市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为6578亿、1078亿和1755亿，净融资额为2621 亿、-430亿和736亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模2368亿，净融资额1667亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模3076亿，净融资额1068亿。可转债新券发行3只，预计融资规模21亿元。 债市策略展望 二级市场回顾 海外市场 美国CPI/PPI表现均不及预期，显示关税对通胀冲击尚未完全显现，市场对美联储降息预期上升。10年 期美债收盘在4.41%，较前周下行10BP。 权益市场 上周A股宽基指数大多小幅下跌。具体而言，万得全A下跌0.27%，万得微盘股指数下跌0.07%，沪深 300收跌0.25%，科创50下跌1.89%。A股成交放量，日均成交额1.37万亿，周度日均成交量增加1628.23 亿。截至2025年6月12日，全A融资余额18089.79 亿，较6月5日增加94.60亿。 上周债市震荡中小幅走强。主要影响因素包括：资金面、央行买断式逆回购公告、中美伦敦磋商、以伊 冲突等。 流动性跟踪 上周，OMO净回笼，临近税期，资金前松后紧，周五央行提前公告新一轮6月期买断 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight pullback after a rebound in April, influenced by accelerated theme rotation, the realization of expectations from China-US trade negotiations, and concerns over tariff uncertainties [1][2] - The Middle East conflict has a minimal substantive impact on the Chinese stock market, primarily causing emotional shocks, as China's diversified energy supply reduces reliance on Middle Eastern oil [1][4] Key Points on Market Dynamics - The current equity market lacks a clear main line, with innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors performing well, while technology sectors are experiencing frequent rotations [1][5] - The valuation levels are above the median of the past decade, indicating a need for market adjustments due to the crowded trades in previously high-performing stocks [1][5] - The convertible bond market has seen a slight decline in prices and valuations since early April, improving cost-effectiveness for investors [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The medium to long-term outlook for the equity market in 2025 remains positive, supported by capital market policies and monetary easing, which are expected to attract incremental funds [1][7] - Short-term adjustments are anticipated due to limited marginal benefits and the cautious sentiment of investors entering the earnings forecast window [1][7] Sector-Specific Insights - The recovery of military orders in 2025 is expected to significantly boost industry demand, with the banking sector showing strategic allocation value due to its high dividend and low volatility characteristics [3][8] - The banking convertible bond market is undergoing a large-scale exit, with a focus on short-term bonds with high yields as replacements [3][9] Investment Recommendations - In the new consumption sector, attention is drawn to relatively low-priced stocks with potential for price adjustments, such as Pop Mart and related trends [10] - Other sectors worth considering for stable cash flow and profitability include public utilities and agriculture, with specific recommendations for companies like Xinao and Sanxia Energy [11] - In the military sector, companies like Guokong and Ziguang Guomi are highlighted as having high investment potential due to the rapid growth of orders [12][14] Risk Considerations - The downgrade of Hengtai's credit rating is attributed to reduced asset scale and revenue, along with significant losses in the previous year, although no substantial risks are identified from a bond perspective [15]

存款利率调降满月，银行负债端有何变化 20250615 摘要 中美经贸关系虽短期缓和，但技术竞争结构性矛盾未解，长期对抗和脱 钩风险犹存。回顾历史，权益市场对利空已钝化，关税缓和期中小盘成 长板块或有较好表现，因前期跌幅较大。 自 2024 年 9 月以来，决策层稳定政策预期，股市风险溢价系统性下移， 无风险利率下降推动资金入市。短期政策托底下，权益市场下行空间有 限，地缘政治冲击后有望重回上行通道。 当前转债平均价格偏高，转股溢价率略低于 4 月初，投资者情绪趋谨慎， 但为后续反弹提供估值空间。平衡型和偏股型转债估值相对较低，预计 仍具跟涨弹性。 4 月以来十几只转债评级下调影响可控，投资者对信用风险有预期。规 避业绩恶化、行业风险及非标年报标的，6 月评级下调冲击或有限。 银行转债加速退出，约 900 亿资金需寻找替代底仓。选择包括高股息稳 定现金流类（银行转债、公用事业）、短久期可转债（盛弘通 22）、周 期性强双低类（农林牧渔如牧原希望）。 中美经贸关系对权益市场的影响如何？ 自中美日内瓦协议落地以来，美方新增了多项对华限制措施，包括 AI 芯片出口 管制指南、芯片设计软件销售限制以及撤销中国留学生签 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of continued tariff conditions and global geopolitical tensions, the equity market may continue to experience index fluctuations, waiting for the progress of the technology industry to drive a new round of upward technology market. The convertible bond market showed strong resilience last week, with a slight increase in valuation. After the successive announcements of early redemptions of Hangyin and Nanyin convertible bonds, the problem of bottom - position allocation in the convertible bond market has become more urgent. Attention can be paid to underlying stocks with better fundamentals among the convertible bonds with positive YTM. If large - balance convertible bonds have their ratings downgraded, it may be a good opportunity to increase positions in convertible bonds. When selecting bonds, one can take advantage of the inconsistent driving factors of the dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio volatility and look for targets driven by performance and/or valuation, starting from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Focus from June 9th to June 13th Stock Market - The equity market showed an overall fluctuating pattern last week. Against the backdrop of intensified global geopolitical conflicts, the prices of gold and crude oil rose significantly, and the introduction of export control measures related to rare earth permanent magnets drove the non - ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors to perform well. Affected by the suspension of trade - in subsidy activities in some regions, consumer sectors such as food and beverage and household appliances adjusted significantly. Most Shenwan primary industries closed down last week, with non - ferrous metals (+3.79%), petroleum and petrochemical (+3.50%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+1.62%), media (+1.55%), and pharmaceutical and biological (+1.40%) leading the gains; food and beverage (-4.37%), household appliances (-3.26%), building materials (-2.77%), and computer (-2.52%) performing poorly [1][9][10]. Bond Market - The bond market strengthened overall last week. The inflation in May remained low, the year - on - year export declined to 4.8%, the capital cost continued to decline, the overnight capital interest rate reached a new low this year, and the intensified geopolitical conflicts and the decline in market risk appetite all benefited the bond market. