Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing tensions between the US and China regarding trade policies, with US officials expressing fear over the impact of tariffs on American businesses and the economy [1][3] - US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick acknowledged the pain caused by tariffs, indicating that both he and President Trump are concerned about the economic repercussions, yet they believe the trade battle is necessary [1] - The US economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported 0.3% decline in GDP for Q1 2025, attributed to worsening net exports and reduced federal spending, indicating that the trade war is adversely affecting domestic economic growth [3] Group 2 - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials suggest a willingness to maintain dialogue and cooperation, with both sides recognizing the importance of their bilateral economic relationship [5] - The establishment of a regular communication mechanism for trade discussions indicates a move towards institutionalizing negotiations, which could enhance communication efficiency and reduce the risk of misjudgments [5] - Despite the appearance of progress, underlying tensions remain, as President Trump has been pressured to make concessions on tariffs, reflecting the significant influence of the Chinese economy on the US [7]

谁还记得，这是特朗普开打贸易战以来的第几次妥协了？ 英国首相温斯顿·丘吉尔在1946年提出的"欧洲联合"构想，便是最早的理论基础，旨在促进欧洲各国团 结一致，共同建设一个和平、稳定的欧洲。 可还不等欧洲国家抱团，美国就先横插一脚，于1949年搞起了北大西洋公约组织，于是，就在这样的军 事联盟中，欧洲各国率先在防务领域展开了合作。 5月23日，在特朗普的诉求下，日本首相石破茂与白宫进行了关税战以来的首次通电，传达了要求重新 评估关税措施的立场。 仅仅两天后的25日，特朗普就又与欧盟进行了"非常愉快"的谈话，并达成协议，将关税谈判期限延长至 7月9日。 要知道，就在23日，特朗普还在社交媒体上发文宣称"美欧谈判毫无进展"，并扬言"欧盟成立是为了在 贸易上占美国的便宜"。 毫无疑问，这一出"左右手互博"的大戏，再次向我们展现了特朗普的喜怒无常，但"反复打脸自己"显然 不合符美国的形象，类似闹剧的背后，往往都牵连着更深的利益诉求…… 抱团的联盟 二战结束后，欧洲各国在废墟上寻找重建的道路，战争带来的深重创伤促使一些欧洲国家开始思考如何 避免再次爆发世界大战规模的战争，由此，欧洲一体化的思想开始萌芽。 但北约的成立加剧 ...

Group 1 - Mitsui O.S.K. Lines is seeking assistance from the Japanese government after the EU unexpectedly sanctioned three of its LNG carriers involved in Russian projects [1] - The three vessels, "North Moon," "North Light," and "North Ocean," were included in the EU's latest sanctions list as part of efforts to promote peace between Russia and Ukraine [1] - The CEO expressed dissatisfaction with the sanctions, noting that the vessels had recently transported cargo from the Yamal LNG project, which was previously considered unsanctioned [1] Group 2 - The company experienced a surge in demand for transporting various goods, including automobiles, prior to the tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, followed by a decline in April, but demand has been strong since May due to easing trade tensions [1] - The CEO anticipates continued strong demand in May and June, but expects a gradual decline in Japan's automotive exports to North America in the medium to long term, suggesting a shift towards local production in the U.S. [2] - The company recognizes the need to change its business distribution model away from being Japan-centric [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing complexities in US-China relations have escalated, particularly highlighted by recent events that reflect a shift from negotiation to a more confrontational stance in trade discussions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo acknowledged fears among US officials regarding the impact of tariffs on American businesses during the trade war, indicating a significant shift in the administration's stance [1]. - Following high-level talks in Geneva, the US reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China lowered tariffs from 125% to 10%, demonstrating a mutual concession despite ongoing inflationary pressures in the US [1][5]. - The US has faced rapid price increases, leading to public dissatisfaction with tariff policies, which has further complicated the trade landscape [1]. Group 2: Diplomatic Communications - Recent communications between US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu emphasized the importance of maintaining dialogue, reflecting a strategic necessity amid rising tensions [3]. - China's firm stance against US expectations for a quick resolution indicates a shift towards a more competitive and confrontational approach in trade negotiations [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The US's fluctuating strategy under the Trump administration, including threats of increased tariffs and restrictions on Chinese technology, highlights the ongoing struggle for dominance in the global market [5][7]. - Analysts suggest that the US's attempts to pressure China through tariffs and technology restrictions are increasingly challenged by China's robust industrial capabilities and large domestic market [5][7]. - The current state of US-China relations may lead to a phase of "competitive coexistence," where structural conflicts persist but the intensity of confrontations could be managed [7].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-橡胶】供应方面：泰国原料胶水价格62.75泰铢/公 斤，杯胶价格52.8泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/ 吨，制浓乳胶价格14100元/吨；ANRPC最新发布的2025年4月报 告预测，4月全球天胶产量料降1.4%至76.7万吨，较上月下降 3.9%；泰国前4个月天然橡胶、混合胶合计出口157.3万吨，同 比增13.5%；合计出口中国100.5万吨，同比增38%。评：橡胶阶 段性原料抗跌，原因是泰国延迟开割，近期东南亚雨水较多， 也影响了开割进度，我国上周去库。预期弱，下游消费表现为 轮胎开工率虽然环比上升，个别企业为控制库存增长，排产小 幅下调，限制了整体产能利用率提升幅度，周内企业出货表现 未见明显好转，全、半钢胎库存延续增势。震荡偏弱思路。 【短评-白银】明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于 贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性，宽松政 策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决 策。评：美联储官员认为未来降息依然充满不确定性。美元指 数走低，利多黄金，避险情绪再度升温，基本面利空白银。白 银中期宽幅震荡思路为宜。关注白银与黄金是否走 ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 据券商中国援引彭博社报道，北京时间5月26日晚间，欧盟计划"快速推进"与美国的贸易谈判，以避免跨大西洋"贸易战"，这表明双方将采取更加友好的态 度。就在几天前，特朗普刚刚批评欧盟拖延谈判进程。 欧盟发言人表示，在与美国的谈判中，欧盟提出的"零关税对零关税"提案仍在谈判桌上；据悉欧盟已计划加快与美国的谈判。关税消息是谈谈打打，打打谈 谈，市场则上蹿下跳！ 伊朗表示，已做好适当打击以色列的充分准备。