Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggest holding a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggest range trading; bearish on glass, recommend selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low prices, suggest holding small long positions cautiously without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, suggest taking profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized; neutral on nickel, suggest waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggest range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggest range trading [1][9][10][11][14][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, suggest range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommend a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy [1][19][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on PTA, suggest range trading; neutral on apples, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on jujubes, suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on corn, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy; bullish on soybean meal at low prices, suggest holding long positions; neutral on oils and fats, suggest a high - level adjustment strategy with a focus on the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1][38][40][42][44][46][52] Core Views - The positive results of the Sino - US talks and the positive stance of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggest that subsequent policies are worth looking forward to, and stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] - The Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment lead to a complex situation for government bonds, which are expected to fluctuate [5][6] - In the black building materials sector, the short - term supply shortage of coking coal and the low valuation of rebar support their prices, while the fundamentals of glass are deteriorating [7][8] - For non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply shortages, policy expectations, and seasonal changes affect the prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, with different trading strategies recommended for each [9][10][11][14][16][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors like cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies influence the prices of various products, and most are expected to fluctuate [19][20][21][22][24][25][27][28][29] - In the cotton and textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation and market sentiment affect the prices of cotton, PTA, apples, and jujubes, with different trends expected [34][35][36] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality affect the prices of pigs, eggs, corn, soybean meal, and oils and fats, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [38][40][42][44][46][52] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The Sino - US talks achieved positive results, and the 15th Five - Year Plan has a positive stance. Stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment, government bonds are expected to fluctuate [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and prices are on an upward trend. The short - term supply shortage supports the price [7] - **Rebar**: The price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has rebounded while the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamental situation is deteriorating, and it is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage and positive policy expectations support the price, but the high price suppresses demand. It is recommended to hold small long positions at low prices without chasing highs [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity and inventory situation are complex, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and interest rate cut expectations, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term and have support in the medium term. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 for the 01 contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract paying attention to the pressure at 2400 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation lead to an expected range - bound movement between 6300 - 6700 [23][24] - **Rubber**: The high raw material price suppresses demand, and it is expected to fluctuate around 15000 [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1700 [25][26] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is under pressure. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand improvement is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE and PP contracts should pay attention to the support at 7000 and 6600 respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand situation improves, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [34] - **PTA**: The oil price and supply - demand situation lead to a low - level range - bound movement between 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - **Apples**: The quality decline and cost increase support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [35] - **Jujubes**: The price is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price change after the new season's centralized listing [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 contract and wait and watch for the 01 contract [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop's listing pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The cost increase drives the price up, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the basis trading [44][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [46][47][52]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have regained upward momentum, driven by a slight retreat in the US dollar index and a resurgence in safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold futures closing at $4038.3 per ounce, up 0.94% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's Chair Powell indicated that further interest rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, leading to a cooling of market expectations for rate cuts, which has created some volatility in gold prices [1] - UBS Wealth Management's investment office stated that gold remains a strong diversification tool for investment portfolios and helps hedge against economic risks, supported by strong central bank buying and declining real interest rates, suggesting that gold prices will continue to find support [1]

