| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4136 | 0.33 | 5.52 | 0.84 | | 深证综指 | 2746 | 1.2 | 10.1 | 2.21 | 拥抱 AI，抢跑复苏顺周期——2025Q4 被动和主动权益型公募 基金持股分析 ◼ 主动权益型基金行业配置特征：拥抱 AI，布局复苏。25Q4 主动权益型公 募基金增配科技制造（通信/汽车/机械）、周期（有色/化工/建材）、服务 消费（社服）及非银金融；减配传媒、计算机、军工、地产及医药等行业。 ◼ 风险提示：1）公募基金仅为市场资金的一部分，不具有全面代表性；2）基 金季报数据有时间滞后性；3）本文分析均以基金季报披露的前十大重仓股 为口径，与基金全部重仓股相比存在一定误差。 (联（联系人：林丽梅/郝丹阳/刘雅婧/冯彧/王胜) 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 ◼ 一、全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度 TACO ◼ 1 月 20 日，海外市场再度上演"股 ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演起"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲正汇 聚成一股时代洪流，宣告着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮的"超级周期"。 "这轮周期的持续强度、持续时间都可能远超我们想象。"近期，多位基金经理向券商中国记者表达了类 似的观点，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素 共振下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将 投资罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属与基础化工，不仅定位着这场全球商品盛 宴的历史坐标，更寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 全球大宗商品迎来第三轮"超级周期" 其四，长达十年的资本开支收缩期后的供给约束。上述基金经理指出，全球有色金属主要品种的资本开 支在2011年见顶后，步入了漫长的收缩期。勘探投入持续低迷，叠加全球矿山品位的自然下降，导致主 要金属品种的产出缺口日益明显。供给端的约束，是本轮周期最具刚性的一环。 "目前我们处于过往60年以来第三轮全球商品 ...

市场瞬息万变，唯有结合不同的市场环境，不断寻找价值低估资产，才能跟上时代。荣获第22届基金业 金牛奖"主动权益投资金牛基金公司奖"的华商基金，2026年开年全新力作——华商品质甄选混合基金 （A类：026177，C类：026178）将于1月23日结束募集。该产品拟由华商基金研究发展部总经理助理叶 峰管理，秉承"坚守价值、拥抱变化、动态平衡"的核心投资理念，致力于为持有人创造长期可持续的回 报。 叶峰 北京大学硕士 华商基金研究发展部总经理助理 华商核心引力混合基金经理 华商品质甄选混合拟任基金经理 华商品质甄选混合拟任基金经理叶峰，现任华商基金研究发展部总经理助理，拥有超8年证券从业经验 （其中3.5年证券投资经历）。叶峰擅长以"动态平衡思路"管理组合：当成长股相对便宜的时候，力求 把握优质成长股机遇；当价值股相对低廉时，关注可靠的价值机会。叶峰表示，一切选择的实质，都是 坚守基本面、坚守对价值的判断，并回归到估值。其次，对于即将或者正在发生积极变化的产业方向， 要保持更高的敏锐度和适当的包容心，拥抱变化。 谈及未来布局，叶峰表示，持续关注AI产业趋势下的细分结构机会，但认为AI的投资从简单题变成难 题，对细 ...

Group 1 - The scale of passive funds continues to rise while active funds decrease, with passive funds reaching 5.48 trillion and active funds dropping to 3.97 trillion [8][10] - The average position of various types of funds has decreased, with active equity funds averaging 87.8% [12] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds has increased, with the top 20, 50, and 100 stocks accounting for 34.12%, 48.24%, and 60.73% respectively [14] Group 2 - Active equity funds are focusing on cyclical sectors, AI, and non-bank financials, with significant increases in positions in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil & gas [3][36] - The active funds have increased their holdings in non-bank financials, particularly in the insurance sector, benefiting from the current interest rate environment [37] - The active funds have reduced their positions in TMT, healthcare, consumer services, and new energy sectors [21][27] Group 3 - Passive funds have seen a significant increase in holdings in communication, non-ferrous metals, and banks, while decreasing in electronics, power equipment, and biomedicine [44][45] - The proportion of holdings in the main board has increased for passive funds, while the shares in the ChiNext and STAR Market have decreased [40] - The relative over-allocation of passive funds compared to active funds has increased in sectors such as banking and media [45] Group 4 - The allocation of active funds to Hong Kong stocks has significantly decreased, with the total value of Hong Kong stocks held dropping from 19.26% to 16.23% of total holdings [48] - The number of Hong Kong stocks held by active funds has decreased from 376 to 361 [48] - The top holdings of active funds include Tencent, Alibaba, and SMIC, with notable changes in their respective share values [52]

