分析师：何慧 【策略】 单边策略：目前主力09合约关注20日均线压制情况，短期1380成为多空分水岭，盘面围绕联碱成本在1230-1320运行。 套利策略：目前纯碱9-1价差在-10附近，几乎平水，考虑到夏季季节性检修，以及年底天然碱新增产能投产计划，9-1正套参与。 FG-SA09合约价差为-270左右，4月中旬玻璃-纯碱价差走弱，目前仍未止跌迹象，在-320至-360之间再尝试参与多玻璃空纯碱操作。 套保策略：目前碱厂库存绝对高位，上游企业可依据自身库存情况关注09合约在盘面大幅升水现货时，在1400-1450附近卖出套保 机会。下游玻璃企业刚需补库，可在盘面低于现货交割成本时买入套保。 【风险】检修超预期（上行风险）、煤炭及相关燃料走强（上行风险）、重回累库（下行风险）、宏观政策不及预期（下行风险） 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.04.30 【观点】4月在中美关税政策冲击下，商品市场弱势运行，叠加碱厂检修装置复产，纯碱期现价格联动下行。供应方面，碱厂5月检 修计划增多，市场存供应缩 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 30, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Yuyu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019884), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. Oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecast: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2,800 and 3,300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a historical percentile of 68.5% over 3 years. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2,450 and 2,750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a historical percentile of 0.819 over 3 years [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Trader Inventory Management**: For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3,300 - 3,400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2,850 - 3,000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3,100 - 3,200 [3]. Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Bullish Factors - Port and oil mill soybean inventories continue to rise. With the increase in the operating rate and state reserve auctions, supply in some areas has gradually recovered. There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to tariff disturbances. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [11]. Bearish Factors - After the subsequent arrival of soybeans, the supply will be smoothly connected. The demand side is cautious about long - term stocking, and the near - term demand is mainly based on previous contracts and spot purchases. In April, about 850,000 tons of soybeans arrived at ports, but port clearance delays may affect the final oil mill crushing volume. In May, 1.15 million tons are expected, and in June, 1.05 million tons are expected. Feed mill physical inventories have reached an annual low [6][7][8]. Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,008 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,833 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,964 | - 21 | - 0.7% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,370 | - 29 | - 1.21% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,472 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,588 | - 53 | - 2.01% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,052.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.286 | - 0.0022 | - 0.03% | [9][13] Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 175 (up 26), M05 - 09 is - 131 (down 16), M09 - 01 is - 44 (down 10). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 3,450 (down 50), and the basis is 486 (down 29). - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is - 102 (up 23), RM05 - 09 is - 116 (up 1), RM09 - 01 is 218 (down 24). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2,588 (down 10), and the basis is 0 (up 43). - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread is 852 (down 50), and the futures spread is 376 (up 32) [14]. Import Costs and Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5,443.5196 | - 33.5155 | 0.1024 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3,742.75 | 9.06 | 74.44 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (47%) Cost Difference | - 1,629.3528 | - 3.2149 | - 21.5309 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1,677.4796 | - 33.5155 | - 155.7915 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 236.9058 | - 57.233 | - 0.2086 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 15 | - 125 | - 83 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 9 | - 121 | - 52 | [15]

