南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 周蕊 纽约报道 美东当地时间1月28日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标 区间维持在 3.5%至3.75%不变，这一决定符合市场普遍预期。 在会后发布的声明中，美联储指出，最新数据显示，美国经济仍在以"稳健的速度"扩张。尽管就业增长 依然偏弱，但失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象；与此同时，通胀水平仍处在相对偏高区间。 在随后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，结合近期经济数据来看，目前尚难认定货币政策已对 经济形成明显压制。"不少委员认为，仅凭最新数据，还不足以说明政策立场已经明显偏紧。"他说。 标普500盘中触及7000点关口 在美联储公布利率决定当天，美股一度受到经济评估偏积极的提振。盘中，标普500指数首次突破7000 点心理关口，创下历史新高。不过，在投资者重新评估政策前景后，指数涨幅逐渐收窄，最终微跌收 盘。 市场人士指出，指数触及关键整数位更多具有象征意义，而货币政策的中长期路径，仍是影响资产定价 的核心变量。 利率调整仍将逐次评估 鲍威尔指出，自上一次议息会议以来，美国经济前景整体出现改善。通胀走势基本符合预期，而部分劳 动力市场 ...

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

1月29日回溯年1月28日(周三)，加元兑美元延续强势格局，在加拿大央行维持利率不变的政策支撑与美 元指数大幅走弱的双重利好下，美元兑加元跌破关键支撑位，创下2026年以来新低。作为资源型货币， 加元同时受益于国际油价企稳回升，虽受国内疲软经济基本面制约，仍实现阶段性走强，日内波动呈 现"震荡上行、稳步走高"态势。 当日美元兑加元开盘报1.3581，与前一交易日收盘价持平。早盘受加拿大央行利率决议公布前的谨慎情 绪影响，汇价在1.3580-1.3614区间窄幅震荡，盘中触及日内高点1.3614。午后加拿大央行公布利率决议 及货币政策报告，明确维持基准利率不变并释放中性偏稳信号，叠加美元指数持续下挫，美元兑加元快 速走低，跌破1.3700关键支撑位后，进一步下探至日内低点1.3534，创下2026年以来新低。 截至当日收盘，美元兑加元报1.3548，较前一交易日下跌0.24%；对应加元兑美元收于0.7374，日内最 高触及0.7374，最低下探0.7346，整体呈现强势上行态势。交叉盘方面，100加元可兑换512.29元人民 币，加元兑人民币随非美货币集体走强小幅回弹，缓解了开年以来的贬值压力。当日加拿大股市因 ...

近期澳元兑美元（AUD/USD）走势表现强势，截至周四亚洲交易时段，该货币对已连续第三个交易日延续涨势，交投于0.7040附近，整体呈现稳步上行态 势。此次涨势并非偶然，核心驱动力来自澳大利亚最新公布的通胀数据超预期，直接推升了澳洲联储（RBA）的加息预期，为澳元提供了强劲支撑。 周三公布的澳大利亚通胀数据成为市场焦点，多项关键指标均超出市场预期，印证了国内通胀压力仍在持续。数据显示，澳大利亚12月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.8%，较前一个月的3.4%有所回升，也高于市场普遍预期的3.6%；月度CPI环比上涨1.0%，相较于前值0%的持平状态大幅改善，同样超出 0.7%的预期值。作为核心通胀参考的澳大利亚央行截尾均值通胀率，环比上升0.2%、同比上升3.3%，始终高于澳洲联储设定的2%-3%政策目标区间，进一 步强化了加息必要性。 通胀数据的向好，直接改变了市场对澳洲联储后续货币政策的预期。目前市场预测，澳洲联储最早可能在下周的议息会议上启动加息，将现金利率从当前的 3.6%上调25个基点，这一加息概率已从数据公布前的60%升至70%以上。 从长期利率定价来看，市场预计到5月份，利率将完全定价至3. ...

