Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a marginal improvement in consumer prices due to consumption-boosting policies [1][4] - Food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI increase, while energy prices fell by 6.1%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.47 percentage points [4][5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [5][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In May, the PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [1][7] - The decline in PPI is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and international input factors affecting domestic prices, particularly in the oil and gas sectors [7][9] - Certain industries, such as arts and crafts, footwear, and computer manufacturing, saw price increases, indicating a recovery in some sectors driven by consumer demand [7][9]

Group 1 - In May, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, indicating a worsening trend compared to the previous month [1][2] - The decline in PPI was significantly influenced by international factors, particularly the drop in international crude oil prices, which led to price decreases in the petroleum-related industries, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the overall PPI decline [1] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors showed signs of improvement due to enhanced macroeconomic policies and better supply-demand relationships, with certain prices beginning to recover [1] Group 2 - Consumer-related policies have positively impacted demand, leading to a stabilization in the prices of daily necessities, with clothing, general daily goods, and durable consumer goods experiencing slight price increases [2] - Specific industries such as arts and crafts, washing machine manufacturing, television manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing saw year-on-year price changes, with notable increases in the price of arts and crafts products by 12.8% [2] - The transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development is progressing steadily, with high-tech product demand driving price increases in sectors like integrated circuit packaging, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices [2]

Core Insights - The core CPI shows improvement year-on-year, while the PPI continues to expand its year-on-year decline. In May, the CPI decreased month-on-month, but the core CPI's year-on-year growth rate increased. The PPI's month-on-month decline remained stable, with a year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points, both influenced by fluctuations in international energy prices [1][3]. CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month. The core CPI recorded a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month. The CPI's year-on-year growth was affected by a tail effect contributing approximately -0.2 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.1 percentage points [5][11]. - Food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year, with fresh fruits, pork, and seafood prices rising, collectively impacting the CPI by 0.21 percentage points. Conversely, fresh vegetables and egg prices decreased, affecting the CPI by -0.19 percentage points. Non-food prices remained stable compared to last month [5][8]. - Energy prices decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.7% month-on-month, impacting the CPI's year-on-year decline by approximately 0.47 percentage points. However, some sectors showed positive price changes, such as gold jewelry and household textiles, which increased by 40.1% and 1.9%, respectively [5][8]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline recorded -3.3% in May, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The tail effect contributed approximately -1.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about -1.5 percentage points. The production materials price decreased by -4.0% year-on-year, while the living materials price decreased by -1.4% [11][13]. - Major industries such as coal mining (-18.2%), oil and gas extraction (-17.3%), and kerosene processing (-14.7%) experienced significant price declines. However, prices in sectors like washing machine manufacturing and automobile manufacturing saw a reduction in their decline rates compared to last month [11][13]. - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, with production materials prices decreasing by 0.6%. The oil and gas extraction industry saw a price drop of 5.6%, while refined petroleum products and chemical industries also experienced declines [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the increase in the core CPI, indicating a mixed economic environment with ongoing adjustments in consumer prices [2][4]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][4]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with the decline in PPI year-on-year widening by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2 - The decrease in CPI was primarily influenced by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total decline in CPI [3][4]. - Food prices saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, with seasonal factors affecting the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, and meat, while some fruits and fish experienced price increases due to supply constraints [3][4]. - The increase in consumer demand, driven by holiday activities and entertainment, led to a rise in hotel accommodation and tourism prices, with hotel prices reaching a near ten-year high [3][4]. Group 3 - The PPI's decline was significantly impacted by international factors, particularly the decrease in global oil prices, which affected domestic oil-related industries [6]. - Domestic energy and raw material prices also saw a seasonal decline, with coal prices dropping due to sufficient supply and low demand [6]. - Despite the overall decline in PPI, some sectors showed signs of improvement, with macroeconomic policies enhancing supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5][6]. Group 4 - The article notes that new consumption drivers are emerging, leading to a recovery in prices for daily necessities, with life goods prices stabilizing after a previous decline [7]. - High-end manufacturing and technological advancements are contributing to price increases in related industries, with significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and aerospace manufacturing [7][8]. - The renewable energy sector, including solar and lithium battery industries, is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, resulting in a narrowing of price declines [8].

