Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of U.S. economic data are facing unprecedented scrutiny following personnel changes initiated by Trump, raising concerns about potential political influence on data accuracy and objectivity [3][4][6]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Their Implications - Trump's dismissal of Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erika McEntarfer, claiming manipulation of employment data, coincided with the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, leading to fears about the integrity of economic data [3][4]. - Kugler's resignation paves the way for Trump to appoint a successor to Powell, potentially allowing for a shift in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) direction [8][9]. - Analysts express that the scale of data revisions seen recently is rare, and the president's decision to dismiss officials without investigation is equally unprecedented [7][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - Investment firms are increasingly worried that if a politically aligned Labor Statistics Bureau head is appointed, Wall Street may disregard economic data due to concerns over manipulation [10]. - The potential erosion of data accuracy could place both the market and the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, with increased reliance on anecdotal information from the Beige Book anticipated [11]. - The authority and independence of the Federal Reserve are critical to maintaining the strength of the dollar; any threats to this independence could lead to a significant decline in the dollar's value [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have raised significant concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of U.S. economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Statistics Bureau Changes - President Trump dismissed Labor Statistics Bureau director Erika McEntarfer shortly after the release of the non-farm payroll report, alleging that employment data was "manipulated" to make him and the Republican Party look bad [1][2]. - The Labor Department confirmed McEntarfer's dismissal, with Deputy Director William Wiatrowski appointed as acting director [2]. - Analysts expressed that the dismissal is a severe blow to the integrity of the U.S. statistical system, which is crucial for global asset pricing [2][3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The resignation of Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler paves the way for Trump to appoint a successor, potentially accelerating the selection process for the next Federal Reserve chair [4][5]. - Trump's comments suggest a desire to reshape the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) according to his preferences, raising concerns about the political influence on monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - Investment firms have expressed widespread concern that if the Labor Statistics Bureau is led by a politically aligned director, the reliability of economic data may be compromised, leading to a lack of trust from Wall Street [6]. - Analysts warn that if the accuracy of economic data is undermined, it could place both the market and the Federal Reserve in a precarious position, potentially affecting the strength of the U.S. dollar [6].

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：白宫尊重美联储的独立性。 ...

Core Insights - The credit strategist at Goldman Sachs indicates that there are sufficient sources of downside risk, suggesting that it is prudent to maintain some hedging strategies within investment portfolios [1] Economic Outlook - Economic growth may unexpectedly decline further, which could lead to a significant drop in long-term bond yields [1] - There is a possibility that disinflationary pressures may fade, contributing to the overall economic uncertainty [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may resurface, adding to the potential risks in the market [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with no change in rates, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the current economic situation in the U.S., acknowledging a slowdown in overall economic activity while noting a stable job market and low unemployment rates [3] - High inflation remains a significant concern, preventing the Fed from lowering interest rates despite weakening growth momentum [3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut, indicating internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy [5] - The differing opinions among Fed members highlight concerns about high inflation versus the potential negative impacts of economic downturns and tariff policies on the U.S. economy [6] - The dissenting votes from two members, both nominated by former President Trump, suggest potential political influences on the Fed's independence and decision-making process [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the political implications of monetary policy decisions as the election approaches [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive refusal to lower rates, which Trump perceives as detrimental to his re-election campaign [1][3]. - High interest rates are constraining consumer spending, credit availability, and overall economic liquidity, which are critical for Trump's economic narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public criticism of Powell reflects a broader struggle for control over monetary policy, as he seeks immediate economic stimulus to bolster his electoral prospects [4][6]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is emphasized as a crucial element for maintaining market stability, with Powell's resistance to political pressure seen as vital for the integrity of the U.S. dollar [3][6][10]. Group 3: Implications for Trust in Monetary Policy - The article warns that if Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed, it could undermine global confidence in the U.S. monetary system, leading to potential economic instability [9][10]. - Powell's role is characterized as that of a guardian of monetary policy integrity, while Trump's approach is likened to that of a desperate gambler threatening the system [10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the intense political atmosphere in Washington, with President Trump urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates significantly to alleviate the federal government's financial burden [1] - The ongoing conflict between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell raises concerns about the Fed's independence, with investors anxious about potential impacts on monetary policy and market stability [1][9] - The sudden drop in gold prices, reaching a low of $3310 per ounce, reflects the volatility in the market and the unexpected shift in investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - Short-term investors are increasingly anxious due to market fluctuations, with experts warning about risks related to Federal Reserve policies, global trade tensions, and capital arbitrage activities [5] - The interplay of technical trading and market sentiment is causing heightened volatility, making it difficult for ordinary investors to navigate the market [9] - The article suggests that the ongoing standoff between the Federal Reserve and Trump will continue to create uncertainty in the gold market, with potential for price reversals [9]

