证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 2026 年 02 月 24 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -2.00 2.05 21.98 沪深 300 -2.70 0.31 18.89 -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 上证指数 沪深300 叶彬 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523080001 yebin@hnchasing.com 相关报告 经济金融高频数据周报（02.24-02.27） 投资要点 全球经济及通胀：经济活跃度上行，通胀走低。 工业生产：主要开工率涨跌不一。 2026 年 2 月 13 日中国高炉当周开工率(247 家)为 80.15%，较上周上 涨 0.60 个百分点，螺纹钢主要钢厂开工率为 32.78%，较上周下降 1.96 个百分点。 消费：汽车销量走低。 必需品消费平稳，2026 年 2 月 9 日柯桥纺织价格指数为 105.32 点， 较前周上涨 0.24 点；可选品消费走低，2026 年 2 月 8 日中国乘用车 当周日均销量为 3.55 万辆，较上周减少 1.57 万辆。 投资：春 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda advocates for continued interest rate hikes and tighter fiscal policies due to favorable economic conditions, warning that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's large-scale spending plan could lead to overheating inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Japan's economy is experiencing robust growth and steady wage increases, prompting the need for the Bank of Japan to potentially raise interest rates approximately twice a year in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Kuroda emphasizes the current challenges of inflation and yen depreciation facing Japan [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Kuroda calls for a shift towards tighter fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that the Bank of Japan should gradually raise interest rates to neutral levels [1] - There is skepticism regarding the appropriateness of increased spending and tax cuts, as Kuroda warns that expansionary fiscal policies could exacerbate inflationary pressures and elevate bond yields [1]

微生活每日资讯3分钟 "碎片时间，阅读当下" NEWS ﹀ 今天是2月25日星期三 墨尔本天气：阴 气温：14-21摄氏度 澳元兑人民币汇率：1:4.87 1、 澳洲通胀居高不下 刚刚，澳洲最新通胀数据出炉，1月物价增速继续维持高位。 澳洲统计局（ABS）数据显示： 1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.8%，与此前水平持平，高于市场原先预期的3.7%。 从月度表现看，1月CPI环比上涨0.4%，较前一个月明显放缓。 但与此同时，澳洲央行更关注的核心通胀指标同比上涨3.4%，环比上涨0.3%。同样高于市场预期。 整体来看，通胀虽未继续加速，但下降速度依旧缓慢。 这组数据公布的背景，是澳央行本月刚刚加息，以应对去年底以来重新抬头的通胀压力。 由于通胀持续高于央行目标区间中值2.5%，加上就业市场依旧紧张， 市场对未来利率路径的预期再度偏向鹰派。 从结构上看，住房、食品等生活相关项目仍是推动价格上涨的主要因素。 此前统计局公布的数据也显示，住房成本仍是过去一年通胀的最大贡献来源。 对于澳洲央行而言，这意味着政策压力并未明显缓解。 一方面通胀仍高于目标，另一方面就业市场保持韧性，使工资和服务类价格存在持续上涨风险 ...

近期，美联储官员的表态再次让市场对"降息时间表"产生分歧。芝加哥联储主席指出，在看到通胀真正回落至 2% 之前，不宜贸然降息，而最新核心 PCE 同比仍在 3% 左右，显著高于目标水平。对于刚接触市场的投资者来说，这正是一次典型的外汇交易入门学习场景。 阿萨交易学社认为，宏观数据、货币政策预期与黄金价格之间的逻辑链条如何一步步传导，是理解当前行情的关键。 黄金本身不产生利息收益，因此利率环境对其定价影响巨大。阿萨交易学社分析师 Zero 指出，如果降息推迟，实际利率可能保持在较高水平，这会显著提 升持有黄金的机会成本，资金更倾向于流向高收益的债券或存款。 此外，高利率预期的维持会支撑美元指数走强，从计价货币的角度直接压制金价。这是 外汇交易入门学习 中常见的逻辑链条：利率维持高位往往利好美 元，而对黄金形成阶段性利空。 三、政策不确定性与避险情绪的对冲 除了通胀数据，关税政策带来的不确定性也让黄金处于"利空与利多并存"的复杂环境。一方面，高利率环境对黄金构成压力；另一方面，贸易政策的反复会 增加市场对经济前景的担忧，从而提升避险买盘的需求。 一、为什么 PCE 数据是汇市与金市的定价中枢？ 在 外汇交易入门学 ...

会议助理: 大家好，欢迎大家参加 AI 加通胀系列 MLCC 专家交，线上会议。目前所有参会人员均处 于经营状态，下面有请主讲老师开始发言，谢谢。 王心怡 华泰证券电子分析师: 那各位线上投资人，大家晚上好。欢迎大家来参加我们这个 AI 加通胀系列的 MACC 专场 的专家交流。我是华泰电子研究员王欣怡。那在会议开始前，其实我们也再重申一下对于 整个 MLC C 最新看到的一些变化吧。就确实是在春节期间，观测到包含村田和三星电机 在内的一些日韩大厂对于涨价的这个事情的口风，确实是发生了一些扭转然后另外就是渠 道现货价也在春节期间迎来了一些继续的上涨。那这个从海外的这些催化来看的话，其实 是进一步加深了大家对于台系，包括大陆的公司后续跟涨的一个预期的。 然后另外一个层面就是从这个 AI 相关，包含 AI 在内的吧，这些高端需求来看，确实是今 年全年还是非常的旺盛。那这个对于非 AI 的高容，以及说一些中低端产能的挤占，可能 也是短期大家比较关心的事情。所以我们今天也是特别邀请到了台系的被动元件大厂的资 深专家，然后来给我们做这样一个专场分享。专家您好，请问能听到吗？ 台系被动元件大厂资深专家: 能听到，很清楚。 ...

