2026年2月2日，全球贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡，打破了此前持续数月的强劲上涨格局。近期以来，受全 球地缘政治不确定性上升、美联储持续释放降息信号、全球央行大规模增持黄金以及工业需求攀升等多 重利好因素共振，国际贵金属价格迎来历史性上涨行情，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，在1月29日创下 5598.75美元/盎司的历史峰值，COMEX黄金价格最高更是触及5626.8美元/盎司，2026年以来最大涨幅 已逼近30%;白银价格同步走强，沪银主力合约创下30444元/千克的历史新高，国际白银价格站上90美 元/盎司关口，年内涨幅超23%。市场看多情绪达到阶段性顶峰，黄金ETF、白银期货持仓量均创下历史 新高，大量资金持续流入贵金属市场，不少机构纷纷上调贵金属长期目标价，看好其避险与增值潜力。 然而，2月2日这一持续向好的态势被彻底逆转，黄金、白银价格迎来断崖式回调，单日跌幅均超3%， 成交量大幅放大，市场恐慌性抛售情绪集中释放，短期市场格局发生根本性转变，成为2026年贵金属市 场最具标志性的波动事件之一。 从当日市场具体表现来看，伦敦金现开盘报5598.75美元/盎司，开盘后便快速下挫，盘中一度跌破5400 美元/盎司关口 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which briefly approached $5,600 per ounce before experiencing a significant drop of $800 within three days, indicating a market correction after being overbought [1] - Gold has gained two new roles as a safe-haven asset: first, to hedge against central bank mismanagement, and second, to protect against U.S. government actions that undermine international trust [2] - The demand for gold has shifted from being viewed as an alternative investment to a necessary asset class in the current geopolitical and monetary environment [2] Group 2 - The article highlights the nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, emphasizing his experience and cautious approach towards quantitative easing (QE) [3][4] - Walsh's potential policies may include gradual interest rate cuts while avoiding the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, contrasting with the current Fed Chair Powell's stance [4] - The article also notes the recent dramatic decline in the U.S. dollar, driven by external factors such as Japan's fiscal measures, and discusses the implications for U.S. economic stability and foreign investment [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised the margin requirements for gold and silver futures trading by 15%-20% to address extreme volatility in the precious metals market and to mitigate systemic risks associated with excessive speculation [1][3]. Group 1: Margin Increase Details - The margin increase is the largest single adjustment in the past five years and aims to curb speculative trading and maintain market stability [1][3]. - The margin adjustment will be implemented in two phases: a 15% increase starting February 2, followed by an additional 5%-10% increase on February 5, covering all futures contracts for gold and silver [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcement, the global precious metals futures market faced short-term pressure, with spot gold prices slightly retreating to around $4,890 per ounce [1]. - The recent volatility was triggered by panic selling in the precious metals market, influenced by the nomination of hawkish candidate Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chair, leading to a 13% drop in gold and over 35% drop in silver prices on a single day [3]. - Analysts believe that the margin increase will directly suppress leveraged trading in the precious metals market, potentially leading to a withdrawal of speculative funds and further pressure on gold and silver prices in the short term [4]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The core issue in the precious metals market remains the expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy; if Warsh is elected, a hawkish monetary policy may persist, putting long-term pressure on precious metals [4]. - However, geopolitical tensions and the global trend of de-dollarization are expected to provide long-term support for precious metals [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals lies in the choice of sovereign funds in the context of de - dollarization. The trends of de - dollarization and reserve diversification continue. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts and a relatively significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU and Silver AG Viewpoints - The demand for precious metals is due to sovereign funds' choices in the de - dollarization context. De - dollarization and reserve diversification trends are ongoing. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have risen notably while US gold warehouse receipts have fallen notably, and domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have plunged [2][3] Fundamentals - The US released a defense strategy report, prioritizing homeland security and its interests in the Western Hemisphere. The US military convened generals from 34 Western Hemisphere countries to strengthen anti - drug military cooperation. Trump said that Iran is having "serious" talks with the US and hopes to reach an acceptable agreement. US media reported that the US is signaling negotiations with Iran, and the two sides may meet in Turkey. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate is at the upper end of the neutral range and said that if tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, it indicates that policy can be loosened. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, expecting him to push for rate cuts. The White House is confident that Warsh's nomination will be quickly confirmed [2][3] Gold and Silver Market Overview - One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - The US Treasury took initial steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market. The US released a defense strategy report and strengthened anti - drug military cooperation in the Western Hemisphere. The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and discussing similar actions in other countries. The Trump administration is considering a naval blockade on Cuba's oil imports. Trump said the US obtained oil from a seized Venezuelan oil tanker. The Japanese yen suddenly rose nearly 200 points, and Japanese officials are closely monitoring the foreign exchange market. Trump increased the reciprocal tariff rate on South Korea from 15% to 25%. The EU will fully ban the import of Russian liquefied natural gas in January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by the end of September. The Federal Reserve paused rate hikes, and some officials supported rate cuts. South Korea is expected to discuss a $350 billion investment program with the US. Trump will announce the Fed chairman nominee and called for a 2 - 3 percentage - point rate cut. Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine. Iran will conduct live - fire naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. The EU listed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a "terrorist organization". The US Treasury did not list any economy as a currency manipulator. The World Gold Council said that central banks' net gold purchases in Q4 were 230 tons, and strong gold demand in 2026 is expected to continue. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The US government entered a partial "shutdown" state, but the House Speaker is confident to end it. SpaceX applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network [7] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 122,450, and the short - position is 35,978. The 5 - day change in the long - position is - 4%, and in the short - position is - 1%. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 5,556, and in the short - position is 2,599 [8] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of gold is 1,447 tons, with SPDR's holding at 862 tons and iShares' at 402 tons. The 5 - day changes are - 2% and - 4% respectively [8] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 3 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 16,492 hands, and the 1 - week change in the warehouse receipt is - 1 ton [8] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Silver Market Tracking - **COMEX Futures and Options**: The latest long - position of managed funds is 44,277, and the short - position is 27,801. The 5 - day change in the long - position is 57, and in the short - position is 58. The 1 - week change in the long - position is - 4,423, and in the short - position is - 4,757 [12] - **ETF Holdings**: The latest total ETF holding of silver is 23,620 tons, and SLV's holding is 13,802 tons. The 5 - day changes are 58 and 78,420 respectively [12] - **Futures Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The latest futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands, and the Shanghai warehouse receipt is 1,075 tons. The 5 - day change in the futures position is 78,420 hands, and the 5 - day change in the warehouse receipt is - 7 tons [12] Gold and Silver Market Overview - Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - The import gold hedging profit margin and import silver hedging profit margin are presented in a time - series graph, with data from July 15, 2024, to January 15, 2026 [19] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - position of the US dollar index and the total futures and options positions of the US dollar index are presented in time - series graphs, with data from July 1, 2025, to January 27, 2026 [21][22][23] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Treasury Futures Position Tracking - The non - commercial net long - positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury futures and options, as well as the total futures positions of US Treasuries, are presented in time - series graphs, with data spanning multiple years [26][27] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Inflation Expectation - The break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods are presented in a time - series graph, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [31] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Real Interest Rate - The real yield curves of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasuries are presented in a time - series graph, with monthly data from March 2006 to September 2025 [33] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - US Interest Rate Term Structure - The US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented [35] Factors Affecting Precious Metal Price Movements - 2 - Year Treasury Yield Spreads between the US and Major Non - US Countries - The yield spreads between the 2 - year US Treasury and 2 - year Treasuries of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany are presented in time - series graphs, with data from December 5, 2025, to February 1, 2026 [39]

