Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that dividend assets remain attractive for investors in the current market environment, particularly those with high dividend levels, stable ROE capabilities, and shock-absorbing properties [1] - Historical experience indicates that A-shares typically enter a dividend peak period from May to July, making high-dividend sectors the focus of capital allocation [1] - The A-share dividend index and low-volatility index hit year-to-date lows on April 7, 2023, but have since rebounded significantly, with increases of 8.27% and 12.18% respectively from April 8 to July 7 [1] Group 2 - From April 8, 2023, several A-share dividend-related stocks have seen significant gains, with some stocks like Gongchuang Lawn and Limin Co. rising over 110% [2] - In the Hong Kong market, high-dividend stocks have also performed well, with many stocks rising over 50% from April 10 to July 7, including Hai Feng International and China Hongqiao [2] - Analysts suggest that the previous broad logic of dividend investment needs to be reassessed, recommending a focus on "pro-cyclical" sectors that benefit from the current economic recovery, particularly in the consumer sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share dividend index and Hong Kong dividend assets have shown strong performance since April, indicating that high dividend levels, stable ROE capabilities, and defensive attributes remain attractive to investors in the current market environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - A-share dividend indices hit year-to-date lows on April 7, with the CSI Dividend Index at 5040.64 points and the CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index at 10348.71 points, followed by a rebound with gains of 8.27% and 12.18% respectively from April 8 to July 7 [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend Index also reached a new low on April 9, but subsequently rose, achieving a historical high on May 23, with a cumulative increase of 19.77% from April 10 to July 7 [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - In the A-share market, several dividend-related stocks have seen significant gains since April 8, with companies like Gongchuang Turf and Limin Co. rising over 110%, and others like Chao Hong Ji and Giant Network increasing by 94% [2] - In the Hong Kong market, high dividend stocks such as Hai Feng International and China Hongqiao have risen over 50% from April 10 to July 7 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook on Dividend Assets - Analysts suggest that the attractiveness of equity markets is gradually surpassing that of bond markets, and the value of dividend assets as a core allocation remains [3] - Dividend assets can be categorized into three types: resource-based, utility-based, and growth-oriented, with a recommendation to focus on cyclical sectors that benefit from economic recovery [3][4] - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of long-term improvements in bad debt cycles, with a recovery in valuations expected due to a decline in non-performing loan rates [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The classification of "pan-dividend" assets into resource-type, bond-type, and growth-type is emphasized, with different types performing best during various economic cycles [4] - Growth-type dividends are expected to perform well during the "market bottom to profit bottom" phase, driven by active expansion of interest margins, while resource-type and bond-type dividends excel during initial slowdowns [4]

Core Insights - The construction industry is officially entering a platform period, with infrastructure investment maintaining resilience but showing signs of decline in revenue among major state-owned enterprises [5][28][30] - The overall investment tone for infrastructure in the second half of 2025 will focus on stability, supported by proactive fiscal policies and accelerated government bond issuance [2][37] - Structural opportunities are emerging, particularly in manufacturing, power, water conservancy, and water transport sectors, driven by special government bonds [5][6] Industry Overview - The construction industry has seen a decline in total revenue for the first time in 2024, confirming a turning point for the industry [30] - The total revenue for the construction industry in 2024 was 86,962.78 billion, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 13.74% [30][32] - The share of real estate in GDP has been declining since its peak in 2021, while infrastructure investment has been rising but not enough to offset the decline in real estate [26][28] Investment Strategy - Long-term investment should focus on manufacturing-oriented companies like Honglu Steel Structure, while short-term strategies should prioritize high-dividend stocks and significant changes in individual companies [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in areas aligned with national strategic initiatives and safety capabilities [60] State-Owned Enterprises - There is a growing divergence among state-owned construction enterprises, with only a few, such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering, showing positive growth in Q1 2024 [7][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend stability and growth potential, such as China Chemical Engineering and China Communications Construction [7][8] Professional Engineering and International Opportunities - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from ongoing orders and the deepening of cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative [8] - Companies like China National Materials and China Steel International are highlighted for their low valuations and high dividend yields, indicating strong performance potential [8] Mergers and Acquisitions - The construction industry is moving towards maturity, necessitating mergers and acquisitions to find new growth points [10] - The report anticipates that future mergers will primarily come from smaller, weaker segments of the industry, such as design and decoration [10]