不会接受暂停铀浓缩以确保与美国达成核协议的做法。 西方不再克制，德国总理默茨表示，西方国家已取消援助乌克兰武器的射程限制。 昨日俄罗斯总统普京视察库尔斯克，遭乌克兰无人机群打击，俄乌谈判难有进展。 上述个人观点，仅供参考！ 白银，不做解读，跟随黄金操作！ 美股期货，整体符合预期，当前高位震荡，且当前已经遇阻；随时可能展开下跌，5月16日已经做空；上周五下跌后反弹，关注冲高再跌。所以，持有手里 空单，预计还会有反复，接下来继续高空为主，一张多单也不要做，日内短线除外！标普短期阻力5890区域，然后59 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The short - term gold price lacks direct upward momentum and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while the mid - and long - term logic needs more catalysts [10]. - The US may increase sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles, and the gap between high risk appetite and a fragile structure is widening [3]. - The risk of repeated changes in US tariff policies remains, and the US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - The inventory of agricultural products such as soybean meal is expected to continue to increase, and the oil market is expected to remain volatile [22][26]. - The prices of black metals are affected by factors such as policy and demand, showing different trends, and caution is needed in short - term operations [29][31]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals are supported by a weak US dollar, but the upward space is limited, and different investment strategies are recommended for different varieties [37]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policies, with different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [55][70]. - The container shipping index is affected by port congestion and other factors, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - EU - US negotiations continue. Due to the US Memorial Day holiday, trading was light. Trump postponed the tariff threat, and market risk - aversion eased. Gold continued to fluctuate. In the short term, the gold price lacks upward momentum, and in the medium and long term, more catalysts are needed [10]. - Investment advice: The short - term gold price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Lagarde said the euro could replace the US dollar. The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. Trump considers additional sanctions on Russia, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end soon. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Central Huijin emphasizes its role in maintaining financial stability. Moody's maintains China's sovereign credit rating. The A - share market continues to shrink in volume, with a seesaw effect between small - cap and large - cap styles [15][17][18]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US. The US stock market is affected by tariff and government debt issues and is expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to concerns about government debt and tariff disturbances [20]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal continues to rise. As the arrival of imported soybeans increases, the supply pressure dominates, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [21][22]. - Investment advice: The futures price will temporarily remain volatile, and the spot basis will be under pressure [23]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From May 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 7.34% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.73%. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased. The oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25][26]. - Investment advice: The oil market will continue to fluctuate. Rapeseed oil is suitable for long - term allocation, soybean oil for short - term allocation, and palm oil for medium - term allocation [26]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The proposed use of special land - reserve bonds exceeds 350 billion yuan. The new contracts signed by the top five construction central enterprises in the first four months totaled about 2.4 trillion yuan. Steel prices have fallen significantly, and short - term unilateral operations require caution [27][28][29]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on rallies for spot [30]. 2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port was weakly stable. Coal prices are expected to stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later due to high supply and low expected summer consumption growth [31]. - Investment advice: Coal prices may stop falling in the short term but will continue to decline later [31]. 2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project is postponed. Iron ore prices are following the weak trend of the overall black market, and the overall price is expected to remain weak [32]. - Investment advice: The overall price of iron ore is expected to remain weak [34]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper decreased, and the social inventory continued to decline. The COMEX copper net long position continued to decline. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [35][36][37]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the copper price is likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral and arbitrage operations [38]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated is a candidate for a 22MW photovoltaic cell component procurement project. The spot price of polysilicon has fallen slightly. Whether leading enterprises can jointly cut production will have a significant impact on the fundamentals [40]. - Investment advice: For ordinary investors, unilateral operations are risky. Consider gradually taking profits on PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 long spreads [41]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicone raw rubber has declined. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The spot price may bottom out, but futures are more affected by sentiment [42]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions, and pay attention to the cash - flow risk of large enterprises [42]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - BYD signed a 3.5GWh energy - storage order. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices. In the short term, the decline space is limited [44]. - Investment advice: The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but in the short term, consider partial profit - taking or contract - rolling for previous short positions [44]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Anhui Lukong and Zhejiang Tianneng signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased significantly. The supply is not expected to be loose in the short term, and the mid - term low - buying idea is emerging [47]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and gradually pay attention to mid - term low - buying opportunities [48]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel warehouse receipt in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The quota issuance of Indonesian RKAB exceeded expectations. The price of nickel ore is supported, but the upward space of nickel - iron is limited [49]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to interval trading opportunities in the short term and mid - term short - selling opportunities [50]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The 0 - 3 spread of LME zinc was at a discount. Peru's zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year. The domestic zinc supply is expected to be loose, and the social inventory may turn upward. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [52]. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies, and consider long - term spreads and long - short positions between domestic and foreign markets [53]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Haikorelin plans to shut down for maintenance, affecting product supply. The Shandong spot price has signs of stabilization, and the propane price may回调. The spot price is expected to stabilize at a low level in the short term [53]. - Investment advice: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [54]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The OPEC+ meeting will be advanced by one day. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production in July, and the supply growth potential continues to pressure oil prices [55]. - Investment advice: The short - term upward momentum is weak [56]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price increased, and the basis strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80% with inventory reduction, so the basis has rebounded [58]. - Investment advice: The short - term PTA performance may be stronger than the cost - end oil price, and the price and spreads are expected to be strong [59]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The demand is recovering, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate upward [60]. - Investment advice: The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate upward [61]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong was stable with a slight increase. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is divided. The current spot is strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and the futures may fluctuate [63]. - Investment advice: The alumina market has little impact on caustic soda. The current spot is strong, but the futures may fluctuate [63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was slightly weak. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to fluctuate [64]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate [65]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder was narrowly sorted, and the futures were weakly volatile. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the market is expected to fluctuate [66]. - Investment advice: The PVC market is expected to fluctuate [66]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable with some slight increases. The industry is operating at a high level, and the supply pressure is increasing. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The central government allocated 1.4 billion yuan for agricultural disaster prevention and pest control. The urea market was weak, and attention should be paid to factors such as demand, policy, and supply - side changes [71]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to aspects such as agricultural demand, policy changes, and supply - side switching after the peak season [72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased significantly. The styrene market was weakly volatile. The supply is expected to improve, and the market may adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [74]. - Investment advice: The far - month styrene has limited driving force, and the market is expected to adjust. Pay attention to the paper - cargo delivery game at the end of the month [75]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased. The futures price of soda ash fell, affected by new production capacity. The short - term maintenance of production facilities may support the price, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium term [76]. - Investment advice: Short - term production - facility maintenance may support the price, but short - sell on rallies in the medium term [76]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The futures price rose slightly, and the spot market was still weak. The price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. - Investment advice: The glass futures price is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [78]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - European ports are congested, and the container shipping index is affected. The US - line rush - shipping expectation has ebbed, and there are opportunities for callback buying [79]. - Investment advice: There are opportunities for callback buying [80].