从货币政策层面来看，美联储官员的近期表态，为美元指数提供了一定支撑。波士顿联邦储备银行负责人柯林斯周二公开表示，当前阶段维持利率区间稳定 是较为合适的选择；里士满联邦储备银行负责人巴金也指出，现有货币政策能够较好应对经济前景面临的风险。多位美联储政策制定者传递出维持利率稳 定、暂缓调整政策的信号，整体偏向稳健，这类表态有助于稳定市场对美元的信心，在一定程度上限制了美元指数的下跌空间。 美元指数（DXY）作为衡量美元对一篮子六种主要国际货币比价的核心指标，近期在国际汇市呈现弱势整理态势。周三亚洲交易时段，该指数围绕 97.85 水 平窄幅波动，整体交投情绪偏向谨慎，市场参与者正等待关键信息指引，以判断美元指数后续运行方向。 当前美元指数的弱势表现，与多重外部因素存在直接关联。近期美国相关贸易政策调整带来的不确定性，持续影响市场对美元资产的配置偏好。政策层面的 频繁变动，使得市场对美元的稳定性预期有所下降，部分资金选择暂时观望，进而对美元形成阶段性抛售压力，这也是美元指数维持弱势的重要原因之一。 周三市场的核心关注点，集中在美联储官员施密德与穆萨勒姆的后续讲话。市场参与者希望通过两位官员的发言，获取更多关于货币政 ...

展望今日周三(2月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线支撑买盘，有所止跌运行，同时，美元指数早盘反弹 动力减缓，也对其产生一定支撑，故此，操作上，5日或10日均线支撑位，也仍是继续做多入场的位 置。 上交易日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，受美元走强以及获利了结的影响，再加上多位美联 储官员警告通胀依然过高，降息预期大幅降温，拖累因避险情绪升温推动的金价涨幅，多头动力减弱， 但近期走势模式为震荡上移，中东地缘政治紧张局势的反复升温，已成为近期黄金市场的重要推动力。 年内降息前景仍在，故此，行情遇阻回撤，在触及支撑位置也是入场做多的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5227.26美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内高点5249.43美元，便遇阻回撤并开 始跳水100多美金，之后止跌回升，陷入5160-5186美元区间震荡盘整，到美盘开盘，又再度跳水触及日 内低点5094.07美元，最后触底回升，但受阻于日内区间压力，最终收于5143.70美元，日振幅155.36美 元，收跌83.56美元，跌幅1.6%。 基本面上，昨日因古尔斯比：在有更多证据表明通胀正在回落之前不宜降息，对今年有望进一步降息持 乐观态度。柯林斯：很 ...

特朗普称："这是美国的黄金时代。"他随后批评拜登政府，称自己接手的是"一个深陷危机的国家"，但 强调其政府已"实现前所未有的变革"。 特朗普还夸赞其经济成就，重点强调通胀下降，并再次声称其前任拜登执政期间经历了"美国历史上最 严重的通胀"。 中新网2月25日电综合报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间2月24日发表国情咨文演讲。一开场，特朗普就宣 称美国已经"回来了"，并且"比以往任何时候都更强大、更繁荣、更富足、更强大"。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

马年春节过后，黄金市场呈现出显著的波动特征。2026年2月，国际金价一度突破5000美元/盎司大关，国内黄金饰品价格同步走高，部分品牌足金报价突 破1700元/克，达到前所未有的水平。然而，在春节休市期间（2月17日至24日），市场流动性下降，价格出现短期回调，国际金价一度回落至4900美元以 下，国内金饰价格也随之小幅下调。截至2026年2月24日，市场整体进入震荡整理阶段，投资者普遍持观望态度。 宏观经济与货币政策、地缘政治风险和季节性消费规律，是影响黄金走势的三大关键性因素。 宏观经济与货币政策：美联储的降息预期仍是主导金价的核心变量。若降息进程如期推进，美元趋于走弱，将对金价形成有力支撑；反之，若通胀数据反 弹导致货币政策转向鹰派，则可能抑制金价上行空间。当前全球经济复苏动能不足，债务压力持续累积，进一步强化了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 地缘政治风险：俄乌冲突、美伊关系紧张等地缘热点事件加剧全球不确定性，显著推升避险需求。与此同时，各国央行购金趋势不减，例如中国已连续14 个月增持黄金储备，为金价提供长期支撑。但需警惕地缘局势短期内缓和可能引发的价格回调。 季节性消费规律：春节后通常迎来黄金消费淡季， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].