Market Overview - A-shares saw all three major indices rise collectively, with the ChiNext Index leading with over 1% increase [1] - The trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 926 billion yuan from the previous day, marking the 14th consecutive day above 2.5 trillion yuan [1] Key Sectors Aerospace and Defense - The aerospace and defense sector experienced a strong rebound, with over 15.1 billion yuan in net inflows, leading all 31 Shenwan primary industries [1][6] - The military ETF, Huabao (512810), surged by 3.27%, driven by multiple favorable events in the large aircraft and commercial aerospace sectors [1][6] - Key stocks in the military sector, such as Triangle Defense and Steel Research, saw significant gains, with Triangle Defense hitting the daily limit up of 20% [6][7] Artificial Intelligence - The AI sector, particularly in computing power and applications, also saw a strong performance, with the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) rising by 3% and attracting a net subscription of 22 million units [1][10] - Major stocks in the AI space, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Tianfu Communication, reported substantial gains, reflecting the sector's growth potential [10][12] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is experiencing a price surge, with the Chemical ETF (516020) rising by 1.14%, marking four consecutive days of gains [13] - Key products like soda ash and titanium dioxide have seen price increases, indicating a potential turning point in profitability for the sector [15] Future Outlook - Financial analysts suggest that maintaining trading volumes above 2.5 trillion yuan could present numerous structural opportunities in the market [4] - The focus is expected to shift towards performance fundamentals, particularly as earnings disclosures approach [4] - Investment strategies should consider cyclical and technology sectors, with particular attention to industries such as power equipment, non-bank financials, electronics, and basic chemicals [4]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with major indices fluctuating and trading volume declining from high levels [1][8] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and also showing month-on-month growth [4][13] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][13] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to reduced domestic tax rebates [4][13] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, while JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4%, indicating robust external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][16] - ASEAN remains China's largest export destination [4][16] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a cooling phase after a period of heightened enthusiasm, with a rapid decline in trading volume and financing levels [8][18] - Factors supporting the market include favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB [8][18] - The spring rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, enhancing market risk appetite [8][18] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market due to the rapid accumulation of risks from strong momentum [8][18] - The market's trading heat is quickly diminishing, and short-term thematic trends may enter a consolidation phase [8][18] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [9][19] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [9][19] - Defensive dividend sectors may enter an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [10][20] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the credit of the dollar remains intact [10][20] - The trend of long-term capital inflow into the Chinese equity market is expected to strengthen due to regulatory policies promoting passive investment products [10][20] - The increase in equity market profitability is likely to encourage residents to allocate more of their excess deposits into the stock market [10][20] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, a short-term observation period is recommended, with attention to potential fund allocation in response to worsening market sentiment [22] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to continue driving performance [22] - The market should monitor the stabilization of AI applications and aerospace sectors for potential investment opportunities [22]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on January 22, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% to 26,750.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.85% to 5,795 points, and the National Enterprises Index up by 0.55% to 9,173.54 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba up 1.72%, Tencent Holdings up 0.33%, JD Group up 0.98%, and Xiaomi Group up 0.9% [1] - Chip stocks opened high, with Zhaoyi Innovation rising over 7% [1] - The innovative drug concept was active, with WuXi Biologics rising over 1% [1] - Gold stocks generally fell, with Shandong Gold down over 2% [1] - Longqi Technology's IPO on the Hong Kong stock market saw a nearly 13% increase on its first day [1] Company News - Shanghai Electric (02727.HK) expects a net profit of RMB 1.1 billion to RMB 1.32 billion for 2025, an increase of approximately 47% to 76% year-on-year [2] - Kingdee International (00268.HK) anticipates total revenue of approximately RMB 6.95 billion to RMB 7.05 billion for 2025, a year-on-year growth of about 11.1% to 12.7% [2] - Beijing Machinery Electric (00187.HK) expects a net loss of RMB 46 million to RMB 55.2 million for 2025, primarily due to intensified international trade frictions affecting its gas storage and transportation export business [2] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) reported a retail value growth of 17.8% for the three months ending December 31, 2025, with mainland China retail value increasing by 16.9% [2] - Zai Lab (09911.HK) anticipates a cumulative download of approximately 970 million for its social business by 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 5.9% [2] Strategic Developments - Ruiri Medical Technology (01696.HK) signed a letter of intent for cooperation with Stryker Medical to establish localized production in China [3] - Cathay Pacific (00293.HK) and Hong Kong Express expect to carry over 36 million passengers in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [4] - Shenyang Public Development (00747.HK) has initiated edge computing infrastructure and service business [5] - Flat Glass Group (06865.HK) plans to absorb and merge with Zhongda Quartz Development [6] Share Buybacks - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 7 million shares for HKD 248 million at prices between HKD 35.22 and HKD 35.48 [7] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) repurchased 500,000 shares for HKD 96.49 million at prices between HKD 191.1 and HKD 194.9 [8] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) repurchased 970,000 shares for HKD 61.39 million at prices between HKD 62.30 and HKD 63.95 [9] - Geely Automobile (00175.HK) repurchased 2.376 million shares for HKD 39.62 million at prices between HKD 16.62 and HKD 16.81 [10] Financial Instruments - Huaneng International Power (00902.HK) completed the issuance of RMB 2 billion medium-term notes [11] - CICC (03908.HK) plans to issue up to RMB 5 billion in bonds for technology innovation companies [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities noted that despite a general reduction in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations in overseas markets, domestic investors remain optimistic [13] - Orient Securities highlighted that recent U.S. measures against Venezuela and Greenland have increased geopolitical risks, supporting gold prices [14] - Zheshang Securities suggested that the humanoid robot sector has formed an ecological closed loop, recommending attention to component suppliers and undervalued transformation targets [14] - CITIC Securities indicated that new policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration will accelerate the promotion of surgical robots in China [14]