Inflation Data Summary - In May, China's CPI year-on-year remained stable at -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month[2] - The core CPI in May increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a mild upward trend[4] - The PPI in May saw a year-on-year decline of 3.3%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to April[2][17] Price Trends - Food CPI in May decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The PPI for production materials dropped by 4.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.9 percentage points[17] - The overall CPI in May was slightly above seasonal levels, driven primarily by food prices, while PPI remained in negative growth, reflecting weak industrial prices[6][22] Future Projections - For June, the CPI is expected to return to positive growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 0.1%[3][27] - The forecast for June indicates a food price increase of approximately 0.5% month-on-month, while non-food prices are expected to decrease by 0.1%[27] - The PPI for June is anticipated to remain at -3.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of about -0.2%[27]

6月9日，国家统计局发布数据显示，5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降 0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。 5月份"CPI-PPI"同比剪刀差扩大，反映出工业部门需求不济的情况有所加剧，但企业数据也反映部分行业供需关系有所改善，结构性特征更加明显，如宾馆住宿价 格环比涨幅创近十年同期新高、光伏、锂电等新能源行业供需关系有所改善。 市场机构分析认为，5月CPI环比由涨转降，持平于历史同期平均水平，而从PPI来看，输入性价格下行压力依然偏大。 能源价格影响拖累CPI表现 自3月以来，CPI连续三个月同比降幅为0.1%，环比看，5月CPI由涨转降。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟介绍，能源价格是拖累CPI同比和环比表现的主要因素。从同比看，5月份能源价格同比下降6.1%，降幅比上月扩大1.3个百分 点，影响CPI同比下降约0.47个百分点。从环比看，能源价格下降1.7%，影响CPI环比下降约0.13个百分点，占CPI总降幅近七成。 而对CPI形成支撑的因素则是提振消费相关政策持续显效。同比看，扣除能源的 ...

