1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine its elasticity. Nickel prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The contradiction at the mine end has faded, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range fluctuation judgment. Stainless steel is expected to show a low - level oscillation pattern, with macro hype sentiment fading and the influence of actual verification increasing [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the contradiction at the nickel mine end fades, the smelting end logic suggests a narrow - range fluctuation. The premium of Indonesian nickel mines has回调, and the cash cost of pyrometallurgy has decreased by 1.4%. The global visible inventory of refined nickel shows a mild increasing trend, and the expected increase in low - cost supply in the long - term still drags down the market. However, the de - stocking of nickel - iron inventory at a high level slightly boosts the nickel price valuation [1]. - **Macro Factors**: Domestically, the Politburo meeting emphasizes implementing previous supportive measures, and the market valuation may回调 marginally. Overseas, the weakening US dollar supports non - ferrous metals but suppresses industrial external demand expectations [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. Stainless Steel Market - **Production Arrangement**: In August, the stainless - steel production arrangement is 3.23 million tons, with a marginal increase of 0% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year increase has slightly declined to 2.1%. In Indonesia, the August production arrangement is 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth is 1.2% [2]. - **Cost and Profit**: The nickel - iron price has been revised up to 920 yuan/line, and the cash cost of stainless - steel billets is about 12,584 yuan/ton. The warehousing profit has回调 from a high of 3.0% to 1.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: After the production cut in June - July, the stainless - steel inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of about 5%, but it is still 5% higher than last year. The nickel - iron inventory has decreased by 10% month - on - month but is 56% higher year - on - year, which may drag down the steel price [2][5]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per single line [6]. - Environmental violations have been found in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park, and possible fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6][7]. - The production of some nickel - iron smelting plants in Indonesia has been suspended due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. Futures Data - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,840 [8]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 106,856, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 124,683 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of over - supply in the stainless steel and ferronickel markets is difficult to reverse. With weak demand, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline gradually, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell short on rallies. The short - term operating range of the main contract of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Nickel Ore**: Although the impact of the rainy season persists, with the release of government nickel ore quotas and weak downstream demand, the price of nickel ore is weak. The procurement volume of smelters for pyrometallurgical ore has decreased significantly, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable but weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline due to demand drag [12]. - **Ferronickel**: On the demand side, the inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have shown signs of stabilization. Some traders are speculatively stocking up, providing some support for stainless steel demand. However, the current inventory is still high, and the production schedule in July only decreased slightly, so the short - term supply - demand contradiction is still large. On the supply side, some ferronickel production lines in Indonesia were converted to produce nickel matte in July, and it is expected that ferronickel production will decrease slightly. Overall, the oversupply pressure of ferronickel has slightly eased, but the situation is difficult to reverse significantly in the short term, and the profit of iron plants is expected to fluctuate at a low level [12]. - **Intermediate Products**: For high - grade nickel matte, the premium over ferronickel is at a high level recently, and the production drive is strong. Some ferronickel production lines have started to convert to produce high - grade nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply in July will increase significantly compared to the previous month. For MHP, the supply of hydrometallurgical ore is stable, and the production is normal, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. Overall, the supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [12]. - **Refined Nickel**: This week, the nickel price fluctuated weakly, closing at 119,770 yuan/ton on Friday, a 3.69% decrease from last week. At the macro level, the US reciprocal tariffs have basically been implemented, and Powell's hawkish statement during the week led to a strong rise in the US dollar index, suppressing the non - ferrous metals sector. In the spot market, as the futures price declined, the trading enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium slightly rebounded [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Refined Nickel Spot**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,710 yuan/ton, up 3,170 yuan/ton or 2.59% from last week; the price of Russian nickel was 123,960 yuan/ton, up 3,070 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The LME closing price was 15,265 US dollars, up 0.13% from last week, and the SHFE closing price was 119,770 yuan, down 3.69% from last week [15]. - **Futures**: The LME nickel premium was (204.7) US dollars/ton, down 10.3 US dollars/ton from last week, and the SHFE nickel contract showed a decline [15]. - **Nickel Premium**: The Russian nickel premium was 350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount was 192.79 US dollars/ton, slightly rebounding from last week [23]. - **Secondary Nickel Price**: The domestic high - grade ferronickel ex - factory price was 903 - 922 yuan/nickel point, with an average price increase of 3 yuan/nickel point from last week. The domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,130 - 27,610 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 90 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel Ore**: The port inventory in China continued to increase. As of August 1, the nickel ore port inventory was 9.9436 million tons, a 0.7% increase from the same period last week. The price of nickel ore was under pressure. On