明年年底将降息两次。"今天的数据 结果可能会改变这些预期，从而推动外汇和债券市场的波动，"该市场策略师说。根据Tradeweb的数 据，两年期美国国债收益率稳定在3.505%，而10年期美国国债收益率下跌0.6个基点，至4.174%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Macro Analysis - In November 2025, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the fading high base effect and sustained overseas demand [1] - Looking ahead, December's export growth may face high base effects, but optimism remains for next year's overseas demand due to global fiscal expansion and improved China-US trade relations [1] Real Estate Industry - As of December 7, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 720,000 units, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year; Beijing saw 37,000 units (-19%), Shanghai 95,000 units (-5%), and Shenzhen 25,000 units (-33%) [2] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 711,000 units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year; Beijing recorded 160,000 units (+1%), Shanghai 236,000 units (+8%), and Shenzhen 64,000 units (+9%) [2] Company Research - For Anjins Food (603345.SH), the forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.391 billion, 1.513 billion, and 1.672 billion yuan, translating to EPS of 4.17, 4.54, and 5.02 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times respectively [3] - The company's short-term operations are improving, with a gradual recovery in profitability expected as industry price competition eases; if the consumption environment improves next year, performance elasticity is anticipated [3] - New products and channel strategies are actively evolving, with expected positive outcomes in the future, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]