智通财经APP获悉，虽然经济学界普遍预期美国总统特朗普的关税政策将在未来数月显著推高通胀，但 迄今温和的价格涨幅使这一共识受到质疑。这种态势既助长了白宫的底气，也加剧了美联储内部的政策 分歧。 出于对通胀走强的预期，美联储今年始终按兵不动，维持利率不变。特朗普政府正对美联储主席鲍威尔 施加巨大压力要求降息，而近日已有两位美联储理事公开与鲍威尔唱反调，主张7月就应启动降息。 未来两周将发布的两项关键数据——7月3日的非农就业报告与7月15日的消费者价格指数——将成为美 联储决策的重要依据。尽管这两项数据预计将首次显现关税影响，但任何意外都可能改变降息时间表。 "当前局面如此棘手，原因之一在于我们过去从未做过这类政策实验，"耶鲁管理学院教授、前美联储高 级经济学家William English在谈及关税时指出，"这超出了现代美国经济的经验范畴，因此任何预测都难 以保证准确性。" 近期数据显示，尽管关税政策持续实施，通胀在5月仍保持温和，这促使特朗普及其盟友加大了对美联 储的抨击。这位美国总统多次辱骂鲍威尔是"榆木脑袋"，并称其"政府中最愚蠢、最具破坏力的人之 一"。 包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在内的多 ...

证券研究报告 5 月宏观数据回顾：1）5 月社零同比较 4 月的 5.1%回升至 6.4%，而工业 增加值/固定资产投资同比回落至 5.8%/2.9%；2）5 月出口同比增速从 4 月 的 8.1%回落至 4.8%，对美出口进一步回落，对东盟、欧盟出口维持高增； 进口同比从 4 月的-0.3%回落至-3.4%；3）5 月新增人民币贷款 6,200 亿， 同比少增 3300 亿元；新增社融 2.29 万亿元，低基数下同比多增 2,247 亿元； M1 同比增速从 4 月的 1.5%回升至 2.3%，M2 同比增速从 4 月的 8%小幅回 落至 7.9%。4）5 月 CPI 同比持平于 4 月的-0.1%；PPI 同比降幅走阔至 3.3%。 宏观 多重因素推动需求增长环比回落 2025 年 6 月 30 日│中国内地 图说中国月报 6 月宏观走势几何? 季调后财政支出力度在二季度以来环比回落，关税对企业利润率的影响逐步 凸显，同时 6 月高频指标显示地产销售走弱，消费或受购物节提前、补贴退 坡及违规吃喝监管等影响回落。但 6 月政府融资有所提速，有望对基建开工 形成支撑。整体而言，低基数下经济同比指标或维持韧性， ...

海外经济：降息预期升温 长端利率上行的限制性作用逐渐发酵，美国地产投资加速收缩，经济动能整体趋弱。亚特兰大联储GDPNOW 模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速回落0.5pct至2.9%，其中地产投资增速再下行1.2pct至-5.4%，建筑投资 增速再下行0.1pct至-3.5%。 尽管经济动能趋弱，但美国就业形势依然稳健。周频首次申领失业金人数回落1.0万至23.6万，符合季节性水 平。 中东局势缓和，油价见顶回落，通胀压力边际缓解。墨西哥湾/纽约港汽油价格较前期高点回落约10%，逼近 伊以冲突爆发前的水平。 财政政策保持扩张立场。《大而美法案》以51:49通过参议院程序性动议投票。周频财政盈余$737亿，符合季 节性水平，趋势上仍然强于历史同期。 货币政策边际转鸽，市场降息预期升温。以理事沃勒和副主席鲍曼为首的少数鸽派继续重申7月降息立场，以 鲍威尔主席为首的多数谨慎派表态亦有转向，如若情况合适将对提前降息持开放态度。 海外策略：风险偏好上升 上周影响海外市场走势的逻辑有两条：一是美联储降息预期升温。二是伊以停火。在此背景下，美债利率、美 元、黄金均明显回调，人民币略有升值。 美股方面，上周美股上涨2.9 ...

的财政赤字抬高以及美元信用边际受损仍利多金价，联储官员继续释放鸽派降息信号或提振白银工业属性 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 ，进而打开银价进一步的上行空间。短期注意回调风险，沪金2508合约关注区间：750-780元/克；沪银250 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 8合约关注区间：8700-9000元/千克。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 贵金属产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 767.58 | 1.18 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8762 | -30 | | | 主力合约持仓 ...

