文字早评 2025/06/30 星期一 宏观金融类 宏观消息面： 1、央行等六部门：创新适应家庭财富管理需求的金融产品，规范居民投资理财业务， 提高居民财产性收入； 2、央行等六部门发布 19 项举措：支持增强居民消费能力、支持提高消费供应 效率、加强基础金融服务； 3、以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期 12 天的冲突 于北京时间 24 日结束；4、国泰君安国际获批升级牌照，成为香港首家可提供全面虚拟资产服务的中资 券商，支持加密货币交易等业务；5、美联储理事鲍曼：若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，7 月可能会 降息。美联储将于 7 月 22 日举办关于银行资本的会议；6、商务部：中美 6 月 9 日至 10 日伦敦经贸会 谈后，近日双方进一步确认了框架细节，中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请，美方将相应取 消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。7、沪深交易所：拟将主板风险警示股票涨跌幅限制比例调整为 10%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.76%/-1.00%/-1.15%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.63%/-1.26%/-2.02%/-3.96 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a significant decline on June 27, with an opening price of $3324.88 per ounce, a high of $3336.42, a low of $3256.00, and a closing price of $3274.59 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing market expectations of 2.6% and up from a previous value of 2.5% [2] - The month-on-month core PCE price index for May was reported at 0.2%, also above the expected 0.1% and the previous value of 0.1% [2] - Consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1% in May, contrary to market expectations of a 0.1% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer activity [2] - The quarterly growth in consumer spending was only 0.5%, marking the lowest increase since Q2 2020 [2] - Consumer expectations for price increases over the next year have decreased to 5%, down from 6.6% in May, which was the largest monthly increase since 2001 [2] Trade Relations - President Trump stated that there is no need to extend the July 9 trade deadline, emphasizing that countries must reach agreements with the U.S. before this date to avoid higher tariffs [3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that negotiations with several countries are ongoing, and agreements with 10 to 12 of the 18 key trade partners could potentially be finalized by Labor Day (September 1) [3] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump indicated that a ceasefire in Gaza may be "close" to being achieved within a week, and he is open to lifting sanctions on Iran if they agree to peace [5] - The U.S. Senate rejected a proposal to limit Trump's military action against Iran [5] - Ukraine reported the largest airstrike by Russia since the conflict began, with 537 aerial weapons launched, of which 249 were intercepted by Ukrainian forces [6] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a strong bearish trend, with significant downward movement observed, particularly during the trading session on June 27 [8] - The daily chart indicates a strong bearish candlestick formation, suggesting a potential downward trend continuation [8] - Short-term indicators show oversold conditions, indicating a possible need for price correction [9] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading ranges include aggressive long positions at $3249 with a target above $3263 and aggressive short positions at $3283 with a target below $3265 [10] - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a focus on potential fluctuations in gold prices due to upcoming economic data releases [10]

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金跌 0.89 %，报 765.54 元/克，沪银跌 1.04 %，报 8718.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 1.85 %， 报 3286.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 2.06 %，报 36.17 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.29%，美元指数报 97.14 ； 市场展望： 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的潜在通胀风险则是联储主席 鲍威尔对于降息维持谨慎态度的主要原因。然而从实际进口的价格压力来看，美国剔除食品和 能源的进口价格指数由今年 1 月份的 109.3 上升至对等关税宣布后五月份的 110.2，其幅度远 低于 2020-2022 年期间受到疫情后海外宽松政策以及俄乌冲突所带来进口价格指数的上升。美 国通胀数据方面，美国 5 月 CPI 同比值为 2.4%，低于预期和前值的 2.5%， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of factors, including low processing fees, seasonal demand decline, and geopolitical influences, which are creating structural contradictions in supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of June 27, 2025, the main copper futures contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, with a weekly price change of 2.23% [1] - The trading range for the week was between 78,480 yuan/ton and 80,060 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest by 48,823 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Inventory Levels - As of June 26, 2025, total copper inventory in Shanghai was 15,560 tons, an increase of 1,527 tons from the previous day, while inventories in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang also saw increases, leading to a total inventory of 23,696 tons, up by 2,226 tons [2] Industry Challenges - Executives in the global metals industry are facing rising capital expenditures due to inflation and infrastructure development, which are increasing the costs of new copper mines [2] - The low processing fees for copper mines are beginning to affect the smelting sector, with production cuts spreading from smaller smelters to larger enterprises, although significant large-scale reductions have not yet occurred [3] Demand and Pricing Outlook - The copper market is currently constrained by a combination of tight supply from the mining sector and a seasonal decline in demand, leading to cautious purchasing sentiment among downstream consumers [3] - Despite low inventory levels and easing geopolitical tensions providing some support, the overall acceptance of higher prices by downstream consumers remains limited [3] - Recent price increases in copper have led to a widening premium in the spot market, but attention is needed on the downstream demand's ability to sustain these higher prices [3]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach to interest rate policy during congressional hearings, which has drawn criticism from President Trump, who expressed a desire for Powell to resign and indicated he would only appoint those willing to lower rates [1][3] - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on the economy remains uncertain, with potential inflationary pressures expected to manifest in the coming months, particularly in June, July, and August [3][4] - Recent data showed a rise in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, indicating inflationary trends, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in May, surpassing expectations [3][4] Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts suggest that weak consumer spending combined with moderate inflation may not be sufficient for the Fed to initiate rate cuts in July, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut in September [4][5] - Current market probabilities indicate an 81.4% chance that the Fed will maintain rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 18.6% [4] - Fed officials have indicated that if inflation remains controlled, they may support a rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [4][6] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising from 52.2 in May to 60.7 in June, marking the largest monthly increase in 2024 [5] - Despite the rise in confidence, consumer spending saw a significant decline in May, reflecting uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's economic policies, with inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures dropping by 0.3% [5][6] - The decline in spending was broad-based, indicating a weaker domestic demand and economic resilience than initially estimated [6] Potential Leadership Changes at the Fed - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing his next nominee for Fed Chair as early as September, which would break historical norms and could influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [6][7] - Potential candidates for the position include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, among others [7] - Analysts warn that such a non-traditional approach could raise concerns about the independence of the Fed and create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [7]

