Core Insights - The trend of index-based allocation in public FOFs (funds of funds) is becoming increasingly evident, with many FOFs heavily investing in ETFs [1][3] - The demand for diversified FOF products and ETF-FOF innovations is rising, reflecting a shift in investment strategies [4][5] - The growing complexity and variety of index funds require enhanced asset allocation capabilities from fund managers [6][7] Group 1: FOF Investment Trends - As of October 25, 2023, many FOFs have a significant portion of their top holdings in ETFs, with some FOFs having up to 9 out of 10 top holdings as ETFs [1][2] - Notable examples include the Jianxin FOF and Wanjiayou FOF, which have multiple ETFs among their top holdings, indicating a strong preference for index funds [2][3] - A report from Huatai Securities predicts that by the end of 2024, 90.73% of public FOFs will have allocated to ETFs [3] Group 2: New Product Innovations - The market is seeing the introduction of new FOF products, such as multi-asset allocation FOFs and ETF-FOFs, to meet investor demand [4][5] - As of October 25, 2023, there are 7 multi-asset allocation FOFs established in 2025, which include provisions for index funds [4] - The ETF-FOF products are designed to allocate over 80% of their non-cash underlying assets to ETFs, reflecting a strategic response to market demand [5] Group 3: Challenges and Requirements - The rise of index-based allocation increases the complexity of asset management, necessitating higher asset allocation skills from fund managers [6][7] - Fund managers are expected to develop capabilities in multi-asset allocation and to identify arbitrage opportunities, which are essential for achieving excess returns [6][7] - Challenges include market volatility affecting asset rotation strategies and potential liquidity issues with certain ETFs, which could lead to homogenization of ETF-FOF products [7]

2025年10月下旬，黄金市场经历了惊心动魄的一幕。 单日暴跌创下十二年记录，2.5万亿美元市值瞬间蒸发。 然而戏剧性的是，仅仅五天后，金价就稳稳站在4112美元的高位。 这种过山车行情让人不禁想起2006年的历史。 当时金价在暴涨60%后急速回落30%，一个半月时间抹去大量涨幅。 历史会不会重演？ 这个问题让投资者们 攥着钞票左右为难。 华尔街投行正在上演自相矛盾的戏码。 摩根大通分析师信誓旦旦预测2026年金价突破5055美元，但同一家公司的量化团队却在内部报告中预警当前走势与 2006年暴跌前高度相似。 这种矛盾不仅存在于投行内部，更体现在黄金ETF期权市场。 那里正出现罕见的多空对决，杠杆资金仓皇出逃的场面令人瞠目。 有交易员形容这就像"一群 人在漆黑的电影院里抢着找出口"。 黄金市场的本质正在发生根本转变。 过去投资者把它单纯当作避险工具，现在它正在演变为股票风险对冲器。 摩根大通研究显示，机构投资者开始用黄金 替代债券来对冲股票风险。 这个转变的影响超乎想象。 全球投资者只需将黄金配置比例提升两个百分点，三年内金价就可能实现翻倍。 这意味着黄金正在从配角升级为主角。 各国央行的行为也印证了这一趋势 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, yet many investors continue to increase their positions in gold assets, indicating a strong belief in the long-term value of gold despite short-term fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 24, the domestic gold ETF scale increased by over 700 million yuan compared to before the price drop on October 20, reaching a net subscription of 848 million shares [1][4]. - From August to October 20, COMEX gold saw a cumulative increase of over 30%, attracting substantial capital inflow, but experienced a sharp decline of over 5% on October 21 [2][4]. - Despite the recent price drop, the scale of domestic gold ETFs rose from 236.13 billion yuan on October 20 to 236.86 billion yuan by October 24, reflecting a net increase of 730 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor enthusiasm for gold remains high, with a notable increase in searches for gold on platforms like Alipay, which saw over 9.4 million searches in the week following the National Day holiday, a fivefold increase year-on-year [5]. - Young investors, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are becoming a significant force in gold investment, with over 55% of gold users on the Ant Wealth platform belonging to these age groups [5]. - The demand for physical gold remains robust, with reports indicating that many young consumers are purchasing gold jewelry for both investment and decorative purposes [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while gold may experience short-term corrections following rapid price increases, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing capital inflows from central banks and reduced volatility in recent years [7][8]. - Investment strategies should focus on disciplined asset allocation, ensuring that gold holdings are maintained at predetermined levels to avoid impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations [8].

