金九银十

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超40款新车发布抢滩“金九”车企加速冲刺年度销量目标
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-09-29 04:32
中经记者夏治斌石英婧上海报道 "马上要过去的9月份,真的是太卷了,中国品牌发布了这么多的新车。对于想在9月份买车的用户来 说,选择这么多,他们就(会)更加纠结。"9月24日,在全新领克08EM-P上市发布会上,领克汽车销 售公司常务副总经理周 向《中国经营报》等媒体记者打趣道。 "金九银十"是车市全年冲量的关键节点,已成行业共识。而2025年的9月尤为特殊,超过30家品牌重兵 押注,40余款新车型密集登场,将这场旺季竞争推向了前所未有的高潮。 面对这个史无前例的"最忙九月",包括合资品牌、自主品牌、跨国品牌在内的诸多车企集体发力,在各 价格区间与产品配置上短兵相接,力求在激烈的市场竞争中占得一席之地。 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会委员颜景辉向记者分析道,汽车市场历来有两大核心促销手段:一是通过 改款、换代等新品发布刺激消费;二是价格营销,二者均为提升销量的传统有效策略。"当前9月超30款 新车密集上市,本质还是多重因素叠加下的行业规律性动作。" "从时间节点看,这是2025年成都国际车展后的常态化市场落地。车展作为产品集中亮相的窗口,会后 往往伴随量产车型的市场化投放,车企借此延续消费者对新品的关注度'保鲜期' ...
《特殊商品》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:45
Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soda ash market has a fundamental surplus problem. Although the inventory of manufacturers has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern, and the market may face further pressure without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to operate with a short - selling idea [1]. - The glass market has seen rumors about glass enterprises' meetings pushing up the market sentiment. The spot market transaction has become stronger before the festival, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply dilemma [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related prices and spreads -华北报价 rose from 1210 to 1220, an increase of 0.83%;华东报价 rose from 1290 to 1320, an increase of 2.33%;华中 and华南 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 12.14% [1]. Soda ash - related prices and spreads -华北,华东,华中, and西北 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 19.23% [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased from 87.29% to 85.53%, a decrease of 2.02%; the weekly soda ash output decreased from 76.11 tons to 74.57 tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real estate data - The new - construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - or short - side contradictions. Due to capital risk - aversion, the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, and the rubber price may fluctuate and consolidate. In the future, the supply may be affected by weather conditions such as typhoons and the possible occurrence of La Nina phenomenon. The demand faces export pressure, and the domestic sales pressure may increase. It is expected that the short - term rubber price will fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 to 16,500 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber decreased by 0.34%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of cup rubber increased by 0.20%, and the price of glue decreased by 0.90%. The prices of some raw materials in Hainan decreased [3]. Monthly spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 36.36%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25.00% [3]. Fundamental data - In July, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia increasing by 12.09%, and India decreasing by 2.17%. The production in China decreased slightly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, the domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the tire export quantity decreased by 5.46%. The total import quantity of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in August increased by 4.76% [3]. Inventory changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased by 3.07%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The log market is in a volatile pattern, with a relatively low trading volume. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the daily average shipment volume has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. Due to the poor willingness of buyers to take delivery and the suppression of the selling hedging disk on the market, there is a lack of strong upward momentum. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and spot prices - The prices of some log futures contracts fluctuated. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [4]. Cost: Import cost calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased slightly [4]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% [4]. Inventory: Main ports (weekly) - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 3.31%, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreasing [4]. Demand: Daily average outbound volume (weekly) - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5%, with the volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [4]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The supply is expected to reach a high level in October, and then narrow in November. The increase in the cost of the flat - dry season in the southwest region brings positive sentiment to the market. In the short - term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,000 and 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis of the main contract - The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the basis of (SI4210 benchmark) increased by 61.29% [5]. Monthly spreads - The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 100.00% [5]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The national and regional industrial silicon productions increased, with the national production increasing by 14.01%. The productions of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 3.56% [5]. Inventory changes - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the social inventory remained unchanged [5]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On the fundamental side, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream components is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that the polysilicon price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, the actual operating rate and production - reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The average prices of some polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 8.44% [6]. Futures prices and monthly spreads - The main contract price increased by 0.19%, and the spreads between some contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 130.00% [6]. Fundamental data (weekly) - The silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.32% [6]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume decreased by 9.63%, the export volume increased by 40.12%, and the net export volume increased by 94.25%. The silicon wafer production, import volume, export volume, and net export volume all increased [6]. Inventory changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% [6].
