1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by the better - than - expected US economy, the hawkish stance of the FOMC, and tariff developments. The dollar index is approaching 100, US bond yields are rising, and the stock and commodity markets are experiencing adjustments [2]. - In the domestic market, after the Politburo meeting and the Sino - US negotiations did not exceed expectations, the market risk preference declined. The stock market style shifted to high - dividend stocks, the commodity market sentiment cooled, and the bond market rebounded [3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Precious metals are under pressure, copper shows a mixed trend, aluminum is oscillating, and other commodities also present various price movements based on their respective fundamentals and macro - factors [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The July statement downgraded the economic growth assessment, and Powell's hawkish remarks emphasized inflation control. The market reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year to 1 time, and the probability of a September rate cut dropped to 41%. The US Q2 GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rebounded to 3.0%, better than the expected 2.4%. Trump announced a series of tariff measures starting from August 1st, which affected market sentiment [2]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting continued the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", emphasizing the consolidation of the economic recovery momentum. The market risk preference declined, and the stock, commodity, and bond markets showed corresponding adjustments [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to correct. COMEX gold futures fell 1.58% to $3327.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.90% to $37.175 per ounce. Powell's hawkish remarks and strong economic data led to a delay in the market's expectation of the first rate cut this year, putting pressure on the prices of gold and silver. Short - term precious metals are expected to remain weak [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - Trump's tariff on imported semi - finished copper and copper - intensive derivatives (excluding refined copper) caused the US copper price to plunge nearly 20%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in July, and Powell remained cautious, slightly dampening market sentiment. In the industry, the second - stage pumping work at the Kamoa mine is progressing actively. It is expected that Shanghai copper will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Fed maintained interest rates stable, and strong US economic data did not support rate - cut expectations. The domestic meeting indicated that macro - policies will maintain a growth - stabilizing orientation in the second half of the year. The aluminum market has no clear direction, and aluminum prices are expected to remain oscillating [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina spot market is structurally tight, with low delivery inventory. Supported by news of domestic delivery requirements and overseas supply disruptions, alumina is expected to maintain a relatively positive oscillating trend [10]. 3.6 Zinc - US economic data was strong, the Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the dollar strengthened. The fundamental situation of zinc remained weak, with an expected increase in refined zinc production in August and weak demand. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - The reduction and resumption of production co - exist in primary and secondary lead smelters. The transportation of raw materials and products in Ningxia is affected. The supply tension has eased, and the terminal demand is differentiated. Lead prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - Strong US economic data and the Fed's unchanged interest rates led to a stronger dollar, putting pressure on tin prices. The tin market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with weak supply and demand in China. Tin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, waiting for the guidance of the US July non - farm payroll data [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is firm. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows a mixed situation. The futures price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Policy expectations dominate the price direction. Overseas lithium ore supply is stable and abundant, and the demand is stable. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - Tariff disturbances continue, and the macro - level is still volatile. The shortage of nickel ore has eased, but the ore price has not significantly declined. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up oil prices, but the OPEC + may increase production in September, and the fundamentals may gradually become looser. Oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. 3.13 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The Politburo meeting emphasized policy continuity and stability. The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak production and sales pattern, and supply is expected to contract in mid - August. Steel futures prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot market trading is average, and the market sentiment is weakly stable. The port inventory has decreased this week, and the supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [24]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Sino - US negotiation results may weaken the export demand for new - season US soybeans. The domestic soybean procurement is insufficient in the long - term, and the supply is loose in the short - term. Rapeseed meal rebounds strongly, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The US employment data is strong, and the dollar index rises. The import of rapeseed is expected to decline, and rapeseed oil inventory decreases, leading to a compensatory rebound. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [27].

