Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the chemical sector has risen due to the Middle East situation, with a significant increase in volatility of relevant varieties and full manifestation of risk premium. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high prices. The change in the inspection method of Brazilian soybean exports may drive the shortage expectation of domestic near - month contracts in the short term, but the supply is sufficient in the medium and long term. Therefore, both the chemical and feed sectors are expected to be strong in the short term and oscillate downward in the medium and long term [2][5] - The current market faces two major themes: the short - and medium - term tension in the Middle East situation, which causes price increases of crude oil and chemical varieties and may lead to economic recession due to inflation expectations; and the anti - involution theme, which is a long - term domestic policy. It is recommended to focus on the Middle East situation in the short and medium term and promote the implementation of anti - involution policies in the long term [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - The recent market hotspot is the theme market centered around the Iran war, with the market mainly involving crude oil and chemical products. Raw material shortages have led to the expectation of production device shutdowns and load reductions in downstream chemical products, affecting varieties such as caustic soda, PVC, and plastics. Due to the unpredictability of the war development path and high volatility of relevant varieties, chasing up is not recommended [4] Commodity Analysis Chemicals - The sharp rise in crude oil prices has affected downstream chemicals such as olefins and aromatics through cost - end increase and raw material shortage. In addition to short - term price increases caused by raw material shortages, the long - term demand negative feedback due to inflation - induced stagflation and economic recession should also be considered. The chemical sector is strong in the short term and is expected to oscillate downward in the medium and long term [4] Agricultural Products - The change in the inspection method of Brazilian agricultural product exports has slowed down soybean exports, causing a significant increase in the near - month contract of domestic soybean meal. Tension in the Middle East has increased freight rates and caused fuel oil shortages, which may lead to poor global soybean transportation and drive up the price expectation of domestic soybean meal. However, in the medium and long term, the global soybean supply is sufficient, and with the expectation of anti - involution in the domestic pig industry, the far - month contract of soybean meal has limited room for continuous large - scale increases [4] Precious Metals - Inflation expectations have disrupted the US interest - rate cut rhythm, reducing the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and precious metals are under short - term pressure. However, in the medium and long term, silver remains strong due to positive factors such as AI and photovoltaic [4] Black Sector - The demand in the black sector continues to be weak, and there is currently no driving contradiction [4] Capital Flow and Data - The table of sector capital flow shows the absolute amount and percentage of capital flow in various sectors, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] - The tables of black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural product weekly data show price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various commodities [8][10][11]

Market News - China's LPR data for March will be released on March 20, with February's data showing the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged for the ninth consecutive month [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds target rate at 3.50%-3.75% during its meeting on March 19, with market participants closely watching for signals regarding future rate cuts amid rising energy prices due to Middle East conflicts [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, but concerns in the market remain high as oil prices have risen for four consecutive weeks [4] Sector Events - NVIDIA's GTC 2026 conference is taking place from March 16 to 19, showcasing advancements in AI computing power and next-generation GPU architecture [5] - Huawei is hosting the "Huawei China Partner Conference 2026" in Shenzhen on March 19-20, focusing on strategic collaboration and digital transformation [6] - The second Commercial Space Industry Development Conference will be held in Shenzhen on March 17-18, discussing advancements in space technology and satellite applications [7] Individual Company News - Daikin Heavy Industries announced that the UK government will eliminate import tariffs on 33 wind power components starting April 1, 2026, which will not affect the company's previously exported products [9] - Gree Electronics plans to acquire 100% of Chengdu Ruicheng Micro Technology and 45.64% of Naneng Microelectronics through a share issuance and cash payment [10] - Beijing Investment Development intends to transfer its real estate development assets and liabilities to its controlling shareholder, Beijing Infrastructure Investment Co., which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring [10] - Teradyne won a bid for a 2 million kW wind power project in Qinghai, with a procurement amount of approximately 150 million yuan [11] - Zhejiang Fu Holdings won a bid for a hydropower project in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, with a total bid amount of 412 million yuan [11] - Haisco's subsidiary received approval for a clinical trial of a drug intended for metabolic diseases [12] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 34 companies will have their lock-up shares released this week, amounting to 822 million shares with a total market value of 26.805 billion yuan [14] - The peak of lock-up expirations is on March 19, with eight companies releasing shares worth a total of 10.071 billion yuan, accounting for 37.57% of the