Core Viewpoint - SMIC's production lines are operating at a high capacity utilization rate of 95.8% in Q3, indicating strong demand and a supply shortage [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The company's production lines are currently very full, reflecting a high level of orders [1] - The Q4 guidance does not show significant growth due to concerns in the mobile market regarding memory shortages and rising prices [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Customers are cautious about placing orders in Q4, fearing excess inventory, which has led to a shift in orders to competitors [1] - Overall market sentiment is cautious, impacting the company's growth projections for Q4 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a significant recovery, with a notable increase in production and investment, despite challenges in the broader economic environment [1][2][19]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China for January to October 2025 reached 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [19]. - Automotive investment growth for the same period was 17.5%, significantly higher than other manufacturing sectors [19]. Production and Sales Performance - In October 2025, total automotive production was 328,000 units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase [17]. - From January to October 2025, automotive production totaled 27.33 million units, also up 11% year-on-year [17]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) production reached 1.267 million units from January to October 2025, marking a 28% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 46% [17]. Consumption Patterns - Automotive consumption in October 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the consumption amount from January to October 2025 decreased by 0.2% [4][27]. - The overall automotive consumption has increased from 3.94 trillion yuan in 2020 to 5.03 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating a recovery from previous years [4][27]. Economic Context - The external environment remains complex, with rising unilateralism and protectionism impacting supply chains [2]. - The real estate market's downturn has positively influenced automotive consumption, alleviating previous pressures on consumer spending [23][25]. Future Outlook - The automotive industry anticipates continued growth, supported by policies aimed at stimulating demand, such as tax reductions for car buyers and incentives for purchasing new energy vehicles [2][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of methanol is downward. In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, while the MTO industry faces increased fundamental pressure, compressing profit margins and suppressing the upward space of methanol. Under inventory pressure, production profits are squeezed. With the weakening of macro - drivers and the weak industrial chain fundamentals, methanol has been operating weakly recently [4]. - As the processing profit of coal - to - methanol is gradually compressed, the pricing logic weight of the cost side of methanol has slightly increased. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize. In the future, a decline in inventory caused by production enterprises reducing their operating rates may support prices [4]. - The unilateral center of methanol oscillates downward, with the upper pressure of contract 01 at 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the 1 - 5 month spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high levels. The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including the basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol. It also shows domestic and international spot prices of methanol, as well as port - inland price spreads [7][11][15][18] 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, there have been multiple new methanol production capacity projects in China, with a total expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Internationally, the total expansion was 3550000 tons in 2024 and is expected to be 3300000 tons in 2025 [23]. - **Maintenance**: There are multiple domestic methanol plant maintenance cases, with a total affected capacity of 4700000 tons/year, and a total actual loss of 1893120 tons [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: From October 31 - November 6, 2025, China's methanol production was 1992055 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. It is expected that next week's production will be around 2008400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 88.51% [4]. - **Import - related**: The report shows charts of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [37][38][39][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report presents the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes in various regions, including coal - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol, and natural gas - to - methanol [42][43][44][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of various methanol downstream industries, including methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. [52][53][54][55] - **Downstream Profit**: It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions [59][60][63][64][65] - **Procurement Volume**: It includes the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in different regions and the raw material procurement volumes of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [67][68][69][70][72][73][74][75] - **Raw Material Inventory**: It shows the raw material inventories