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.64% on Friday, down 1.07bp from the previous week [1][10]. Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues closed down last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.02% for the whole week, the median price decreased by 0.63%, the arithmetic average parity calculated decreased by 0.95% for the whole week, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.61% compared with the previous week. In terms of individual bonds, Jinling (football concept), Jinji (reactive dyes), Haibo (steel structure engineering), Liande (display module equipment), and Zhite (aluminum formwork for construction) convertible bonds led the gains; Zhengyu (automobile shock absorbers and components & early redemption announced), Huati (intelligent transportation system), Haomei (aluminum profiles), and Tianyang (financial IT) convertible bonds led the losses. Most industries in the convertible bond market closed down last week, with communication (-4.42%), media (-3.67%), automobile (-1.63%), and computer (-1.58%) experiencing relatively large declines, while social services (+8.88%), non - bank finance (+1.37%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.79%), and banks (+0.78%) performing well. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 346.489 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 69.298 billion yuan, showing an increase compared with the previous week [2][10][13][14][18]. Views and Strategies from June 16th to June 20th - The equity market may continue to fluctuate, waiting for the technology industry to drive a new round of upward market. The convertible bond market showed strong resilience last week, with a slight increase in valuation. After the early redemptions of Hangyin and Nanyin convertible bonds, attention can be paid to underlying stocks with better fundamentals among the convertible bonds with positive YTM. If large - balance convertible bonds have their ratings downgraded, it may be a good opportunity to increase positions. When selecting bonds, one can take advantage of the inconsistent driving factors of the dividend and technology sectors to reduce portfolio volatility and look for targets from three aspects: performance - driven, event - catalyzed, and dividend and defensive [3][19][20]. Valuation Overview - As of June 13th, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 39.18%, 27.52%, 18.77%, 13.77%, 8.02%, and 4.3% respectively, at the 79%/57%, 72%/46%, 65%/36%, 69%/46%, 58%/30%, and 64%/28% percentile values since 2010/2021. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was 0.43%, at the 12%/3% percentile values since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 30.27%, at the 51%/27% percentile values since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was - 17.65%, at the 12%/18% percentile values since 2010/2021 [21]. Primary Market Tracking Newly Announced Issuances Last Week (June 9th - June 13th) - Luwei Convertible Bond (118056.SH): The underlying stock is Luwei Optoelectronics (688401.SH), belonging to the electronics industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 615 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA -. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for semiconductor and high - precision flat - panel display mask expansion projects, acquisition of minority shareholders' equity in Chengdu Luwei, and supplementing working capital and repaying bank loans. - Dianhua Convertible Bond (127109.SZ): The underlying stock is Xiangtan Dianhua (002125.SZ), belonging to the power equipment industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 487 million yuan, with a credit rating of AA. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for a project to produce 30,000 tons of spinel - type lithium manganate battery materials and supplementing working capital. - Anke Convertible Bond (123257.SZ): The underlying stock is Anke Innovation (300866.SZ), belonging to the electronics industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 1.105 billion yuan, with a credit rating of AA+. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for R & D and industrialization projects of portable and household energy storage products, new - generation intelligent hardware products, warehousing intelligent upgrading, full - link digital operation center, and supplementing working capital [30][31][32]. Upcoming Listings - Hengshuai Convertible Bond (123256.SZ) is expected to be listed on June 17th. The underlying stock is Hengshuai Co., Ltd. (300969.SZ), belonging to the automobile industry. The convertible bond issuance scale is 328 million yuan, with a credit rating of A+. The funds after deducting issuance fees will be used for a project to build a new automobile parts production base in Thailand, an expansion project of an annual production of 19.54 million automobile micro - motors and cleaning and cooling system components and R & D center expansion, and R & D center expansion [33][34]. Issuance Progress - Last week, the exchange approved the registration of 1 company (Libote), and the general meetings of shareholders passed the proposals of 2 companies (Xianghe Industry and Lianrui New Materials). As of now, there are 82 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 129.19 billion yuan, including 8 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 14.43 billion yuan and 4 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 2.93 billion yuan [35].

