Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate reflects the interaction between the Chinese economy and the global financial system, with the RMB appreciating due to a combination of factors including economic transformation and the weakening of the USD [1][3] - The RMB to USD exchange rate strengthened significantly, reaching a midpoint of 7.1620 on June 26, 2025, marking a new high since November 2024, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell from 102.09 to 95.92, indicating a complex underlying logic [1][3] - The appreciation of the RMB is occurring against the backdrop of China's high-quality development strategy, with notable achievements in manufacturing upgrades and a significant increase in new energy vehicle exports, which grew over 70% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, with market expectations for further rate cuts exceeding 80% as of June 2025 [3] - The acceleration of the global "de-dollarization" process is evident, with BRICS countries increasing the use of local currencies in trade, and central banks globally, including China, significantly increasing gold reserves [3][4] - China's economic fundamentals are robust, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a notable recovery in consumer markets, as evidenced by 274 million domestic tourist trips during the May Day holiday, generating 148.056 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4]

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年 6 月26日的黄金深入分析。 ·周四早盘金价在关键的3,225美元支撑位上方盘整之前的反弹。 ·美元在总统特朗普再次攻击美联储的信誉后，创下三年来的新低。 ·金价在21日均线和50日均线之间徘徊，日线相对强弱指数中性。 ·所有目光现在都集中在周四的中期美国数据和周五的美国PCE通胀数据上。 周四早盘，金价在周低点反弹的基础上挣扎，尽管美元（USD）在其主要货币对手面前徘徊在三年低点。 金价在鹰派美联储预期和美元疲软之间显得分裂 由于美国总统特朗普对美联储（Fed）信誉的最新攻击，美元延续了四天的下跌趋势。 《华尔街日报》（WSJ）早些时候报导，特朗普总统正在考虑在9月或10月选择并宣布美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的继任者。 市场密切关注美联储主席职位的潜在候选人名单，包括美联储理事凯文·沃什、国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前世界银行行长大卫·马尔帕斯和美联储 理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，以评估潜在的政策倾向。 尽管美元持续疲软，金价仍然难以延续反弹，因为伊朗与以色列的停火为市场提供了一些喘息空间。 此外，金价继续面临来自鲍威尔在为期两天的国会听证会上对7月美联储 ...

美联储负责监管的副主席鲍曼成为本轮鸽派转向的最新声音。她表示，美联储"很快"就应考虑降息，因 为她担心劳动力市场已显疲态，而近期关税对通胀的影响可能被夸大。这番表态，被市场解读为美联储 高层对就业风险的认知出现新拐点。 Vatee外汇提醒，在美联储鸽派基调逐步形成的同时，投资者也需警惕政策预期一旦"兑现"后的反向波 动。同时，若伊朗局势再起变化、美债收益率发生突变，美元也可能短线出现剧烈反复。总体而言，随 着数据疲软与政策转向预期交织，美元多头面临越来越复杂的博弈环境。 而就在上周五，美联储理事沃勒已率先释放类似信号，指出"7月会议降息值得考虑"。他一向被视为偏 鹰的委员，转向态度引发市场迅速定价：联邦基金利率期货目前预期今年将降息约58个基点，相比沃勒 发言前的46个基点，升幅显著，等于市场基本认定7月和11月各有一次降息，甚至为第三次降息预留空 间。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比也在发言中表示，特朗普政府重启的加征关税目前对经济影响"低于预 期"，为决策者在夏季降息扫清障碍。 6月24日（周一），美元指数回落至98.45，跌幅达0.32%，一举回吐上周美联储"鹰派按兵不动"决议后 的涨幅。此番调整的直接导火索，是 ...

Group 1: Emerging Market Bond Investment Outlook - The trend of a weakening US dollar is expected to positively impact emerging market local currency bonds, leading to a favorable outlook for these investments [1][3] - There is a shift in global investment from US dollar assets to emerging market assets, driven by the declining appeal of US Treasury bonds and the volatility in long-term bonds across the US, Japan, and Europe [1][3] - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to the potential for positive returns as the dollar depreciates against local currencies [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The influence of US tariff policies on emerging market bonds is considered limited, with most Asian corporate bonds being less exposed to large-scale exports to the US [4][5] - Market sentiment may cause temporary fluctuations in Asian corporate bonds, but the long-term impact of tariffs is not as significant as initially perceived [5] Group 3: Attractive Emerging Market Economies - Latin American, Southeast Asian, and Indian bonds are highlighted as promising investment categories within emerging markets [6][7] - Latin American bonds are particularly attractive due to high credit spreads and favorable economic growth prospects, with expectations of monetary easing in the region [6] - Indian bonds are gaining attention due to their inclusion in global bond indices and strong GDP growth, despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4: Southeast Asia Bond Market - Southeast Asian local currency and dollar-denominated bonds are viewed positively, supported by strong domestic consumption and manageable inflation [8] - Companies in sectors such as real estate, consumer goods, and renewable energy in Southeast Asia are identified as having solid fundamentals and low export dependency, making their bonds attractive [8] Group 5: China Bond Market Perspective - China's bond market is regarded positively despite lower yields, with expectations of continued low inflation and monetary easing [9][10] - Chinese local currency bonds are characterized by low volatility and stability, making them appealing as a long-term investment option [10] - The demand for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is expected to rise as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the lower volatility compared to other emerging market bonds [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the precious metals market, particularly gold, is influenced by multiple factors including a weakening dollar, changing risk sentiment, and developments in US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Gold Prices - The weakening of the dollar index has created favorable conditions for a rebound in gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [3] - Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has further exacerbated the dollar's weakness, leading investors to reassess the value of dollar-denominated assets and shift some funds towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] - Concerns about global economic growth, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical issues, have put additional pressure on the dollar, supporting the rise in gold prices [3] Group 2: Risk Sentiment and Gold Demand - The escalation of geopolitical risks has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being favored in the current environment due to ongoing conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia situation [4] - Developments in US-China trade relations significantly impact risk sentiment; easing tensions can lead to a shift towards riskier assets, while heightened trade friction tends to boost gold prices due to increased safe-haven demand [4] - Central banks around the world are increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a structural change in demand for safe-haven assets, which provides a stable foundation for the gold market and supports long-term price stability [4]

金十数据6月2日讯，摩根士丹利研究公司策略师Vishwanath Tirupattur和Serena Tang在报告中称，美元未 来12个月将持续疲软是摩根士丹利研究公司的一个关键主题。他们说："我们预计，由于美国利率和经 济增长与同行趋同，美元将继续走软。"外汇套期保值流动的增加导致风险溢价进一步上升，这将增加 美元的抛售压力。日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等其他避险货币预计将从中受益。 摩根士丹利：美元未来12个月将持续疲软 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential upward movement of copper futures prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and the weakening of the US dollar, raising questions about the sustainability of these trends in driving metal market prices higher [1] Group 1: Market Trends - There is a significant increase in demand for safe-haven assets, which is expected to support the upward trend in copper futures prices [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is also highlighted as a factor that could contribute to rising metal prices, including copper [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises the question of whether the current trends in safe-haven demand and dollar weakness can be sustained, which will be crucial for the future performance of the metal market [1]

对于近期行情涨涨跌跌，反反复复，多空转换频繁，很多投资朋友们都措手不及，或不知从何下手，一买进就跌，出场就涨，来来回回连续损单，其实这是 很多新手朋友们都会出现的情况，在这里告诉大家，做交易首先不要频繁去操作，其次要对行情需要有一个精准的把控，坚持自己的交易系统，当然这些对 一些新手朋友来说都是空谈，毕竟才入市并没有严格的交易计划，大多数都是追涨杀跌从而导致严重亏损，如果此时此刻看到文章的你也是这样的情况，那 么可以咨询本人沟通交流一下，可以帮你指出做单中所有的问题，这样可以让你在交易的过程中少走弯路。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周四（5月22日）现货黄金在触及近两周高位3345美元区域后出现技术性回撤，目前美盘时段围绕3300美元附近震荡整理。尽管美元指数 的温和反弹给金价带来一定下行压力，但市场对美联储进一步降息的预期以及对美国财政赤字不断恶化的担忧，为非收益性的黄金资产提供了重要支撑。当 前黄金市场环境，美元疲软、地缘政治风险和经济不确定性三大支撑因素短期内难以消退。特别是美国财政赤字货币化的长期趋势和中东局势的潜在恶化风 险，都可能成为推动金价进一步上涨的催化剂。不过也需警惕如果美国经济 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) equity strategy, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations and currency fluctuations. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Tariff Dynamics** - The US-China tariff agreement indicates a reduction in peak tariff pain, with the weighted average tariff rate on US imports expected to decrease from 24% to 15% post-agreement, compared to 2.4% in 2024. This tariff shock is anticipated to negatively impact global trade and the economy [2][2][2]. 2. **Market Performance and Valuation** - MSCI EM has increased by 4.4% since April 1, while the 2025 consensus EPS has declined by 1.4%, suggesting that markets have reacted mildly to the tariff news. The EM price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 18.2x, which is considered not cheap, with 2025-26 EPS growth forecasts of 15-17% facing downside risks [2][2][12]. 3. **Potential Capital Flows from the US to EM** - A hypothetical outflow of $1 trillion from the US into EM equities could result in $290 billion inflows for EMs. The absorption of this capital would take approximately 2.2 days in EM markets compared to 8.9 days in developed markets (DMs) [3][31][32]. 4. **Impact of USD Weakness on EM Equities** - A weaker USD generally has a negative impact on EM earnings per share (EPS), estimated at a 0.2-0.25% decline for every 1% depreciation. However, it tends to improve EM returns by about 3% for the same depreciation due to increased foreign equity inflows [4][4][38]. 5. **Regional Sensitivity to Currency Movements** - Taiwan, China, and India are expected to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while Japan is projected to benefit the least. Taiwan's foreign flows are particularly sensitive to currency fluctuations, often leading to market outperformance despite potential EPS hits [5][54][54]. 6. **Sector Sensitivity to USD Movements** - Real estate and transport sectors are likely to benefit the most from a weaker USD, while sectors like insurance, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals may experience a more significant negative impact [42][42][42]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Ratings** - The report includes a market rating distribution for EM/AxJ, with China and Indonesia rated overweight, while Taiwan and Saudi Arabia are rated underweight [7][7][7]. 2. **EPS Revisions** - Recent revisions indicate a downward trend in EPS for 2025 across various markets, with significant impacts noted in Japan, the USA, and Hong Kong [19][20][21]. 3. **Foreign Flows and Currency Performance** - The sensitivity of foreign flows to currency movements varies significantly across countries, with Taiwan showing the highest sensitivity and Japan the lowest [54][54][54]. 4. **Investment Recommendations** - The report suggests a rotation out of 'defensive and domestic' themes in favor of markets like Korea, Mexico, and Hong Kong, while India's attractiveness may diminish [2][2][2]. 5. **Long-term Outlook** - The long-term outlook for EM remains cautious, with potential risks from global economic conditions and tariff policies impacting growth forecasts [2][2][2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the EM and APAC equity markets.

Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]