of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [77][78][79][80] 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: The report shows the factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) [82][83][84][85] - **Port Inventory**: It shows the port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) [88][89][90]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing an improvement in order cycles for both clothing and fabric, indicating a potential recovery in demand and production efficiency [1] Summary by Categories Order Cycles - The current order cycle for clothing is 2-3 months, while the fabric order cycle is approximately 1.5 months [1] Financial Performance - The functional fabric project, operated by Luyuan Company, achieved a revenue of 88.05 million yuan in the first three quarters [1] - Despite an increase in capacity utilization due to improved orders, the company is still in a loss position due to previously low production levels, although losses are expected to decrease as production increases [1]

证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 11 月 14 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 10 月银行信贷增量为 2200 亿元，Wind 预期为 4600 亿元，前值为 1.29 万亿。与 去年同期相比，同比减 2800 亿元，其中居民减 5204 亿元：中长期减 1800 亿元， 短期减 3356 亿元；企业增 2200 亿元：中长期减 1400 亿元，短期持平，票据增 3312 亿元，非银减 164 亿元。 10 月银行存款增量为 6100 亿元，前值为 2.21 万亿元。与去年同期相比，同比增 加 100 亿元，其中居民减 7700 亿元，企业减 3553 亿元，非银增 7700 亿元，财政 存款增 1248 亿元。 风险提示： 对上述事件发展趋势的点评，存在由于经济增长、行业竞争、销售不及预期等变 化，而不如预期的可能。 分析师：刘笑瑜 事件： 11 月 14 日 17 点中国人民银行公布 10 月中国金融数据。 评论： 从存量上看， 10 月 M2 同比为 8.2%，Wind 预期为 8.0%，前值（9 月）为 8.4%； M1 同比为 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in its financial performance starting in the fourth quarter, following adjustments made in response to production challenges faced earlier in the year [1]. Group 1 - The company reported that some customers' vehicle production did not meet expectations, which affected the capacity utilization of its Mexican plant [1]. - An increase in depreciation and amortization ratios was noted, which temporarily impacted profit release [1]. - The company has been actively making adjustments since the beginning of the year to address these issues [1]. Group 2 - The company expressed confidence that the situation is expected to improve in the fourth quarter [1].

华润建材科技(01313)午前跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.31%，报1.69港元，成交额732.64万港元。 消息面上，近期华润建材科技发布2025年三季度业绩，长江证券表示，从公司层面上看，华润建材科技 2025年前3季度水泥和熟料合计销量3943万吨，同比下降10%，水泥销量降幅大于行业，体现出公司积 极维护市场价格体系的自律担当;价格232元/吨，同比下降6元/吨。财务层面上看，前三季度公司综合毛 利率为16.9%，较2024年同期的15.2%增加1.7个百分点。毛利率增加主要由于水泥产品销售成本较2024 年同期下降所致，但部分被骨料及其他分部的毛利率下降所抵消。 长江证券认为，就目前反内卷来看，水泥行业更多是围绕超产治理进行布局，有望出清一部分产能;更 重要在于，若严格按照备案产能生产，有望对生产秩序进行一定优化，真实产能利用率或一定改善。对 于过往产能利用率偏高的广东区域，边际供需改善带来的价格弹性值得期待。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and profit for the third quarter, driven by increased wafer sales and a favorable product mix, indicating a strong industry demand and operational efficiency [5][4][11]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 17.162 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.517 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.1% year-on-year growth [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 25.5%, up 4.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [1]. Capacity and Utilization - The monthly production capacity has expanded to over 1,022,750 8-inch equivalent wafers, up from 991,250 in the previous quarter [9][2]. - The capacity utilization rate reached a record high of 95.8%, increasing from 92.5% in the second quarter [4][11]. Sales and Market Segmentation - The company sold 2,499,465 wafers in the third quarter, marking a 4.6% increase from the previous quarter and a 17.8% increase year-on-year [11]. - The revenue from industrial and automotive sectors increased to 11.9% of total sales, while consumer electronics accounted for 43.4% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable to slightly increasing revenue for the fourth quarter, with a projected gross margin between 18% and 20% [11]. - The total revenue for the year is expected to exceed 9 billion USD [8].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and improved profitability [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, SMIC's revenue was approximately 49.51 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 3.818 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 41.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin stood at 23.2%, up by 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Quarterly Analysis - In Q3 2025, SMIC achieved revenue of 17.162 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [1]. - The net profit for Q3 was 1.517 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.1% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 25.5%, which is a 4.8 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [1]. - Capacity utilization rose to 95.8%, up by 3.3 percentage points from Q2 [1]. Capacity and Production - SMIC's production capacity exceeded one million wafers per month, indicating near full operational capacity [1]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, SMIC expects revenue to remain flat or increase by 2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin forecasted between 18% and 20% [2]. Market Reaction - On November 13, the stock price of SMIC rose by 2.9% in A-shares, closing at 123.1 yuan per share, while the Hong Kong shares increased by 3.21%, closing at 75.6 HKD per share, bringing the total market capitalization to 984.8 billion yuan [2].