Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The far - month outlook for eggs is weak [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,857 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 3.28%, a trading volume decrease of 3,008, and an open interest decrease of 1,336; for egg2509, the closing price is 3,630 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.98%, a trading volume increase of 9,781, and an open interest increase of 11,347 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is - 712 (previous day: - 682), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is - 773 (previous day: - 726) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In terms of egg spot prices, the price in Liaoning is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; in Hebei, it is 2.60 yuan/jin (previous day: 2.62 yuan/jin); in Shanxi, it is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hubei, it is 3.09 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.07 yuan/jin). Corn spot price is 2,310 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,313 yuan/ton), and the soybean meal spot price is 2,920 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,940 yuan/ton). The pig price in Henan is 14.63 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.43 yuan/kg) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for polysilicon [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions a corporate financing project and the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: Si2509 closing price is 7,420 yuan/ton, PS2507 closing price is 30,615 yuan/ton. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [2] - **Spot Price and Premium**: Prices of various grades of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with their spot premiums. For example, the spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +705 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit and Inventory**: Silicon factory profits are negative, with -3776 yuan/ton for Xinjiang new - standard 553. Industrial silicon social inventory is 55.9 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory is 26.2 million tons [2] - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., are given. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 370 yuan/ton [2] - **Photovoltaic Product Data**: Prices and profit data of photovoltaic products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., are presented. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.9 yuan/piece [2] - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 10,400 yuan/ton, and ADC12 price is 20,000 yuan/ton. Their corresponding enterprise profits are also provided [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shanghai Aikosolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to issue A - shares to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan for the Yiwu Phase VI 15GW high - efficiency crystalline silicon solar cell project and to supplement working capital. The project has good economic benefits with a financial internal rate of return of 10.17% and an investment payback period of 6.26 years [3][4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a bearish view on polysilicon [4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 黄金：地缘政治停火 白银：继续冲高 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 781.30 | 0.35% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | 黄金T+D | 777.94 | 0.17% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3384.40 | 0.00% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 8770 | 1.20% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 8730 | 0.76% | #N/A | #VALUE! | | | Comex白银2508 | 36.400 | 1.25% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2508合约对2512合约价 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年6月24日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.1万吨，环比有所增加2.53%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.1万吨，环比减少13.41%.需求持续低迷.多晶硅 库存为26.2万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利；有机硅库存为 72800吨，处于高位，有机硅生产利润为82元/吨，处于盈利状态，其综合开工率 为68.4%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝合金锭库存为2.38万吨，处于高 位，进口亏损为674元/吨，A356铝送至无锡运费和利润为655.4元/吨，再生铝开 工率为53.6%，还比减少0.55%,处于低位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

2025年06月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随回落 | 4 | | 豆一：市场氛围偏空，或调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：远月预期偏弱 | 11 | | 生猪：短期震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：国际油价回落，油脂单边回调 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.19% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.94% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 信心稍有回暖，基本面延续承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-23 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.54万吨，比12日-0.16%。行业开工率为75.34%，比12日-0.08个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.7%， | | | | 比12日+0.22个百分点。本周供应面增减并存，增量方面，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，减量方面，一条产线放水叠加一条产线热修，周度供 | | | | 应量环比小幅上涨。下周2条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，预计下周周度产量环比小幅减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工 ...

Report Information - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral, with some factors leaning towards the bearish side [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. Market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show a neutral situation overall, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventories rising, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is trading above the 20 - day line but the 20 - day line is downward, the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, and short - term trading is influenced by market sentiment [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is at a high level [4][6] - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on June 20. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have not changed much [4][14][17] - **Basis**: The spot price is 13,950, and the basis is 50, showing a neutral situation. The basis turned positive on June 20 [4][35] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 燃料油：夜盘窄幅调整，短期易涨难跌 低硫燃料油：相对高硫偏强，外盘现货高低硫 价差继续反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 3, 390 | -0. 09% | | 3.403 | 1.22% | | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.363 | 1.22% | | 3,379 | 1.26% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,965 | -0. 83% | | 3.980 | 0.94% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3.917 | 0. 94% | | 3.934 | 0.90% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2508 | र ...

2025年06月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好 | 2 | | 豆粕：天气正常、美豆收跌，连粕或回落 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：阶段性反弹 | 8 | | 棉花：缺乏上涨驱动 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：提前交易旺季预期 | 11 | | 生猪：短期震荡 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 期货研究 41 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 集运指数（欧线）：10 空单持有，逢高酌情加仓 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2506 | 1,891.0 0.29% | | 635 | 3,533 | -307 | 0.18 | 0.19 | | | EC2508 | 1,890.0 -6.99% | | 68,944 | 45,968 | 3,393 | 1.50 | 1.16 | | | EC2510 | -3.42% 1,360.0 | | 12,898 | 29,785 | 866 | 0.43 | 0.36 | | | | 本 期 | | 2025/6/16 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,697.63 | | | 点 | | 4.6% | | 运 价 | 美西航线 ...