2025年一季度，公募FOF基金数量增加，规模上升，发展呈现出一定回暖迹象。据Wind数据，截至 2025年一季度末，公募FOF数量上升至512只，规模回升至1511亿元，创近一年新高，且目前延续增长 趋势，截至6月11日，公募FOF总规模为1618亿元。 进入2025年以来，郑科执掌的另一只FOF产品——鹏华易选积极3个月持有A(019247)表现同样亮眼。据 Wind数据，截至2025年6月10日，该基金年内净值增长率为7.56%，同类排名8/209。 能够打造出多只业绩抢眼的FOF产品，体现出基金经理郑科专业的投研实力。资料显示，郑科有20年证 券从业经验，17年大资金FOF/MOM一线投资经验，现任鹏华基金首席资产配置官、资产配置与基金投 资部总经理/基金经理，历经多轮牛熊，资产配置实战经验丰富，受到市场广泛认可。 分析后市投资环境，郑科指出，长期而言，人工智能时代提升增长高度，而社会主义制度提供必要的增 长宽度。前者是人民重视的，而后者恰好是被忽视的。社会主义的本质要求是共同富裕，解决公平性问 题恰好能为经济提供新的增长引擎。中国潜在的中高速增长存在可能性，权益市场理应呈现慢牛状态。 短期而言，美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is expected to be in a period of both offense and defense in the second half of 2025, with the valuation having a bottom and upward flexibility, and the upward space will increasingly depend on the performance of the equity market. If the equity market breaks through, the convertible bond valuation will resonate accordingly [3][73]. - With the accelerated conversion of bank convertible bonds, the allocation of underlying convertible bond varieties is limited. It is necessary to seek better solutions from the strategic and industry levels [3][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上半年转债走势及估值分析 - **Market performance**: As of June 5, the year - to - date returns of the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index were 4.55% and 6.62% respectively, slightly higher than the median return of convertible bond funds (4.53%). The equity and convertible bond markets had a significant pullback in April due to Trump's tariff disturbances but then recovered to the highest point since the beginning of the year [12]. - **Market structure**: In the first half of the year, small - cap and low - rated convertible bonds outperformed, but they had a large pullback in April due to tariff policies and then quickly recovered their losses. The theme style switched from technology to financial real estate. From January to February, AI + robotics were dominant, and from March to May, the financial real estate style was stronger [13][18]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks continued to rise. In 2025, the trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks reached a new high. The "April decision" was completed instantaneously under the tariff disturbance and then quickly recovered [23]. - **Price**: Since May 2025, the median convertible bond price has remained above 120 yuan, approaching the stage high in March 2025. After the tariff shock and the ebb of the technology main line, the differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds was not obvious [26]. - **Valuation**: The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation has been fluctuating around 30%. Structurally, the bottom - support value of high - priced bonds was strong in the first half of the year, and the valuation tended to compress; the bottom - support value of medium - priced bonds increased slightly, and the valuation increased; the pure bond value and valuation of low - priced bonds both increased, mainly benefiting from the increase in conversion value [27][34]. 3.2下半年转债攻守兼备，估值下有底上有弹性 - **Supporting factors for valuation**: The equity market is not expected to have a deep correction, and the low - interest - rate environment will remain unchanged; the trend of supply contraction and undiminished demand remains unchanged; although institutional behaviors such as funds reflect a cautious attitude, the attention is still high; the concern about the downgrade of convertible bond ratings may be better than expected [3][73]. - **Potential suppressing factors for valuation**: The credit rating of existing convertible bonds is declining, and the scale of high - quality assets is decreasing, which restricts the institutional allocation space; the number of near - maturity convertible bonds is increasing, and the impact of time - value attenuation cannot be ignored [3][73]. - **Incremental funds**: The marginal incremental funds mainly come from securities firms and private funds [68][72]. 3.3银行转债加速退出下的底仓配置品种探索 - **Status of bank convertible bonds**: Since 2023, the balance and proportion of bank convertible bonds have been declining. As of June 2025, the proportion of bank convertible bond balances has fallen back to around 20%. The issuance rhythm has slowed down, and there have been no new issuances since 2023 [77][78]. - **Strategic level**: The valuations of convertible bonds with ratings of AA + and above are high, and the space for additional allocation is limited. It is necessary to appropriately relax the rating and market - value restrictions. In both the medium - low and high - parity ranges, the low - valuation style has long - term advantages. The valuation difference between new and old bonds is expected to further polarize [3][84][106]. - **Industry level**: The industries that can replace bank convertible bonds are mainly banking, power equipment (mainly from photovoltaics), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (mainly from pork). The available bank convertible bonds with prices below 120 yuan are Xingye, Ziyin, and Qingnong convertible bonds, and their valuations are already high. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have long maturities and elasticity. Agricultural and animal husbandry convertible bonds are relatively stable, and their elasticity comes from the improvement of the underlying stock's fundamentals [3][111][122].