week's total [14] New Stock Calendar - Six new stocks are set to be issued this week, raising an estimated total of 8.22 billion yuan [18] - Notable upcoming issuances include Hongming Electronics and Shiya Technology, with expected fundraising amounts of approximately 2.03 billion yuan and 2.168 billion yuan, respectively [18] Institutional Outlook - CITIC Securities highlights three key issues: the impact of Middle East conflicts on supply chains, the potential shift in market styles due to weakening global financial conditions, and the accelerating disruptive innovation from AI [21] - The firm suggests focusing on sectors with pricing power and low valuations, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy [22] - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes the strategic opportunities arising from the Middle East situation, suggesting that China could benefit from increased trade and investment ties with the region [23] - Galaxy Securities notes that the A-share market has shown resilience amid global adjustments, with a focus on high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key investment themes [24]

Economic Outlook - The OECD composite leading indicator suggests that China's export growth may further increase in July, with the G7 countries' indicator rising to 1% in February from 0.9% previously, indicating a potential upward trend in China's cumulative export growth [2] - Oil prices have surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil reaching $98.7 per barrel (up 8.6%) and Brent crude at $103.1 per barrel (up 11.3%) [2] - The decline in residential property sales has narrowed, with the transaction area in 67 cities increasing by 2% compared to the same period last year as of March 13 [2] Demand Analysis - Retail sales of passenger cars have seen a significant decline, with approximately 1.034 million units sold nationwide, down 25.4% year-on-year [3] - The land premium rate has decreased, with a rate of 4.5% as of March 8, down from 7.86% in February [3] - Cement shipment rates remain low, with a rate of 19.6% as of March 13, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] Production Insights - Construction activity remains subdued, with the recovery rate of construction sites lower than the same period last year, at 42.5% as of March 11 [3][17] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has continued to decline, standing at 23% as of March 12, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than last year [3][17] Trade Developments - The growth rate of container throughput at ports has significantly decreased, with a year-to-date growth rate of 11% as of March 8, down from 12.4% the previous week [3][23] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has seen a year-on-year decline of 15.6% as of March 13, compared to an average decline of 3.3% in January and February [3][25] Price Trends - Commodity prices have risen sharply, with the South China index increasing by 5.2% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index up by 3.9% [3][41] - The price of WTI crude oil has increased by 8.6% to $98.7 per barrel, while Brent crude has risen by 11.3% to $103.1 per barrel [3][41] - The listing prices of second-hand houses have accelerated their decline, with first-tier cities down 1.1% and nationwide down 0.8% as of March 2 [3][44] Interest Rate and Debt - Long-term bond yields have slightly increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bond yields reported at 1.2768%, 1.5619%, and 1.8143% respectively as of March 6 [3][56] - The government plans to issue 128.2 billion yuan in new local bonds in the week of March 16, with a total of 3.831 trillion yuan in new special bond issuance planned for March [3][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The market is bullish, trading on the gradual recovery of spot transactions and the cost increase caused by war factors. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The main drivers for the bulls are anti - deflation, anti - involution, and future production cut factors in the glass industry. There will be a repeated switch between price increases driven by production cut expectations and price drops due to weak demand and weak basis. In the first half of 2026, the market may be weak and volatile, while in the second half, it may turn bullish [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term: It may be bullish. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The market support from March to April comes from potential maintenance peaks on the supply side, improved exports, and cost increases due to war. However, it is pressured by supply surplus, high forward futures premiums, and potential downstream production cuts. Its price movement follows that of glass, but with lower volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Supply - This week, there were slight fluctuations in domestic float glass production lines. Two lines in Shahe and Inner Mongolia were ignited, with a total capacity of 1200 tons, and one line in Shahe was ignited with a capacity of 1050 tons. As of March 12, 2026, there were 295 glass production lines (199,400 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, including 208 in production and 87 on cold repair. The daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 1.08% compared to March 5. The average开工率 of the float glass industry this week was 71.05%, a 0.24 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 74.08%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease. As of March 12, the daily loss of float glass was 52,150 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week, and the weekly loss was 361,450 tons, a 1.43% increase [2]. - There are potential new ignition lines with a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons/day, potential old - line复产 lines with a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons, and potential cold - repair lines with a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons/day [6][7][8]. - Usually, the supply side tends to have复产 from the second to the third quarter, but low prices limit the复产 space. From