今天，A股板块快速轮动， 盘面呈现明显共振特点，一是股期共振，二是A股顺周期板块之间共振。 A股市场和商品市场紧密联动，成为今天盘面一大特点。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 创业板 | | --- | --- | | 3454.79 | 10412.63 2123.72 | | -2.96 -0.09% - - 63.66 -0.61% - - 24.20 -1.13% | | | 跌3284 涨1945 > | | 商品市场上， 多晶硅、玻璃期货领涨， 多晶硅涨停，玻璃涨超6%， 工业硅、硅铁等品种跟涨。A股市 场上，光伏、玻璃、钢铁等板块大涨。 重庆钢铁（601005）放量大涨，8分钟内拉升涨停。重庆钢铁股份（H股）涨幅更为明显，盘中一度涨 超130%，收盘涨幅为91.11%。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.09%，深证成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌1.13%， 全市场 成交额约1.41万亿元。 | 涨幅跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日増减仓 | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 6.48% | | | 工业硅2509 | 8210 | 4.79% | | 持仓量 | 氧化 ...

首席联合电话会 - 周期专场 20250618 摘要 房地产市场呈现优质供给驱动销售的特点，整体销售量受优质供给影响 显著。尽管房企促销手段多样，但难以有效提升非优质产品的销售，市 场企稳回升时间尚不明确。 短期内，房地产板块存在 7 月份潜在博弈机会，预计三季度或有房地产 政策出台，并可能与其他金融政策配合。推荐关注绿城中国、越秀地产、 建发和滨江等估值偏低的优质标的。 2025 年 5 月基建投资增速放缓，财政支出对基建支持有限，专项债发 行进度滞后但全年额度预计用完，特别国债开始发行。下半年专项债应 用将带来工作量提升。 顺周期标的如鸿路钢构、金工、中国巨石、雨虹防水和三棵树估值已达 安全水平，可左侧布局。央企如中国建筑、隧道股份、四川路桥及水泥 企业塔牌集团、海螺水泥、华新水泥可作为配置选择。 有色金属板块中，贵金属方面长期看好黄金，短期宏观风险或致金价震 荡，关注紫金矿业、湖南黄金及山东黄金。工业金属方面，铜铝价格震 荡，关注五矿资源及宏发股份的扩产速度。 Q&A 房地产市场的当前状况如何？未来的投资机会在哪里？ 从基本面来看，房地产市场仍然由供给驱动。我们在重庆、成都、深圳和广州 等城市的调研显示 ...

券商中国记者获悉，原民生证券策略首席分析师牟一凌今日（6月20日）已入职国金证券，拟任公司首席策 略官、常务副所长，以及策略组负责人。 牟一凌于2013年毕业参加工作，2015年开始进入证券行业，曾任职于原国泰君安证券、开源证券、民生证券等 机构研究所。近几年，牟一凌凭借在"旧能源"及实物资产的独到研究，迅速被市场所熟知，并于2024年上榜新 财富最佳分析师。 就在上周，市场上传出牟一凌从民生证券离职的消息，牟一凌本人也向券商中国记者确认已退工。6月13日上 午，牟一凌在朋友圈发布了民生证券策略团队的合影，并配文"独家记忆"。据悉，民生证券策略团队成员包括 纪博文、吴晓明、王况炜、方智勇、梅锴、沈心怡、季宏坤等。 过去几年，牟一凌凭借其兼具逻辑性与前瞻性的研究，尤其是在"周期研究"与其对实物资产的逻辑构建上的突 出表现，逐渐成为市场上关注度最高的券商策略分析师之一。 早在2020年6月，牟一凌在市场追捧核心资产的背景下发现了风格切换的迹象，提出了"顺周期"的概念，并不 断强调要"布局周期股时机已到"，此后周期大戏愈演愈烈，也验证了当时便是配置周期较好的时间窗口。 2021年1月，港股市场人气火爆，市场上甚至开 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment strategies and reflections of Li Bei, the head of Banxia Investment, focusing on her current investment portfolio and logic [1] Investment Strategy - Over 80% of the stock holdings are characterized by being cyclical, high-dividend, and low price-to-book ratio, with representative stocks including undervalued state-owned construction enterprises and global building materials leaders [1] - The investment portfolio will maintain a 10%-15% allocation to gold as a strategic component, considering the decline of the dollar system [1] Future Investment Approach - The company plans to continuously track foreign institutional investors' sentiment and position surveys, engaging in direct communication with foreign institutions to enhance understanding [1] - There will be an increase in stock selection standards, focusing on companies with alpha [1] - The company will adhere to its value framework and risk control system, and will not participate in small-cap stocks [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced fluctuations and upward trends in early June, with a focus on fundamental investment logic from June to August [1] - Institutions recommend focusing on traditional capacity reduction, the rise of new consumption, and sectors with high industry prosperity, including automotive, non-ferrous metals, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals [1][6] - Short-term fluctuations in Hong Kong stocks are expected, but they possess recovery potential in the medium to long term, making them worthy of investor attention [10] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, with a total of 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [2] - Foreign institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs express optimism about the asset allocation value in China, citing favorable economic growth expectations and relatively low asset valuations [4] Group 3 - Citic Securities emphasizes the importance of fundamental investment logic from June to August, highlighting the supply chain for computing power (AI servers, optical modules, switches, etc.) as a key focus area [5] - Dongwu Securities suggests that short-term thematic rotation may continue, with attention on new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, controllable nuclear fusion, AI edge devices, and commercial aerospace [7] - Huatai-PB Fund anticipates an increase in focus on consumption and cyclical sectors, driven by improved Q1 A-share company performance and potential recovery in foreign trade and economic expectations [8] - Huitianfu Fund indicates that the timing for technology growth investments is approaching, with the market sentiment having been released after prior adjustments, particularly in the AI industry chain [9]

