Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to gold prices rising above $4,100 per ounce, driven by ongoing challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing demand for gold as a safe asset amid global geopolitical instability [1] Group 1 - The long-term upward trend in gold prices remains intact, supported by multiple issues facing the U.S. government and persistent global geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in the market during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] Group 2 - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are highlighted as potential investment options [1] - Gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain are also recommended for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices remained stable, with the market assessing the Federal Reserve's policy signals and adjusting expectations for potential interest rate cuts by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of 0200 GMT, spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,154.09 per ounce, while December gold futures fell by 0.3% to $4,151.20 per ounce [3]. - Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilverCentral, indicated that the unclear direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has led to a consolidation phase for gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer signals [3]. - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the timing and extent of interest rate cuts, prompting some funds to shift towards interest rate-related derivatives to manage volatility from policy uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Some Federal Reserve officials have expressed dovish sentiments, with New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller noting that a slowing labor market could pressure Treasury yields, suggesting a potential policy adjustment in December [3]. - Conversely, several regional Fed presidents advocate for delaying any easing of policies until inflation data stabilizes closer to the 2% target [3]. - The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates a high probability for interest rate cuts in December, as lower interest rates typically enhance gold's attractiveness [3]. Group 3: Employment and Consumer Confidence - Recent employment data showed a slight decline in initial jobless claims, but the job market still does not fully meet job-seeker demand [4]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. fell in November due to uncertainties regarding employment and household financial conditions [4]. Group 4: Other Precious Metals - In the precious metals market, spot silver decreased by 0.9% to $52.89 per ounce, while platinum rose by 1.4% to $1,611.04 per ounce; palladium fell by 0.9% to $1,409.87 per ounce [4].

Report Overview - Report Date: November 27, 2025 - Report Issuer: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts is rising [2]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment [2]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2]. - Zinc: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend [2]. - Lead: Lacking driving forces, the price is fluctuating [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: It shows a slightly stronger shock trend, while alumina continues to face pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, and there are short - term disturbances from macro and news factors. Stainless steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Gold 2512 and Shanghai Gold 2512 were 4196.10 and 943.08 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74% and - 0.03%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 20,269 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 8,514. The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5 to 1,045.43 [4]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the overall consumer spending in the US has further declined in recent weeks. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000, the lowest since mid - April. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%, exceeding expectations [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of COMEX Silver 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 were 53.760 and 12,220 respectively, with daily increases of 3.88% and 0.76%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 decreased by 17,011 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 10,273. The position of SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15,582.33 [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [6] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 86,590, with a daily decrease of 0.01%, and the night - session closing price was 87,090, with an increase of 0.58%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index increased by 19,199 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 6,653. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 1,140 to 39,825 [8]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has changed little during the government shutdown period. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in October decreased by 5.24% month - on - month but increased by 6.08% year - on - year. The global refined copper market had a deficit of 51,000 tons in September [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,355, with a daily decrease of 0.02%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract increased by 11,308 compared with the previous day, and the position increased by 1,139. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 2,199 to 71,620 [11]. - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased to 216,000. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [13] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,065, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 309 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 3,433. The inventory of Shanghai Lead remained unchanged at 28,654 [14]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, including US economic data and Fed's Beige Book information [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 295,880, with a daily increase of 0.20%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract increased by 18,922 compared with the previous day, and the position decreased by 58. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 22 to 5,884 [17]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, including global economic and industry - related news [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,455, with a daily decrease of 10. The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,720, with a daily decrease of 7. The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,695, with a daily decrease of 10 [21]. - **News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows economic conditions during the government shutdown. US - Russia peace talks are in progress [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum: 1; Alumina: - 1; Aluminum Alloy: 1 [23] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,260, with an increase of 1,100 compared with the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,455, with an increase of 50 compared with the previous day [24]. - **News**: Due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over an area of more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mine. The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel products [24][27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel: - 1; Stainless Steel: 0 [28]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market continued its strong performance with all three major indices achieving four consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500 index successfully breaking through the 6800-point mark [1] - As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 47,427.12 points, up 314.67 points (0.67%), while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 189.10 points (0.82%) to 23,214.69 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 46.73 points (0.69%) to 6,812.61 points, all reaching recent rebound highs [1] Core Drivers - The primary driver behind the sustained rise in U.S. stocks is the significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with several Fed officials signaling a dovish stance [2] - The labor market data supports this, as initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below the market expectation of 225,000, indicating a cooling labor market without excessive recession fears, thus providing data support for a potential rate cut [2] - Additionally, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped below 4%, reducing the alternative effect of equity assets and encouraging capital to flow back into the stock market [2] Sector Performance - The collaboration between technology and consumer sectors has become a crucial pillar for the market, with tech giants like Google and Microsoft showing strong performance [4] - Google's stock surged over 6% due to positive market reception of its new AI model, Gemini3, which boosted the AI industry chain [4] - The airline sector saw a daily increase of over 3%, and retail stocks also rose, reflecting a rotation among multiple sectors driven by holiday season consumption expectations [4] Market Outlook - Some analysts warn of potential further market corrections, suggesting the need for more risk protection and a reassessment of AI sector valuations [4] - However, optimistic institutions believe that the dual drivers of interest rate cuts and strong holiday consumption will continue to support the market, especially after the S&P 500 index recovered its 50-day moving average, indicating a positive technical outlook [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight increase with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.13%, reflecting a stable overall market sentiment after three consecutive days of gains [2] - The total trading volume decreased to HKD 207.1 billion, with short selling accounting for approximately 18.19% of the total trading volume [2] - Southbound capital flow turned negative, with a net outflow of HKD 3.952 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The paper industry performed well, with several leading companies significantly outperforming the market due to price adjustments in packaging and cultural paper, suggesting a recovery in industry demand [2] - The technology manufacturing sector, including chips and robotics, showed strength, indicating continued investor preference for high-growth and policy-supported sectors [2] - The telecommunications equipment and 5G sectors were active, driven by ongoing 5G construction and a steady increase in base station numbers, leading to optimistic market expectations for equipment investment [3] Group 3: Electricity Consumption Data - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year, reaching 857.2 billion kWh, with a significant rise in the third sector and residential consumption [6][7] - The third sector's electricity consumption grew by 17.1%, driven by the hospitality and restaurant industries, which saw an 18.4% increase due to holiday consumption [7] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to October reached 8,624.6 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [6] Group 4: Industrial Power Generation - In October, industrial power generation increased by 7.9% year-on-year, with a notable recovery in coal-fired power generation [8] - The growth rate of nuclear power generation accelerated, while the growth of hydropower and solar power slowed down [8] - The overall industrial power generation from January to October was 80,625 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The significant increase in electricity consumption in October, particularly in the third sector and residential areas, presents investment opportunities in undervalued power operators [9] - Power operators like China Power (2380.HK) and Huaneng International Power (902.HK) are recommended due to their low valuations and high dividend yields, which exceed or approach 6% [9]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, leading to a decrease in risk aversion and a cautious sentiment among gold market bulls, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces [2] Economic Data Summary - Durable goods orders in the U.S. showed resilience with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in September, surpassing market expectations of 0.3%, although lower than the revised 3.0% increase from the previous month [3] - Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose by 0.6%, continuing an upward trend; however, when excluding defense orders, the growth slowed significantly to only 0.1%, down from 1.9% in the previous month, indicating demand divergence in certain sectors [3] Labor Market and Manufacturing Insights - The labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims falling to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, highlighting the current vitality of the labor market [4] - In contrast, the Chicago PMI for November dropped to 36.3, indicating further contraction in the manufacturing sector, reflecting ongoing pressures [4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials have shifted market expectations towards a potential interest rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [5] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that a short-term rate cut would not hinder the Fed's ability to achieve its inflation targets, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed this sentiment, suggesting that current labor market weaknesses justify another rate cut [5] - Fed Governor Stephen Milan also expressed a dovish stance, indicating that the weakening labor market and overall economic conditions necessitate substantial rate cuts to return monetary policy to neutral levels [5] - The anticipated rate cuts have led to a decline in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is expected to support the price of non-yielding assets like gold [5] - The market will continue to focus on Federal Reserve policy developments and key economic data, with the December FOMC meeting being a critical juncture for assessing the medium to long-term trends in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed outlook for the gold market, with short-term fluctuations in gold ETF prices and optimistic long-term projections for gold prices due to economic uncertainties and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 2 - As of November 27, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.14%, with a latest price of 8.98 yuan, while it saw a cumulative increase of 0.59% over the past week [2]. - The liquidity of the gold ETF fund showed a turnover of 0.79% during the day, with a transaction volume of 312 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 1.488 billion yuan over the past month [2]. - On November 26, spot gold rose by 0.80% to $4,163.78 per ounce, with trading occurring between $4,129.91 and $4,173.42 [2]. - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that economic activity remained stable, with some districts reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting increased risks of economic slowdown in the coming months [2]. - For the week ending November 22, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest level since April, exceeding economists' expectations [3]. - Strong economic indicators, such as a 0.9% increase in non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, have not reversed the expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a December rate cut rising to 85% [3]. - Most banks project that the average gold price will exceed $4,000 by 2026, with Deutsche Bank raising its forecast to $4,450 due to stable investor flows and continued central bank demand [3]. - Recent data showed a net outflow of 18.0228 million yuan from the gold ETF fund, but over the past five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 203 million yuan, with an average net inflow of 40.6145 million yuan [3].

