国信期货研究 Page 1 主要结论 焦煤焦炭：需求边际回升 短线反弹 宏观面，人民银行发布一季度金融数据显示，2025 年一季度整体社融增量 由政府债券支持，显示目前私人部门需求仍相对疲软，4 月开始我国面临更加复 杂的发布环境的背景下，政府加杠杆仍将在大类资产价格表现中发挥重要作用。 居民端信贷，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元，短贷少增 67 亿元，中长期贷款有 所回升，但短期消费需求有待修复。从价格表现来看，春节之后，市场整体表现 疲弱，我们将延续上一期报告的观点："价格压力持续存在"。相较于 CPI 部分分 项的积极变化，3 月份，PPI 环比、同比跌幅均有扩大。总体来看，工业品出厂 价格下行压力比居民消费价格压力更甚。 海外宏观，4 月以来，伴随特朗普政府对关税的不断加码，中美两方制裁与 反制措施的不断升级，截至目前，白宫确认，美国对中国关税总税率为 145%中 方宣布自 4 月 12 日起将对美加征关税由 84%提升到 125%。当地时间 4 月 17 日， 美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他不想继续提高对中国的关税了，因为这可能会使 两国之间的贸易陷入停滞。特朗普政府的反复使得海外局势不确定性增加， ...

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）突破94000美元关口后，比特币再度回落。4月24日，全球币价网站CoinGecko数据显示，在历经了前一日的猛涨之后，全网市值排 名前十的加密货币全线下跌。其中，比特币跌破92000美元，瑞波币、狗狗币跌幅靠前，均超过6%。 在市场多则消息刺激下，比特币价格昨日一度突破94000美元，达到3月初以来的最高交易水平，日内最高涨幅接近5%。同期加密货币市场多数走高。较大 幅度的涨幅也加剧了爆仓风险，Coinglass数据显示，4月23日，加密货币市场共有超16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额为3.71亿美元，其中超过2亿美元为空单爆 仓。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普发行的Meme币Trump（即"特朗普币"）官方网站在当地时间周三宣布，特朗普将于5月22日在华盛顿附近高尔夫俱乐部邀请持币 量最大的220名持有者共进晚餐，并宣称有机会聆听特朗普谈论关于加密货币的未来。不仅如此，持币量前25名的投资者还将获特朗普私人接待以及参观白 宫等"特别版"Vip之旅。 消息一经发出，迅速推高了"特朗普币"的价格，涨幅一度超过40%，也带动了比特币等加密货币走高。在中国通信工业协会区块链专委会共同主席于佳宁看 来， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, etc. The overall market is affected by factors such as Trump's statement on tariff reduction, Fed's economic "Beige Book", and supply - demand fundamentals of different commodities. Suggestions for different products range from trading strategies like selling out - of - the - money put options, to long - short strategies and interval operations [2][3][5]. Summary according to the Table of Contents Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain is picking up, and the trading sentiment of the index has risen. Although most of the four major stock index futures contracts fell, the A - share market may trade on the potential incremental stimulus policies from the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the MLF roll - over. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may rise after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Suggested strategies include interval operations, positive spread arbitrage for TS contracts, and steepening the yield curve [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices showed a differentiated trend. Gold continued to correct, while silver strengthened due to its industrial properties. In the long - term, gold still has upward momentum, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver is expected to fluctuate in the range of $32 - 34. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver lightly [9][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **SCFIS**: The spot prices of some leading shipping companies have adjusted, and the shipping index has shown different trends. The market expects the supply - demand situation to improve in May, and the news of tariff reduction may boost the market. It is recommended to take a long position and consider widening the spread between August and June contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has increased, and the supply of copper mines is tight. The demand side is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 76,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [14][17][18]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc has increased, and the supply of zinc mines is abundant. The demand side is weak after the peak season. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach in the medium - long term [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: The supply side is gradually recovering, and the demand side is uncertain. It is recommended to hold short positions on rebounds, with the short - term view of high - level fluctuations [21][22][23]. - **Nickel**: The market sentiment is stable, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The cost has a certain support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [24][25][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market sentiment has recovered, but the fundamentals still have pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [27][28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is general. The inventory is high. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 66,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [30][31][33]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The peak of apparent demand has passed, and the cold - hot spread is narrowing. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to weaken in the second quarter. The inventory has decreased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the support at the previous low for the long - steel short - ore strategy [34][35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rebounded due to macro factors. The iron water output is high, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [37][38]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the second round may be proposed this week. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [39][40][41]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has weakened again, and the inventory is high. The price may still fall. It is recommended to use arbitrage strategies and continue to hold the long - coke short - coking coal strategy [42][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The price has decreased compared with the previous period. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [45][46][47]. - **Manganese Silico - manganese**: The steel procurement price has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has also decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, while the US soybean lacks upward momentum. The Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. It is recommended to close short positions and consider long - term long positions at low prices [52][53][54]. - **Pigs**: The consumption support is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of second - round fattening pigs' sales. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,800 yuan/ton [55][56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price is stable and strong. The supply is tightening in the long - term, but the short - term increase is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [58]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price maintains a high - level shock. The market expects an increase in production in the 25/26 season, which will suppress the price in the long - term [59]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic demand has no obvious increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and macro factors [61].