Group 1 - The article highlights various upcoming Bloomberg seminars and workshops scheduled for June 2025, focusing on different financial markets and tools [2][4][5][6][10]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the Bloomberg Terminal for analyzing bonds, foreign exchange, stocks, commodities, and derivatives [8]. - Specific sessions are dedicated to equity analysis, fixed income liquidity analysis, and the impact of tariffs on various sectors, including technology stocks [9][11]. Group 2 - The article provides a detailed schedule of events, including dates and times for each seminar, indicating a structured approach to financial education [3][7][10]. - It mentions the introduction of new data updates and application scenarios for global stock models and China's onshore fixed income market [9][10]. - The seminars aim to equip participants with essential tools and insights for effective market analysis and investment strategies [8][11].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of external shocks on the equity market, leading to increased risk aversion and an overall market pullback in April 2025 [2][8]. Group 1: Equity Market Performance - In April 2025, the CSI 300 index experienced a monthly decline of 3.00%, while the CSI 500 index fell by 3.86%, and the CSI 1000 index saw a decrease of 4.44% [2]. - Strictly constrained monthly excess returns for the CSI 300 were 0.21%, for the CSI 500 were -0.07%, and for the CSI 1000 were 1.12% [2]. - Smart Beta strategies yielded monthly excess returns of 0.09% for the CSI 300, 0.31% for the CSI 500, and 1.20% for the CSI 1000 [2]. - Rotation strategies provided monthly excess returns of 0.13% for the CSI 300, 0.29% for the CSI 500, and 1.59% for the CSI 1000 [2]. Group 2: Private Equity Strategies - In the private equity sector, long strategies showed the least decline with the CSI 300 index down by only 2.64%, while quantitative stock selection strategies had a return of -2.72% [3]. - Absolute return strategies performed well, with ETF arbitrage strategies achieving an annualized return of 14.46% and market-neutral strategies at 6.17% [3]. - Convertible bond strategies underperformed with a return of -0.95%, but had a smaller drawdown compared to other long strategies [3]. - In commodity and derivatives strategies, quantitative CTA strategies led with an annualized return of 10.49%, while futures arbitrage strategies followed at 6.07% [3]. Group 3: Private Fund Issuance and Registration - As of the end of March 2025, there were 19,951 active private fund managers managing 142,278 funds with a total scale of 19.97 trillion yuan [4]. - In March 2025, 1,423 new private funds were registered with a total scale of 631.3 billion yuan, including 1,072 private securities investment funds with a scale of 329.78 billion yuan [4]. - A total of 2,127 private securities investment funds were liquidated, while 85,614 private securities investment funds remained active with a total scale of 5.25 trillion yuan [4].

(责任编辑：叶景) 债市方面，债券市场情绪有所缓和，收益率先上后下。周一公布的经济数据稳定，预计一季度经济 仍能保持较快增长，市场并未关注数据中的结构瑕疵，更多关注总量，叠加情绪较为脆弱，收益率大幅 调整。税期资金面偏紧，但央行连续加量投放，市场情绪转稳，收益率转而下行。 权益市场短期行情有所降温，年初以来美元走弱的宏观交易逻辑在本月逐一落地，美元下行出现边 际放缓，非美元资产的估值修复节奏同步放缓。但与此同时，需要关注总量政策落地节奏以及基本面数 据验证，市场短期仍面临"四月决断"考验。从国内看，1-2月经济基本平稳、有强有弱、分化明显，结 构上延续"供给偏强、需求偏弱"，其中：偏强的是，1-2月工业生产、基建投资、制造业投资增速维持 高位，消费、地产投资环比改善，地产销售跌幅明显收窄则可谓最大的亮点；偏弱的是，1-2月 CPI、 PPI整体延续低位，进口增速大幅走低，信贷结构未见明显改善。 从国外看，上周，3月美联储如期维 持利率不变，宣布放慢缩表，上调通胀预测、下调经济预测，点阵图显示降息次数不变。美联储决定从 4月1日开始放缓QT速度，即降低缩表速率。国债的每月赎回上限从250亿美元减少到50亿美元。 ...