Daniel表示，虽然委员会仍认为通胀"略高"，但语气显示短期内并无急于再次降息的意图。理事华勒与 米兰提出的鸽派反对票突显了内部持续的分歧，但多数成员正采取更为耐心、数据导向的立场，并受到 较强劲的成长与初步劳动市场稳定的支持。 骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk表示，美联储将利率维持在 3.50%-3.75%，显示其对近期劳动市场渐趋稳定且经济活动更为强劲的信心。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas market, the January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed continued to purchase short - term bonds, and the balance sheet expanded. In the context of a weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks, precious metals, industrial metals, and oil prices all showed upward trends. In the domestic market, A - shares fluctuated and closed higher, with funds flowing back to the dividend sector. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was still positive [2][3]. - Precious metals continued to soar, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level. Copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, and aluminum prices reached a new high. Alumina was expected to rebound in the short term, and cast aluminum was expected to follow the upward trend. Zinc prices were expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, while lead prices were expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark. Tin prices were expected to be volatile at a high level. Steel products and iron ore were under pressure, and coking coal and coke futures rebounded. Bean and rapeseed meal were expected to be volatile and stronger, and palm oil was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][16][17][19][20][21][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The January FOMC meeting maintained the interest rate at 3.50%–3.75% with a 10:2 vote. Most members adhered to data - dependence and policy observation. The Fed continued to purchase $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, and the balance sheet expanded until at least April. Powell emphasized the marginal stability of the economy, and the weak US dollar and rising geopolitical risks drove up the prices of precious metals, industrial metals, and oil [2]. - Domestic: A - shares fluctuated and closed higher on Wednesday. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and the two - market trading volume rebounded to 2.99 trillion yuan. The margin trading scale remained above 2.7 trillion yuan. The market was in a differentiated stage, and the medium - term trend was positive [3]. Precious Metals - Prices continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $5400 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures approached $120 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties led investors to seek refuge in gold. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, and concerns about silver delivery risks also boosted silver prices. The gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a low level [4][5]. Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated and declined, while LME copper was strongly volatile above $13,000. Domestic spot trading was poor, and inventories increased. The Fed's neutral policy stance was considered appropriate. The weak US dollar boosted copper prices. In the short term, copper prices were expected to remain volatile at a high level, and precious metals would drive up the copper price center in the medium term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 25,640 yuan/ton, up 5.75%. LME aluminum closed at $3263.5/ton, up 1.59%. Geopolitical risks in Iran and capital inflows pushed up aluminum prices. However, short - term capital overheating and the seasonal off - season in consumption led to large price fluctuations. Investors were advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [8][9]. Alumina - The main futures contract closed at 2811 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The overall strength of the aluminum sector improved the market sentiment of alumina. The supply pressure was slightly relieved due to factory maintenance. It was expected to rebound in the short term, but the upward space was limited [10]. Cast Aluminum - The main futures contract closed at 23,785 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The rapid rise of primary aluminum drove up the price of cast aluminum futures. The supply of scrap aluminum decreased, and the cost support increased. It was expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and slightly stronger. The market risk preference remained high, and rising natural gas prices and low processing fees supported zinc prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but there was a risk of correction [12][13]. Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract was in a narrow - range shock. Due to heavy pollution and losses, smelters' production cuts increased, but the terminal consumption was weak, and social inventories increased. It was expected to consolidate at the integer - level mark [14][15]. Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract was in a sideways shock. The impact of Indonesia's expected increase in the minimum tin ore purchase price was limited. The raw material supply was tight, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile at a high level [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Steel mills' maintenance increased, and the supply pressure decreased. The demand was weak, and the market entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It was expected to remain volatile at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [17][18]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures were under pressure. The implementation of the steel export license policy might lead to a 15% - 20% decline in steel exports in the first quarter of 2026. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be under pressure [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The first round of coke price hikes was basically implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was repaired. The supply of coke decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand was weak. It was expected to be volatile in the short term [20]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures were stronger. The dry and hot weather in Argentina affected crop growth, and the domestic pre - holiday stocking and declining inventories supported prices. It was expected to be volatile and stronger [21][22]. Palm Oil - Palm oil futures were slightly stronger. The Fed paused interest - rate cuts, and rising oil prices and the expected decrease in palm oil production and increase in demand supported palm oil prices. It was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [23][24]. Metal Trading Data - The report provided the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., on the previous trading day [25]. Industrial Data - The report presented detailed industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including prices, inventories, spreads, etc. [26][28][29][30][31]