January to March, the market was mainly in a production - cut state, and the current in - production capacity is about 146,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day. The main variable for supply contraction is environmental protection factors (petroleum coke to natural gas), and the supply expansion from复产 is mainly due to capacity replacement [9][10]. Price and Profit - Most prices are stable, with some increasing slightly by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe is around 1060 - 1090 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in central China's Hubei region it is around 1080 - 1140 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the market price is around 1260 - 1346 yuan/ton (some prices increased by 20 yuan/ton). - The basis has weakened due to the increase in futures prices. The profit using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits using natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 106 and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [13][17][21][23]. Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recently, market transactions have improved, and inventory has decreased. Currently, the inventory is relatively high, and most regions' inventories are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history. However, recent transactions have improved significantly, and it is expected that the inventory may continue to decline. The key for the later market is whether the market can improve significantly from March to April to boost sales [31][33]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are basically synchronized, and the price difference changes little [35]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - It is necessary to focus on whether the market can improve in mid - to late March or April. The short - term market has slightly improved. As of this Thursday, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.0 - 10.5 yuan/square meter, unchanged from the previous week, and the price has changed from a decline to stability. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.0 - 17.5 yuan/square meter, also unchanged from the previous week, with some low - price sources being traded [40][42]. Capacity and Inventory - The capacity has slightly contracted. As of a certain time, there were 405 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation nationwide, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,700 tons/day, a 1.82% increase from the previous period. The sample inventory days are about 42.17 days, a 0.22% increase from the previous week, and the growth rate has narrowed by 0.74 percentage points compared to the previous week. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve slightly after the second quarter, and the inventory may start to decline [44][45][50]. 纯碱 Supply and Maintenance - This week, the supply of纯碱 was adjusted at a high level, with minor changes in enterprise equipment. The weekly output of纯碱 was 809,200 tons, a 0.22 - ton increase from the previous week, a 0.27% increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of纯碱 this week was 87%, up 0.23% from last week. - There may be a maintenance peak in the market supply from late March to April. Some enterprises are currently under maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shandong Haihua with an 80% operating load, Anhui Debang having been under maintenance since July 8, 2025, etc. Zhongyan Kunshan plans to have a 20 - day maintenance starting on March 25, and Hubei Shuanghuan plans to have a 15 - day maintenance in mid - April [3][54]. Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9317 million tons, a 15,500 - ton decrease from last Thursday, a 0.80% decrease. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 1.0136 million tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 918,100 tons, a 1,800 - ton decrease from the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 196,500 tons, an 11.32% increase [3][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton. The low - end price in Shahe is 1250 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - cash merchants have increased significantly, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little, with some light soda ash prices increasing by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of manufacturers are concentrated around 1300 yuan/ton in North China and 1120 - 1200 yuan/ton in Central China [64][68]. - There are several planned or under - construction soda ash projects in China, such as Jinshan Chemical with a planned expansion of 2 million tons/year by the joint - alkali method (no clear plan yet), Xiangheng Yanhua with an 800,000 - ton/year expansion by the joint - alkali method (planned to be put into production from 2026 - 2027), etc. [70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puhua Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Building Materials [8]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with a recent decline of 1.50% in the sector index from March 9 to March 13, 2026. Cement prices have shown a slight increase, while glass and fiberglass manufacturing have seen declines [1][13]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to support demand for construction materials. Key measures include optimizing real estate policies and promoting the renovation of old housing [1]. - The cement industry is witnessing a recovery in demand due to seasonal factors and strong funding support for infrastructure projects. However, challenges remain in the housing construction market due to tight funding and tax reforms [19]. - The glass market is showing signs of slight price increases due to rising costs, although overall demand remains weak. The report emphasizes the need to monitor order volumes and production line changes in the coming weeks [33]. - Fiberglass demand is stable, with structural growth opportunities identified in wind energy and aerospace sectors. The report suggests that prices may stabilize or increase in the medium to long term [6][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of March 13, 2026, the national