August 1, the price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 52.1 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.1 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was 24.8 US dollars/wet ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from last week; the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was flat from last week [33][36]. - **Ferronickel**: In June, the production of Indonesian MHP was 39,000 nickel tons, basically flat month - on - month; the production of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant month - on - month increase [43]. - **Intermediate Products**: As of August 1, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,496 US dollars/metal ton, and the MHP coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.845, unchanged from last week; the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,053 US dollars/metal ton, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient relative to LME nickel was 0.88, unchanged from last week [48]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, remaining at a historically high level [53]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand in the manufacturing and real estate industries [54]. - **Import and Export**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - **Inventory**: This week, the global refined nickel inventory decreased slightly. According to Mysteel data, the visible inventory in China and LME on August 1 was 242,000 tons, a decrease of 422 tons from the same period last month [62]. - **Cost**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. - **Demand**: The demand for nickel sulfate is related to the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [70]. - **Cost and Price**: Not specifically analyzed in detail in this part of the summary. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel generally exceeded the total demand, and the supply - demand gap showed an increasing trend in 2025. In 2025, the total demand was 3.6024 million nickel tons, and the total supply was 3.7688 million nickel tons, with a gap of 166,400 nickel tons [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

宏观情绪降温，关注成本端走势 市场要闻与数据 1、国内外重要会议告一段落，部分内容表述略不及市场预期，市场情绪有所回落。 2、国家统计局数据显示7月份制造业PMI为49.3%，环比下降0.4%，制造业景气水平有所回落，对市场情绪产生一 定影响; 市场分析 化工日报 | 2025-08-01 成本端，地缘局势有再度扰动油价，特朗普缩短对俄罗斯宽限时间，二级制裁引发市场对俄罗斯原油供应中断担 忧。同时特朗普警告伊朗不要重启核设施否则可能会再次发动轰炸，中东隐忧再起也支持油价反弹；但基本面方 面EIA数据显示美国原油及成品油均累库，供需面不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-10.05美元/吨）。近期亚洲PX负荷基本持稳，基本面变化不大， 市场主要交易宏观情绪。PX延续低库存格局，但缺乏更多利好下现货浮动价持稳，在需求端没有明显利空的情况 下，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购，PXN下方有支撑，关注宏观以及原油走势。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -15 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费176元/吨（环比变动+8元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费374元/吨（环比变动-15元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no specific rating for inter - period and inter - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment has eased, but the fundamentals of propylene have not improved significantly, and the propylene market is mainly in a weak consolidation. Supply pressure persists, demand is lack of resilience, and the cost side has short - term support but also uncertainties. Propylene prices may continue to fluctuate weakly [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6545 yuan/ton (-25), East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (+0), North China spot price is 6245 yuan/ton (-5), East China basis is -195 yuan/ton (+25), and North China basis is -300 yuan/ton (+20) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene operating rate is 73% (-1%), PDH capacity utilization has increased, and production has increased month - on - month. The profit margins of different production methods vary, and the operating rates of related production methods also show different trends [1][2] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Propylene import profit is -257 yuan/ton (-74), and the price differences between different regions (such as South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR) are presented [1][39] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Different downstream products have different operating rates and profit margins. For example, PP powder operating rate is 36% (-2.95%) with a production profit of 105 yuan/ton (+5); epoxy propane operating rate is 73% (+0%) with a production profit of -26 yuan/ton (+104), etc. [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Propylene factory inventory is 31750 tons (+1520) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Core Viewpoints - PX/PTA prices follow the rise of oil prices. Geopolitical situations have disrupted oil prices, and the market is concerned about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The Middle - East situation also supports the rebound of oil prices. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's own fundamentals have little change, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period). After the terminal weaving replenished raw materials, the inventory pressure of filament factories decreased significantly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The short - fiber factory has different pressure levels, and the bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - The strategy includes a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, shorting PTA processing fees at high levels for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period trading strategy [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [4][5] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [4][5] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [4][5] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [4][5] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [4][5] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4][5] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the spread between original and regenerated fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [4][5] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [4][5]

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - **News**: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - **News**: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situations are disturbing oil prices, and concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and Middle - East tensions support oil price rebounds. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's fundamental supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. Polyester load is currently strong, but the recovery of demand needs to be monitored. PF is affected by downstream production cuts, and PR's processing fees are expected to return to the range after repair [3][4][5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - The report presents polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][91][95]