Core Insights - The asphalt futures business spans the entire industry chain, including upstream production, midstream trading, and downstream applications, with significant roles played by refineries, traders, and large enterprises [1] - The asphalt market is currently facing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations and financial pressures on refineries and traders [3] - A case study of Company C illustrates effective risk management through basis trading and spot distribution, enhancing trade profits while alleviating financial strain [2][4] Industry Overview - Upstream production primarily involves refineries dealing with crude oil and fuel oil, employing a "lock raw materials and sell forward" strategy [1] - Midstream trading sees traders and futures merchants engaging in arbitrage and hedging, while downstream procurement is dominated by large enterprises using buy hedging strategies [1] - The asphalt futures market is crucial for price risk hedging and speculative opportunities, with increasing sensitivity of the spot market to financial market dynamics [1] Market Dynamics - Asphalt prices are influenced by various factors, including crude oil price movements, supply-demand conditions, and seasonal demand variations [1] - The current market scenario shows a significant reliance on Shandong's local refineries, which account for approximately 60% of the national asphalt supply [2] Company C's Strategy - Company C, a trading entity, utilized a basis trading model in collaboration with a futures company's risk management subsidiary to mitigate financial and inventory pressures [2][4] - In January 2024, the risk management subsidiary locked in a price of 3,500 CNY/ton for 20,000 tons of asphalt, anticipating a rebound in prices despite weak demand [4] Results and Impact - From March to May 2024, the market behaved as expected, with stable spot prices and weakening futures, leading to a widening basis [5] - By the end of May, Company C successfully reduced capital occupation and transferred inventory risk while repurchasing asphalt at a lower market price [5] - This case exemplifies the diverse and effective services that futures can provide to the real economy, benefiting both buyers and sellers in the asphalt industry [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant demand for cold-rolled steel strips (轧硬) in the Boxin region, known as the "hometown of metal sheets in China," where many galvanized and color-coated processing plants are located, primarily focusing on exports [1] - A company, referred to as Company A, operates as a trader of cold-rolled steel strips in Boxin, with a monthly sales volume of 200,000 to 250,000 tons, and maintains a high level of inventory to serve local processing enterprises [2] - Due to market conditions and pricing factors, local processing enterprises have reduced their agreements with steel mills, leading to increased reliance on traders like Company A for procurement [1][2] Group 2 - Company A engaged in a hedging operation using the HC2505 contract to manage its inventory risk, with an initial basis of -160 yuan/ton, as the market faced pressures from various external factors, including U.S. tariff policies [3] - Following the Spring Festival, the demand for cold-rolled steel strips increased, leading to a strong performance in spot prices, while futures prices remained weak due to external influences, resulting in a widening basis to 30 yuan/ton [3] - Company A decided to close its hedging position after analyzing the market, believing that the basis would likely narrow in the future, while also purchasing out-of-the-money put options to further mitigate potential price declines [3] Group 3 - The hedging strategy allowed Company A to avoid risks associated with inventory devaluation after the Spring Festival, resulting in additional profits of several million yuan due to the basis expansion [4] - By investing a small amount in out-of-the-money put options, Company A effectively managed the risk of further price declines without increasing its overall risk exposure [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt companies, highlighting their financial performance and market dynamics in 2024 and early 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: In 2024, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported losses of 7.9 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, primarily due to declining lithium prices. The industry's profitability is increasingly reliant on non-energy metal businesses or hedging strategies [1][2]. - **Market Recovery Signs**: By Q1 2025, there are indications of improvement in energy metal companies' performance, with Tianqi Lithium returning to profitability, suggesting a potential recovery despite ongoing challenges in the lithium market [3]. - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: The lithium market is facing downward pressure, with prices challenging the critical support level of 70,000 yuan. Recent prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have dipped below this threshold, impacting the entire supply chain [4][9]. - **Cost Reduction Limitations**: The industry has exhausted many cost-cutting measures, with limited new strategies emerging. Projects like the lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe are being approached cautiously due to low price levels affecting investment decisions [5][8]. - **Nickel Market Outlook**: Nickel companies are expected to see improved performance in Q2 2024, benefiting from rising prices that have not yet fully reflected in stock valuations [6][7]. - **Cobalt Export Regulations**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export control policies are under evaluation, with potential extensions of export bans if pricing expectations are not met. This could significantly impact market dynamics and stock prices [12][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The DRC's export controls and the exit of major players like Zijin Mining complicate the nickel supply chain, leading to procurement difficulties and increased costs [11]. - **Cobalt Inventory Concerns**: Current cobalt inventories are low, and the market is experiencing operational disruptions due to export bans, which could lead to price surges if supply constraints persist [14][15]. - **Rare Earth Export Restrictions**: New export bans on heavy rare earths are causing significant disruptions in the magnetic materials industry, with potential long-term impacts on production and supply chains [17][19]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and others are expected to benefit from improved performance in the cobalt and nickel sectors, especially if they can effectively hedge against price declines [16][21]. Conclusion - The energy metals sector is navigating a challenging landscape characterized by price volatility, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions. However, there are signs of recovery and potential investment opportunities as companies adapt to these challenges and explore new strategies for profitability.

Report Overview - Report Date: April 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Weak Demand Squeezes Upstream Profits, Trades in a Weak Range [2] - Analyst: Shao Wanyi, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market faces a situation of weak supply and demand. Weak demand squeezes upstream production profits, leading to a reduction in upstream output. In the short term, with weak demand, the price rebound space is limited, and the market will mainly trade in a weak range [4][6] - The price of the LC2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton [7] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for single - side trading, focus on reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and suggest a 30% buy - hedge ratio and a 10% sell - hedge ratio [7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Trends**: The LC2507 contract broke through 70,000 yuan/ton and then oscillated around 68,000 yuan/ton. The 2507 contract closed at 68,180 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2505 contract closed at 68,380 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price was 69,800 yuan/ton, down 1,650 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM basis (2505 contract) strengthened by 290 yuan/ton to 1,420 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 2505 - 2507 contracts was 200 yuan/ton, strengthening by 60 yuan/ton [3] - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Prices**: Most products in the lithium industry chain showed price declines. For example, industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade) was 68,050 yuan/ton, down 2.30%; battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, down 2.31% [12] 2. Supply Side of Lithium Salt Upstream - Lithium Ore - **Supply**: This week, lithium carbonate production continued to decline. Due to the cost - price inversion, many external - mining enterprises began to reduce or stop production since mid - April. As lithium prices fall, upstream companies' price - holding mentality is strong, which may lead to a decrease in long - term contract purchases and an increase in spot market purchases, further strengthening the basis [4] 3. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Midstream - Lithium Salt Products - **Demand**: Affected by US tariffs on China, battery cell manufacturers postponed order notifications to cathode material manufacturers in May. Cathode material manufacturers are in a loss state, and there are concerns about a possible month - on - month decline in production volume. As of last week, the annual new energy vehicle sales were 2.92 million units, with a cumulative year - on - year growth of 33%, but the growth rate was lower than expected [4] - **Inventory**: The number of futures warehouse receipts was 32,000 tons, and the social inventory was basically the same as last week, about 132,000 tons [5] 4. Consumption Side of Lithium Salt Downstream - Lithium Batteries and Materials - **Production and Operation of Downstream Products**: The production and operation data of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries are presented through various charts, including monthly production, monthly operating rates, import and export volumes, and installed capacity [28][29]