Group 1 - The extreme volatility in precious metals continues, with spot gold dropping below $4,700 and experiencing a decline of over 6%, while spot silver saw a dramatic drop of over 7% before rebounding [1] - In the domestic futures market, the main gold futures contract fell over 15%, reaching 1,016 yuan per gram, and the main silver futures contract hit the limit down [1] - The precious metals sector in the A-share market faced significant losses, with most stocks, except for Hunan Silver, hitting the limit down, and heavy selling pressure observed in popular stocks [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, New Lake Futures believes that medium to long-term support for gold prices remains, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, while the long-term trend of deteriorating global debt sustainability and de-dollarization supports structural strength in gold [2] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase their gold holdings, providing solid support for gold prices, with expectations that European official or institutional investors may also join the gold buying trend this year [2] - In terms of trading strategies, Longcheng Futures suggests that after a significant short-term correction, the upper pressure range for the main gold futures contract is between 1,115 yuan per gram and 1,165 yuan per gram, while the lower support range is between 950 yuan per gram and 1,000 yuan per gram [2]

报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属遭受重挫 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会 31 日发布 2026 年 1 月份中国采购经理指 数。数据显示，1 月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势， 产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026 年 1 月 份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。1 月份装备制 造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为 52%，装备制造业和 高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。受获利回吐和短期期货 交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格 1 月 30 日继续大幅下跌，均 创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。1 月 30 日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金 期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 美元/盎 司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：周五国际市场贵金属价格暴跌，现货白银一度跌超 30%，现货黄金一度 跌超 10%。此次巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为 1 月 30 ...

具体而言，投资者应以谨慎防守为主。黄金的长期配置价值虽在，但短期内需在新的宏观叙事下寻找合 理的估值中枢。白银风险已急剧放大，参与需极度谨慎。春节长假临近，外盘走势不确定性较大，保持 灵活仓位与充足流动性是首要纪律。 本次调整的直接触发点，是特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什为美联储下一任主席。凯文·沃什的提名本质上是 政治博弈与市场信任重建的结果。一方面，他历史上以批评量化宽松、强调央行独立性而闻名，政策主 张具有鲜明的"鹰派"色彩，特别是反对将资产负债表扩张作为常态工具，主张通过缩表来维护政策空 间。另一方面，他也同样支持通过降息来降低实体经济融资成本，其政策框架呈现出"既鹰又鸽"的矛盾 统一。对于市场而言，凯文·沃什的上任意味着"无约束宽松"的预期被彻底打破，政策路径将更加注重 纪律与平衡，这对前期建立在极端宽松叙事上的资产价格构成了直接冲击。 本次金银暴跌的深层原因则在于市场自身脆弱的运行状态。经历近一个月脱离基本面的急速拉升，金银 市场已积累了巨大的获利盘，技术性回调需求强烈。凯文·沃什的提名成为引爆市场获利了结的导火 索，最终演变为纽约期金单日最大跌幅超10%、白银大跌逾30%。 整体而言，此次金银调整更多 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily discuss the cyclical sector, including commodities like precious metals, chemicals, oil shipping, and aviation [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Impact - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Kevin Walsh's hawkish position as the new Fed Chair has temporarily alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence, but his proposed policies of balance sheet reduction and interest rate cuts may not effectively address issues like deficit monetization and government debt financing costs [1][27]. - **Liquidity Environment**: Both domestic and international liquidity conditions are currently loose, supporting price increases in precious and non-ferrous metals. Geopolitical instability and de-dollarization trends provide long-term support for these assets [1][4]. Commodity Performance - **Cyclical Sector Performance**: The cyclical sector in the A-share market has shown strong performance since early 2026, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, particularly a 60% increase in precious metals in January [2][23]. - **Chemical Sector**: Despite recent price increases, the chemical sector is in a seasonal demand lull, and valuations are no longer attractive. The long-term outlook indicates a decrease in global chemical capacity growth due to reduced capital expenditure in China [5][6]. Oil Shipping Market - **High Demand and Pricing**: The oil shipping market is experiencing high demand due to OPEC+ production increases, with the VLOC freight index showing significant price