新华财经北京10月31日电随着美联储降息靴子落地，国际金价在29日盘中冲高回落后，30日企稳回升。 整体看，金价短线调整势头虽有减缓迹象，但震荡反复行情仍然可能持续。 这一可以被视为"可能暂停降息"的信号放出之后，美联储12月再次降息的市场预期概率由91.6降至 67.8%，未来降息预期下降，美元指数盘中大幅上冲逼近100关口，从而令金价收复4000美元的努力受 阻，金价冲高回落。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） （文章来源：新华财经） 整体来看，未来降息预期虽有所下降，但是，特朗普政府对降息的执着以及鲍威尔临近卸任，中期随着 新主席更替，货币政策或将会有所改变，降息政策的执行或仍将是明年的市场主线。 基本面上分析，美联储在本月会议上如期降息25个基点，将利率下调至3.75%～4.00%的目标区间，这 是今年第二次放松货币政策。但是，美联储主席鲍威尔仍将此次降息定性为风险管理式降息。同时，由 于政府停摆切断经济数据来源，私营数据暂时无法替代官方数据，鲍威尔表示，在12月会议上进一步降 低政策利率并非板上钉钉。 技术上看，8月下旬，金价自3311美元低点快速拉涨超1000美元并最高冲击4380美元后 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent actions have led to a stronger dollar and adjustments in risk assets, with expectations of continued strength in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3][14]. - The market has overestimated the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with the Fed's stance indicating limited future easing as it approaches neutral interest rates [5][25]. - The anticipated decline in the 30-year Treasury bond is projected to continue, targeting the low point from September 30, 2024 [14][16]. Group 2: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market has seen a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, influenced by the Fed's stance and the conclusion of U.S.-China trade negotiations [4][18]. - Caution is advised for investors, with suggested stop-loss levels set at 3926 for the Shanghai Composite Index, as the dollar's strength may pressure bullish positions [4][22]. - The technology sector has shown high absorption rates, but investors are advised against chasing high-volatility stocks at elevated levels, favoring sectors like metals, coal, and renewable energy for potential gains [4][18]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a divergence in performance, with strong earnings driving individual stock performance amid overall market volatility [5][25]. - The market's reaction to the Fed's comments has led to a recalibration of expectations regarding December's interest rate decisions, with a significant portion of the market pricing in potential rate hikes [5][26]. - Earnings expectations for the third quarter are low, suggesting that any positive surprises could bolster stock performance [30]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market Trends - The onshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, reflecting the Fed's hawkish stance and the resolution of U.S.-China trade discussions [29]. - The dollar is expected to maintain its strength, with projections indicating a continued upward trend against other currencies, including the euro [29][31]. - The RMB is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, but it is expected to outperform many other currencies due to supportive domestic policies [29]. Group 5: Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market has seen a decline, with the Wenhua Commodity Index down by 0.66%, influenced by the Fed's actions and a strengthening dollar [32]. - Overall commodity prices are expected to experience volatility, with specific opportunities identified in copper and oil trading strategies [32][34].

Group 1 - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan has been fully allocated, supporting over 2,200 projects and expected to drive total project investment of approximately 7.08 trillion yuan [1] - The China Development Bank, Export-Import Bank, and Agricultural Development Bank have supported 1,054, over 360, and 881 projects respectively, with expected investments of 3.85 trillion yuan, over 1.3 trillion yuan, and over 1.93 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,426 billion yuan, with a net injection of 1,301 billion yuan [3] - The operation rate remained stable at 1.40% [3] Group 3 - The Luoyang Industrial Holding Group plans to issue 4 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with 2 billion yuan allocated for debt repayment and 2 billion yuan for working capital [4] - The Henan Daily Press Group intends to issue 500 million yuan in perpetual medium-term notes, with a subscription range of 2.0% to 3.0% [4] - The Zhengzhou High-tech Investment Holding Group is set to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with a credit rating of AA+ [5][6] Group 4 - The New Xiang State-owned Capital Operation Group has completed the issuance of 530 million yuan in corporate bonds at an interest rate of 2.29% [10] - The Jiyuan Investment Group has issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes at an interest rate of 2.97% [11] Group 5 - The first housing rental CMBS in Hunan Province and the first nationwide three-label housing rental CMBS has been successfully issued, with a scale of 226 million yuan and a credit rating of AA+sf [13] Group 6 - The Guangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau has selected Guangxi National Control Capital Operation Group for a site inspection as a bond issuer [14] - The North Enterprises Group has provided collateral worth 3.64 billion yuan for financing needs [14] Group 7 - Shanghai Chuangxing Resources' chairman has been arrested on criminal charges, although the matter is unrelated to the company [15] - Guizhou Economic Development Zone's subsidiary has been added to the list of executors with a subject of 10.5972 million yuan [16] Group 8 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has terminated the review of Weifang Investment Group's 943 million yuan private bond project [17] - Anhui Construction Investment Group has canceled the issuance of 500 million yuan in medium-term notes due to market volatility [17] Group 9 - A report indicates that multiple city investment platforms have been reduced by funds, particularly in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Anhui [18] - The infrastructure investment and financing sector has seen significant reductions, with 46 instances reported [18] Group 10 - The possibility of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter is considered low, with recommendations to maintain a bullish outlook in the bond market [19]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant increase in global gold demand, particularly driven by investment, following the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][6]. Group 1: Global Gold Demand Trends - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons, with a total value of $146 billion, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [3]. - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of total gold demand [3]. - Gold ETFs saw substantial inflows, with holdings increasing by 222 tons in Q3, translating to $26 billion in investment [3]. Group 2: China Market Performance - In contrast, China's gold demand showed a decline, with retail investment and consumption dropping to 152 tons in Q3, a 7% year-on-year decrease and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [6]. - Gold ETF demand in China turned negative, with outflows of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million) in Q3, ending a three-quarter inflow trend [6]. - Despite the challenges, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs in China grew by 11% to 168.8 billion RMB (about $23.7 billion) due to rising gold prices [6]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cumulatively, central banks bought 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025 [7].