镍&不锈钢日报 管城瀚 2025-04-25 07:46:49 镍&不锈钢：多空交织下，预计恢复震荡走势 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.8 | 32.75% | 66.9% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | 理 | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | ...

Report Summary - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Correction Nearing End, May Resume Sideways Movement [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xiayingying, Guanchenghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The intraday market continued a sideways and bullish trend. Fundamentally, the decline of ferronickel is nearing its end, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum. Given the tariff situation, short - term trading is recommended. [3] Detailed Summaries Nickel Futures - The predicted price range of SHFE nickel is 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, with the current volatility (20 - day rolling) at 32.75% and the historical percentile of the current volatility at 66.9%. [2] - Inventory management strategies include shorting SHFE nickel futures based on inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, shorting call options, and buying far - month SHFE nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs. [2] - Procurement management strategies include shorting put options and buying out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan. [2] - The latest values and changes of SHFE nickel main - continuous, consecutive contracts, LME nickel 3M, trading volume, open interest, warrant quantity, and basis of the main contract are presented. [4][6] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values and changes of stainless steel main - continuous, consecutive contracts, trading volume, open interest, warrant quantity, and basis of the main contract are presented. [7] Nickel Industry Inventory - The latest values and changes of domestic social inventory, LME nickel inventory, stainless steel social inventory, and nickel pig iron inventory are presented. [8] Other Data - There are also multiple charts showing trends of nickel and stainless steel futures prices, spot prices, production profit margins, and price premiums, etc. [10][12][14][16][19][21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 114.6 billion RMB in 2024 and 25.63 billion RMB in Q1 2025, with year-over-year changes of -1.3% and +10.6% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.5 billion RMB and 1.28 billion RMB, reflecting year-over-year increases of +64.3% and +49.0% [1][4] - The primary drivers for the high profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 are the profitability from pig farming hedging and the rapid growth of overseas feed business. The report is optimistic about overseas expansion, industry recovery, and cost advantages supporting feed sales growth [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the company's feed sales volume increased by 8.0% and 25% year-over-year, reaching 24.4 million tons and 5.95 million tons respectively. The overseas feed sales maintained a growth rate of around 40% [2][3] - The company achieved over 1 billion RMB in profit from pig farming through futures hedging in 2024, turning a profit of approximately 230 RMB per head. The overseas feed business also saw significant profit growth, estimated at 300-400 million RMB year-over-year [2] Market Opportunities - The company is actively expanding into the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and Latin America feed markets, with a solid foundation in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Ecuador, and Egypt. There is still potential for growth in per capita meat, egg, and milk consumption in certain countries [3] - The domestic business is expected to recover starting in 2025, supported by a rebound in fish and shrimp prices due to a decline in aquaculture seedling volume and a recovery in pig inventory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts of 5.02 billion RMB and 5.48 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, respectively, and introduces a new forecast of 7.04 billion RMB for 2027. The target price is raised to 63.4 RMB, corresponding to a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [4][8]

以下文章来源于一个人的八卦 ，作者木精灵zjs 一个人的八卦 . 闲来无事聊八卦，忙时有事稍后看。你若亦有八卦事，欢迎随时来分享。 文 | 木精灵zjs 来源 | 一个人的八卦 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 倒爷一词，出现于上世纪80年代，流行于上世 纪80年代中后期至90年代初期。 在从计划经济转向市场经济的过程中，尤其是在价格双轨制时代，一些人利用计划内商品和计划外商品的价格差，在市 场上倒卖有关商品进行盈利，被人们戏称为倒爷。 倒爷的本质就是倒卖价格差，利用信息差和渠道差，最终实现价格差。这其实也是所有贸易的本质。我觉得倒爷两字， 能很形象地形容贸易商，所以今天就拿来借用一下，来形容一下我们铁矿贸易商。 从我2009年加入铁矿行业至今，已经15个年头。这期间，伴随着铁矿市场的巨大波动，以及铁矿市场交易模式的慢慢 走向成熟，铁矿市场格局的改变，倒爷们也经历了从风光无限到彷徨迷茫到步入困境的发展历程。 01 风光时刻 在矿圈，根据实力的强弱，倒爷总体可以分为两类。 第一类有很强的经济实力，能自己从国外进口铁矿或者请代理商进口铁矿，或者能从进口方先把铁矿自己买下来囤在手 里，等价格合适时机再出货。这 ...