需要注意的是，黄金在避险与抗通胀双重角色之间频繁切换。当贸易协议有所进展，避险情绪降温，价 格往往承压；但一旦政策前景或经济预期出现松动，黄金便迅速获得资金关注。因此，当前的上涨是否 能持续，关键还在于美联储声明中是否透露出比预期更温和的政策基调。 不少交易者也在密切观察全球央行的黄金储备动向，近期部分新兴经济体央行持续购金，为金价提供了 中长期支撑。从结构性资金流角度看，ETF资金净流入是否恢复，也是判断金价能否走出反弹行情的重 要依据。 DLSM外汇认为金价本轮上涨更多地反映了市场对政策不确定性的前瞻性反应，而非单一事件驱动。在 美联储正式释放信号前，价格波动仍将频繁。对投资者而言，保持灵活、注重风险控制，或是当前贵金 属市场操作的核心要义。毕竟，这波反弹究竟是转势的前奏，还是昙花一现的技术修复，仍待观察更具 分量的消息落地之后才能真正定调。 投资者对即将出炉的美联储政策会议结果保持高度关注。尽管市场普遍预期本次会议将按兵不动，但焦 点早已从利率水平本身，转向美联储对未来利率路径的表态。如果决策者对通胀回落和就业增长持 更"鸽派"的看法，不排除年底前启动降息的可能性。这一预期构成了金价反弹的重要支撑。 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significance of the Huazhong Gold ETF as a pioneering investment product in China's capital market, emphasizing its role in asset allocation and its evolution over the past twelve years [1][20]. Group 1: Historical Development - The Huazhong Gold ETF was launched in July 2013, marking a significant innovation in the domestic market by connecting the securities market with the physical gold market [5][6]. - The product faced initial skepticism due to low gold prices but quickly established itself as a convenient investment tool for gold [5][9]. - Over the years, the ETF has adapted to market conditions, including periods of significant price volatility and changes in investor sentiment [9][11]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Impact - The Huazhong Gold ETF introduced a unique model combining physical gold and cash alternatives, facilitating easier access for investors [5][6]. - It has become a classic example of cross-market product innovation, allowing investors to trade gold efficiently through their securities accounts [7]. - The ETF has played a crucial role in enhancing the quality of asset allocation and wealth management for investors in China [7][20]. Group 3: Performance and Investor Engagement - The ETF's assets under management surpassed 10 billion yuan, becoming the largest gold ETF in Asia by August 2020 [12][13]. - The company has consistently engaged with investors through educational initiatives and market analysis, enhancing investor understanding and confidence [19][20]. - The ETF has been recognized in academic settings as a case study for its effectiveness as a hedging asset [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in gold demand, particularly from central banks, as geopolitical tensions rise and concerns about dollar assets increase [16][20]. - The Huazhong Gold ETF is positioned to remain a strategic asset in investors' portfolios, providing stability and diversification [18][20]. - The company aims to enhance investor education and risk awareness, ensuring sustainable growth and stability in the gold market [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has prompted consumers to consider buying opportunities, with prices for gold jewelry from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang dropping to around 1015 CNY per gram, down from approximately 1020 CNY per gram [1] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Sentiment - The recent price adjustment in gold is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in market sentiment, with international spot gold dropping over 1% from a five-week high of 3438 USD per ounce, and New York gold futures falling below 3400 USD [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au999 price fell to 780 CNY per gram, with a daily drop of 8.5 CNY, indicating a significant market reaction following a period of concentrated buying [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Influences - Changes in the macroeconomic environment, such as the US and Japan reaching an auto tariff agreement reducing tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, have injected stability into the global economy, leading funds that previously sought refuge in gold to shift towards riskier assets like stocks [5] - The US dollar index rebounded to 93.86, and US Treasury yields rose to 4.384%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold and diminishing its attractiveness as an investment [5] Group 3: Long-term Value and Investment Strategy - Despite the short-term price correction, the long-term value of gold remains strong, with global central bank gold purchases increasing by 59% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, particularly from major economies like China and India [5] - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, continue to exist, which could trigger renewed demand for gold as a safe haven [5] - For ordinary investors, the current price drop presents a valuable opportunity to consider gold investments, with recommendations to buy in batches to avoid purchasing at peak prices [6] Group 4: Price Correlation with the Dollar - Gold prices typically exhibit a negative correlation with the US dollar, where a stronger dollar often leads to lower gold prices and vice versa; however, this relationship is not absolute, as both can rise during extreme crises [6]

Group 1 - The CBOT soybean futures market experienced a slight decline, with support sought amid lower U.S. soybean crop ratings and trade negotiation news [1] - As of July 20, the U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rating was reported at 68%, below the market expectation of 71% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal futures price index has shown performance of -3.07% over the past year, -6.46% over the past two years, and +31.02% over the past three years [1] Group 2 - The soybean meal ETF (159985) is the only listed agricultural product ETF in the domestic market, showing a 0.30% increase today after four consecutive days of gains [1][2] - The soybean meal ETF has long-term investment value in asset allocation, inflation hedging, and roll yield, with low correlation to the stock market [2] - Soybean meal is the largest production variety among 12 oilseed meal feed types, indicating a strong spot market foundation [2]

