Core Viewpoint - The company, Guosheng Technology, reported significant revenue growth in its photovoltaic business but faced a substantial decline in gross margin due to competitive pressures and falling prices in the solar industry [1][6][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 2.094 billion yuan, with photovoltaic business revenue reaching 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.12% [1]. - The gross margin for the photovoltaic business was -0.50%, a decrease of 16.90 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from photovoltaic modules and battery business was 1.908 billion yuan, up 125.03% year-on-year, while the gross margin was -0.82%, down 14.88 percentage points [1][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe competition, leading to irrational pricing and significant losses across the supply chain [7][8]. - The prices of key raw materials, particularly silicon wafers, have seen drastic declines, impacting the pricing of photovoltaic products [6][7]. - The market for photovoltaic products is characterized by structural oversupply, with global demand still strong but supply exceeding 1,100 GW against 600 GW of new installations [8][10]. Group 3: Contractual Details - The company has secured major contracts with state-owned enterprises, including a 539 million yuan contract for a 400 MW offshore photovoltaic project and a 749 million yuan contract for a 600 MW salt-light complementary photovoltaic project [10]. - The contracts were primarily obtained through bidding and business negotiations, with no related party transactions involved [4][10]. Group 4: Price Trends - The price of monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers dropped from 4.43 yuan per piece in January 2023 to 1.15 yuan per piece by December 2024, a decrease of 74.04% [6]. - The price of PERC battery cells fell from 0.85 yuan per watt in January 2023 to 0.275 yuan per watt by December 2024, a decline of 67.65% [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be strong in the short term, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors today included securities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while financials, telecommunications, photovoltaics, and dividends lagged [1] - The market showed a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks [1] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a potential main line for the second half of the year, with a focus on upstream sectors leading the way [3][4] - Recent meetings emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2015 [3][4] - The ongoing decline in PPI has drawn policy attention, suggesting potential supply-side adjustments in sectors like steel, coal, and cement [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products is significant, leading to price declines as firms engage in price competition [4][6] - Current demand conditions are similar to those in July of the previous year, but prices have adjusted downward, aligning better with supply-demand dynamics [6] - The performance of consumer goods differs, with companies increasingly adopting price reductions to boost sales volumes [6][7] Historical Context - Historical cases of supply-side contraction have shown that market reactions often lag behind policy announcements, with stock prices typically responding after initial skepticism [7][9] - Past supply-side reforms have led to significant price increases in commodities, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [9][12] International Factors - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with recent non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [12][13] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff strategies under the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty in the market [15][16]

经观评论 7月8日，33家建筑类企业联合发出建筑行业反内卷倡议书，共同推动行业转型，摒弃"内卷式"竞争。之前已经有包括汽车、纺织、玻璃、钢铁、光伏等在内 的几十个行业发出了反内卷的倡议书。中国经济的反内卷之战正在持续深入。 去年12月的中央经济工作会议首次提出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，拉开了反内卷之战的序幕。今年7月1日举行的中央财经委第六次会议要求，"依法依规治理 企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"，可以说进一步明确了当前反内卷的重点难点。 不得不说，这背后依然有地方政府的影子。还是以光伏行业为例，很多光伏项目既是地方政府招商引资的结果，也是政府扶持的样板企业。在一些地方政府 眼中，企业被并购或者退出市场就意味着项目失败。因此，即使对一些劣势企业，地方政府也是呵护有加，不惜持续补贴或以各种方式输血。在此情形下， 优胜劣汰固然难以实现，内卷式竞争也会进一步加剧。 我们认为，这是地方保护和市场分割的另一种体现。在市场经济环境里，交易本身就是资产保值和产业优化的利器。做生意不赚钱又不能及时止损，对于企 业来说资产会持续贬值，对于行业来说会造成"规模不经济"。产业冗余资产的并购重组是产业做 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on addressing key challenges and regulating low-price disorderly competition among enterprises [1] - A comprehensive "anti-involution" initiative is being launched to combat unhealthy competition driven by price undercutting and quality degradation [1][6] - The key to breaking the cycle of "involution" lies in policy support, industry self-regulation, and proactive enterprise strategies, including technological innovation and global market expansion [1][2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Companies must embrace technological innovation to enhance product performance and reduce production costs, thereby gaining a competitive edge [2] - The example of Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) illustrates how innovation can help companies escape price wars by creating differentiated products [2] - The shift from passive capacity control to active transformation through technology integration is essential for industry advancement [2] Group 3: Global Market Expansion - In a saturated domestic market, companies are encouraged to explore international markets, but must ensure genuine market integration rather than merely exporting [3][4] - Successful international expansion requires establishing local entities, gaining trust, and creating effective value connections within the supply chain [3] - Collaborative efforts among leading enterprises and their supply chains are crucial for achieving global market presence [4][5] Group 4: Industry Ecosystem Improvement - The root cause of "involution" is identified as low-level repeated construction and overcapacity, necessitating supply-side structural reforms [6][8] - Policies should be implemented to limit new capacity projects and promote the elimination of outdated production capacity [6][8] - Industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions can enhance market stability and foster innovation by reducing the number of participants [7][8] Group 5: Capacity Control Measures - Recent trends in the photovoltaic market show significant price drops, prompting companies to adopt self-regulation agreements to manage capacity [7] - The focus on capacity control includes both limiting new projects and adjusting existing capacity through mergers and restructuring [7][8] - The government can support the elimination of outdated capacity through regulatory measures and incentives for industry upgrades [8]

