Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall reference view is bullish operation. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment has warmed up, and crude oil is oscillating strongly [1]. - Due to the significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US, the macro sentiment has weakened. The latest quarterly report of OPEC has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. As the market is worried about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium in the oil market has retreated. On Thursday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices, and it is expected that they may maintain a bullish trend on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Category Price and Market Performance - For domestic crude oil futures, on Thursday night, they maintained an oscillatory and bullish trend with a slight increase in prices [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factor: The significantly worse - than - expected September non - farm payroll data in the US has led to a weakening of macro sentiment [5]. - Supply - demand factor: OPEC's latest quarterly report has changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", increasing the expectation of loose supply [5]. - Geopolitical factor: The market's worry about a possible cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has led to the retreat of the geopolitical premium in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened. In the short term, as the overseas interest rate cut expectation rebounds, the market risk appetite increases, and the price forms a certain support at a low level. At the same time, the market expectation of real estate stabilization policies has increased, but the specific situation remains to be observed. The short-term steel price trend is relatively firm and operates in a range [3][9]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened [9]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities showed an upward trend, and the prices of imported iron ore also increased slightly. The prices of coking coal decreased, while the prices of coke remained stable. In terms of futures contracts, the prices of some contracts increased, while others decreased. The positions of long and short sides in some contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The weekly production of rebar blast furnaces was 207.96 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 316.01 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased, while the electric furnace production decreased [13][16][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 82.19% (a week-on-week decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 0.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.13% (a week-on-week increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils both weakened on a week-on-week basis. The profit of rebar was -30 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 1 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 94 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -57 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 16 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 121 yuan/ton) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.66% and a year-on-year increase of 2.41%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 324.42 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The total inventory of rebar was 553.34 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.32%). The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory remaining stable. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 402.11 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 27.56%) [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both improved on a week-on-week basis. In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles in October continued to increase both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, setting a new high for the same period in history [46][49][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume at ports increased. The iron ore price index was 103.71 (a week-on-week increase of 0.62% and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%). The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2637.4 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 9.32% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2817.1 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 24.16% and a year-on-year increase of 22.63%) [54][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased on a week-on-week basis, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 236.28 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.48 million tons), the port clearance volume of 45 iron ore ports was 329.92 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 0.90%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.86 days (a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises also decreased slightly. The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 15054.65 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.65 days (a week-on-week decrease of 5.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%) [64][69]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.94% (a week-on-week increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%), and the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 18.82 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 12.42%) [71][75]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased on a week-on-week basis. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was +37.3% (a week-on-week decrease of 35.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%), and the weekly transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 59% (a week-on-week decrease of 17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%) [76][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +19 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 53 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.71% (a week-on-week increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased on a week-on-week basis, and the inventory of coking plants also decreased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 888.87 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02%), the coking coal inventory of steel plants was 797.30 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 6.89%), and the port inventory of coking coal was 291.5 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.82%) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory of coke decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.44 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 20.17% and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%), the coke inventory of steel plants was 622.34 million tons (remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%), and the port inventory of coke was 193 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.93%) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the price remained stable for the time being, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke was 1540 yuan/ton (in Handan, remaining stable on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [97][102]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1-5 spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar widened slightly, and the 1-5 spreads of coking coal and coke continued to shrink [104][108].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 铝期货方面：2025-11-19日沪铝主力合约开于21485元/吨，收于21570元/吨，较上一交易日变化25元/吨，最 高价达21620元/吨，最低价达到21435元/吨。全天交易日成交202981手，全天交易日持仓347833手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.6万吨，较上一期变化2.5万吨，仓单库存69484 吨，较上一交易日变化0吨，LME铝库存546075吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得321美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-19氧化铝主力合约开于2776元/吨，收于2740元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-53 元/吨，变化幅度-1.90%，最高价达到2794元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交302092手，全天交易日 持仓426124手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-1 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡回7.7万，今日现铜76440元，平水铜咯微贴水85元。SMM社库增加200吨至21.96万吨。隔夜美联储 褐皮书显示通胀持续放缓,强化联储下次25个基点降息的预期,多地联储表示制造业活动下降。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]