Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of U.S. punitive tariffs on Chinese export enterprises, particularly in April 2025, highlighting significant declines in exports to the U.S. and the resulting strategies adopted by Chinese companies to cope with the new trade environment [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Exports**: - Following the implementation of U.S. tariffs in April 2025, there was a substantial drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with many companies halting shipments or returning goods [1][2][4]. - Specific industries such as zippers, power tools, and automotive parts were notably affected, with some companies reporting order reductions of up to 50% [2][4]. 2. **Response Strategies by Chinese Companies**: - Companies adopted various strategies, including stockpiling goods, adjusting export destinations, and relocating production overseas [1][3][19]. - High-value, low-cost products continued to be exported despite tariffs, as importers could still absorb the costs [8][19]. 3. **Inflationary Effects in the U.S.**: - The tariffs have significantly contributed to rising inflation in the U.S., with most imported products facing additional tariffs of 15%-20%, leading to increases in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) [10][27]. 4. **Market Diversification**: - Companies are gradually reducing reliance on the U.S. market, shifting focus to Europe and emerging markets, and adjusting product pricing accordingly [3][14][19]. 5. **E-commerce Resilience**: - The Chinese cross-border e-commerce sector has shown resilience, with online sales less affected by tariffs compared to offline channels, as companies utilize overseas warehouses to manage inventory [28][29]. 6. **Challenges in Supply Chain Transition**: - Transitioning supply chains to Southeast Asia presents challenges, including increased costs and production inefficiencies, as well as stricter origin certification requirements [15][16][45]. 7. **Future Trade Dynamics**: - There are indications of potential easing of tariffs, with discussions around possibly lowering average tariffs on Chinese imports [11]. - The overall economic outlook remains pessimistic, with expectations of negative impacts on both the U.S. and global economies due to the tariffs [27]. Additional Important Insights - **Order Trends**: Despite the challenges, about 61%-62% of surveyed companies reported stable or increasing orders from non-U.S. markets, indicating some resilience in global demand [26]. - **Emerging Market Opportunities**: There are growth opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in infrastructure-related sectors, as demand for construction equipment rises [22]. - **Logistics and Shipping**: The logistics sector faces significant risks due to halted trade routes, necessitating new solutions and adjustments in supply chain strategies [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese export industry in light of U.S. tariffs and the strategies being employed to navigate these challenges.

Group 1: Trade War Overview - The current US-China trade war is an escalation of the 2018 trade conflict, with the US imposing an average import tariff of 134.7% on Chinese goods, with some products facing tariffs as high as 245%[11][15]. - Historically, the US has initiated seven rounds of trade wars, with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act being a significant example that worsened the Great Depression[5][8]. - The trade war has led to increased volatility in global capital markets and a restructuring of the global trade system[7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade war is expected to impact China's GDP growth by approximately 0.9-1.6 percentage points under neutral scenarios, with potential declines of 2.0-2.6 percentage points in pessimistic scenarios[6][26]. - China's exports to the US are heavily reliant on specific sectors, with textiles and light industrial products being particularly vulnerable, where over 50% of certain products are exported to the US[27][28]. - The US trade deficit with China decreased from 2.0% of GDP to 1.0% from 2018 Q3 to 2024 Q3, while the deficit with other countries increased from 2.2% to 3.0%[14]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China has implemented countermeasures, including reciprocal tariffs and diversifying export markets to reduce reliance on the US, with exports to Vietnam increasing by 1.4% over the past five years[27][28]. - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological advancements to mitigate the impact of tariffs, emphasizing investment in high-tech sectors[6][26]. - Long-term strategies include reforming state-owned enterprises and enhancing social security to boost consumer spending and economic resilience[6][26].