在看似平静的水面之下，美联储内部"暗流涌动"。本次会议投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺 席未投票，其中由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事公开"唱反调"，支持降息25个基点。这也是自1993年 以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。深入分析可知，美联储内部已明显分化为激进派、中间派 和观望派三大阵营。面对内部愈演愈烈的分歧，以及外部政治与经济数据的加压，美联储主席鲍威尔乃 至美联储如何施展"平衡术"？降息时点何时到来？重重问题待解。 美联储连续五次维持利率不变 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 相较于6月议息会议会后声明，本次声明将经济活动"继续稳步扩张"修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，若后续数据延续这一趋势，将为未来降息提供依据。此外，将经济前景的不确定性"有所下降"的 判断删除，保留"仍处于较高水平"的表述，美联储通胀和就业的双重目标仍然面临风险。 与声明相比，本次会议的投票结果或许更有看点：9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中，反 对票来自由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒和米 ...

◎记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡 一场会议、两张反对票、三大阵营，美联储内部分歧加剧。 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储公布最新利率决议，如期将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50% 之间不变。至此，美联储已连续五次货币政策会议决定"按兵不动"。 在看似平静的水面之下，美联储内部"暗流涌动"。本次会议投票结果为9票赞成、2票反对，1位理事缺 席未投票，其中由美国总统特朗普任命的两位理事公开"唱反调"，支持降息25个基点。这也是自1993年 以来，美联储理事首次有两名成员投反对票。深入分析可知，美联储内部已明显分化为激进派、中间派 和观望派三大阵营。面对内部愈演愈烈的分歧，以及外部政治与经济数据的加压，美联储主席鲍威尔乃 至美联储如何施展"平衡术"？降息时点何时到来？重重问题待解。 美联储连续五次维持利率不变 北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%至4.50%之间不变。 相较于6月议息会议会后声明，本次声明将经济活动"继续稳步扩张"修改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放 缓"，若后续数据延续这一趋势，将为未来降息提供依据。此外，将经济前景的不确定性"有所下 ...

据新华社，北京时间7月31日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在4.25%-4.50%，符合市场预 期。今年以来美联储始终保持基准利率不变，主要出于关税政策反复、通胀压力和经济不确定性多重因 素的考量。 财政施压下坚持通胀目标的代价更为高昂 近期，特朗普政府对货币政策立场持续的言论干涉，也进一步引发了市场对于美联储独立性的关注。政 府层面对于货币政策立场的干预反映出美国财政和经济层面正面临多重压力。 新华社报道称，7月4日，特朗普总统正式签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，高债务背景下的财政扩张对经 济刺激的有效性依赖货币政策的配合。若美联储坚持通胀目标，财政扩张在高利率环境下或反而加重经 济与债务负担，而货币政策的妥协则可能推升新一轮通胀。考虑到鲍威尔任期即将结束，未来市场对美 联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发酵，金融市场不确定性随之上升。 参考历史经验和相关学术研究，美联储独立性被认为是稳定通胀预期与维护市场信任的关键因素。在当 前多重压力下，美联储仍按兵不动以维护其政策独立性，稳定市场预期与制度信任。 值得注意的是，近期美国关税政策在与日本、欧洲的磋商中显露出一定缓和迹象。若后续关税幅度有所 下调，对物 ...