鲍威尔表示，过去一年关税上涨对消费价格的影响已基本传导完毕，"我们预计，关税对商品价格的影 响将达到峰值，然后开始下降，前提是没有新的重大关税上调措施出台，这也是我们预计今年将会看到 的情况。"他表示，美国今年通胀表现大致符合预期，但就任何进一步宽松政策的时间或节奏而言，美 联储还没有做出任何决定。 鲍威尔还表示，他和美联储其他官员致力于维护美联储的独立性。他还对上周出席最高法院的口头辩论 表示，此案"或许是美联储113年历史上最重要的法律案件"，"我仔细考虑后认为，如果我不出席，可能 很难解释清楚原因。" 此外，美国财长贝森特当天表示，美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席人选可能在一周左右内揭晓。 特朗普：将很快宣布新的美联储主席人选 当地时间1月27日，美国总统特朗普在爱荷华州公开讲话中再次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其是"一位糟 糕的美联储主席"。 当地时间1月28日下午2点（北京时间1月29日凌晨3点），美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间保持在3.5%至3.75%不变，该利率决议符合市场预期。 美联储决议公布后，美元指数大幅拉升，日内一度大涨超1%。美股三大指数波动不大，截至收盘，道 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts[2] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicate initial stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent high inflation, with a commitment to achieving maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2%[2] Market Performance - As of January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57%[4] - Market turnover reached 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 708 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating sustained market activity[4] Securities Firms - Over ten listed securities firms have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with many showing a year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%[3] - The growth is attributed to a rebound in capital market activity, boosting core business areas such as brokerage, investment banking, and wealth management[3] Bond and Currency Markets - The yield on 10-year government bonds is reported at 1.822%, down by 0.62 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.548%, down by 3.54 basis points[5] - The US dollar index strengthened to 96.35, with the offshore RMB trading at 6.9434 against the dollar, indicating pressure on the yuan[6] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led gains with an increase of nearly 6%, followed by resource stocks like oil and coal[4] - In contrast, sectors such as electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals experienced notable declines[4]

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 正文 美联储 2026 年 1 月 27-28 日举行议息会议 ， FOMC 官员投票保持联邦基金利率在 3.5%-3.75% ，这 是自 2025 年 9 月重启降息后的第一次暂停。理事沃勒和米兰投反对票，倾向于在此次会议上降息 25 个基 点。本次议息会议决议在市场预期之内，相对更为重要的信息是：（ 1 ）美联储对后续货币政策路径的表 态；（ 2 ）美联储对就业市场和通胀的评估。 2022 年 3 月、 5 月、 6 月、 7 月、 9 月、 11 月、 12 月以及 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月美 联储先后十一次上调基准利率。其中 2022 年 3 月加息幅度为 25bp ， 5 月为 50bp ， 6 月 -11 月每次 加息 75bp ， 12 月为 50bp ， 2023 年 2 月、 3 月、 5 月、 7 月为 25bp ； 6 月为首次暂停加息， 9 月为第二次暂停， 11 月为第三次暂停， 12 月为第四次暂停， 2024 年 1 月为第五次暂停， 3 月为第六 次暂停， 5 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美联储释放耐心信号 股指：美联储如期暂停降息，对 A 股影响有限 【市场资讯】1）国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 长 16.1%。2）美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话。鲍威 尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任者远离政治。3）加拿 大央行宣布维持 2.25%基准利率不变。4）贝森特：特朗普可能在可能在一周公布美联储主 席人选。5）巴西央行将利率维持在 15%不变，表示将在下次会议上开始降息。6）加纳央 行行长：加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取外汇。7）特朗普表达不担忧美元走弱后，贝 森特表示，美国长期奉行强势美元政策，还称绝对没有干预日元。8）特朗普警告对伊朗下 一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗常驻联合国代表团回应称，伊方愿在相互尊 重基础上与美对话。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 过渡阶段。海外方面，美联储最新 FOMC 议息会议维 ...