第二，虽然沪指呢收出了十字墓碑的形态，但是呢深成指和创业板走势呢非常健康，尾盘呢非但没有下 跌，反而翘尾上涨，这就说明呢主力尾盘偷袭离开去产能板块和银行板块，抄底了大科技板块。 今天大盘冲高回落，收出了很长的上引线，这是不是传说中的十字墓碑，而且尾盘集合竞价之后，银行 为首的大权重标标啊集体跳水，这牛市还在吗？和讯投顾冯珂认为，牛市没有结束，大盘上涨趋势不 变，原因有三个： （原标题：和讯投顾冯珂：创业板下周预计迎来主升浪，大科技4朵金花将全面启动） 首先今天银行板块大跳水，散户苦银行久矣，只有银行跌倒，主力资金呢才能流入中小盘板块，大盘呢 才能普涨，散户呢才能吃饱。 之前说是都在二三月份牛市的第二阶段，那么最近几个月呢大盘一直处于震荡市的关键原因呢就是成交 量不足，而成交量不足的原因就是没有信心，现在楚国与我们妥协，牛市证券板块变身牛市猛男价格飙 涨的同时，业绩呢也都大涨10倍以上，形成了戴维斯双击，我天天在直播间强调大盘呢能否上涨，就看 证券证券涨和场外资金呢就有信心进场，成交量呢就会放大，水涨则船高。 所以综合以上三点，今天只是一次经典的洗盘而已。今天反内卷板块，地产、光伏、玻璃等等都阶段性 的见顶了， ...

自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for polysilicon is improving, but actual transaction volumes remain limited, influenced by policy expectations and price fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 41,330 yuan/ton, up 1.94% on the day and over 16% for the week [1] - Since July, the market has shifted to a bullish sentiment due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a cumulative increase of over 28% in polysilicon futures prices over three weeks [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures to 9% and raised margin requirements for speculative trading to 11% [1] Group 2: Spot Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 37,100 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.92%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 35,600 yuan/ton, up 6.27% [2] - Despite a significant price increase of 25% to 35% in polysilicon quotes, the volume of new orders remains limited, indicating a cautious market response [2] - The current market focus has shifted towards policy regulation, with the demand side showing signs of weakness as downstream production of solar modules has been adjusted downwards [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current market environment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, highlighting the disparity between market sentiment and actual demand [3] - The rise in polysilicon prices is positively impacting industrial silicon prices, suggesting a potential increase in demand for industrial silicon due to improved profitability in polysilicon [3]

2025年7月1日，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意 见》。该意见明确提出，所有会员企业要深刻认识产能置换政策对于促进水泥行业结构优化、转型升级 的重要意义。 一方面，随着行业供给端的优化，市场竞争秩序将得到规范，水泥价格有望回归合理区间，也将提升水 泥产品的销售价格和毛利空间；另一方面，行业加速整合，落后产能逐步被淘汰，行业集中度将进一步 提高。东兴证券指出，市场剧烈竞争下的优胜劣汰叠加"反内卷"等各项政策落地，都共同发力加速建筑 建材行业落后产能的淘汰，加速行业供给端优化。这将进一步巩固优秀和龙头公司发展和成长的确定 性，带来估值修复和业绩弹性，预计水泥行业"反内卷"政策的率先落地将为行业带来更好的供给端优 化。(秦声) 天山股份在公告中表示："报告期内，公司紧抓管理精细，降本控费，推进价格修复与成本优化双向发 力，水泥销售价格同比上升，销售成本同比下降，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比大幅减亏。" 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1—5月，全国累计水泥产量6.59亿吨，同比下降4%，降幅较1—4月扩大 1.2个百分点，较去年同期收窄5.8个百分点。下游需求方 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels for the steel industry due to the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the steel industry from low-cost homogeneous competition to high-end differentiated competition, which is expected to lead to a reversal in industry profitability and valuation levels [1][4]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices and profit levels declining. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for black metal smelting and rolling industries has dropped to 89.8, the lowest among five sub-industries [2][4]. - The current state of the steel industry shows a divergence in profitability between upstream and midstream sectors, with upstream mining absorbing most of the industry's profits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Status - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand, with PPI for black metal smelting and rolling industries at 89.8, indicating a decline in prices and profits [2]. - The gross profit margin for black metal smelting and rolling industries is only 5.48%, significantly lower than the 19.57% margin for black metal mining [2]. Comparison with 2015 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-demand situation in the steel industry has improved compared to 2015, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus [3][4]. - The current "anti-involution" policy is less administratively forceful than the 2015 supply-side reforms, which were primarily focused on eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Policy Impact and Guidance - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent homogeneous competition and emphasizes the need for market mechanisms and industry self-regulation to optimize and upgrade production capacity [4]. - The policy includes stricter standards for capacity elimination and encourages the adoption of green and intelligent production methods [5]. Inventory and Profitability Outlook - The steel inventory is expected to rise from the bottom, with significant reductions in social inventory levels for rebar and wire rod [6]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have declined due to the real estate market downturn, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore market sentiment and improve profitability [6]. Valuation Observations - The current median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the steel industry is 35.51X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as supply-demand structures improve [6].