| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | 棕榈油 | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美 ...

每日市场观察 2025 年 10 月 22 日 【今日关注】 周二市场收涨。成交额 1.89 万亿，比上一交易日增加约 1400 亿。行 业除煤炭外全部上涨，通信、电子、建筑、地产等行业涨幅居前。 当前，市场正面临重要会议，三季报披露，以及中美即将新一轮的会 面磋商贸易等事件性因素。虽不能确定指数能够很快创出新高，但在 技术层面已经形成了一种较为稳定的 K 线组合。 根据《中华人民共和国货物进出口管理条例》《化肥进口关税配额管 理暂行办法》，商务部制定了《2026 年化肥进口关税配额总量、分配 原则及相关程序》，现予公布，请遵照执行。2026 年化肥进口关税配 额总量为 1365 万吨。其中，尿素 330 万吨；磷酸氢二铵 690 万吨；复 合肥 345 万吨。 此前市场的调整，较大程度上源于川普关于中美贸易的言论。而随后， 川普言论有所缓和，期间的反复，反映的是中美博弈攻守地位的转换。 其背后是中国科技实力和综合实力的增强，这是 A 股保持韧性并且中 长期继续向好的底层逻辑。 中午之前市场资金在多个方向均有试探，包括新能源、半导体、算力 等，但从全天看，算力板块更胜一筹，午后力度有所增强。科技板块 整体已经 ...

特朗普对华进行关税讹诈，为什么说象征意义大于实际意义？对于中美贸易，特朗普对华提出三大要求，为什么说这些要求是非常无理的呢？ 自从中国出台稀土新规之后，特朗普对华动作就一直没有停止过，他先是对华发起了关税讹诈，威胁从下月初开始要对中国商品加征100%的关税，就在这 两天，特朗普又作出了两个新的表态。 第二个，就是只要中方作出三大让步，美国就刀下留人。具体是哪三大让步呢？一是中国进口美国大豆；二是中国放开稀土出口；三是中国禁止芬太尼。只 要中国按照特朗普的要求照做的话，他就会降低对华关税。很明显，特朗普的要求非常无理。首先，进口美国大豆和放开稀土管控这两件事，它们是在中美 关税战的背景下发生的。那在双方还未就关税谈判达成共识的情况下，中国就进口美国大豆，放开稀土管控，这无疑就是在对美妥协，它是不符合中方利益 的。所以，目前特朗普的这两个要求，中国是无法满足的。其次，就是芬太尼问题，它是中美之间老生常谈的话题，也是美国用来抹黑中国的惯常伎俩。 在这个问题上，中国已经多次做出表态，芬太尼是美国的问题，不是中国的问题，责任在美国自身。特朗普一直在拿芬太尼说事，很显然还是想要继续坚持 由此对华加征的关税。再次，特朗普提 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美豆收获上市中美谈判声音仍存，据传阿根廷第二船豆粕可能重新进入中国市场， | | 豆粕 | | 利空市场情绪。但巴西未来十五天展望再度表现不足，豆粕低位小幅反弹。此外， | | ★ | 短线偏空整理 | 中美贸易关税仍对豆粕暂构成下档支撑作用，2800 附近短线存在支撑。但由于缺乏 | | | | 强利多驱动，豆粕暂维持偏弱整理对待，关注中美贸易后续进展。 | | | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | 菜粕 | 短线偏空整理 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 美豆油价格竞争以及本月前十五日马棕榈油出口数据较好暂形成多空因素交织，棕 | | 棕榈油 ★ | 短期震荡 | 榈油暂以高位震荡行情对待，仍可关注逢低企稳短多机会，但上行空间预计有限。 | | | | 美国政府停摆导致美国农业部相关报告停更。美豆收获上市以及原油下跌拖累美豆 | | 豆油 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expected trend for both being weakly volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks contribute to this outlook, while the operating conditions of agricultural film are stable, and industrial inventories are moderately high [4][6] LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices have continued to decline. On the supply - demand side, the operation of agricultural film is stable with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other films is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6920 (+10) [4] Key Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 46, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish. The PE comprehensive inventory is 58.0 million tons (+3.7), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, and Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has increased but is still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0) [6] Key Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 1, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.0%, which is neutral. The PP comprehensive inventory is 67.9 million tons (-0.3), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 6920, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6874, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 12685, 0 change. PE comprehensive factory inventory: 58.0, 0 change. PE social inventory: 546, 0 change [8] PP - Spot delivery product price: 6550, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6551, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 14313, 0 change. PP comprehensive factory inventory: 67.9, 0 change. PP social inventory: 349, 0 change [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase in 2020 and 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been steadily increasing, with relatively large growth rates in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [15]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term surge in precious metal prices may have ended due to the possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but the uptrend may continue until 2026 due to factors like Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while being aware of short - term adjustment risks [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The possible easing of Sino - US trade tensions through this week's economic and trade consultations in Malaysia has alleviated market concerns, leading to significant price drops in gold and silver on Friday. The short - term surge may be over, and investors should watch for short - term adjustment risks. However, factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide safe - haven demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals, and the uptrend may last until 2026. This week, key events to monitor include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold oscillated between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressure. Easing international trade conditions and a strong global stock market weakened safe - haven demand. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's rate - cut process, and under the Trump administration's pressure, the rate - cut pace may be faster. The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to mid - October, London gold started a new uptrend, soaring to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record of $54.47 per ounce. The bullish factors will continue to work, but short - term price surges bring adjustment risks, and bullish factors may weaken periodically. Investors are advised to be bullish overall, and short - hedgers can reduce the hedging ratio [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11] 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump pressured the Ukrainian president to give up territory and proposed an agreement based on the current front line, which was accepted by Zelensky [17]. - Trump continued to signal trade - tension easing, and the Trump administration is quietly relaxing tariff policies, exempting dozens of products from so - called reciprocal tariffs and willing to exclude more products when trade agreements are reached [17]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in a year and a half. Fitch had downgraded France's rating in September, and Moody's will announce its latest rating decision on the 24th [17]. - The US and South Korea have made substantial progress in most trade negotiation issues, and the possibility of reaching a trade agreement before the APEC meeting is high [18].

中新网10月20日电 海关总署数据显示，今年9月，中国未从美国进口大豆。这是中国对美国大豆月进口 量自2018年11月以来首次降至零。 在关税背景下，今年美国豆农的大豆丰收季没有了"中国订单"。而与此同时，作为世界上最大的大豆进 口国，中国正加大对南美国家大豆的采购以取代美豆。 据路透社等报道，今年1—9月，中国共从巴西进口6370万吨大豆，同比增长2.4%，从阿根廷进口290万 吨大豆，同比增长31.8%。中国对南美国家大豆进口量创下新高。 路透社还提到，如果美国和中国接下来的贸易谈判没有突破，随着中国继续从南美采购大豆，美国农民 可能面临数十亿美元的损失。 彭博社报道则提到，因失去中国买家，美国农民的不满情绪正在加剧，他们面临着大豆价格下跌的压 力，许多人急切期待美国政府援助。不过，因为政府"停摆"，这些援助目前处于搁置状态。（记者宫宏 宇） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals declined from high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing down 1.63% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing down 3.99%. [1] - In the short - term, regarding safe - haven aspects, there may be a meeting between China and the US, easing trade - war risks. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, employment is weakening, and inflation is moderate. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is starting to materialize. [1] - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is unsustainable. The US Treasury Secretary expects China and the US to meet in Malaysia soon to prevent tariff escalation. [1] - In terms of the monetary attribute, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months. Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has hardly changed recently, but signs of cooling consumption are emerging. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in September, far lower than the market - expected increase of 51,000. Currently, the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in October with a probability of around 90%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - In terms of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate weakly in the short term, oscillate at high levels in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [2] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex gold's main - contract closing price is $4224.90 per ounce, up 1.57% from the previous day and 4.05% from the previous week; London gold is $4204.60 per ounce, up 1.90% from the previous day and 4.07% from the previous week. [2] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai gold's main contract is 970.32 yuan per gram, down 2.95% from the previous day and up 4.61% from the previous week; the closing price of gold T + D is 973.70 yuan per gram, down 2.23% from the previous day and up 5.10% from the previous week. [2] - **Basis, spreads, and ratios**: The difference between Shanghai gold's main contract and London gold is 5.71 yuan per gram, down 87% from the previous day and down 215% from the previous week; the gold - to - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) is 77.72, down 0.22% from the previous day and down 2.35% from the previous week. [2] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots; Shanghai gold's main - contract positions are 207,916 lots, down 6.43% from the previous day and down 13.37% from the previous week; gold T + D positions are 258,232 lots, up 1.27% from the previous day and up 12.76% from the previous week. LBMA gold inventory is 8,598 tons; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.08% from the previous week. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits. [5] - **Data Summary**: - **International prices**: Comex silver's main - contract closing price is $50.63 per ounce, down 5.25% from the previous day and up 6.55% from the previous week; London silver is $54.10 per ounce, up 2.04% from the previous day and up 6.58% from the previous week. [5] - **Domestic prices**: The closing price of Shanghai silver's main contract is 11,742 yuan per kilogram, down 4.14% from the previous day and up 1.83% from the previous week; the closing price of silver T + D is 11,779 yuan per kilogram, down 3.67% from the previous day and up 2.85% from the previous week. [5] - **Basis and spreads**: The difference between Shanghai silver's main contract and London silver is - 653.17 yuan per gram, down 744.93% from the previous day and up 479.09% from the previous week; the basis of Shanghai silver's main contract is 37 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Positions and inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots; Shanghai silver's main - contract positions are 6,489,945 lots, down 8.17% from the previous day and down 12.70% from the previous week; silver T + D positions are 3,830,738 lots, up 5.73% from the previous day and up 20.97% from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 42,538 tons, down 0.58% from the previous day and down 1.32% from the previous week. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, the discount rate is 4.25%, the interest rate on reserve balances (IORB) is 4.15%, and the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up 0.00% from the previous number. [7] - **Economic data**: The year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 4.77%, the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury is 2.32%, the US dollar index is 98.55, the yield spread between 3 - month and 10 - year US Treasuries is 0.54, and the yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries is - 0.02. [7][10] - **Inflation data**: The year - on - year CPI is 2.90%, the core CPI year - on - year is 3.10%, and the PCE price index year - on - year is 2.74%. [10] - **Other data**: The NAHB housing - market index is 37.00, up 15.63% from the previous number; new - home sales are 660,000 units, up 15.15% from the previous number; the retail - sales year - on - year growth rate is 3.76%. [10] - **Central - bank gold reserves**: China's central - bank gold reserve is 2,303.52 tons, up 0.14% from the previous number; the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. [11] - **Other indicators**: The geopolitical - risk index is 259.24, the VIX index is 20.40, the CRB commodity index is 293.35, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1263. [11] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations Based on the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range at different meetings from October 2025 to September 2027 are presented in a probability table, showing the changing probabilities of different interest - rate ranges at each meeting. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with a surge of $360 followed by a sharp decline of $200, ultimately stabilizing above $4200, indicating a highly dynamic trading environment [1][4][11]. Weekly Performance - Last week, gold prices soared, demonstrating a parabolic rise, and after a high jump, it managed to rebound above $4200 [1][4]. - Today's trading opened high with a rebound of $50, suggesting continued upward momentum [5]. - The market is projected to test the resistance level at $4280, with potential for further gains towards $4380 [6][7]. Market Dynamics - Following a high-level drop, there is a possibility of further adjustments, with support levels being monitored at $4200 and $4127 [9][11]. - The gold market has seen a remarkable increase of over $900 in the last two months, with an annual increase nearing $1800, indicating a strong bullish trend despite recent corrections [11]. Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, including the imposition of tariffs, have significantly impacted market sentiment, contributing to the rise in gold prices [13]. - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, affecting economic data releases and potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices [14]. - Key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) are expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment [14]. Investment Strategy - Emphasis is placed on the importance of timing in entering and exiting positions in the gold market, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit opportunities [14]. - The expertise of seasoned investment teams is highlighted as a critical factor for achieving high accuracy in trading decisions [14].

2025年10月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.290 | 105.780 | 105.695 | 108.295 | 107.980 | 115.87 | 115.57 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.362 | 102.274 | 105.705 | 105.600 | 108.165 | 107.870 | 114.96 | 114.68 | | | 涨跌 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.130 ...