2025 年 06 月 09 日 核心 CPI 连续两月超季节性 宏观研究团队 宏 观 经 济 点 评 相关研究报告 《 美国就业市场仍有隐忧—美国 5月 非农就业数据点评》-2025.6.7 《美国关税战出现反复—宏观周报》 -2025.6.2 《PMI 小幅改善，关税或有反复—兼 评 5 月 PMI 数据》-2025.6.1 宏观经济点评 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 事件：5 月 CPI 同比-0.1%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.1%；PPI 同比-3.3%，预期-3.2%， 前值-2.7%。 旅游、医疗服务带动服务 CPI 超季节性。5 月服务 CPI 环比超季节性 0.03 个百 分点，其中旅游、医疗服务价格环比明显超季节性。此外，其他用品及服务项超 季节性 0.48 个百分点，或指向 5 月贵金属饰品的价格上升仍是核心 CPI 回升的 重要原因，但较 4 月支撑作用明显降低，表明从边际上看，核心消费价格有所回 暖。 PPI 同比回落，能源、黑色 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.1%[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI fell by 0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.1%[1] - Core CPI remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year, widening from a previous decline of 2.7%[2] - Energy prices, particularly crude oil, significantly impacted the PPI, with oil extraction prices down by 5.6% and refined oil product prices down by 3.5%[3] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.1%, indicating weak demand and limited PPI improvement potential[2] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 5.9% and 0.7%, respectively[6] - Non-food prices also decreased by 0.2%, influenced by a 3.8% drop in gasoline prices[7] - Hotel accommodation and travel prices rose by 4.6% and 0.8%, respectively, with hotel prices reaching a ten-year high for this period[6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall supply of pork is expected to remain sufficient in June, with demand still in a seasonal lull[10] - The global grain production forecast for 2025/2026 is expected to reach a record high, stabilizing food prices[27] - Consumer confidence remains cautious, impacting spending and limiting core CPI recovery potential[25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will boost market risk appetite and help the stock index futures oscillate upward in the short term. However, the decline in import and export growth rates in May, the year-on-year and month-on-month decline in CPI, and the larger decline in PPI compared to the previous period will, to some extent, suppress the short-term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On June 9, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly higher. IF2506 encountered resistance after rising and oscillated slightly stronger; IH2506 rebounded and then fell back, slightly declining; IC2506 and IM2506 also encountered resistance after rising and slightly increased [2]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month. In May, exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously [2]. Macro and Stock Market News - Politburo member and Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [4]. - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and 3.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to last month [4]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, exports (in RMB) increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.3% previously; imports decreased by 2.1%, compared to a 0.8% increase previously; the trade surplus was 743.56 billion yuan. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% previously; imports decreased by 3.4%, compared to a 0.2% decline previously; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars [6]. - China approves a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports and will continue to strengthen the review of compliant applications, and is willing to strengthen communication and dialogue on export control with relevant countries [6]. - At the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserve scale was 3285.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.6 billion US dollars from the end of April. The gold reserve was 73.83 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive month of increase [7]. - Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis held talks in Paris, discussing issues such as the EU's anti - subsidy case on Chinese electric vehicles, China's anti - dumping case on EU brandy, and export control. The price commitment negotiation for the China - EU electric vehicle case is in the final stage [7]. - US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point. Recently, global central banks have started a wave of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on June 5, the Indian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% on June 6, and the Russian central bank cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20% on the same day [8]. - In May, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 139,000 (the previous value was revised down to 147,000), higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The US resumed visa processing for international students at Harvard University. Four major overseas giants, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are bullish on China [8][9]. - On June 9, the A - share market oscillated and climbed. The ChiNext Index was strong, and innovative drug concept stocks led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% at the mid - day session to 3393.26 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.62%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%, the North Star 50 rose 1.08%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 0.55%, the Wind All - A rose 0.63%, the Wind A500 rose 0.31%, the CSI A500 rose 0.32%, and the half - day trading volume of A - shares was 838.618 billion yuan [9]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - It is expected that IF2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 3879 and 3890 points, with 3890 points being a strong resistance. The support levels are at 3855 and 3848 points, with 3848 points being a strong short - term support [3][10]. - It is expected that IH2506 will likely oscillate and consolidate during the day, with resistance levels at 2689 and 2699 points, and 2699 points being a relatively strong resistance. The support levels are at 2664 and 2653 points, with 2653 points being a relatively strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IC2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 5817 and 5850 points, with 5850 points being a strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 5725 and 5708 points, with 5708 points being a strong support [3][12]. - It is expected that IM2506 will likely oscillate stronger during the day, attacking resistance levels at 6200 and 6250 points, with 6250 points being a relatively strong short - term resistance. The support levels are at 6100 and 6077 points, with 6077 points being a strong support [3][13]. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IF in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 3933 and 3983 points, and support levels at 3750 and 3675 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IH in June 2025 will likely oscillate stronger, with resistance levels at 2750 and 2766 points, and support levels at 2600 and 2572 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IC in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 5853 and 5962 points, and support levels at 5508 and 5434 points. - It is expected that the main contract of stock index futures IM in June 2025 will likely oscillate strongly and widely, with resistance levels at 6332 and 6505 points, and support levels at 5844 and 5757 points [13][14].

新华财经北京6月9日电（记者安娜）5月份，随着我国促消费扩内需各项政策持续显效，价格呈现积极 变化，特别是核心CPI同比涨幅升至近一年最高点。 国家统计局9日发布的数据显示，5月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，同比下降 0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。 "5月份，受季节性因素和油价下行影响，我国CPI延续低位运行态势，环比由涨转降，同比降幅持平于 上月。但在各项宏观政策协同发力下，供需结构有所改善，部分行业价格呈现积极变化，核心CPI同比 涨幅扩大，国内经济韧性凸显。"中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示。 除了核心CPI向好之外，5月份我国价格领域还有不少积极变化。据国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉 娟介绍，5月份，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点；金饰品、家 用纺织品和文娱耐用消费品价格分别同比上涨40.1%、1.9%和1.8%，涨幅均有扩大；燃油小汽车和新能 源小汽车价格虽然分别同比下降4.2%和2.8%，但降幅均有收窄。同期，服务价格同比上涨0.5%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.2个百分点。服务中，交通 ...