Economic Data Summary - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1] - In September, industrial output increased by 6.5% year-on-year, while retail sales rose by 3% [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but grew by 3% when excluding real estate development [1] - The average disposable income per capita for residents was 32,509 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [1] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the highest since January, but below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also lower than anticipated [1] - Service sector inflation reached its weakest level since November 2021 [1] - The market has largely priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year [1] Market Performance - The S&P Global reported that the U.S. manufacturing PMI for October was 52.2, and the services PMI was 55.2, both showing improvement from September [1] - The composite PMI for October was 54.8, indicating a recovery in economic activity [1] - New orders composite index reached its highest level of the year, with manufacturing orders showing the strongest growth since February of the previous year [1] APEC Meeting and U.S.-China Relations - Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the APEC informal leaders' meeting in South Korea from October 30 to November 1 [2] - There is ongoing communication regarding a potential meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents during the APEC conference [2] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks focused on key issues such as maritime logistics, tariffs, and agricultural trade, resulting in a basic consensus on addressing mutual concerns [3] Stock Market Overview - The A-share market showed a rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.05%, the largest increase among major indices [7] - The overall market sentiment improved due to expectations of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [7] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.92%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 2.31%, reflecting a positive response to weaker inflation data [8] Bond Market Insights - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with credit bonds generally declining and government bonds showing slight increases [10][12] - The U.S. Treasury yields saw minor movements, influenced by mixed economic signals and trade tensions [12] - The domestic bond market is expected to remain volatile due to ongoing economic uncertainties and policy adjustments [10]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion [1] - Central banks accelerated gold purchases, totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-over-year rise [1] - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand was 152 tons in Q3 2025, a 7% year-over-year decline, but the monetary value surged by 29% to approximately $16.9 billion [1] - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation [1] Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached 1,313 tons, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [1] - The total monetary value of this demand was $146 billion [1] Central Bank Purchases - Central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold in Q3 2025, which is a 28% increase from the previous quarter and a 10% increase year-over-year [1] - The total net gold purchases by central banks for the first three quarters of 2025 amounted to 634 tons, which, while lower than the exceptionally high levels of the past three years, remains significantly above the average levels prior to 2022 [1] China's Gold Market - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3 2025, reflecting a 7% decline compared to the previous year [1] - However, the monetary value of this demand was approximately 1,204 billion RMB (around $16.9 billion), representing a 29% year-over-year increase and setting a record for Q3 [1] Market Outlook - The gold market outlook is optimistic, driven by a weakening dollar, general expectations of interest rate cuts, and the presence of stagflation risks, which may further support gold investment demand [1] - Gold prices have been consistently reaching new records this year, indicating potential for further upward movement in the current market environment [1] - Research indicates that the market is not yet saturated, and the strategic value of allocating to gold remains solid [1]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $146 billion [1] - Central banks accelerated gold purchases, totaling 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-over-year rise [1] - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand reached 152 tons in Q3 2025, a 7% year-over-year decline, but the monetary value surged by 29% to approximately $16.9 billion [1] - The outlook for the gold market remains optimistic due to a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation, which may further support gold investment demand [1] Group 1 - Global gold demand in Q3 2025 reached 1,313 tons, marking the highest quarterly demand on record [1] - Central banks' net gold purchases totaled 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous quarters [1] - China's retail gold investment and consumption demand, while down in volume, saw a substantial increase in monetary value, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - The continuous rise in gold prices suggests that there is still potential for further increases in the market [1] - The strategic value of gold allocation remains solid, indicating that the market has not yet reached saturation [1] - The combination of macroeconomic factors is likely to sustain the demand for gold in the near future [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of limited Treasury bond purchases, officially ending years of quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is expected to stabilize bond holdings and slow monetary market tightening [2] - The plan includes maintaining a maximum of $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) per month without reinvestment, with all MBS maturity funds reinvested into Treasury bonds starting December 1 [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly cooled due to the Fed's hawkish stance, as indicated by comments from Fed Chair Powell [2] Group 2 - International silver is currently trading below $47.52, with a slight decline of 0.33% to $47.36 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the silver market shows strong fundamentals and potential for future price increases, with a target of $49.5 expected this week [2] - The previous strategy of buying silver around $46 remains unchanged, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [2]