Macro News - US President Trump stated he does not plan to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite new criticisms and not ruling out the possibility of dismissal [1] - Trump indicated that the US may maintain the tariff rates set for Japan and could reach a trade agreement with India, although he does not expect a broader agreement with Japan [1] - The EU is prepared to impose tariffs on US goods worth €72 billion (approximately $83.6 billion) if trade negotiations with Washington fail [1] Economic Outlook - The latest Federal Reserve economic report shows an increase in economic activity, but the outlook remains "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with rising price pressures due to increased import tariffs [2] - The New York Fed President Williams noted that current monetary policy is appropriate, allowing officials to observe the economy before taking further action, and warned that the impact of trade tariffs on the economy is just beginning [2] Gold Market Insights - Gold assets have gained market favor, with the RMB gold price rising 28.19% in 2024, outperforming the S&P 500 index and reaching historical highs [2] - The traditional framework of "real interest rates determine gold prices" is changing, with real interest rates having reduced predictive power since 2022 [3] - Central banks' large-scale gold purchases, challenges to dollar credit due to sanctions and fiscal deficits, and frequent geopolitical conflicts are driving gold's price increase beyond traditional models [3] - Gold's low correlation with equity assets provides excellent diversification benefits, enhancing the risk-return profile of stock-bond portfolios [3] - Given the current global macroeconomic uncertainties, gold is expected to play a strategic role in asset allocation, offering inflation and risk protection [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the complex motivations behind wealthy individuals holding multiple properties, emphasizing that real estate serves as a crucial component of their asset allocation strategy [1][5][12] - It highlights the stability and reliability of rental income from real estate investments, which provides a consistent cash flow despite market fluctuations [1][6][12] Group 1: Investment Logic - Real estate is perceived as a "hard currency" due to its high preservation rate, with core urban residential properties maintaining a value retention rate of 98.7% in 2024 [2] - The rental yield in first-tier cities remains stable between 2.5% and 3.2%, which, while modest, is valued for its reliability [1][2] - Investors view real estate as a "ballast" in their diversified portfolios, providing stability during market volatility [2][10] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The ongoing urbanization process supports housing demand, with the urbanization rate reaching 67.5% by the end of 2024, indicating a steady influx of population into cities [5] - The government's "housing is for living, not speculation" policy framework suggests that property prices will not experience extreme fluctuations, benefiting long-term holders [5][12] Group 3: Tax and Wealth Preservation - Holding real estate offers tax advantages compared to frequent buying and selling, as selling may incur significant personal income tax liabilities [6] - Real estate serves as a means of wealth preservation, especially in uncertain economic times, as it provides a tangible asset that can safeguard capital [6][10] Group 4: Long-term Value and Legacy - Wealthy individuals often purchase properties not just for personal use but also for future generations, as real estate is easier to pass down and less likely to cause disputes [7] - The investment philosophy of these individuals focuses on long-term strategic value rather than short-term gains, reflecting a more patient and calculated approach to wealth accumulation [7][12] Group 5: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Despite a cooling market, structural opportunities remain in core urban areas and high-quality districts in strong second-tier cities, which are still considered scarce resources [8][12] - The article suggests that real estate will continue to be a significant pillar of the Chinese economy, with a clear intention from policymakers to stabilize the market [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" Act may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices, but in the long - term, due to factors such as the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, economic slowdown, high inflation, and concerns about the US dollar's credit, the anti - inflation property of precious metals will be prominent, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise [5] - The Act's passage has led to an increase in the US debt ceiling, and the deficit may further expand, which also affects the US bond yields and the Fed's monetary policy [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tariffs & Trade Negotiations - The announcement of more tariffs by Trump has increased risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the market has not reacted strongly to the new US tariffs in August as the policies are still under negotiation, with many uncertainties [3] Economic Data - The overall impact of US economic data on precious metals is small. The US CPI data in June was in line with or slightly deviated from expectations, with the overall CPI and core CPI showing certain trends [3] Geopolitical Situation - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the possible breakdown of the Gaza cease - fire negotiation, the deadline for the Iran nuclear deal, and Trump's planned statement on Russia, support the precious metals market [3][4] "Big and Beautiful" Act and Debt - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act has pushed up the US debt ceiling, and the federal government's fiscal deficit is expected to increase by about $4.1 trillion in the next ten years, and may expand to $5.4 trillion if some tax - cut measures are extended [8] Federal Reserve's Monetary Situation - As of July 9, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse - repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury's cash account decreased. The Treasury plans to rebuild its cash reserve in a more moderate way [11] Inflation Expectations - In June, consumers' one - year inflation expectations decreased to 3%, while three - year and five - year inflation expectations remained stable at 3% and 2.6% respectively [17] US Treasury Yields - The "Big and Beautiful" Act may push up the ten - year US Treasury yield by 50 - 80 basis points, and the 10 - year term premium may rise above 1% [20] Financial Pressure Index - As of July 4, the US OFR financial pressure index increased compared to the previous week, with changes in its sub - indicators [29] Commercial Bank Loans - As of July 2, the weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, with different trends in various types of loans [32] Retail Sales - As of July 8, the US Redbook commercial retail sales weekly annual rate increased, indicating strong consumer spending [34] Mortgage Applications - As of July 9, the US 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates increased, and the MBA mortgage application activity index rose by 9.4% [37] Unemployment Data - As of the week ending July 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased to a two - month low, while the number of continued jobless claims increased to the highest level since the end of 2021 [40] International Bond Yield Differences - The differences in long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany (Japan) have changed, with the 10 - year yield difference between the US and Germany (Japan) showing an upward (downward) trend [43] Exchange Rates - The US dollar is strongly supported by economic data. The euro and the pound have depreciated against the US dollar due to factors such as trade tensions and weak economic performance [47] Volatility Index - The volatility of the US S&P 500 and the gold ETF index has increased [48] Gold Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased month - on - month. The total gold inventory of COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the gold basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [53][56][61] Silver Market - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased month - on - month. The total silver inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has increased. The domestic silver futures and spot prices are in a reasonable range, and the silver basis and the spread between near - and far - month contracts are also in a reasonable range [72][75][80] Precious Metal Price Ratios - The gold - to - silver ratio has been repaired recently. In the short - term, it may remain stable, but in the long - term, it may have an upward driving force. The gold - to - oil ratio and the gold - to - copper ratio are above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and short - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [89][92]

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Investment Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the gold investment industry, particularly focusing on gold ETFs and their performance in the current market environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Trends**: The speaker has shifted their investment style significantly over the years, with a current focus on gold, particularly gold ETFs, which now constitute over 90% of their portfolio [2]. 2. **Volatility and Inflation Hedge**: Gold is perceived as a less volatile asset compared to others, providing a hedge against inflation and helping to diversify investment portfolios [3][6]. 3. **Correlation with Risk Assets**: Historically, gold has shown a negative correlation with risk assets like the NASDAQ index, but recent trends indicate a divergence in this relationship, complicating the assessment of gold as a risk or safe-haven asset [4][5]. 4. **Economic Indicators**: The discussion highlights the importance of U.S. real interest rates and Federal Reserve actions in determining gold prices, with a focus on how these factors influence investor behavior [4][10]. 5. **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks, including those in Turkey and Poland, have increased their gold purchases significantly, indicating a shift in strategy away from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over U.S. debt risks [12][13]. 6. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The supply of gold is relatively stable, while demand is driven by various factors, including investment in gold bars, ETFs, industrial uses, and jewelry, particularly in Asia [20][21][22]. 7. **Market Behavior**: The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to speculative trading and macroeconomic news, with a noted impact from anticipated changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies [9][10][25]. 8. **Investment Recommendations**: For new investors, gold ETFs are recommended as a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to gold, with a focus on their liquidity and lower entry costs compared to physical gold [30][31][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Cultural Shifts**: There is a growing interest in gold among younger investors, driven by cultural factors and the appeal of gold jewelry, which has seen a resurgence in popularity [29]. - **Long-term Perspective**: The long-term view on gold remains positive, with its attributes as an inflation hedge and a stable asset becoming increasingly relevant in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar [16][17][25]. - **Regulatory Developments**: Recent regulatory changes in China encouraging insurance companies to invest in gold could further enhance market liquidity and support gold prices [26][27]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the gold investment landscape, highlighting both current trends and future outlooks.

Group 1 - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports has caused market volatility, pushing gold prices to a peak of $3,374 per ounce, but subsequent statements indicate a more open stance on trade negotiations, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] - As of June 30, China's gold reserves have increased for eight consecutive months, totaling 73.9 million ounces, while the London gold price has seen a 25.84% increase in the first half of the year, despite a decline from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce to around $3,300 [3] - The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 91:1, significantly deviating from the historical average of 40-70:1, suggesting potential opportunities for silver and other precious metals to catch up [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are expected to increase the yield on dollar-denominated assets, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, but concerns about inflation may enhance gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Gold prices are currently consolidating in the $3,300-$3,350 per ounce range, with a bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating potential upward movement if prices break through $3,350, targeting $3,400 and $3,450 subsequently [5] - Gold盛贵金属 has established a transparent trading ecosystem, with a unique transaction coding system for trades over 0.1 lots, allowing real-time verification, which enhances trust and security in trading [6] Group 3 - Gold盛贵金属 offers intelligent alert tools for short-term traders and dynamic leverage adjustments for long-term investors, facilitating asset appreciation during market fluctuations [8] - The company employs a bank-level fund isolation model for client funds, ensuring 100% compliance with independence standards and faster withdrawal times compared to industry norms [8] - Gold盛贵金属 has been recognized as the "Most Trusted Platform in Asia-Pacific" for six consecutive years, with a user recommendation rate of 98%, reflecting its strong reputation in the market [9]