农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/11/14-2025/11/27） 行 业 牧原股份赴港上市获证监会备案 2025 年 11 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业略跑赢沪深300指数。2025年11月14日—2025年11月27日， SW农林牧渔行业下跌3.79%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约0.18个百分点；细分 板块中，仅渔业录得正收益，上涨7.89%；动物保健、种植业、养殖业、 饲料和农产品加工均录得负收益，分别下跌0.85%、3.31%、3.34%、4.76% 和7.96%。估值方面，截至2025年11月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB （整体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.80倍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may face downward or upward pressure in different time frames [1]. - The agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, policies, and international trade [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Livestock (Pigs) - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price remains weak [1][2]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, monthly supply is abundant, and the planned daily slaughter of large - scale farms in November slightly increases compared to October. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until the first quarter of 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand is insufficient, and the average slaughter weight is increasing [2]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts may continue to be weak due to high - capacity realization and large - pig slaughter pressure at the end of the year. The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [3]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The expected increase in November's palm oil production in Malaysia narrows, and market sentiment shows signs of stabilization [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market anticipates an improvement in US soybean export demand and a possible Fed rate cut in December. In the industry, the progress of South American soybean planting is smooth, and the expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high. For palm oil, the expected month - on - month increase in Malaysia's November production narrows, and exports decline. For rapeseed oil, domestic supply is currently tight, but it may increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly, palm oil to oscillate, and rapeseed oil to oscillate strongly. The market may gradually stabilize [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread decreases [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Sino - US communication may boost market sentiment. La Nina is expected, and South American soybean planting is progressing. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to reach 440 million tons. Domestically, the profit of soybean imports is repaired, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high. The sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal increase, and the inventory of soybean meal decreases seasonally [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight. Factors include farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream replenishment needs, differences in grain quality and regional price differences, traders' rush to buy, and tight transportation capacity [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. In the short - term, the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price will continue to oscillate [11]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation [13]. - **Logic**: After the previous decline due to high export data in October and weak downstream procurement, the market rebounded due to the flood in southern Thailand. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The RU contract may face greater selling pressure than the NR contract [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, and there is no obvious trend [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Continue to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded recently, mainly due to the relatively stable trading of raw material butadiene. However, there is still pressure on the fundamentals and raw material side [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Under the game between long and short forces, it will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production. On the demand side, consumption has been good in recent months. The commercial inventory is accumulating, and the price is supported by cost and downstream procurement but faces hedging pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range. In the long - term, it is undervalued and is expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the medium - and long - term, there is a downward drive, but the cost side provides short - term support [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The supply pressure will increase as the new sugar is pressed. However, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and the support at 5300 yuan/ton should be monitored in the short - term [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - and far - term futures differs [17]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to oscillate within a wide range [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures will mainly oscillate widely [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The raw material price is weak, and offset paper oscillates at a low level [19]. - **Logic**: The weakening of the pulp market and light social demand affect the price. Although some paper mills want to maintain prices, the market remains under supply pressure [19]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists. There is price support in the short - term due to publishers' purchases, but it may oscillate weakly in the medium - term [20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Log prices are weakening and entering the deep - value area [21]. - **Logic**: The market is weak with no obvious buying interest. The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and demand is expected to be weak in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The supply is loose, demand has no incremental expectation, and the spot price is under pressure. It will maintain a narrow - range bottom - oscillating trend [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The overall commodity index shows different trends. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and industrial product index, shows slight increases, while the PPI commodity index shows a slight decrease [179]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 26, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.30% on the day, 0.55% in the past 5 days, 0.06% in the past month, and decreased by 2.68% since the beginning of the year [180].