Revenue Insights - The fiscal revenue growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 is -1.1%, showing an improvement from the previous decline, primarily due to the accelerated recovery of the economic fundamentals[3] - Total public budget revenue reached 6.02 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 27.4%, indicating a neutral to fast performance over five years[11] - Tax revenue growth rate is -3.5%, but the decline has narrowed, while non-tax revenue growth is 8.8%, showing a decrease from previous values[15] Expenditure Insights - Public budget expenditure growth rate for the first quarter is 4.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, with a completion rate of 24.52%[4] - Central government expenditure growth is at 8.9%, while local government expenditure growth is 3.6%, indicating a significant focus on central spending[4] - Social security and employment expenditure growth reached 7.9%, while infrastructure spending remains low, indicating a need for increased investment in this area[48] Fund Revenue and Debt Insights - Land transfer revenue growth is -15.9%, reflecting a continued downturn in the real estate market, which negatively impacts government fund revenue, recorded at -11%[73] - The issuance progress of new special bonds by local governments is slow, with a completion rate of 21.8%[73] - The government plans to increase the total new debt scale by 2.9 trillion yuan in 2025, with measures including raising the deficit scale and issuing special bonds[5] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive in response to external shocks, particularly due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration[5] - Continued fiscal spending is anticipated to support macroeconomic recovery as the government aims to accelerate expenditure and expand special bonds[81]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2656 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年一季度全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1% 2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 按消费类型分，3月份，商品零售额36705亿元，同比增长5.9%；餐饮收入4235亿元，增长5.6%。1— 3月份，商品零售额110644亿元，增长4.6%；餐饮收入14027亿元，增长4.7%。 按零售业态分，1—3月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长9.9%、4.6%、1.2%、6.7%、1.4%。 79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%， 汽车制造 业为71.9% ，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 (来源:国家统计局 ) 2025年3月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.9% 3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增长5.9%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿 元，增长6.0%。 1—3月份，社会消费品零售 ...

美联储古尔斯比表示，美联储需要着眼于全年局势的发展，关税政策只是其中一个因素；关税对宏观经 济的影响可能有限。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily growing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, the risks caused by export trade obstacles due to the cancellation of domestic aluminum product tax rebates and overseas tariff increases should not be ignored. It is also recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 19,645 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,828 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 2,802 hands to 218,124 hands; the main contract positions of alumina decreased by 13,102 hands to 100,589 hands [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants decreased by 4,825 tons to 185,050 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,350 tons to 436,975 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 19,800 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 12 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month was 747.52 tons, down 3.23 tons; the national alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 647.02 tons, down 64.53 tons [2]. - The national alumina export volume in the month was 21 tons, up 1 ton; the import volume was 4.17 tons, up 0.58 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 67.10 tons, down 2.60 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,517.20 tons, unchanged [2]. - The national primary aluminum import volume in the month was 200,200.39 tons, up 38,792.39 tons; the export volume was 3,426.54 tons, down 4,973.02 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national aluminum product production in the month was 598.17 tons, down 12.49 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.60 tons, up 13.60 tons [2]. - The national aluminum alloy production in the month was 155.20 tons, up 10.20 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.75 tons, down 0.06 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 18.33%, up 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.09%, up 0.07% [2]. - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV was 13.1%, up 0.0026; the option call - put ratio was 0.81, down 0.0232 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, US retail sales increased by 1.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 1.3% [2]. - China's GDP in the first quarter was 318,758 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [2]. - From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 199.04 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract showed an oscillating trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis [2]. - The supply of alumina may slightly converge, and the demand is expected to grow steadily [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed an oscillatingly stronger trend, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is steadily increasing, and the demand is also boosted, but export trade risks should be noted [2].