“银十”可期 甲醇中长线可布局多单
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-28 23:29
非伊方面,国际甲醇装置开工率已开始下降,但外盘市场库存依旧偏高,终端需求持续疲软。尽管醋 酸、MTBE等下游产品出口逐月增长,但其对甲醇需求的拉动作用有限,未能改善外盘价格疲弱态势。 近期,甲醇期货主力合约自低位出现反弹,但短期内港口库存高企仍对价格形成压制。 受港口市场疲弱影响,内地甲醇价格小幅下跌。与此同时,坑口煤价反弹,使得以完全成本计的煤制甲 醇利润收窄至400元/吨左右,但仍处于历史较高水平。目前,甲醇总检修规模约为950万吨/年,剔除 宁夏宝丰三期等上下游同步检修的产能后,非一体化装置检修量约为700万吨/年。由于山西华昱(120 万吨/年)检修未按计划执行,实际检修量较前期有所减少。在当前煤制甲醇利润高企的背景下,需关 注秋季后续检修对产能利用率提升的制约。 伊朗方面,Kimiya甲醇装置因技术故障降负荷运行,Bushehr装置维持停车状态,其他装置运行基本正 常。尽管伊朗甲醇日产量因部分装置故障已降至3.5万吨,但短期内仍足以维持对我国的发货量。在四 季度限气季来临之前,伊朗甲醇高供应态势将持续,但需谨防罐容紧张、卸货效率偏低及运力不足等因 素制约。 近期,伊朗Kimiya装置故障检修的消息再 ...
供应放量 北京新盘冲刺“金九银十”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-28 15:23
抢抓"金九"楼市窗口期,北京房企近期加快推盘节奏。北京商报记者根据北京市住建委公开信息统计, 9月以来,北京市住建委已核发25张预售许可证,涉及22个房地产项目,覆盖海淀、朝阳、通州、丰台 等10个区域,合计提供房源近6000套。 从供应节奏看,9月13日成为本月房源集中入市的重要时点。当天共有5个项目同步取得预售许可证,单 日释放房源1943套,占9月以来总供应量的超三成,形成阶段性供应小高峰。业内专家分析,2025年北 京"金九"楼市呈现"供应放量、成交回暖"的特点,主要得益于季节性销售窗口与政策支持、市场需求的 多重共振。 单盘去化率超50% 北京市住建委预售信息显示,截至9月27日,本月共发放25张预售许可证。其中,北京建工嘉棠澐玺 (备案名:嘉棠云玺苑)、中建·运河玖院(备案名:运佳苑<一期>)、兴创沐春墅(备案名:沐春墅 小区)、龙湖·宸翰(备案名:宸翰家园)、中海·瑞文里(备案名:瑞玉苑)、中建·臻源府(备案名: 臻源府)、紫京宸园(备案名:东晏和园)、国誉星城(备案名:星洵家园)、北京璞樾(备案名:璞 樾家园)9个项目为首次取证。 从开盘安排来看,北京建工嘉棠澐玺与中建·运河玖院目前登记状态为 ...
对话专家:近期焦煤市场变化及四季度观点
2025-09-28 14:57
对话专家:近期焦煤市场变化及四季度观点 20250928 摘要 从成材端来看,无论是现货还是期货,都能明显看到原料强于成材。从 6 月份 以来的一波反弹行情中,不管是螺纹钢还是热卷,都在七月底达到阶段性高点 后震荡下跌。本周螺纹钢和热卷大幅下跌至阶段性低点。这反映出"金九银 十"旺季不旺的问题。目前五大材产量处于近五年中位偏高水平,而表观需求 处于中位偏低水平。库存略偏低,但自 9 月份起已开始高于去年同期库存,这 表明今年总体库存压力和表需情况不及预期。 如果 10 月份因钢材高产量与弱 需求导致钢价进一步下跌,将使得钢厂亏损、利润压缩,从而打压原料价格, 包括铁矿石和煤炭都面临被拖累下行的压力。 为什么 10 月份通常被认为是旺季,但仍会出现价格下跌的情况? 焦煤期货市场提前回调,反映市场预期国庆节后补库需求减弱,价格可 能见顶回落,尽管现货市场偏强,焦化厂抛售盘面仍有利润空间。 短期内焦煤价格或已达阶段性高点,洗煤厂和贸易商已大量出货,担忧 下游补库需求走弱导致存货积压,大型供应链企业进行套保操作以防范 市场下跌风险。 钢材市场呈现原料强于成材的态势,螺纹钢和热卷价格大幅下跌,反映 "金九银十"旺季不旺 ...
铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:26
铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉(首席分析师/所长助理) 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 强弱分析:中性 精废价差趋势性回落 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00收敛明显 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 ...