cement price index is 331.4 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.31%. Cement output has surged by 91.99% to 760,300 tons, indicating a strong recovery [19]. - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker production is 45.55%, up by 5.72 percentage points from the previous week, while the cement inventory ratio has increased to 56.25% [19]. - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing regional disparities, with some areas responding positively to price increases while others remain cautious due to weak demand [19]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of March 12, 2026, is 1,177.42 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. Inventory levels have decreased by 209 million weight boxes compared to the previous week [33]. - The report indicates that while glass prices are experiencing slight increases, the overall demand remains limited, necessitating close monitoring of order volumes and production changes [33]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass is showing a slight price increase, with demand remaining stable. The report highlights potential growth in high-end applications such as wind energy and aerospace [6][7]. - The average price for non-alkali fiberglass yarn is 3,716 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.24% [6]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is benefiting from policies aimed at stimulating demand for renovations in second-hand and existing homes. The report continues to recommend stocks in this sector due to their long-term growth potential [1]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is experiencing a mild recovery in demand, with prices showing slight increases. The report emphasizes the need to monitor production costs and market dynamics closely [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key stocks in the construction materials sector, including Yao Pi Glass, Yinlong Co., Puhua Co., San Ke Tree, and Bei Xin Building Materials [8]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector is currently experiencing a bottoming phase, with a recent decline of 1.50% in the sector, while cement prices have shown a slight increase of 0.96% [1][13]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to support demand for construction materials [1]. - There is a notable increase in local government bond issuance, which is projected to alleviate fiscal pressure and potentially accelerate municipal engineering projects [1]. - The glass industry is seeing a gradual recovery, with prices showing a slight increase due to rising costs, although overall demand remains weak [33]. - The fiber glass market is experiencing stable demand, particularly in high-end applications, while carbon fiber prices are expected to stabilize amid rising production costs [7][33]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of March 13, 2026, the national cement price index is at 331.4 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.31% increase from the previous week. Cement output has surged to 760,300 tons, a 91.99% increase week-on-week [19]. - The cement clinker kiln capacity utilization rate has risen to 45.55%, up by 5.72 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - The report notes that the recovery in cement demand is supported by strong funding in the infrastructure sector, although the housing market remains under pressure due to tight financing [19]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of March 12, 2026, is 1,177.42 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%. Inventory levels have decreased by 209,000 weight boxes compared to the previous week [33]. - The report indicates that while there is a slight improvement in downstream purchasing sentiment, overall demand remains limited, and high inventory levels persist [33]. Fiber Glass Industry Tracking - The market for non-alkali glass fiber has seen a slight price increase, with demand remaining stable but limited. Export orders are performing reasonably well despite some restrictions [6]. - The report anticipates potential price increases for glass fiber products in the medium to long term due to rising production costs [6]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - Carbon fiber prices have seen a slight increase, with production costs rising significantly due to geopolitical factors affecting raw material prices [7]. - The report highlights a gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in wind energy and aerospace applications [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices, including natural gas and aluminum, showing an upward trend [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from legislative measures aimed at reducing "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving quality, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express in overseas markets [2] - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to improve due to rising chemical prices, with a focus on companies such as Milkway, Hongchuan Wisdom, Xingtong, Shenghang, and Yongtaiyun [3] - The aviation sector is projected to recover with a 3.34% year-on-year increase in international passenger flights for the summer season, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4] - The shipping sector is closely monitored for developments in the US-Iran conflict, which may impact oil and container shipping rates [5] - The road and rail sector is seen as defensive amid geopolitical disturbances, with a focus on coal transportation due to rising oil prices [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.0% from March 7 to March 13, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.2%, underperforming the market by 1.2% [1][13] Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping and Ports - The export container shipping market is facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1072.16 points, a 1.7% increase week-on-week but an 11.