资深央行记者认为，尽管最近的美债收益率波动并不意味着市场恐慌或危机前兆，但它反映出金融市场 已经发生了某种根本性转变。 近日，《华尔街日报》记者格雷格·伊普（Greg Ip）发布了一篇关于全球债券市场变化的深度报道—— 《债券市场对华盛顿说：我们要让你付出代价》。作为长期关注货币政策和金融市场的专业记者，伊普 在央行报道领域拥有丰富的经验和独到见解。 文章的核心观点是，疫情前那个储蓄过剩、资金追逐债券的时代已经结束。现在，各国政府必须为借贷 付出更高的代价，而巨额预算赤字也变得更加危险。伊普特别强调，虽然这是一个全球性趋势，但美国 的情况尤其值得关注，因为其年度赤字可能突破2万亿美元，并有望达到3万亿美元，同时美元储备货币 地位也面临潜在冲击。 债券收益率上升背后的真相——不是通胀恐慌，而是供给冲击 伊普指出，要理解当前的债券市场动荡，不能仅仅看单一债券的表现，而需要观察不同期限债券之间的 相互作用。 自4月2日以来，2年期美债收益率仅上升了10个基点，而10年期收益率上升了35个基点，30年期收益率 更是上升了5个基点。 这种差异化的表现说明了什么？伊普写道： 所以，投资者并不担心通胀或美联储；他们只是希望 ...

星展集团：新加坡核心通货膨胀将在今年剩余时间保持温和 美国银行：美国消费者信用卡支出在5月初出现放缓 澳新银行预测显示，截至2025年底，印度央行预计将会实施三次降息操作；鉴于目前印度的通胀压力并 不显著，而经济增长却显得疲软，这可能会推动印度央行持续采取宽松的货币政策以刺激经济。倘若 2025年第一季度的GDP数据未能达到预期，印度央行可能不得不下调本财年6.5%的经济增长预期。 美国银行指出，美国消费者信用卡支出从3月同比增长1.1%放缓至4月下半月的同比增长1%。5月前两 周，支出增长持平，没有同比增长；鉴于征收关税和相应的价格上涨导致经济不确定性依然很高，分析 师继续密切关注消费者的反应。 万神殿宏观经济公司认为，美国消费增长的减缓可能引发经济步入"停滞"阶段，尽管衰退或许可以避 免。企业界预期消费者需求将会减弱，并已经开始减少招聘人数。 预计裁员的步伐将加快，新的招聘活动也将减少，特别是在关税导致的价格上涨开始生效之后，消费者 支出从高于平均水平转向低于平均水平。 阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家认为，美国消费疲软是影响美国经济前景的主要风险，物价上涨可能 导致美联储在更长时间内维持较高利率；如果美国 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds is facing significant challenges as "bond vigilantes" question excessive government spending and inflation prospects, leading to higher borrowing costs for governments in uncertain environments [1][2] - The recent auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds resulted in a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking a notable increase from the pre-issue rate and reflecting a decline in demand as evidenced by a drop in the bid-to-cover ratio [1][2] - Similar trends are observed in Japan, where the average bid-to-cover ratio for government bond auctions has decreased, indicating weak demand, with the 20-year bond auction showing the lowest participation since 2012 [2][5] Group 2 - The concept of "term premium" is highlighted as a key factor driving bond sell-offs, with the current term premium for US 10-year Treasuries estimated at 0.79%, which is considered low compared to historical levels during similar economic conditions [3][4] - Investors are reassessing their strategies in light of recent developments, with some shifting away from long-term bond investments due to concerns over fiscal policies and credit ratings [3][4] - The participation rate of foreign investors in US 30-year bond auctions has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, reflecting growing apprehension regarding US fiscal policies [4][5] Group 3 - The Japanese bond market is experiencing similar pressures, with rising yields on long-term bonds as investors anticipate potential interest rate hikes and reduced bond purchases by the Bank of Japan [5] - Germany is positioned to benefit from the global bond repricing process, as its debt-to-GDP ratio remains below 100%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking safety amid rising yields elsewhere [5]

美债收益率欧洲早盘走低，延续周四跌势 金十数据5月16日讯，美债收益率在欧洲早盘下跌，延续周四的趋势，因货币市场在本周疲弱的CPI数 据出炉后继续押注美联储降息。法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中表示："市场继续消化美联储的 降息预期。"话虽如此，美债收益率曲线应会趋陡，因投资者消化期限溢价上升的影响，即更多收益率 投资者寻求持有长期美债，而非短期美债。"期限溢价可能会继续扩大，美联储将在今年晚些时候降 息。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that despite recent market gains and a strong dollar, continuing to chase these gains is no longer attractive due to weakening economic data and rising term premium risks, which may lead to market adjustments [1] - Citi's report highlights that the reduction in DOGE spending and declining tariff revenues could trigger a surge in term premium, potentially resulting in a "triple whammy" of falling U.S. stocks, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar [1][10] - The report indicates that the upcoming labor market report in May may start to reflect the negative impacts of recent policies, which could elevate expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 50 basis points back to 100 basis points [5] Group 2 - Citi emphasizes the need for investors to connect the policies of the Trump administration, noting that the DOGE plan aimed to cut costs while tariffs were intended to increase revenues, but the chaotic implementation has led to a potential increase in fiscal deficits [6] - The report expresses concern over the high level of U.S. term premium, with expectations that the 30-year swap spread will narrow further to -95 basis points later this year [6][10] - Historical data suggests that the state of rising term premium may persist, especially as budget issues come to the forefront, compounded by low foreign demand for U.S. debt, which could exacerbate fiscal risks [10] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the current dollar rebound presents an opportunity to sell dollars at better prices, with a belief that the dollar's weakness this year is cyclical rather than structural [13] - Analysts are particularly focused on the attractiveness of long positions in Swiss francs as a safe haven, while noting that the Swiss National Bank cannot intervene in tariff issues without being perceived as currency manipulation [16] - Investors are advised to closely monitor whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks the critical 5% level and whether the yield curve steepens, as these could signal increased term premium risks and potential adjustments in risk assets and a weakening dollar [18]

| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tariff policies has led to a divergence in the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds, with stocks recovering while bond yields continue to rise, indicating ongoing pressure on the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 0.1%, recovering from a previous decline of 17% due to tariff impacts [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.484%, higher than the pre-tariff announcement average of 4.156% and close to the peak level of 4.492% in April [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the bond market remains under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [4]. - The recent auction of 10-year Treasuries showed signs of stability, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, indicating healthy demand despite previous volatility [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressures - The U.S. Treasury is facing fiscal pressures, with warnings that extraordinary measures to maintain the debt ceiling may run out by August, potentially leading to a funding shortfall [6][7]. - The current statutory debt ceiling stands at $36.1 trillion, and analysts predict a funding shortfall could occur between August and October [7]. Group 4: Tariff and Inflation Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to affect investor confidence regarding inflation and interest rate forecasts, leading to higher yield demands [8]. - The 10-year Treasury's term premium is currently at 0.69%, close to the peak of 0.84% in April, reflecting ongoing risk perceptions [8]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to concerns about tariffs potentially driving inflation higher [9][10]. - Some analysts have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now predicting that the Fed may not begin cutting rates until December, rather than July [10].

周一，日本30年期国债收益率大幅攀升5个基点至2.955%，创下近25年来的最高水平，并逼近历史峰值。 自特朗普4月初升级关税威胁以来，日本债券市场持续遭受动荡。投资者面临着日益复杂的风险组合。 一方面，关税政策对经济构成威胁，削弱了日本央行近期加息的可能性，这使短期债券相对更具吸引力。另一方面，关税政策提高了通胀风险， 降低了超长期债券的投资价值。 日本10年期债券最近的销售录得自2021年以来最疲弱的需求。投资者对周二即将举行的30年期债券拍卖也保持谨慎态度。 "超长期债券市场正在发生不可逆转的结构性变化，30年期收益率不一定会在3%水平停止上涨，"野村证券执行利率策略师Mari Iwashita表示： "在日本央行减少国债购买、寿险公司需求下降等重大趋势转变中，特朗普的关税政策导致美国债券市场动荡，也扰乱了超长期债券的 供需平衡。" 日债市场陷入动荡，长期收益率飙升 5与12日周一，市场风险偏好明显上升。根据商务部的声明，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的 ...

Group 1: Euro and Currency Analysis - The euro is expected to appreciate in the long term, with analysts suggesting that this structural change may last longer than anticipated [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the euro to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [1] Group 2: Japanese Investment Trends - In April, Japanese pension funds purchased a record amount of foreign stocks, totaling 2.76 trillion yen (approximately 189 billion USD) [2] - Japanese investors net bought 2.12 trillion yen of U.S. stocks in March, marking the highest level since 2005 [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a core view that short-term U.S. Treasury yields will decline, but warns of potential upward pressure on yields if economic data does not support rate cut expectations [2] - Citigroup suggests that the recent rise in global short-term bond yields may be losing momentum, with several factors potentially hindering the bond market [2] Group 4: Gold Price Forecast - JPMorgan predicts that gold prices could reach 6,000 USD per ounce by 2029, representing an 80% increase from current levels of approximately 3,300 USD [3] - The forecast is driven by a combination of U.S. policy changes leading to asset reallocations towards gold and limited increases in gold supply [3] Group 5: India-Pakistan Market Dynamics - The recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is viewed positively, with expectations of a rebound in risk assets for both countries [3] - A technical analysis indicates that if the USD/INR exchange rate breaks below the 200-day moving average support level of approximately 85.03, it would signal a positive trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock and bond markets are showing a divergence in response to recent trade policy announcements, with the stock market recovering while the bond market remains cautious and uncertain [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded gains on 15 out of the last 22 trading days, returning to levels seen before the tariff announcements in April [2]. - This rebound occurred despite President Trump's retention of a 10% tariff on most countries, with limited progress in trade negotiations aside from agreements with the UK and meetings with Chinese officials [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased from a peak of 4.492% in April to 4.406% recently, but remains above the pre-tariff level of 4.156% [2][5]. - The persistent high yield indicates that the bond market is still processing uncertainties related to tariff policies, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investors are demanding higher yields due to inflation uncertainties stemming from fluctuating trade policies, leading to a current term premium of 0.69%, significantly higher than the March average of 0.37% [6][8]. - Concerns over increased bond supply due to federal budget deficits and criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are contributing to investor hesitance in purchasing long-term Treasuries [11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The unusual phenomenon of rising long-term yields alongside falling short-term yields, termed "steepening inversion," poses challenges for policymakers and increases consumer borrowing costs [12]. - The disconnect between long-term yields and short-term interest rate expectations may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to stimulate growth through rate cuts, with mortgage rates remaining high despite potential rate reductions [15].