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in the US-China trade dynamics since the implementation of Trump's tariffs, with the share of US imports from China dropping from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, indicating a rapid "de-China-ization" trend [11][13][31] - Conversely, China's exports to the US have increased by 22% from 2017 to 2024, with the export value rising from 429.8 billion USD to 524.7 billion USD, showcasing a contrasting trend in trade statistics [11][12][31] - The report notes that the indirect value added from China in US imports has grown significantly, from 75.3 billion USD in 2017 to 148.9 billion USD in 2024, a 97.7% increase, indicating resilience in the value chain despite direct trade reductions [26][27][31] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the US's attempts to decouple from China have not significantly reduced the overall trade linkages, with the indirect trade connections through value chains largely compensating for the decline in direct trade [4][31][32] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply chains, particularly highlighting that labor-intensive products, which are most affected by tariffs, are the least likely to return to the US [5][37][41] - It emphasizes that the diversification of supply chains is becoming essential for US importers to mitigate tariff risks, particularly in labor-intensive industries, which are expected to accelerate their dispersal [5][48][50]

据央视新闻，4月下旬，有美国CNN记者采访义乌小商品城（600415）商户聂自勤，面对"对等关税"下 如何处理美国客户的退单，她坚定果决的回应在社交媒体上走红，也因此被网友称为"义乌最牛老板 娘"。 高峰期，聂自勤经营的万圣节礼品批发业务一年的规模可达6000万元，其中50%的采购客户来自美国。 "如果美国(客户)不要，那我就给南美客户。"聂自勤接受CNN记者采访当天，恰好有南美客户在店里采 购产品，一周时间过去了，之前给聂自勤下订单的美国客户并没有取消订单，而是选择了观望，等待转 机的到来。 4月底，《每日经济新闻》记者从相关进出口协会了解到，国内部分供应商已接到沃尔玛恢复供货的通 知，且关税成本由美国客户承担。聂自勤一边等美国客户的通知，一边也在想办法"主动出击"，通过开 拓多元市场和加大内销等渠道，来减轻因货物积压带来的影响。 2007年跟随父亲从河南来义乌创业，聂自勤在义乌一待就是18年，14平方米的店铺如今价值千万元。她 从做代工起家，高峰期一度拥有上千名员工。国际经贸的波动，在这一爿小小的批发店铺里，总能给她 带来最直接的影响。聂自勤坦言，市场会洗出去一些掉队的人，但这是义乌市场的常态，"在义乌没 ...

Core Insights - The report "2025 Non-US Market Trade Development Guide" by Topease Info-Tech focuses on strategies for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to cope with US tariff barriers and explore non-US markets [1][2]. Tariff Policy Impact and Solutions - In April 2025, the US significantly raised tariffs on Chinese goods through a "triple-layer" mechanism, leading to a "shock state" in China-US trade. Chinese enterprises can respond by optimizing tax burdens through re-export trade in the short term, expanding into five major non-US markets in the medium term, and restructuring value networks in the long term [1][13][15]. Re-export Trade Feasibility - A study identified the top 20 industries in China's exports to the US, revealing significant tax differences that make re-export trade feasible. Countries like Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico, and the UAE can leverage local policies and free trade zones to reduce tax burdens [1][17][31]. Development of Five Major Non-US Markets - Southeast Asia is emerging as a near-shore trade hub due to its geographical advantages and economic growth, focusing on upstream manufacturing materials, green technology, and Muslim consumer markets [2][39]. - Latin America is adopting a "resource-for-manufacturing" approach, enhancing cooperation in infrastructure and industrial clusters [2][41]. - The Middle East has a growing demand for new energy products amid energy transition, requiring solutions to certification barriers [2][45]. - Eastern Europe is becoming a new exit point for Chinese enterprises through the digital Silk Road, necessitating investments in digital infrastructure and cross-border e-commerce [2][39]. - Japan and South Korea represent high-end markets where Chinese enterprises need to innovate technologically and adapt culturally to elevate their brands [2][39]. Summary and Outlook - The US tariff barriers are reshaping the global trade landscape, prompting Chinese foreign trade enterprises to shift from passive responses to proactive strategies. By utilizing re-export trade and exploring non-US markets, companies can transform tariff challenges into opportunities for sustainable development [2][8].