increases. The market is characterized by limited supply and high demand, indicating a strong bullish outlook [1][13][14]. Aviation Sector - **Valuation and Recovery**: The aviation sector is currently facing short-term losses, but valuations have reached reasonable levels. Ticket prices are expected to recover and potentially exceed 2019 levels, with profit peaks possibly reaching 15 billion to 20 billion yuan [1][15][16]. Highway Sector - **Investment Attractiveness**: The highway sector has become more attractive relative to the broader market, with specific stocks like Sichuan Chengyu and Shenzhen International offering high dividend yields [1][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The significant rise in non-ferrous metals prices in January 2026 was driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, including U.S. interventions in various regions and military demand [23][25]. - **Future Trends in Chemical Industry**: The chemical industry is expected to face challenges due to stricter carbon emission regulations and reduced capital expenditure, leading to a decline in capacity growth [7][8][9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term price corrections, the long-term outlook for various commodities remains positive, with potential for price recovery as supply constraints and demand growth align [11][30][31]. Conclusion The cyclical sector is currently navigating a complex landscape influenced by monetary policy, geopolitical factors, and sector-specific dynamics. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in oil shipping, aviation, and select highway stocks, while caution is advised in the chemical sector due to valuation concerns and regulatory pressures.

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huaxi Securities highlights a significant drop in gold prices, with a decline of over 9% on January 30, marking the largest single-day drop in 40 years. This decline is attributed to market concerns over the potential shift in Trump's preference for a weaker dollar, which has historically supported gold prices. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to structural issues in the US GDP and persistent expectations of interest rate cuts [1]. Supply - Gold supply is projected to increase by 1% year-on-year by 2025, reaching 5,002.3 tons. Producers are focusing on full-price risk exposure with limited interest in hedging. Despite a positive outlook for gold miners in 2025, the market's median expectation for falling gold prices may lead some participants to adopt a more cautious approach [1]. Demand - Total gold demand (excluding OTC and others) is expected to reach 4,999.4 tons in 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. Notably, investment demand is projected to surge by 84% to 2,175.3 tons, while demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to decline by 19% to 1,638.0 tons [2]. Jewelry - Global jewelry demand is expected to decline in volume due to rising gold prices, but the value of demand is projected to increase across all markets. This indicates that consumers are willing to spend more on jewelry despite the volume decrease, driven by higher gold prices [3]. Investment - Global gold investment is forecasted to more than double, reaching an impressive $240 billion in 2025. Key drivers include safe-haven demand, geopolitical risks, and expectations of interest rate cuts. The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see a historical high in investment demand, with total purchases of ETFs, gold bars, and coins reaching 1,141 tons [4]. Central Banks - Central bank net gold demand is projected to rise to 230 tons in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 6% increase from the previous quarter. Despite a cautious approach due to rising gold prices, central banks' long-term interest in gold remains strong, with total annual demand reaching 863 tons [5]. Industrial - Gold demand in the technology sector is expected to remain stable, with the fourth quarter showing consistent performance. The demand for gold in electronics is driven by the ongoing AI boom, although there are challenges in other areas of the electronics sector due to capacity constraints [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the acceleration of "de-dollarization" trends are expected to sustain central bank and investor demand for gold. Concerns over global debt and monetary policies are likely to benefit gold prices in the long term. The report suggests focusing on gold resource stocks, which are currently undervalued, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [8].

2、美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，接替将于5月结束任期 的鲍威尔。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。不过，参议院民主党领袖舒默、共和党参议员蒂利斯 已表示，将阻止对沃什的提名，除非撤销针对鲍威尔的调查。民主党参议员沃伦也表示，沃什并 非美联储主席的理想人选。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗 普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付 ...