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - The oil shipping index (BDTI) is at 2813.8 points, down 1.9% week-on-week but up 209.5% year-on-year [39] Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with a 10.55% year-on-year increase in daily flights and a 3.34% increase in planned international flights for the summer season [4][57] - Brent crude oil prices have risen to $103.14 per barrel, impacting operational costs for airlines [70] Rail and Road - The rail sector is experiencing upward momentum, with coal transportation gaining importance due to rising oil prices [6][82] - The road sector shows a 40.64% week-on-week increase in truck traffic on highways, although year-on-year figures are down by 9.28% [85]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in PX and acrylic acid due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil and certain petrochemical product supplies, leading to increased volatility [2] - The report suggests that the current round of industry expansion is nearing its end, and measures like "anti-involution" are expected to catalyze a recovery in industry profits [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable and low-cost raw material suppliers, particularly in coal chemical companies, and recommends focusing on leading companies in fine chemicals with favorable supply-demand dynamics [2] Industry Dynamics - As of March 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the SW basic chemical sector is 31.15, at the 87.79% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.81, at the 82.94% historical percentile [10] - The SW oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 16.96, at the 50.88% historical percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.64, at the 55.57% historical percentile [10] - The report notes that 77 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, with 74% of products experiencing month-over-month price rises [9][31] Price Trends - PX prices increased to an average of 10,372.42 CNY/ton, up 23.61% week-over-week and 53.83% year-over-year [33] - Acrylic acid prices rose to an average of 13,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-over-week increase of 63.52% and a year-over-year increase of 106.35% [34] - The report indicates that the domestic PX operating rate decreased by 3.72 percentage points to 86.02%, with production down 3.85% to 734,500 tons [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional chemical leaders that demonstrate resilience and are expanding into new materials, which are expected to see performance and valuation improvements [10] - Suggested stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, Hengli Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Longsheng among others [10] - The report identifies Zhejiang Longsheng and Yake Technology as "golden stocks" for March [2][12][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from legislative measures aimed at reducing "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving quality, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to improve due to rising chemical prices, with a focus on companies such as Milkway, Hongchuan Wisdom, and Xingtong [3] - The aviation sector is projected to recover with a 3.34% year-on-year increase in international passenger flights for the summer season, supported by rising oil prices and the upcoming travel peak during the May holiday [4] - The shipping sector is closely monitoring developments in the US-Iran conflict, which may impact oil and container shipping rates [5] - The road and rail sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, enhancing the competitiveness of rail transport, particularly for coal transportation [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.0% from March 7 to March 13, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.2%, underperforming the market by 1.2% [1][13] Express Delivery - The total volume of express delivery collected was approximately 3.923 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the total delivery volume was about 4.116 billion pieces, up 8.7% year-on-year [2] Logistics - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) reached 5051 points, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China reached 15,525, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, with domestic flights increasing by 11.28% [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1072.16 points, a week-on-week increase of 1.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [5][23] Road and Rail - The total number of trucks passing through national highways was 46.014 million, a week-on-week increase of 40.64% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.28% [6][85]

Price Trends - The current price increase is a result of multiple domestic and international factors, expected to continue at least until mid-Q2 2026[3] - The geopolitical conflict has amplified oil price increases, which could lead to an earlier positive PPI if Brent crude oil averages above $77 in March[3][4] - If Brent crude oil maintains an average of around $80 for the year, PPI could remain positive throughout 2026 despite potential declines in the second half[3][4] Economic Indicators - Domestic economic recovery is underway post-holiday, with production, real estate, and passenger transport indicators showing steady week-on-week improvement[5] - The year-on-year growth rate of most indicators has increased, except for a few like the high furnace operation rate[5][19] - The oil transportation index (BDTI) saw a year-on-year growth rate drop from 248% to 180%, indicating a peak in trade disruptions due to geopolitical tensions[5][19] Monetary and Financial Conditions - The US dollar index has surpassed 100, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions, while gold prices are under pressure[4][24] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to 1.81%, while short-term yields have decreased, indicating a widening yield spread and rising concerns about imported inflation[24][25] Risks and Considerations - There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict and its impact on asset prices[7][26] - The path of domestic demand recovery remains uncertain, influenced by the sustainability of price increases and external risk shocks[7][26]