来源：雪球 昨天和一位朋友聊投资 ， 截屏给我看了他的投资帐户收益情况 ， 10年时间赚了89.63% ， 我看到右上角的数字 " 战胜91.16%的股友 "。 我算了一下 ， 年化收益率约为6.6% 。 这个结果让我惊讶 ， 投资10年时间不被市场淘汰 ， 可以坚守下来的人不多 ， 我身边早期投资股票的同 学 、 朋友和同事相当一部分都退出了股市 ， 留下来的都是股市中的幸存者 ， 6.6%的年化收益率就能在幸存者中站上金字塔的上层 。 不知道大家看到这个数据有何感想 ？ 还追求1年翻倍吗 ？ 10年能翻1倍就能战胜绝大多数人了 。 常看到网络上有人晒高收益 ， 给人一种错觉 ， 以为股票投资很容易暴富 ， 其实这类人都是极少数 ， 他们的方法难以模仿 ， 或只是阶段性的好运气 ， 不可复制 。 广东有句俗语 " 人心不足蛇吞象 " ， 只有知足 ， 知股票投资的艰难 ， 才对市场有敬畏之心 ， 才能脚踏实地 ， 不激进不冒险 ， 不抱暴富之心 ， 潜心打好股票投资的基本功 ， 保持长期投资的理性和持股的耐性 ， 收益才有保障 。 我的股龄有19年了 ， 年化收益率大约14% （ 没有公开验证 ， 仅仅是自 ...

Core Insights - The FOF (Fund of Funds) managers are divided on whether to adopt a defensive or aggressive strategy in the fourth quarter after a year of market fluctuations, with some reporting significant returns [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the average return of all public FOF products in the market over the past year was 19.04%, with all achieving positive returns [1] - Notable performers include Guotai Youxuan Lihang One-Year Holding Mixed FOF and E Fund Advantage Lihang Six-Month Holding Mixed FOF, with net value growth rates exceeding 60%, at 66.65% and 60.83% respectively [1] - Nearly ten products reported net value growth rates over 50%, indicating strong performance in a structural market [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - FOFs that performed well typically timed their investments correctly and took bold positions, such as Guotai Youxuan Lihang One-Year Holding FOF, which had nearly 30% of its top ten holdings in rare earth ETFs [1] - E Fund Advantage Lihang Six-Month Holding Mixed FOF had a top ten holdings concentration of 65.96%, primarily in E Fund products, emphasizing a focus on technology growth [2] Group 3: Manager Insights - Manager Deng Da of China Europe Yingxuan Stable Six-Month Holding FOF opted for a conservative approach, analyzing asset risk-return characteristics to maintain stability [3] - Deng highlighted that large-cap technology stocks in the A-share market have a lower risk-return ratio compared to similar U.S. and Japanese stocks, while domestic blue-chip stocks present better risk-return characteristics [3] - Manager Liu Jian of Tongtai Youxuan Three-Month Holding FOF expressed a balanced yet proactive strategy, focusing on macroeconomic clarity and the importance of technology sectors [5] Group 4: Portfolio Composition - The top ten holdings of China Europe Yingxuan Stable Six-Month Holding FOF are all bond funds, with the largest being Hai Fuyitong Zhongzheng Short Bond ETF at 14.59% [5] - Tongtai Youxuan Three-Month Holding FOF showed a significant shift in its portfolio, with the top two holdings being Fu Guo Zhongzheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Huaan Chuangban 50 ETF, indicating a more aggressive stance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing risk and return in investment strategies, advocating for the use of the Sharpe Ratio as a key metric for evaluating investment performance and making informed asset allocation decisions [6][7]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Various asset classes have performed well this year, with A-shares reaching a nearly 10-year high, and the Nasdaq and gold also hitting historical peaks [4]. - The author achieved a return exceeding 15% this year with a maximum drawdown of less than 8% by employing a diversified asset allocation strategy [4]. Group 2: Sharpe Ratio - The Sharpe Ratio, proposed by Nobel laureate William Sharpe, measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment, calculated as (expected return - risk-free rate) / volatility [7]. - A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates a better risk-return trade-off, allowing investors to assess the efficiency of their investments [7]. Group 3: Advantages of High Sharpe Ratio - Pursuing a high Sharpe Ratio eliminates the need for market timing, as investments with lower volatility tend to provide steadier returns [9][11]. - A high Sharpe Ratio enhances the trading experience by reducing psychological stress associated with market fluctuations [12][13]. - Time is a crucial factor in investment growth, and a stable return is necessary to benefit from compounding over time [14][15]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article suggests that effective asset allocation can significantly improve the Sharpe Ratio, with a reported Sharpe Ratio of 1.73 for a diversified portfolio compared to the CSI 300 index [16]. - Diversification across low-correlated assets can lower volatility, as demonstrated by the contrasting performance of A-shares, Nasdaq, and gold during market fluctuations [18][19][20]. - Optimizing asset weights within a portfolio can enhance the expected return while managing risk, as illustrated by a specific asset allocation strategy yielding over 15% returns with lower drawdowns [21].

