Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply - side overall开工率环比回升，PDH装置开工率回升，天弘PDH装置存重启预期，山东主力PDH装置存检修计划，但烟台区域亦有装置供应临时放量，丙烯价格偏弱整理 [2] - Downstream开工涨跌分化，酚酮开工回升较快，下游采购积极性回落，择低刚需入市为主，需求阶段性小幅支撑，但韧性仍显不足，丙烯走势承压，后期关注金九银十主力下游的采购节奏 [2] - Cost - end原油走弱，且沙特CP下跌带动丙烷价格下行，丙烯成本支撑下移 [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][34] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder operating rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide operating rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [37][39][42] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]

report industry investment rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. core view of the report - For Shanghai Nickel 2509, it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term factors affecting the price [3][4]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it is expected to operate with a slight upward trend [5]. summary according to relevant catalogs nickel daily view - **fundamentals**: The external market rose and then fell, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The ore price was stable, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **basis**: The spot price was 123,800, and the basis was 1,460, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **inventory**: LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115), showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **main position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish outlook [4]. stainless steel daily view - **fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price decreased. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping cost decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line increased slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral outlook [5]. - **basis**: The average stainless steel price was 13,850, and the basis was 720, showing a bullish outlook [5]. - **inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422), showing a bearish outlook [5]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [5]. price overview - **nickel**: On August 13, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 122,340 (- 100), the LME nickel closed at 15,240 (- 120). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all increased to varying degrees [13]. - **stainless steel**: On August 13, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,130 (- 70). The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai decreased, while that in Foshan remained unchanged [13]. inventory situation - **nickel**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 13, LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115) [15][16]. - **stainless steel**: On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons. On August 13, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422) [20][21]. price of nickel ore and ferronickel - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on August 13 compared to August 12. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel increased by 1.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged [24]. stainless steel production cost - The traditional production cost was 12,946, the scrap steel production cost was 13,704, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,552 [26]. nickel import cost - The converted import price was 123,027 yuan per ton [29]. factors affecting prices - **bullish factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season and anti - involution policies [8]. - **bearish factors**: The domestic production continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there were no new demand growth points, the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries increased [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 02 inter - period reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - Supply - side overall start - up increased month - on - month, with expected reduction in propylene commodity sales volume and tightened market supply, supporting propylene prices. Downstream start - up showed mixed trends, with weak demand and limited support for propylene price increases. Cost support for propylene decreased due to expected OPEC+ production increase and falling propane prices [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][24] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [30][31][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit and start - up rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [37][38][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou's new housing policy aims to lower the barriers and costs for first-time and upgrading homebuyers, while enhancing the efficiency of housing fund usage to alleviate household financial pressure and stimulate housing consumption [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Details - The new policy allows for a minimum down payment of 15% for first or second homes purchased with housing fund loans [1]. - It optimizes the usage frequency of housing funds, allowing families to reduce the number of loans if their previous housing fund loan property has been sold [1]. - The policy also permits the withdrawal of housing funds to pay property management fees, with specific conditions on withdrawal frequency and amounts [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts suggest that the policy will significantly boost housing market sentiment and consumption willingness, especially with the upcoming traditional peak sales season in September and October [2][4]. - The policy is part of a broader trend where multiple cities are implementing similar measures to stimulate their housing markets, indicating a shift towards more flexible housing finance tools [3][7]. Group 3: Broader Context - The new policies in Suzhou align with national trends of easing housing market restrictions, with other cities like Beijing and Qionghai also adopting measures to stimulate demand [3][6]. - The overall market is expected to experience structural differentiation, with core cities likely stabilizing due to low interest rates and down payments, while non-core cities may still struggle with inventory [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of these policies will be tested during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is traditionally a peak time for housing sales [6]. - There is an expectation for further deepening of housing fund policies across various regions, alongside potential adjustments in supply-side measures to support quality projects and enterprises [7].

记者丨 唐韶葵 编辑丨黄剑 8月12日，苏州出台楼市新政。当日，苏州市住房公积金管理中心发布《关于进一步扩大住房 公积金使用范围的通知》， 明确使用住房公积金贷款购买家庭首套或第二套自住住房的，首 付款比例调整为不低于住房总价的15%。 同时， 优化公积金使用次数。 缴存人家庭购买首套或第二套自住住房申请住房公积金贷款 （不含"商转公"贷款），原住房公积金贷款购买的住房已出售的，可核减相应贷款次数。 此外， 苏州新政还支持提取住房公积金支付物业费。 缴存人本人及配偶在苏州范围内支付自 住住房物业管理费，可选择家庭任意一套住房申请提取住房公积金，只要申请前12个月无住房 公积金提取行为即可，一年可提取一次，合计提取额不超过实际支付的一年物业费用。个人住 房公积金账户须至少按最新缴存基数留存一个月的缴存额（不含新职工补贴）。 苏州这轮新政将于今年9月1日起正式执行，有效期2年。 同策研究院联席院长宋红卫指出，苏州此次新政，降低了刚需与改善群体的购房门槛和成本， 又通过拓宽公积金使用场景提升了资金效率，既减轻居民家庭支出压力，也有助于促进住房消 费与资源合理配置。 上海中原地产市场分析师卢文曦则认为，北京启动限购优 ...