大家好，欢迎来到本期的《逸语道破》，我们继续围绕中美贸易摩擦来讲。 "交易的艺术"？不过是慌不择路罢了【逸语… 沈逸老师 关注 进入哔哩哔哩，观看更高清 已静音开播 点击恢复音量 00:02 / 10:29 【文/ 逸语道破】 最近中美双方关于贸易摩擦正在逐渐进入一个新的阶段：一方面，从美国的角度来看，特朗普持续不断地发出错乱、混淆，甚至是虚假的信息，让各方继续 感觉到所谓交易的艺术背后，其实就是乱七八糟、蛮横无比，而中方这边有很明确的战略目标。 整场贸易战，就是美国单方面发动的一场霸凌措施，违背了国家之间正常的相处之道，也违反了全球多边贸易的基本游戏规则，所以中方必须要强势反制。 中方也认识得非常清楚，从美方选择设置的目标到使用的政策工具，都是错误的，对美国人自己是没有好处的。所以一旦坚决抵制把它打回去，在经济规律 的作用下，美方一定会付出更高的代价，它的失败是注定的。 在明确了这样的战略目标之后，中方要解决的是方式、方法、策略和道路问题，以尽可能小的代价加以有效地反制和应对。所以中方最近两天集中在做的一 件事情就是辟谣，商务部、外交部两天连着四五次辟谣。 面对美方这次的单边贸易霸凌，今天的中国形成了举国一 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the US-China trade tensions on global shipping and trade dynamics, particularly focusing on Southeast Asia and its role in transshipment trade to the US [1][2][4][5][17][25]. Key Points and Arguments Trade Dynamics and Impact - The US-China trade friction has led to order delays and cancellations, particularly affecting shipments to the US, with Southeast Asian order volumes dropping by 20%-30% [1][2]. - Following a 90-day grace period announced by the Trump administration, Southeast Asian shipping volumes have started to recover, although this grace period does not apply to Chinese exports to North America [1][2][4]. - The NRF predicts a 10% reduction in US port cargo volumes by June 2025, with further declines of 15%-20% expected in July [6]. Shipping and Regulatory Changes - The US is tightening regulations on transshipment trade, requiring detailed documentation and compliance with origin rules, which may lead companies to relocate production to Southeast Asia or Latin America [2][11][12]. - The 301 Action Plan will impose significant fees on Chinese vessels docking at US ports starting October 14, 2025, impacting Chinese shipping companies significantly [17]. Product Margin Sensitivity - Low-margin products such as retail, textiles, and toys are more adversely affected by the trade tensions, while high-margin e-commerce products continue to ship [8][19]. - Exporters are utilizing the 90-day window to export completed products through Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs [1][8]. Future Trends and Challenges - Southeast Asia is expected to see a recovery in orders starting from April 2025, leading to increased shipping rates due to limited vessel capacity [13]. - The region's logistics infrastructure is currently inadequate to fully replace China as a manufacturing hub, although it is becoming a significant outsourcing destination [20][34]. - The potential for compliance issues and penalties in transshipment trade poses risks for exporters, especially with the possibility of 100% inspections by US customs [9][31]. Market Sentiment and Strategic Adjustments - Companies are advised to develop strategies to adapt to the changing trade environment, including potential shifts in production and logistics to comply with new regulations [12][22]. - The demand for shipping services is expected to remain strong, but high inventory levels in the US may dampen immediate shipping needs [18]. Regional Trade Relationships - Southeast Asia is becoming a focal point for investment and trade as countries navigate the complexities of US-China relations, with a growing emphasis on infrastructure development [25][36]. - The dynamics of global trade are shifting, with countries weighing the benefits of entering the US market against the support offered by China in technology and finance [21]. Additional Important Insights - The shipping rates from Southeast Asia to the US are expected to rise due to increased demand and limited capacity, with current costs comparable to those from China [20]. - The overall trend indicates a gradual shift in manufacturing and shipping patterns, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key player in the global supply chain [34][36].