Core Viewpoint - Investors should set reasonable return targets, appropriately assume risks, broaden investment scope, and extend investment horizons in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Principles - Holding risk assets can yield risk premiums, and diversification is the only free lunch in investing [1] - A reasonable allocation of alpha and beta is essential, and global allocation requires managing currency risks [1] Group 2: Future Investment Outlook - The current investment landscape is characterized by greater short-term clarity compared to long-term macro prospects, suggesting a maintenance of risk appetite [1] - Strategic management of macro risks is necessary to navigate macroeconomic fluctuations through active management [1] - Emphasizing disruptive trends, investors should focus on digital innovation, artificial intelligence, geopolitical shifts, and low-carbon transitions as structural changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by Lijin Rural Commercial Bank aimed to enhance financial literacy among community residents through an engaging "Doudizhu" card game, integrating financial knowledge into the game to make learning enjoyable [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Lijin Rural Commercial Bank Cup" Doudizhu competition was held in the Yongan community of Lijin County, targeting new residents [1]. - Bank staff used card game terminology to convey important financial concepts such as asset allocation and fraud prevention [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Education Approach - The bank staff engaged with residents at various card tables, focusing on imparting financial knowledge rather than card-playing skills [3]. - Analogies were drawn between card game strategies and financial risks, emphasizing the dangers of high-yield investment promises and the importance of vigilance against scams [3]. Group 3: Future Initiatives - Lijin Rural Commercial Bank plans to continue innovating its educational outreach, aiming to deliver more financial knowledge and risk awareness to households in enjoyable formats [3].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have sparked a significant interest among young investors, leading them to explore new asset allocation strategies, particularly the "New Three Gold" approach, which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds [3][14][23]. Group 1: Gold Market Trends - On October 24, spot gold prices fell below $4,100 per ounce, marking a 0.64% decline [2]. - Following a significant drop of 5.31% on October 21, which was the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years, gold prices have continued to decrease, approaching the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce [3]. - Despite the recent price corrections, consumer interest in purchasing gold remains strong, with many buyers undeterred by price fluctuations [4][6]. Group 2: Young Investors' Behavior - Young investors are increasingly shifting their focus from traditional gold jewelry to financial instruments, actively engaging in the "New Three Gold" investment strategy [14][23]. - Data from Ant Financial indicates that as of April 2025, 9.37 million users born in the 1990s and 2000s are simultaneously investing in money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, representing a year-on-year growth of over 35% [17]. - The rise of the "New Three Gold" strategy is attributed to the transition from traditional banking to online investment platforms, allowing easier access to financial information [17][21]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and E-commerce - Gold has become a popular item during e-commerce promotions, such as the Double Eleven shopping festival, with platforms offering subsidies and discounts to attract buyers [8][11]. - Consumers are increasingly motivated by the perceived value and price competitiveness of gold purchases, often utilizing online tools to compare prices and maximize their investment [13][24]. - The trend of "low-energy money-making" reflects a shift in young people's financial strategies, focusing on diversified investments to mitigate risks while seeking reasonable returns [24].

Group 1 - The conference held by Guotai Junan Securities focused on "Global Asset Allocation in the New Landscape," featuring discussions among experts and institutional investors from various sectors [1] - Guotai Junan aims to enhance its global asset allocation capabilities by adopting a "global vision and Chinese wisdom" approach, emphasizing innovation and collaboration to improve client investment experiences [3][11] - The company introduced a standardized six-step asset allocation service process to safeguard and enhance client wealth [11] Group 2 - Wang Yiming from the China International Economic Exchange Center highlighted the importance of high-quality development and expanding domestic demand in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - Su Gang from China Pacific Insurance discussed the long-term investment value of Chinese assets amid global economic challenges and proposed strategies for insurance fund allocation [5] - Fan Hua from BlackRock emphasized the need for strategic asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment, focusing on managing macro risks and leveraging disruptive trends [7] Group 3 - Ye Lijian from浦银理财 discussed the shift in China's economic model and the importance of multi-strategy asset allocation in the current low-interest-rate environment [9] - The first roundtable forum addressed global asset allocation under innovation-driven contexts, with participants noting the need to balance opportunities and risks amid international trade tensions [11] - The second roundtable forum focused on ETF practices in asset allocation, highlighting the growing importance of large asset allocation strategies in the current market [13] Group 4 - The third roundtable featured top private equity managers discussing investment opportunities in the current market environment, emphasizing tailored strategies for high-net-worth clients [15] - Guotai Junan aims to establish itself as a leading professional platform in China's asset allocation sector by 2025, focusing on building alliances among top asset management institutions [17]