Report General Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] Report Core Content 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash: The short - term contradiction in the industry has been alleviated, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. With the improvement of macro - sentiment, the arrival of the peak season, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the soda ash futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro changes [8]. - Glass: The overall glass production shows a slight upward trend, and industry profits have improved. Industry inventory has started to accumulate again. Affected by the peak - season demand and anti - involution expectations, the glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slightly strong trend in the short term [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On September 16, the price of the main soda ash futures contract SA601 rebounded significantly, closing at 1339 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 3.15%, with a daily reduction of 101,682 lots in positions [7]. - Fundamentally, the weekly production growth rate has slowed down, and the inventory reduction has decreased. The high - inventory and weak - demand situation persists. The weekly production reached 761,100 tons, a 1.24% increase from the previous week. The factory inventory decreased to 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons from last Thursday. The total shipment volume was 785,700 tons, a 1.44% decrease from the previous week, and the overall shipment rate was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points [8]. - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the overall glass production has slightly increased but is still at a low level. Spot prices have rebounded, and industry profits have improved. Deep - processing orders remain basically unchanged, mainly driven by rigid demand, and inventory has started to accumulate again. Different types of glass have different market situations. The supply - side pressure of float glass has been marginally relieved, and the cost side has certain support, but the demand side remains weak. The demand for new - house glass continues to decline, while the production of automobiles and home appliances is increasing, providing some support for glass demand. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9][10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy - soda market price, and flat - glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][15][17]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bottom support of nickel and stainless steel prices is relatively stable, and the prices are rising. Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged pattern of oversupply and limited upside space. Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding as inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks and material costs have risen. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,580 yuan/ton, a change of 1.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 102,679 (- 42,422) lots, and the open interest was 70,610 (- 2,030) lots. The night session of the main contract stabilized at a high level, standing above 122,000 yuan/ton. After the opening of the day session, it declined slightly but then rose with the overall metal sector, reaching a maximum of 122,900 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel Ore - The market remained calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. Downstream nickel - iron had a strong bullish sentiment, but iron plants were still in the red and were cautious in nickel - ore procurement. In Indonesia, the supply remained loose, with the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price rising by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars. The current domestic trade premium was +24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand were slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 24,959 (+1,430) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 224,484 (- 600) tons [2]. Strategy for Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are mainly in a volatile market, and the overall strategy is based on range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On September 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 13,070 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 180,934 (+180,934) lots, and the open interest was 133,829 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session trend was stable, but after the opening of the day session, affected by the price increase of a large domestic stainless - steel plant, the price rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 13,100 yuan/ton and slightly retracting at the close [3]. Spot - Affected by the rise of the futures price, the spot price increased. Although the acceptance of high - priced goods was low, inquiries increased significantly, market activity improved, and actual transactions were fair. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - With inventory decreasing for nine consecutive weeks and material costs rising, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The subsequent demand situation in the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4].

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with oscillations due to fluctuating expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Coke: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][15] - Logs: Oscillatory and erratic [2][17] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as market expectations, macro sentiment, and industry fundamentals [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of I2601 closed at 796.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.44%); the position decreased by 7,364 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore mostly declined, while some domestic ore prices rose. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [4] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.93%); for HC2510, it was 3,398 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.71%). Spot prices in most regions increased. Some basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: From January to August 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, down 3.3% month - on - month [9][10] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed. There were changes in basis, spread, and cross - variety spread [11] - **News**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 0.7% year - on - year; the daily average output was 249.6 million tons, down 2.8% month - on - month [11] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal remained stable, while some coke prices declined. Some basis and spread values changed [15] - **News**: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal [15] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [18] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [20] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [20]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on September 16, 2025, including fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength [1]. 1. Fundamental Data Futures Data - The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 are 5700 and 5660 respectively, with increases of 92 and 86 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 200,143 and 61,942, and the open interests are 213,259 and 94,956 [1]. - The closing prices of silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 are 5894 and 5906 respectively, with increases of 72 and 74 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 100,883 and 184,056, and the open interests are 118,581 and 327,726 [1]. Spot Data - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. Spread Data - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 400 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 40 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 194 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 246 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 15, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5150 - 5250, Ningxia 5250 - 5350 (- 50), Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5300 - 5350 (+ 50), Inner Mongolia 5250 - 5300. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in different regions was also provided. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon were 1040 - 1060 and 1100 - 1130 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The daily average crude steel output in August was 249.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [1]. - In August 2025, South Korea's silicomanganese imports were 15902 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1738 tons (a decrease of 9.85%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.66%. The main importing countries were Malaysia (13495 tons), Vietnam (1725 tons), and Bhutan (329 tons) [2][3]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend strength of silicomanganese is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate meeting and the warming domestic macro - sentiment, the bulk market is strong, driving a short - term rebound in urea. With significant volume in low - price spot transactions on Monday, low - price spot is temporarily stable in the short term, and high - price spot is moving towards low - price spot. So, with a strong macro and increased spot trading volume, short - term urea futures and spot prices are expected to be supported in the oscillation. Medium - term, the downward trend logic remains unchanged. Urea still maintains a high premium, and the high valuation may limit the speculative upside of the market. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On September 16, the closing price of urea futures was 1,683 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,679 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The trading volume of the urea main contract (01 contract) was 166,237 lots, an increase of 41,590 lots; the open interest was 284,978 lots, a decrease of 15,607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,613 tons, a decrease of 234 tons; the trading volume was 558.324 million yuan, an increase of 142.652 million yuan. The basis in Shandong was - 43, down 40; the basis of Fengxi - futures was - 143, down 20; the basis of Dongguang - futures was 17, down 20. The spread between UR01 and UR05 was - 48, up 7. [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Shandong Ruixing decreased by 20 yuan to 1,600 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi remained unchanged. The supply - side indicators showed that the daily output was 185,090 tons, an increase of 200 tons, and the operating rate was 79.12%, an increase of 0.09%. [1] Industry News - On September 15, the daily output of the urea industry was 191,200 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous day and 1,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.51% from 85.24% in the same period last year. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,490 yuan/ton, closed at 120,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,281 (+7,501) lots, and the open interest was 80,837 (3,364) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract was affected by the decline in LME nickel prices at night and the lower - than - expected domestic August CPI data during the day. Although there were some bargain - hunting purchases in the afternoon, the rebound was limited due to high inventory and capacity release expectations [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes are firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. A major steel mill in South China has a new tender price of 955 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold). In Indonesia, the supply remains loose, and the September (first phase) premium is - 24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price is 123,200 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The spot trading is generally average, and the premiums of refined nickel brands are slightly adjusted [2]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, the short - term trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 109,512 (+16,944) lots, and the open interest was 123,179 (-4,171) lots [3]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract was weak at night and showed a volatile trend. During the day, it was driven by the strong trend of the black series and slightly rose to 12,980 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation until the close [3]. - In the spot market, affected by the futures market and rising raw material costs, the spot quotes increased. The supply of hot - rolled products is tight, and the inquiry and transaction situation has slightly improved. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,200 (+50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium is 255 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron is 950.5 yuan/nickel point, a 5.00 - yuan/nickel point change from the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the macro sentiment improved, but it still couldn't stop the decline in styrene prices. With the decrease in the pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) and the increase in the profit of EB non - integrated plants, the overall valuation is moderately high. Under the situation of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production has increased. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production has rebounded slightly, due to the weak supply - demand situation, the inventory in factories and ports has increased significantly, with weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high this month, but styrene prices still fell [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > futures > cost), with the basis weakening, the BZN spread weakening, and the profit of EB non - integrated plants weakening [11]. - **Cost**: The price of East China pure benzene fell by - 3.86% this month, and the pure benzene operation rate was moderately high. In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5078800 tons, a 43.24% increase from June and a 45.27% increase from last year, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate was 79.7%, a 2.53% increase from the previous month, a 14.84% increase from last year, and a 5.42% increase compared to the same period in the past five years. According to the production plan, there are fewer production plans in the third quarter and more maintenance in September, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Import and Export**: In July, the EB import volume was 221000 tons, a 0.26% increase from June and an 18.45% increase from last year. With the reduction of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the import volume has recovered [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operation rate of the downstream three - S was 42.73%, a - 2.53% decrease from the previous month; the PS operation rate was 61.00%, a 1.84% increase from the previous month and an 18.24% increase from last year; the EPS operation rate was 52.52%, a - 9.98% decrease from the previous month and a - 4.73% decrease from last year; the ABS operation rate was 69.00%, a - 2.54% decrease from the previous month and a 10.58% increase from last year. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operation rate will fluctuate and rise at a low level [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory EB inventory was 214900 tons, a 1.61% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 28.62% increase compared to the same period last year; the EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 196500 tons, a 23.58% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 568.37% increase compared to the same period last year. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price [11]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: For styrene (EB2510), the reference fluctuation range is (6900 - 7200) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread is oscillating at the bottom. Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, spreads between different contracts, trading volume, and open interest, etc. [17][19][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory [33][35]. - **Profit**: Styrene profit has declined. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method (85%), followed by the PO/SM co - production method (12%) and the C8 extraction method (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [40][42][46] 3.4 Cost - **Production Plan**: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter [50]. - **Spread and Profit**: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward, and the pure benzene import profit chart shows historical data [60]. - **Operation Rate**: The pure benzene operation rate is moderately high, and charts show the operation rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated pure benzene [67]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of caprolactam is oscillating at a high level. The demand for pure benzene downstream is mainly for styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol (16%), aniline (13%), adipic acid (7%), and others (5%) [86][90] 3.5 Supply - **Production Plan**: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of styrene is 242, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419.8. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter, which may support prices [100]. - **Production and Trade**: Styrene plants have started to restart, and the production volume is at a high level in the same period. Charts show the daily production volume, export volume, weekly operation rate, and import volume of styrene [109][111] 3.6 Demand - **Downstream Operation and Profit**: The operation rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have rebounded with profit. Charts show the operation rates, production profits, and inventories of EPS, PS, and ABS. The downstream demand for styrene is mainly for PS (35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.), EPS (21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [119][123][127][137] - **Home Appliance Production and Sales**: The production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners has different trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate [138][146][150]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].