国家统计局4月16日公布的数据显示，初步核算，2025年一季度国内生产总值318758亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.4%，环比增长1.2%。具体从生产看，一季度全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点。一季度服务业增加值同比增长5.3%，比上年全年加快0.3个百分 点。从需求看，一季度社会消费品零售总额124671亿元，同比增长4.6%，比上年全年加快1.1个百分 点。 谈及物价形势，盛来运强调，要全面准确地看待当前物价低位运行的态势。这两年，无论是CPI还是PPI 都在低位运行，既有国内外宏观经济形势复杂变化的因素，也有中国经济处于转型发展阶段、新旧动能 转换带来的影响。相关产业的调整会对相关产品价格带来一系列影响，要全面客观看待近期价格的低位 运行，中国价格的波动运行具有明显的阶段性和结构性特点。"随着经济回升、总需求回暖，促进价格 合理回升的政策效应将继续显现。"他说。 恒泰期货首席经济学家魏刚在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，一季度国内经济数据呈现多个亮点，一是 GDP表现超预期，经济硬数据与好于季节性的软数据PMI相互印证，反映出国内经济开始温和复苏。二 是从3月看， ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.01%, up 0.39% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 83.3%, a slight increase of 0.15%[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 77.57%, down 2.91% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 46,200,000 CNY, a significant increase of 125.1% compared to the previous week[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 67,404.15 units, down 3.0% from the previous week[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 81,192.05 units, a decline of 3.1%[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities dropped to 146.05 million square meters, down 12.65% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities decreased to 4.24%, down 8.34% from the previous week[7] - Excavator sales increased to 19,517 units, a rise of 67.7% compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,394.68, an increase of 0.14%[8] - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.79 CNY/kg, down 0.19% from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a decline, indicating weak price performance[8] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume decreased to 878.62 million trips, down 12.5% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights increased to 12,526.57, up 0.45% from the previous week[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index remained stable at 1,048.96, a slight increase of 0.36%[8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily increasing demand, and the electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 19,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased by 2,175 tons to 190,700 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 19,680 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Upstream Situation**: Alumina production decreased by 4.92 tons to 750.75 tons, and the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 64.53 tons to 647.02 tons. The export of alumina increased by 1.00 tons to 21.00 tons, and the import increased by 0.58 tons to 4.17 tons [2] - **Industry Situation**: The import of primary aluminum increased by 38,792.39 tons to 200,200.39 tons, and the export decreased by 4,973.02 tons to 3,426.54 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,517.20 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate increased by 0.13% to 97.50% [2] - **Downstream and Application**: The output of aluminum products increased by 17.91 tons to 610.66 tons, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 13.60 tons to 50.60 tons. The output of automobiles increased by 5.10 million to 349.86 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index increased by 0.45 to 93.80 [2] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 18.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02% to 14.02%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0193% to 12.86%, and the option call - put ratio increased by 0.0069 to 0.85 [2] 2. Industry News - China's foreign trade had a stable start in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Hainan plans to allocate over 10 billion yuan from 2025 - 2027 to boost consumption. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation has substantially ended [2] - OPEC lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3%, and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%. Goldman Sachs expects a surplus of 580,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2025 [2] 3. Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material supply pressure is gradually released, the supply may slightly converge, and the demand is steadily increasing. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [3] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract oscillates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both increasing, but there are risks in export trade. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [4]