Core Insights - The discussion emphasizes the transition from a growth-oriented economy to a stock economy, highlighting the importance of efficiency in business operations [2][6][9] - The author expresses a sense of urgency in writing the book "Efficiency is King," aiming to provide practical tools for entrepreneurs in the current economic climate [3][10] - The conversation outlines three strategic approaches for businesses: pro-cyclical, counter-cyclical, and anti-cyclical, suggesting that opportunities exist in all three [11][13] Group 1: Efficiency in Business - The author argues that in the stock economy, efficiency must take precedence over speed and scale, contrasting with the previous growth economy where rapid expansion was prioritized [8][9] - Companies that fail to focus on efficiency are likely to face significant risks, as evidenced by the collapse of previously successful firms [9][10] - The concept of "first core efficiency indicators" is introduced, which refers to identifying the largest expenditure in a company and optimizing it for better performance [15][16] Group 2: Strategic Approaches - The author discusses the importance of setting strategic efficiency indicators, suggesting methods such as self-comparison and benchmarking against peers [17][19] - The conversation highlights the significance of aligning business strategies with market realities, emphasizing the need for adaptability in a changing economic landscape [26][30] - The author advocates for a structured approach to strategic meetings, focusing on clear objectives and outcomes to enhance organizational efficiency [25][26] Group 3: Organizational Efficiency - The discussion includes recommendations for maintaining a healthy organizational structure, such as controlling the ratio of management to staff and minimizing hierarchical layers [32][34] - The author stresses the importance of effective recruitment, training, and performance evaluation to sustain organizational vitality [36][37] - The conversation concludes with a focus on the necessity of aligning individual aspirations with organizational goals to foster a cohesive work environment [42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of bond-type fund managers in enhancing the flexibility of product net values amid optimistic market sentiment and the growing attractiveness of equity assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in market volatility is encouraging more funds to enter the market, with the 10-year government bond yield returning to around 1.6%, leading to asset allocation concerns among institutional and individual investors [3]. - Since September of the previous year, there has been a significant increase in investors' risk appetite, and the involvement of stabilizing funds has contributed to reduced volatility in the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy of the fund emphasizes a contrarian approach and value investing, focusing on low drawdown and stable returns by integrating macroeconomic judgments with individual stock valuations and earnings [4]. - The current investment framework includes adjusting overall stock positions based on macroeconomic assessments, adjusting industry weights based on mid-level economic conditions, and selecting leading stocks for diversified holdings [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - The fund manager prefers to focus on industry selection rather than individual stock picking, maintaining a balanced industry allocation while being responsive to changes in industry conditions and valuation [8]. - The fund is particularly optimistic about sectors related to domestic consumption, healthcare, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical recovery, which are expected to see a resurgence in the latter half of the year [9]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The article highlights a strong performance in the new consumption sector, which is seen as a unique bright spot amid overall consumption recovery, driven by new product categories and companies with strong operational capabilities [10][11].