Core Insights - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) annual report indicates that interest payments by OECD member countries have reached 4% of GDP in 2024 and are expected to continue rising [1] Group 1 - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability may lead to refinancing difficulties [1] - Pressure in the sovereign debt market could transmit to inflation and financial stability [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. long-term bond funds are experiencing the largest capital outflow in five years, with a net outflow of $11 billion in Q2 2025, marking the highest since the market turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - This sell-off reverses a trend of average inflows of $20 billion over the previous 12 quarters, indicating deep investor anxiety regarding the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The outflow reflects broader concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook, exacerbated by rising debt levels, inflation, and supply issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Debt Concerns - The U.S. is facing a "debt tsunami," with projections of trillions in additional debt over the next decade due to tax reforms, leading to accelerated Treasury issuance to cover deficits [1] - Market trust in fiscal sustainability is rapidly eroding, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs' chief credit strategist [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to trigger imported inflation, which poses a significant threat to long-term bonds [2] - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real purchasing power of fixed interest payments [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The U.S. Treasury's accelerated borrowing to fill deficits has led to a supply-demand imbalance in long-term bonds, with prices dropping approximately 1% this quarter and 30-year yields nearing 4.82% [3] - Bill Gross warns that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to break below 4.25% due to fiscal deficits and a weak dollar contributing to inflation [3] Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to long-term bonds, short-term Treasury funds attracted over $39 billion this quarter, indicating a significant shift in investor strategy [4] - Investors are opting for shorter maturities to lock in yields while avoiding long-term inflation risks, with expectations of delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until 2026 [4] - The preference for liquidity is heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, leading to a focus on more liquid short-term assets [4] Group 5: Global Implications - The sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries is prompting a global reallocation of capital, with institutions like PIMCO reducing exposure to the dollar and long-term bonds [5] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's, sovereign funds are accelerating diversification into gold and non-U.S. bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.49% [5] - There is an increasing demand for risk compensation, as investors anticipate needing higher returns on the long end of the yield curve, despite the core status of U.S. Treasuries remaining intact [5] Group 6: Historical Context - The current scale of Treasury sell-offs has surpassed the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and the bond market crash of 2022, suggesting that if U.S. fiscal discipline continues to falter, the process of "de-dollarization" may accelerate, reshaping the global financial landscape [6]

智通财经6月30日电，欧洲央行副行长GUINDOS在马德里发表讲话表示，当前的利率立场是正确的，利 率政策与通胀向2%靠拢是兼容的。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Profit Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May [3][4] - The decline in profits is attributed to multiple factors including reduced working days, tariff adjustments causing delays in orders and production, and a decrease in both volume and price, leading to a 2.7% increase in operating income [4][5] - The profit margin for the first five months was 4.97%, down 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a worsening profitability situation for industrial enterprises [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Chinese economy has maintained stable growth despite external pressures, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing market expectations [8] - The report anticipates a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the latter half of 2025 due to declining export momentum and diminishing policy effects, with infrastructure investment being crucial for achieving annual GDP growth targets [8][9] - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with potential measures including the issuance of government bonds to support economic growth [9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Strategy - The fixed income market saw a significant increase in the issuance of government bonds in the first half of 2025, with net financing close to 3.4 trillion yuan, double that of the same period in 2024 [10][11] - The report suggests that the bond market will remain in a volatile state, with limited opportunities for significant trends, emphasizing the importance of tactical trading strategies [16] - The anticipated monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, are expected to influence the bond market dynamics positively [16] Group 4: Metal Industry Investment Strategy - The metal industry report highlights strong price trends for copper, aluminum, gold, cobalt, and rare earth elements, with gold expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts [23][25] - The report notes a recovery in rare earth export demand, driven by the growth in the new energy and robotics sectors, following recent adjustments in export controls [25][26] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with strong resource bases and cost control capabilities in the gold and rare earth sectors [27] Group 5: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant developments in high-end medical device innovation and new drug approvals [28][29] - The report indicates a rebound in the pharmaceutical market, driven by improved policies and a reduction in negative impacts from previous regulations [30] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving performance metrics, particularly in the CXO and medical device segments [30]

Group 1 - The economic data for May in the U.S. shows a stark contrast between consumer spending and inflation, leading to unexpected market reactions. Consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, contrary to the anticipated increase of 0.1%, indicating a significant cooling in the consumption market [1] - In contrast, the core PCE year-on-year rate surged to 2.7%, the highest since February 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, far exceeding market expectations of stagnation. This combination of weak consumer data and high inflation places the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [1] Group 2 - Traders are predicting that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates three times in 2025 to balance the economy. Following this, the gold market experienced a brief rebound after an initial drop, but this was seen as a temporary phenomenon due to short covering [3] - Technically, the gold market shows a bearish arrangement in the 1-hour moving average, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. Gold is currently facing resistance around the key level of 3295, which has become a short-term dividing line for bulls and bears [3]

Global Central Bank Dynamics - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.6%. Actual personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year, while personal income decreased by 0.4%, the largest drop since 2021 [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the strong U.S. economy and the uncertainties brought by high tariffs. He indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates [2] - The Federal Reserve is considering a potential rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens. The impact of tariffs on price pressures appears to be offset [2] - The Federal Reserve is planning to relax a key capital requirement that has been criticized by large banks, allowing them to hold more U.S. Treasury securities [3] European Central Bank and Other Central Banks - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde called for the implementation of a digital euro, highlighting its importance for European financial sovereignty [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey noted that uncertainties regarding global economic structural changes are affecting the foreign exchange market, leading investors to reconsider their positions [4] - The Bank of Japan's committee member expressed concerns about accelerating inflation, suggesting that the central bank may need to raise interest rates decisively despite uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [4] Market Observations - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the U.S. dollar, primarily due to a more dovish reassessment of interest rate expectations by the Bank of Japan [7] - RBC Wealth Management forecasts that the Bank of England may cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of 2025, contingent on further declines in inflation [7] - The Mexican central bank voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a potential slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts [6]