"抢转口"适度支撑二季度出口，但美国需求下滑叠加透支效应，三季度出口承压更显 著。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 自 2024 年 11 月特朗普胜选后，美国企业便开始了"抢进口" ： 24 年 12 月，美国进口增速升至 12.8% ； 2025 年 1-2 月，美国进口增速突 破了 20% ，创下近年来新高。 分商品看，除汽车、零部件和发动机外（可能与年初美国汽车零售增速转负，需求不足有关），美国消费品、资本品、中间品的进口增速均明显上 行。其中， 2025 年 1-2 月， 工业用品和材料 的进口增速超过了 60% ，消费品的进口增速达到了 26.3% 。 细分商品来看（ SITC 二级口径），美国"抢进口"力度最大的是 杂项制品 ，包括玩具、游戏及运动用品、文具、印刷品、工艺品、装饰品等劳动 密集型制成品和日常消费品， 2024 年 12 月 -2025 年 2 月杂项制品的进口增长了 185.9% ，占美国进口金额比例从去年同期的 5% 提高到了 11.9% ，进口额达 1056 亿美元。 杂项制品进口大幅走高，一方面与相关商品的对外依赖度较高有关，比如美国玩具进口额占全球总进口额的 30% ， ...

Group 1 - The foreign trade industry is currently experiencing one of its most chaotic periods due to fluctuating tariff policies and economic pressures [1][3][8] - The Trump administration has imposed tariffs as high as 245% on certain Chinese goods, causing significant anxiety among foreign trade workers [2][8] - Many foreign trade companies are struggling to maintain operations amidst rising costs and changing regulations, leading to innovative strategies to survive [3][12][27] Group 2 - Chinese factories are using platforms like TikTok to expose the significant markup on luxury goods produced in China, revealing that actual production costs are much lower than retail prices in the West [5][9][10] - The rising cost of living in the U.S. has led to public outrage as consumers face skyrocketing prices for basic goods, such as eggs priced at $11.99 for a dozen [6][12] - Some consumers are calling for direct purchasing options from factories to bypass middlemen, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [10][11] Group 3 - The foreign trade sector is adapting to the new tariff landscape by exploring alternative shipping methods and markets, including transshipment through other countries [30][34] - There is a growing trend of Chinese companies establishing factories in Southeast Asia to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with over 400 companies reportedly investing in Vietnam alone [38][39] - The industry is facing challenges with compliance and documentation for transshipment, as U.S. policies are tightening scrutiny on goods originating from China [35][36] Group 4 - Some companies are finding opportunities amidst the chaos, with certain businesses experiencing an increase in orders as competitors struggle to adapt [41][56] - Companies are adjusting their product lines to focus on in-demand items that are less affected by tariffs, demonstrating agility in response to market changes [44][46] - The overall sentiment in the industry is one of cautious optimism, with a recognition that adaptability and vigilance are key to navigating the current landscape [57]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-04-16 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口可能出现的变化及应对》 - 2025.04.07 宏观研究 抢出口叠加低基数效应推升出口超预期 核心观点 以美元计价，3 月出口增速保持较高韧性，好于预期和季节性水 平；从国别来看，我国对东盟、欧盟、美国的出口保持韧性是支撑出 口超预期的主要原因。我们理解，虽然 2 月和 3 月美国对我国加征 20%关税落地，但市场基于美国"对等关税"的不确定性，短期仍存在 "抢出口"行为，同时叠加我国出口商品相对价格优势，支撑我国出 口韧性。 站在当前时点，向后看：（1）展望 4 月出口，因所谓的"对等关 税"已经落地，显著超市场预期，全球贸易体系面临重构风险，"抢出 口"或已结束，我国出口或面临较为显著压力，4 月我国出口增速或 回落至-3%左右。（2）年内看，出口有望实现正增长。一是关注美国是 否基于自身经济 ...