市场瞬息万变，唯有结合不同的市场环境，不断寻找价值低估资产，才能跟上时代。荣获第22届基金业 金牛奖"主动权益投资金牛基金公司奖"的华商基金，于2026年开年推出全新力作——华商品质甄选混合 基金（A类：026177，C类：026178）。该产品拟由华商基金研究发展部总经理助理叶峰管理，秉承"坚 守价值、拥抱变化、动态平衡"的核心投资理念，致力于为持有人创造长期可持续的回报。 叶峰 北京大学硕士 华商万众创新灵活配置混合基金经理 华商品质甄选混合拟任基金经理 华商品质甄选混合拟任基金经理叶峰，现任华商基金研究发展部总经理助理，拥有超8年证券从业经验 （其中3.5年证券投资经历）。叶峰擅长以"动态平衡思路"管理组合：当成长股相对便宜的时候，力求 把握优质成长股机遇；当价值股相对低廉时，关注可靠的价值机会。叶峰表示，一切选择的实质，都是 坚守基本面、坚守对价值的判断，并回归到估值。其次，对于即将或者正在发生积极变化的产业方向， 要保持更高的敏锐度和适当的包容心，拥抱变化。 谈及未来布局，叶峰表示，持续关注AI产业趋势下的细分结构机会，但认为AI的投资从简单题变成难 题，对细分领域和个股研究和定价的要求会更高，因此 ...

在成长风格的另一端，以有色为代表的周期风格正在成为基金经理的新宠。 近日，公募基金2025年四季报密集披露，券商中国记者注意到，在市场热点此起彼伏的同时，多位知名基金经 理却在去年四季度"不谋而合"地对有色板块进行了重点加仓，而深耕该领域的基金经理更是在季报中用仓位和 持股表达了自己的坚定看好。 多位基金经理认为，在宏观经济温和复苏、全球商品周期持续以及降息预期等多重因素共振下，有色板块仍具 备显著的吸引力，价格景气周期远未结束。 多位知名基金经理加仓有色 最新披露的2025年四季报显示，众多全行业配置的基金在去年四季度加仓以有色为代表的资源股，其中不乏多 位知名基金经理。 比如，高楠管理的永赢睿信混合在去年四季度新进重仓五矿资源、宏创控股，神爱前管理的平安兴奕成长新进 重仓了云铝股份，王崇管理的交银新兴产业和焦巍管理的银华富裕主题新进重仓了紫金矿业，此外，焦巍管理 的银华富饶精选三年持有更是在去年四季度同时新进重仓了紫金矿业、藏格矿业、洛阳钼业、云铝股份、西部 矿业、紫金黄金国际、江西铜业等多只有色股。 除了上述全行业配置的基金外，一些深耕资源股投资的基金经理，也在 去年 四季度继续用持仓表达了对有色 的看 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.85% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 16,458 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,196 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware industry chain showed strength, with GPU and server sectors leading the gains [1] - Active sectors included lithium mining, semiconductors, AI smartphones, rare earths, and humanoid robots [1] - Weaker sectors included coal, retail, liquor, banking, and electric power [1] ETF Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with ETFs such as the Jiashi Fund Integrated Circuit ETF, Guolianan Fund Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF, and Guotai Fund Integrated Circuit ETF rising by 4.79%, 4.31%, and 4.22% respectively [1] - The Xinchuang sector also performed well, with the E Fund Xinchuang ETF and GF Fund Xinchuang ETF increasing by 3.88% and 3.62% respectively [1] - Cyclical sectors experienced a pullback, with the coal ETF declining by 1.85%, and the food and beverage sector also saw declines, with the liquor ETF and food and beverage ETF falling by 1.67% and 1.38% respectively [1]