Group 1 - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, leading to an increase in spot gold prices, which rose by 0.8% to $4163.76 per ounce [1] - International oil prices followed risk assets higher, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.67% to $58.48 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.71% to $62.41 per barrel, after hitting a one-month low in the previous trading session [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity has remained largely unchanged in recent weeks, with a growing polarization among consumers [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was recorded at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, marking the lowest level since April 12, 2025 [1] - Traders are increasing bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cuts, expecting a cumulative reduction of 68 basis points by the end of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are rising due to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold futures reaching a two-week high of $4,200 per ounce [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures increased by 0.45% to $4,196.10 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) and Gold Stock ETF (159562) experienced slight declines of 0.04% and 0.19% respectively [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report shows that economic activity has remained stable across most of its 12 districts, although two districts reported slight economic declines and one reported slight growth, indicating a mixed economic outlook [1] Group 2 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and falling below the expected 225,000 [1] - The preliminary value of September durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month-over-month, a significant slowdown compared to the revised previous value of 3% [1] - Following the release of economic data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December rose to 85% [1] Group 3 - Analysts from ANZ Research noted that expectations for rate cuts are rising following dovish comments from policymakers, with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggesting that the labor market is sufficiently weak to warrant another rate cut in December [1] - New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams also expressed that there is still room for further rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall domestic stock index shows strong resilience, with the technology sector experiencing a structural recovery and the index initially stabilizing, but the market volume continues to shrink. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. - Treasury bond futures have significantly declined due to multiple negative factors, and the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe, and pay attention to potential factors that may break the market oscillation [6]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicates an unfavorable outlook for the US economy and employment, leading to a further increase in interest rate cut expectations, which drives precious metals prices higher. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue [7][8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metal sector, different metals have different market conditions. For example, copper prices are supported by the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut and continuous reduction of social inventory; alumina prices are expected to bottom - out and oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; etc. [11][14][17] - In the black metal sector, steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and bearish [43][46][49] - In the agricultural product sector, the meal market is expected to oscillate; the live pig market is expected to be oscillating and bearish [55][58] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Wednesday, the A - share market mostly opened lower and oscillated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others showed different trends. The TMT sector was active, while the chemical industry corrected. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell in line with the index, and the basis discount of the main contracts was somewhat repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. Overseas, the Japanese Prime Minister made statements about the economy and fiscal policy [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 26, the A - share trading volume was basically stable, with a total turnover of 1.78 trillion yuan. Northbound funds had a turnover of 2007.07 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient, but the market volume is shrinking. It is recommended to mainly observe and consider lightly selling put options at support levels [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed significantly lower across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. Long - term bonds performed weaker [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were still relatively loose [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Due to the impact of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations and other factors, the short - term market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe. Pay attention to potential factors such as the implementation of the new bond fund redemption fee regulations, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale, and the release of November economic data [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has changed little, but consumer spending has declined, and employment has slightly decreased. European and Japanese economic situations also have certain impacts. The prices of gold and silver rose, with international gold closing at $4162.35 per ounce, up 0.79%, and international silver closing at $53.31 per ounce, up 3.6% [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The US economic and employment situation is not optimistic, and interest rate cut expectations are increasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the bull market for precious metals is expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the Fed's officials' attitude, US economic data, and liquidity may cause market fluctuations [8]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping on the Europe Route No relevant content provided. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper was 86655 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper was 86705 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the US - proposed peace agreement, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has returned to 80% [11]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of SMM electrolytic copper in China decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [12]. - **Demand**: As of November 20, the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The downstream demand for copper shows strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME copper and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventory decreased [13]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The copper price oscillated strongly on the previous day. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price [14]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [14]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and other regions were flat. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is showing signs of weakness [14]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased. The operating rate decreased, and it is expected that high - cost enterprises may reduce production in November [16]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the port inventory decreased, the factory inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level, and the futures main contract is testing the support at 2700 yuan/ton. The supply may contract, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. It is expected to maintain a bottom - out oscillating trend [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and bearish view [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum was 21400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the market activity and actual transactions were average [17]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November due to winter environmental protection restrictions [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High aluminum prices restricted downstream processing [18]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the inventory of domestic mainstream consumption areas decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory also decreased [18]. - **Logic**: The electrolytic aluminum market showed a position - reducing oscillation, and the short - term downward momentum weakened. The market presents a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and it is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be short - term downward space, with a wide - range oscillating view [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 26, the average spot prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in different regions were flat [19]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly decline in November due to raw material shortages [20][21]. - **Demand**: In November, the demand for traditional automobile consumption showed a mild recovery, but the demand transmission in the terminal field was not smooth, and high aluminum prices restricted downstream procurement [21]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory increased, and the total registered warehouse receipts of casting aluminum alloy also increased [21]. - **Logic**: The casting aluminum alloy market has stabilized after a high - level correction. The cost is supported, the supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand shows resilience. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider participating in the arbitrage of going long on AD02 and shorting AL02 when the spread is above 650, with a wide - range oscillating view [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 26, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see mood [22]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to decrease. The TC of zinc concentrate has declined, and it is expected that the output of refined zinc may decline in November [23]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the three major primary processing industries were basically stable. The domestic demand is stronger than overseas, and the export space is open [24]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, while the LME inventory increased [24]. - **Logic**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the zinc price oscillated strongly on the previous day. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand has shown structural improvement. It is expected to oscillate [25][26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, with an oscillating short - term view [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 26, the price of SMM 1 tin was unchanged, and the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic tin ore import volume increased, and the tin ingot import volume was at a low level. The tin ingot export volume decreased [27]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of soldering tin decreased. The LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, and social inventory all increased [28]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in South China shows certain resilience. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on tin prices and continue to hold previous long positions [29]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold previous long positions and consider buying on dips, with a wide - range oscillating view in the near term [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased, and the spot of some brands was in short supply [29]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel output decreased, but it was still at a high level [30]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support but limited medium - term sustainability [30]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded area inventory is stable [30]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai nickel futures price continued to slightly recover. The market sentiment improved due to low valuations and upstream production cuts. It is expected to oscillate and recover, but the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton, with an oscillating and recovering short - term view [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is affected by stainless steel, with a decline in raw material cost support [32][34]. - **Supply**: In October, the domestic stainless steel output increased. In November, the production is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply pressure of the 300 - series remains high [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is difficult to reduce, and the warehouse receipts continue to decline [33]. - **Logic**: The stainless steel market oscillated narrowly. The cost support is weakening, the supply pressure remains, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel iron prices [34][35]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton, with an oscillating adjustment short - term view [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 26, the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the trading was cold [35]. - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate output increased. As of November 20, the weekly output also increased, mainly driven by lithium spodumene extraction [36]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials are expected to continue to increase. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in downstream orders after November [36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the sample weekly inventory decreased [37]. - **Logic**: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The market is in a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the social inventory is decreasing. However, the market divergence may increase [38]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe, with a wide - range oscillating short - term view [38]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the prices of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials and N - type granular silicon were stable [38]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic polysilicon output is expected to decline to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [39]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [39]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [40]. - **Logic**: The polysilicon spot price is stable, the futures price oscillates upward, and the market presents a reverse market structure. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and cautious trading is recommended [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [40]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 26, the average prices of industrial silicon in different regions were stable [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to decline to about 400,000 tons due to production cuts in the southwest region [41]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [41]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory and social inventories slightly increased [42]. - **Logic**: The industrial silicon现货 is stable, and the futures price oscillates. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to the arbitrage window [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42]. Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel spot price slightly weakened, and the basis also weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, while the iron ore price was relatively firm. The steel mill profit was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [43]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the iron element output increased. Recently, the molten iron output decreased but rebounded this period. The output of five major steel products increased [44]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand expectation is still weak, while the export remains at a high level. The overall demand in November increased compared to October [45]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly [45]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and for hot - rolled coil is 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [45]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 26, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [46]. - **Futures**: