1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report Zinc ore supply remains at a high level, and TC continues to rise. The expectation of zinc ingot production increase is high. However, some zinc smelters are shifting to the production of zinc alloy ingots, and part of the zinc ingots are converted into in-transit inventory in the form of direct delivery to downstream, which cannot be well reflected in the accumulation of social inventory. Recently, the commodity atmosphere is favorable, and the long sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market is strong. The rapid upward movement of the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure also boosts the zinc price [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In June, the lead price continued to rise. The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 3.4% at 17,205 yuan/ton, with the total open interest in unilateral trading decreasing by 0.83 thousand lots. The LME Lead 3M contract closed up 3.79% at $2,041.5/ton. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 110 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -25 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 50 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai - Guangdong price difference of 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous data, the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: This week, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons. The operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including those on US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs in China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis text is provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 32.5 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.2% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to May, the total zinc ore output was 141.12 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.5%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 49.15 million dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 85.3% and a month - on - month change of -0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 220.38 million dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 52.7% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 54.62 million metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 25.7% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 240.29 million metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.6%. As of the end of June, the port inventory of zinc concentrate was 20.9 million physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 63.5 million physical tons [27]. - **Processing Fees**: As of the end of June, the domestic TC for zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $65/dry ton [29]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In May 2025, the zinc ingot output was 54.94 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.5% and a month - on - month change of -1.1%. From January to May, the total zinc ingot output was 265.49 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.7%. In May 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 2.53 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -45.3% and a month - on - month change of -10.4%. From January to May, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 15.80 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -20.5%. In May 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 57.47 million tons, with a year - on - year change of -1.3% and a month - on - month change of -1.5%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 281.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: As of the end of June, the operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.21%, with a raw material inventory of 1.5 million tons and a finished product inventory of 38.0 million tons. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 46.54%, with a raw material inventory of 1.0 million tons and a finished product inventory of 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.72%, with a raw material inventory of 0.2 million tons and a finished product inventory of 0.6 million tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In May 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 58.28 million tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of -8.3%. From January to May, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 279.75 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.2% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a shortage of -0.81 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.53 million tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Difference**: In March 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 1.98 million tons. From January to March, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 6.81 million tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.66 million tons. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.24 million tons. The domestic basis in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.34 million tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 2.42 million tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -$22.04/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$50/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.136, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,012.95 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders in Shanghai zinc increased, the net long position of investment funds in LME zinc rose, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年06月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：宏观情绪提振，钢价小幅上涨 | 2025/6/27 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | 同差 | | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 242 . | 3 | 0 . | 1 | 2 . ...

Group 1 - The report from Itaú BBA predicts a 5% decrease in sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-southern region for the 2025/26 season, amounting to 590 million tons, with significant declines in the western and northwestern parts of São Paulo state [1] - Despite the decrease in crushing volume, sugar production is expected to increase by 2.7% to 41.2 million tons, with a sugar-to-cane ratio of 52% and an ATR (Total Recoverable Sugar) of 141 kg/ton [1] - Current spot prices for sugar in China show an increase, with Guangxi Sugar Group reporting prices between 6000 - 6080 yuan/ton, up by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5790 - 5830 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing upward movement, with ICE cotton prices rising by 0.78% to 68.32 cents per pound, and domestic cotton prices in Xinjiang increasing by 65 yuan/ton to 14832 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% for two consecutive days, and cotton prices in Zhengzhou breaking through 13600 yuan/ton due to low commercial inventories and weather disturbances in Xinjiang [1] - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of improvement, with expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a slight strengthening of cotton prices, although the fundamental drivers remain limited [1]

2025年06月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：情绪释放，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 26 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | ...

2025年06月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：四轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 703.0 | -3. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market faced multiple pressures of oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory this week, with a pessimistic market trend. In the short term, the supply - demand drivers for soda ash were insufficient, and the price remained weak after breaking through the previous low. In the long term, the soda ash futures and spot markets may continue to be under pressure, although the summer maintenance period may have a certain phased impact on futures prices [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Analysis - The cost of soda ash production is mainly composed of fuel. Rising prices of raw salt, coal, and natural gas will increase production costs, which may lead to price increases and strengthen the market. Recently, the continuous decline in soda ash costs has weakened the cost - side support and increased the downward pressure on prices [8] Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - **Macroeconomic and Policy Impact**: RMB depreciation (USD/CNY exceeding 7.2) supported export - oriented enterprises, with the export quotation of East China soda ash to Southeast Asia rising 5 - 8% month - on - month, but domestic demand remained weak. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut (over 60% probability of a rate cut in September) led to a short - term rebound in soda ash futures due to macro - sentiment, but the industrial logic of high inventory restricted the increase [9] - **Futures Expectation**: The futures market anticipates a peak season for photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year (e.g., the installation volume in Q4 may increase by 30% quarter - on - quarter). Some funds have pre - arranged in the far - month contracts (2509), resulting in a smaller decline in futures prices than in spot prices and a narrowing of the basis [11] Associated Product Analysis - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Each ton of soda ash production consumes about 1.5 tons of raw salt, accounting for 30% - 40% of production costs. In the joint - alkali process, each ton of soda ash production consumes about 0.3 tons of coal, with coal costs accounting for about 20% - 25% [12] - **Mid - stream Processing**: Soda ash (sodium carbonate) and caustic soda (sodium hydroxide) are used in industries such as glass, chemicals, and textiles, and can be substituted in some scenarios. The production of 1 ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali process produces 0.8 tons of synthetic ammonia as a by - product, and the price of synthetic ammonia affects the profits of joint - alkali enterprises [12] - **Downstream Terminal Industries and Consumption - related Products - Glass**: In June, the daily melting volume of float glass was 165,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%, and the number of cold - repaired production lines increased, suppressing the demand for soda ash. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in June was 182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%, supporting the incremental demand for soda ash, but the current inventory days of photovoltaic glass were 25 days (the warning line is 20 days) [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].