Core Viewpoint - The chain reaction of increased tariffs in the U.S. is affecting various sectors, leading to higher consumer prices and potential economic strain on American households [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Major Companies - Apple Inc. faces a potential 25% tariff on phones manufactured abroad, which could lead to prices soaring to $2,300 or even $3,500 if produced in the U.S. [2] - The transition of Apple's supply chain to the U.S. is deemed impractical, requiring an estimated $30 billion and 3 to 10 years for full relocation [2][3]. - California's Attorney General is prepared to sue the federal government to protect local companies like Apple from the adverse effects of the tariff policy [2]. Group 2: Broader Retail and Consumer Price Increases - Retailers, including Walmart, have indicated they will pass on tariff costs to consumers, leading to price increases across various product categories, including food, clothing, and toys [3][4]. - The CFO of Walmart stated that the current tariff levels exceed the retailers' capacity to absorb costs, prompting a review of product pricing strategies [3]. - Toy manufacturer Mattel plans to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs, with expectations that 40% to 50% of products will remain under $20 [3]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Effects - Ford Motor Company anticipates a 1.5% increase in vehicle prices in the second half of the year due to tariffs [4]. - Subaru has also indicated that it will raise prices to offset increased costs, although specific figures were not disclosed [4]. Group 4: Small Business Challenges - Small businesses are struggling with rising costs due to tariffs, leading to difficult operational decisions [5][6]. - A restaurant owner reported a 50% increase in the cost of aluminum foil pans, forcing them to consider cost-saving measures without passing on expenses to consumers [6]. - A pet supply store owner highlighted that the price of a popular product would jump from $33.5 to $114.29 if produced domestically, risking the viability of their business [7].

美股指期货全线上涨。 当地时间周一（5月26日），受阵亡将士纪念日假期影响，美股休市一日。欧股主要股指收涨。 今日（5月27日）早间，美股三大股指期货全线上涨，道指期货涨近400点。此前，特朗普同意延长欧盟关税谈判期限。 市场消息方面，特朗普媒体集团据悉计划筹集30亿美元，用于购买比特币等加密货币。北京时间26日晚，比特币大幅拉升走 高，最高涨至110400美元。 欧股主要股指收涨 美股指期货全线上涨 当地时间周一，欧股主要指数收盘上涨，德国DAX30指数涨1.68%，法国CAC40指数涨1.21%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.30%。 据最新消息，欧盟计划加速与美国谈判，从而避免大西洋两岸发生"贸易战"。5月26日，据媒体报道，欧盟委员会发言人Paula Pinho表示：谈判现在有了新的推动力，双方同意加快贸易谈判并保持密切联系。 欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇表示，与美国商务部长卢特尼克和美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔进行了良好的通 话，欧盟委员会仍然完全致力于以建设性和专注的方式，努力达成协议。谢夫乔维奇称将继续保持密切联系。 据新华社此前报道，美国总统特朗普25日说，在与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩通电话后 ...

Group 1 - French President Macron's visit to Vietnam aims to strengthen bilateral relations and includes a significant agreement for the purchase of 20 Airbus aircraft [1][3] - The Airbus deal is part of a broader strategy by France to enhance its influence in Vietnam amid U.S. tariff threats [1][4] - Airbus holds a dominant position in Vietnam's aviation market, supplying 86% of the country's commercial aircraft [3] Group 2 - The agreements signed during Macron's visit cover various sectors, including defense cooperation, nuclear energy, and vaccine collaboration [1][3] - Vietnam's defense partnership with France will focus on sharing strategic information and enhancing cooperation in defense industry, cybersecurity, and counter-terrorism [1][3] - The European Union has expressed concerns over Vietnam's trade negotiations with the U.S., warning that concessions should not come at the expense of European interests [4][5] Group 3 - Vietnam is actively seeking to negotiate trade agreements with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, with recent discussions indicating a willingness to engage [5][6] - The U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 46% if a trade agreement is not reached by early July [5][6] - Vietnam's government is taking proactive measures to respond to U.S. tariff policies while maintaining its international trade commitments [6]