锰硅产量抬升至较高水平 短期内预计盘面偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-28 07:45
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The manganese market is experiencing fluctuations in supply and demand, with a notable decrease in manganese ore shipments from Gabon and an increase in silicon-manganese inventory among independent producers, indicating potential challenges in the market dynamics [1][3]. Supply and Inventory - Gabon's manganese ore shipments fell to 47,700 tons, while Australian ore supply has increased, leading to a slight decrease in port manganese inventory to 4.27 million tons, down by 250,000 tons [1]. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese producers reached 233,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34,900 tons, marking a 17-month high. The Ningxia region saw the most significant increase, with inventory rising by 30,600 tons to 169,000 tons [1]. Profitability - Current spot profits for silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia are at -80 yuan/ton, while in Ningxia, they are at -190 yuan/ton. Hebei Steel Group set the final pricing for silicon-manganese at 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [1]. Demand and Market Dynamics - New Lake Futures noted a decrease in silicon-manganese operating rates and weekly production, but iron output is gradually increasing, aligning with seasonal demand expectations. However, the actual demand for silicon-manganese remains uncertain, with ongoing inventory accumulation and weak spot market transactions [3]. - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that iron output has risen above 241, and silicon-manganese production continues to increase without significant inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices have seen a slight uptick, and the market is advised to consider buying on dips due to a potential upward price correction [4].
22个项目集中取证,北京新盘供应放量冲刺“金九银十”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-28 05:33
Core Insights - The Beijing real estate market is experiencing a surge in supply and sales activity during the traditional peak season of September, driven by favorable seasonal conditions and supportive policies [1][8][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In September, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued 25 pre-sale permits for 22 real estate projects, providing nearly 6,000 housing units [1][7] - A significant supply peak occurred on September 13, with five projects obtaining pre-sale permits, releasing 1,943 units, which accounted for over 30% of the month's total supply [1][8] Project Performance - Several projects have shown strong sales performance, with the Beijing Construction Engineering's Jiatang Yunxi achieving a 95% sales rate on its opening day [3] - The Zhongjian Yunhe project, which adopted a "permit-to-sale" strategy, reported a 52.75% sales rate with an average price of approximately 61,500 yuan per square meter [4] Market Trends - The distribution of new projects is diverse, with Chaoyang District leading in the number of new projects and total housing supply, followed by Fengtai and Changping [7] - The market is characterized by a variety of product types, providing more choices for buyers, which is seen as a positive trend [5][12] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain its positive momentum, with analysts predicting an increase in transaction volumes in September and October due to the influx of new projects and improved market conditions [11][12] - The recent policy adjustments and a more lenient credit environment are believed to have stimulated reasonable housing demand, contributing to a favorable market outlook [12]
国内库存基本维持去化格局 原木期货呈震荡格局
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-28 02:11
格林大华期货 原木期货市场呈现震荡格局 新湖期货:原木11合约以低吸为主 9月26日盘中,原木期货主力合约震荡上行,最高上探至810.0元。截止收盘,原木主力合约报808.5元, 涨幅0.50%。 原木期货主力微涨0.50%,对于后市行情如何,相关机构该如何评价? 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 原木11合约以低吸为主 整体当前整体维持内外盘倒挂格局,外加外商报价重心上移后维持坚挺,成本端较强支撑;此外国内针 叶原木库存基本维持去化格局。后续逐渐将进入"金九银十"旺季博弈逻辑,且当前盘面估值相对较低, 建议11合约以低吸为主,博弈旺季预期,持续关注宏观政策面刺激以及旺季实际需求验证。此外,原木 盘面持仓量较小,关注资金动向。 格林大华期货:原木期货市场呈现震荡格局 近期原木期货市场呈现震荡格局。国际市场价格维持高位,而国内现货表现持续疲软,导致贸易商经营 压力增大,预计短期进口量将保持谨慎,国内供应端或延续偏紧态势。当前市场整体维持内外盘倒挂格 局,在外商报价重心上移并持续坚挺的支撑下,成本端呈现较强韧性;同时国内针叶原木库存延续去化 态势。随着"金九银十"传统旺季临近,市场博弈逻辑将逐步强化,当前盘面估值处于相对 ...
“金九”成色初显
HUAXI Securities· 2025-09-27 13:09
证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 27 日 [Table_Title] "金九"成色初显 [Table_Title2] able_Summary] 地产周速达 本周(9 月 19 日-25 日)楼市延续温和修复态势,成交量维持在近期高位,二手房表现持续优于新房。二 手房市场韧性凸显,15 城成交面积在高位微降至 218 万平方米(过去四周介于 186-221 万平),环比小幅回落 1%,但已连续六周实现同比正增长。相较之下,新房市场虽在月末冲量效应推动下环比增长 7%,成交 256 万 平方米(过去四周介于 206-251 万平),但其过去 16 周内仅在上周录得同比上涨,回暖势头尚不牢固,修复基 础相对薄弱。 各线城市成交热度分化是本周最核心的特征,一线城市与其他城市间的"温差"正在拉大。在政策托举 下,一线城市,特别是京沪两地,市场韧性凸显。相比之下,三线城市二手房、二三线城市新房同比则重回收 缩区间,反映出本轮复苏主要由核心城市驱动,市场信心的全面传导仍存在阻力。 分市场看,二手房市场,一线稳增,三线转弱。一线城市周成交环比与上周基本持平,同比则增长 18%, ...