乐有家研究中心的数据则显示，截至8月11日，8月以来深圳门店二手住宅看房成交率为4.22%，相较7 月上涨0.26个百分点，显示客户正加速"抄底"。据深圳贝壳研究院监测，8月上旬日均签约量较7月增长 6.4%，与去年同期相比增长32.5%。 不过，市场从业者的"体感"却有所不同。"定价权更为灵活的二手房更能反映楼市实际情况。"记者在深 圳罗湖和龙岗区采访时，多位资深二手房中介经理对记者表示，目前的二手房市场还是"以价换量"，除 了少数热门次新房小区、总价低的刚需盘以及优质学区房的成交量维持一定热度，其他房源的成交依旧 面临一定压力，前期的政策放松效果已经开始淡化，多数购房者仍在期待新的政策。 （原标题：实探深圳楼市丨二手房"以价换量"，业界期待政策放松节奏提速） 对于房地产市场来说，一线城市具有"风向标"意义。 近日，北京提出一系列放松楼市限购的举措，引发广泛关注。 数据显示，8月以来，深圳二手房市场开局势头较好。近期，记者走访了深圳多区房地产市场，从受访 情况来看，市场从业者的"体感"却有所不同，均希望出台更多的优化政策，以提振市场情绪。 楼市"体感"不一 尽管7月和8月是楼市传统的淡季，但进入8月以来，深 ...

不锈钢产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 13200 | -25 09-10月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -75 | 5 8414 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -17852 | -474 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 143674 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 103940 | 904 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13800 | 150 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 100 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 220 | 75 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.26 | -0.13 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) | 17215.27 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The SHFE nickel contract 2509 is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a long - term surplus pattern, with mixed signals from different indicators. The fundamental aspect is slightly bearish due to increased supply and long - term surplus, but the basis is bullish, and the inventory and主力持仓 are bearish while the price is above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel contract 2510 is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The fundamental situation is neutral, with the basis being bullish, the inventory (futures warehouse receipts) being bearish, and the price above the 20 - day moving average which is bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **基本面**: The external market rose significantly, and the price stood above the 20 - day moving average. There was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs last week, increasing supply. The mineral price was stable, the ferronickel price rose steadily, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery loading decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - **基差**: The spot price was 122,850, and the basis was 720, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **库存**: LME inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), and SHFE warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **主力持仓**: The net position of the main players was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price rose. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping freight decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose steadily, the cost line increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price was 13,812.5, and the basis was 587.5, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53), showing a bearish signal [6]. - **盘面**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a bullish signal [6]. **多空因素** - **利多因素**: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [9]. - **利空因素**: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel ore and ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [9]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the SHFE nickel main contract rose by 950 to 122,130, the LME nickel rose by 210 to 15,325, the stainless steel main contract rose by 240 to 13,225 [14]. - **Spot prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose by 900 to 122,850, 1 Jinchuan nickel rose by 900 to 123,950, 1 imported nickel rose by 950 to 122,100, and nickel beans rose by 950 to 124,200 [14]. **镍仓单、库存** - **上期所镍库存**: As of August 8, the total inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. Compared with the previous period, the total inventory increased by 444 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 753 tons [16]. - **8 - 11 inventory data**: LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (a decrease of 936), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 20,723 (an increase of 102), and the total inventory was 232,019 (a decrease of 834) [17]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - **8 - 8 inventory data**: Wuxi inventory was 61.62 tons, Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared with the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons [20]. - **8 - 11 inventory data**: Stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,036 (an increase of 53) [21]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿 prices**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red earth nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton. Shipping freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [24]. - **Ferronickel prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel rose by 0.5 to 919 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained at 3,400 yuan per ton [24]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost was 12,864, the scrap steel production cost was 13,588, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,461 [26]. **镍进口成本测算** - The imported price was converted to 123,814 yuan per ton [29].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply constraints and increased demand from power plants, with a notable week-on-week increase in daily coal consumption by 11% [4][11][39] - The report highlights that the coking coal prices are also anticipated to rise, driven by supply reductions and strong demand from steel mills, particularly in the context of pre-holiday stockpiling [24][39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed a general upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as the coal industry index rose by 3.65% during the week [5][39] - Major coal companies saw significant stock price increases, with Shaanxi Coal Industry leading at 9.90% [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are on the rise, with supply constraints due to extreme weather affecting production in key regions [10][11] - The report notes that the utilization rate of thermal coal mines is at 89.9%, indicating a slight decrease, and that imports are also declining due to price competitiveness [10][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are expected to continue increasing, supported by strong demand from steel production and low inventory levels [23][24] - The report mentions that the average operating rate of coking coal mines is at 85.0%, reflecting a decrease in production capacity [23][28] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at anchor in the Bohai Sea has significantly decreased, leading to an increase in shipping rates for coal [32] Industry News - The report discusses the resumption of premium coal exports by China Pingmei Shenma Group and the successful trial of a heavy-load railway by the National Energy Group [35][36]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围主导，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：据钢联统计，8 月 8 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦 炭日均产量 111.9 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.12 万吨，基本持平。由于周 内焦炭提涨落地，且原材料焦煤现货价格企稳，焦企利润迎来好转，最新 一期独立焦化厂吨焦盈利录得-16 元/吨，周环比增加 29 元/吨。需求 端，8 月 8 日当周，全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.32 万吨，周环比 小幅下降 0.39 万吨。钢厂盈利率继续 ...