周度报告-外汇期货 美国 PCE 超预期。 d[Table_Title] 美国 PCE 超预期，美元走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好回升，股市多数上涨，债券收益率涨跌互现，美 债收益率降至 4.27%。美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，非美货币多数 升值，离岸人民币涨 0.09%，欧元涨 1.67%，英镑涨 1.92%，日 元涨 0.99%，瑞郎涨 2.3%，澳元、卢比、新西兰元、比索涨超 1%，韩元、兰特、林吉特、泰铢等收涨。金价跌 2.8%至 3274 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数降至 16.3，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 11.7%至 69 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美国对伊朗核设施完成打击后立刻抽身，没有向着深陷中东战 争泥潭的方向发展，反而加快了伊朗和以色列停火的进程，市 场避险情绪减弱，原油价格回吐涨幅也降低了美国的通胀风 险。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会就货币政策半年度报告作证词， 表态维持鹰派基调，短期在经济尚未衰退的情况下，美联储降 息意愿不强，目前基准预期是 9 月降息，美联储内部分歧加 大，理事沃勒、鲍曼的讲话中表示 7 月可能便会降息，但博 ...

鲍威尔周二坚持表示美联储不急于改变利率，英国央行本月早些时候也维持借贷成本不变。欧央行刚刚 实施降息后暂不准备进一步行动，日本央行预计在7月31日会议上维持基准利率不变，韩国央行同样坚 持谨慎行事。 这种集体观望态度反映出各国央行面对当前复杂经济环境的谨慎立场。 美国6月就业报告将在下周四发布，比平时提前一天，原因是独立日假期安排。经济学家预测雇主当月 新增就业岗位11.3万个，为四个月来最少，但仍与健康的劳动力需求保持一致。失业率预计将小幅上升 至4.3%。对于正在等待关税潜在通胀影响更多明确信息的美联储而言，劳动力市场任何显著恶化都可 能给官员们带来更多降息压力。 2025年欧洲央行中央银行论坛将于6月30日至7月2日在葡萄牙辛特拉举行，届时美联储主席鲍威尔、欧 洲央行行长拉加德将与来自日本、韩国和英国的央行同僚同台，共同探讨如何应对白宫决策的连锁反 应。 从关税引发的贸易摩擦到中东冲突导致的油价波动，各国央行正面临如何处理这些影响的关键问题。这 场在欧洲央行年度会议上举行的高级别会议，将是拉加德与鲍威尔自2024年同一活动以来首次公开同台 讨论。 央行普遍保持观望 在2025年中期节点，全球货币政策几乎 ...

全球主要经济体6月PMI终值公布。 上周国际市场风云变幻，伊朗与以色列达成停火协议，市场风险偏好有所改善。美股剑指历史新高，道 指周涨3.82%，纳指周涨4.25%，标普500指数周涨3.44%。欧洲三大股指延续涨势，英国富时100指数周 涨0.28%，德国DAX 30指数周涨2.92%，法国DAX 30指数周涨1.34%。 本周看点颇多，美国月度就业数据将受到关注，因为市场正在权衡美联储是否会在下个月开始降息。在 欧洲，焦点将集中在全球央行行长在葡萄牙辛特拉举行的欧洲央行论坛上的评论，以及欧元区通胀数 据。此外，欧美主要经济体6月PMI终值表现将反映关税压力下各国商业活动潜力。 非农能否决定7月降息 本周，美国6月非农就业数据将受到密切关注，因为就业市场疲软的证据可能会增加外界对美联储可能 很快降息的猜测。 到目前为止，美联储主席鲍威尔一直敦促谨慎降息，因为关税有引发通胀的风险。本周他将亮相葡萄牙 辛特拉，出席欧央行论坛并讲话。荷兰国际集团ING首席国际经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在一 份报告中表示："美联储可能需要看到更明确的疲软证据，即就业增长放缓和失业率上升，才能尽早采 取行动。" ...

（1）动力煤：动力煤价格边际上涨。月底煤炭产地停产减产增多，供给收 紧，加之夏季用煤高峰开启，补库刚需释放，煤炭销售走强、价格探涨。 （2）螺纹钢：价格跌幅走扩。本周螺纹钢现货价格环比-0.73%。247家钢厂 高炉开工率 83.8%，持平前周。淡季背景下现货供增需弱，钢价延续弱势。 【债券周报】 进入政策等待期 ——每周高频跟踪 20250628 证 券 研 究报 告 （3）铜：铜价边际上涨。现货市场延续淡季成交行情，月末出货积极性提 升，下游补库以刚需为主，铜价弹性持续受限。 投资相关：地产成交成交进入季末冲刺 1、水泥：水泥价格跌幅扩大。水泥价格环比-1.7%、前周环比-0.6%。南方降 水影响、中部洪涝灾害压制需求，水泥价格以下跌为主。 2、地产：（1）30城新房销售延续上行。6月20日-6月26日30城新房成交面 积环比+41.3%，同比-7.1%，降幅收窄。（2）二手房成交季节性抬升。二手 房成交环比+5.3、同比-1.4%，冲刺斜率弱于去年同期。 2、原油：价格明显回落。布伦特原油、WTI原油价格环比-12%、-11.3%， 主因伊以达成停火协议，中东地缘局势快速缓和，市场对霍尔木兹海峡可能 被 ...