Market Overview - On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 increased by 0.61%, the STAR Market 50 rose by 0.99%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.13% [4][6] - The best-performing sectors on November 26 were telecommunications (+4.64%), comprehensive (+1.79%), electronics (+1.58%), retail (+1.11%), and home appliances (+0.96%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-2.25%), social services (-0.97%), media (-0.82%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.8%), and banking (-0.79%) [4][6] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 26 was 17,971.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 3.952 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4][6] Important Recommendations - The report recommends Chengda Biological (688739) due to the synergistic effects of shareholder involvement and continuous innovation. The company is expected to see accelerated transformation and revenue growth driven by mergers and acquisitions and new vaccine commercialization [7] - Revenue forecasts for Chengda Biological from 2025 to 2027 are 1,347.93 million yuan, 1,418.37 million yuan, and 1,530.02 million yuan, with growth rates of -19.59%, 5.23%, and 7.87% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 200.23 million yuan, 222.63 million yuan, and 253.73 million yuan, with growth rates of 41.59%, 11.19%, and 13.97% respectively [7] Industry Insights Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The core viewpoint emphasizes deepening value in the agricultural sector and positioning for new cyclical opportunities. The market outlook indicates continued pressure on pig prices, uncertainty in beef prices, and persistent low prices for poultry, with intensified competition in feed and animal health sectors [8][9] - The report suggests that leading pig enterprises can maintain profitability through cost advantages and structural optimization despite production capacity constraints. The feed sector is expected to see growth potential for companies with cost control and integrated supply chains, while the animal health sector may benefit from pet care and international expansion [9][12] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial sector is anticipated to experience a rebound in 2026, characterized by a combination of high probability and favorable odds. The market outlook for this sector is cautious due to the high base in 2025, but a potential recovery is expected amid a long-term "slow bull" market for equities [10][13] - The report highlights that the asset and liability sides of the financial sector are expected to resonate positively, supporting the overall growth of the sector [13]

行业产能去化动力持续增强，去化速度或加快。我国养猪行业产能近期略有下降，总体处于近年来较高 水平。据统计局数据，截至9月末，全国能繁母猪存栏4035万头，较上月末少3万头，较去年末高点少37 万头。行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养头均亏损135元，较前 一周多亏21元。 草根调研来看，由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫情防控，养殖业所面临 的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策信号，政策方面值得重 点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三重压力，行业去产能动 力预计将逐渐增强。 太平洋证券发布研报称，养猪行业连续10周亏损，且近期处于中度亏损状态。上周末，主产区自繁自养 头均亏损135元，较前一周多亏21元。由于前期全国大部地区雨水较往年同期明显增多，不利于非瘟疫 情防控，养殖业所面临的疫情风险上升。自6月份以来，相关部门密集召开会议释放减产能的明确政策 信号，政策方面值得重点关注。我国养猪业目前面临着"市场价格下跌+疫情风险上升+政策施压"的三 重压力，行业去产能动力预计将逐渐增强。 太平 ...

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with an overall increase of 16.36% from January to November 2025, surpassing the index by approximately 3.18 percentage points [12][13][14] - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns, with significant increases in animal health (36.27%), fishery (35.22%), agricultural product processing (21.88%), feed (12.48%), breeding (11.53%), and planting (8.49%) [13] - Approximately 83% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with around 5% of stocks increasing by over 100%, and 17% recording negative returns [14][17] Group 2 - The breeding industry is experiencing a gradual reduction in the number of breeding sows, with a current stock of 40.35 million heads, which is 1.1% lower than the previous year [23][24] - The price of live pigs has shown a downward trend in 2025, with an average price of 11.65 yuan/kg as of November 24, down 26% from the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually recover in 2026 [26] - The profitability of pig farming has turned negative, with self-breeding losses at 135.9 yuan per head and external piglet purchases at 234.63 yuan per head, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026 [31] Group 3 - The meat chicken breeding sector faced challenges in profitability during 2025, with the average price of broiler chicks fluctuating and a significant decline in profitability [33][35] - The supply of yellow feathered chickens is expected to remain relatively abundant in 2026, with a high stock of breeding chickens [45][47] - The overall feed production in China is projected to continue its recovery, with a total production of 15.85 million tons in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [50] Group 4 - The prices of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal have shown fluctuations, with corn prices recovering from a low of 2115.59 yuan/ton to around 2300.88 yuan/ton by late November 2025 [52][53] - The global supply of corn is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 128.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, indicating limited price recovery potential [55] - The overall market for pet food in China is anticipated to grow, with an increase in exports and a rising domestic market [38][40]

Core Viewpoint - The recent losses in pig farming, combined with the implementation of capacity control policies, are expected to enhance the expectation of capacity reduction in the pig industry, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices. Low-cost, high-quality pig enterprises are likely to gain excess returns [1][3]. Pig Farming - The national breeding sow inventory fell below 40 million heads by the end of October, a reduction of over 350,000 heads compared to September, indicating gradual effects of capacity reduction [1][3]. - Pig prices initially declined but later showed slight recovery due to improved terminal consumption as temperatures dropped. As of November 21, the pig price was 11.62 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg [2]. - The average weight of pigs marketed increased to 128.81 kg as of November 20, with a week-on-week increase of 0.33 kg, driven by rising weights due to lower temperatures and increased marketing by farmers [2]. Cattle Industry - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, with the price of calves at 32 yuan/kg (up 0.63% week-on-week) and fattened bulls at 25.58 yuan/kg (down 0.16% week-on-week). The cumulative increase for calves since the beginning of the year is 32.73% [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce's investigation into import beef safeguard measures has been extended to November 26, 2025, due to complex case circumstances, warranting attention to upcoming import safeguard measures [4]. - Long-term supply tightness in beef is anticipated due to previous losses leading to significant capacity reduction, with prices expected to enter an upward cycle around 2026-2027 [4]. Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.03 yuan/kg as of November 14, reflecting a 31% decline from the cyclical peak. Continued losses in raw milk are expected to drive ongoing capacity reduction [4]. - As supply contracts due to capacity reduction, raw milk prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover in the future. Companies to watch include Yuran Dairy and China Shengmu [4]. Poultry Sector - The price of white feather broilers is under pressure due to reduced purchasing activity, with a current price of 7.15 yuan/kg (up 0.03% week-on-week) and chick prices at 3.48 yuan each (down 0.01% week-on-week). Ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may restrict upstream capacity [5]. - The average price of eggs is 6.25 yuan/kg (down 0.24% week-on-week), with chick prices at 2.80 yuan each (down 0.1% week-on-week). The ongoing avian influenza is causing a shortage of quality breeding stock, which may drive egg prices up in the future [5]. Agricultural Products - The USDA report for November has led to a pullback in soybean meal prices, with spot prices at 3070 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton week-on-week) and futures prices at 3012 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton week-on-week) [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, awaiting positive drivers, while attention should be paid to actual soybean purchases and South American planting weather [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown defensive characteristics amid recent market adjustments, with the agricultural index down 3.45%, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][12] - The pig market is experiencing weak prices, with a stabilization around 11.50 CNY/kg, driven by seasonal demand expectations, but overall supply exceeds demand, limiting price increases [5][16] - October saw a significant reduction in pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months, indicating a potential for price increases in the second half of 2026 [6][18] - The white feather chicken market is facing stable chick prices but declining meat prices, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding chicks updated, indicating supply chain pressures [30][31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector demonstrated resilience with a smaller adjustment compared to the broader market, as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 3.90% and 3.77% respectively [12] - Among agricultural sub-sectors, only aquaculture and seeds saw price increases, while others declined [15] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - Prices are fluctuating around 11.50 CNY/kg, with expectations of a demand increase due to seasonal factors, but slaughter rates remain low [16] - Losses in pig farming are increasing, with self-bred pigs losing an average of 136 CNY per head, and purchased piglets losing 235 CNY per head [17] - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a 1.1% decrease in breeding stock in October, with a target of reducing 1 million sows being halfway achieved [18][19] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable at 3.7 CNY per chick, with average profits around 0.8 CNY per chick, while meat prices have slightly decreased to 3.52 CNY per jin [30] - The number of breeding chicks updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% drop compared to the previous year, indicating potential supply issues [30][31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have decreased to 5512 CNY/ton, down 148 CNY from the previous week [35] - Soybean prices have also fallen, with Brazilian soybeans at 3816 CNY/ton, down 7.4% [35] - Corn prices have shown an upward trend, reaching 2227 CNY/ton, an increase of 16 CNY from the previous week [37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [78]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual reduction in production capacity in the pig farming sector, with the number of breeding sows in China dropping below 40 million as of October, reflecting a decrease of over 350,000 from September [2][35]. - The report suggests that the recent losses in pig farming, combined with capacity control policies, are likely to enhance expectations for production capacity reduction, which may lead to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][35]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as TianKang Biological, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture [2][35]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices initially declined but showed slight recovery later in the week, with an average price of 11.62 CNY/kg as of November 21, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg [11]. - The average weight of pigs sold increased to 128.81 kg, up by 0.33 kg week-on-week, driven by improved weight gain due to lower temperatures [24][35]. - The report indicates that the industry is currently facing losses, but the expected reduction in production capacity may lead to higher long-term price stability for quality pig farming companies [35]. Cattle Farming - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly decreased, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.58 CNY/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week, while calf prices increased to 32 CNY/kg, up 0.63% week-on-week [38]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with prices anticipated to enter an upward cycle between 2026 and 2027 [38]. Dairy Farming - The price of raw milk is currently at a low point, recorded at 3.03 CNY/kg, which is a 31% decrease from the peak [39]. - The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to continue driving production capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization and recovery in raw milk prices anticipated as supply contracts [39]. Poultry Farming - The report indicates a decrease in the enthusiasm for restocking broiler chickens, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.15 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.03 CNY/kg week-on-week [46]. - The price of chicken eggs averaged 6.25 CNY/kg, down 0.24 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery due to supply constraints from ongoing avian influenza outbreaks [46][49]. Agricultural Products - The report notes a correction in soybean meal prices following the USDA report, with spot prices at 3070 CNY/ton, down 28 CNY/ton week-on-week [62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring actual soybean purchases and planting weather in South America for future price movements [62].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].