埃及国内经济方面，在非石油制造业与旅游业的积极拉动下，埃及央行对2025年第二季度经济增长的即时预测显示，当期增速高于此前预期，2025年第二 季度实际增速达5.4%，2024/2025财年平均增速为4.5%，而2023/2024财年该增速仅为2.4%。 当地时间8月28日，埃及央行将关键政策利率下调200个基点，隔夜存款利率从24.00%下调至22.00%，隔夜贷款利率从25.00%下调至23.00%。 这是继2025年4月和5月分别降息225个基点和100个基点后的第三次降息。 埃及央行货币政策委员会判断，下调200个基点的政策利率符合维持适宜货币政策立场的目标，有助于锚定通胀预期并延续通胀下行的路径。 5月22日，埃及央行货币政策委员会再次宣布下调基准利率100个基点，调整后的隔夜存款利率、隔夜贷款利率、主要操作利率分别降至24%、25%和 24.5%，贴现率下调至24.5%。这是继2025年4月降息225个基点后的第二次降息，表明随着通胀压力缓解和经济持续复苏，埃及货币政策进入宽松周期。 埃及央行货币政策委员会表示，尽管经济增速回升，但在当前货币政策立场的支撑下，预计需求端通胀压力仍将得到控制，这与短 ...

8月28日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为783.12元/克，涨幅0.20%，沪银主力 报价为9375.00元/千克，涨幅0.54%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价3449.80元/盎司，跌幅 0.06%，COMEX白银报价39.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.71%。 英伟达财报未公布前，美股处于高度紧张的观望状态，基准股指盘中冲高后遭遇抛售，纳指一度翻绿， 随后买盘涌入转涨但收盘前卖压再现。三大股指均收涨，标普收创新高。盘后英伟达财报显示数据中心 收入逊色，本季指引不够亮眼，股价盘后一度下挫5%。市场避险情绪升温，一定程度上支撑黄金走 势。 【盘面分析】 8月27日，COMEX黄金盘中先跌后涨，报收3451.8美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上 行，报收784.16元/克，涨幅0.33%。后续来看，今日晚间美国将发布2季度GDP数据，关注实际数据与 预期值的差异，若大幅低于预期，金价或在避险情绪支撑下进一步反弹。 【消息面】 特朗普于当地时间周二表示，他已准备好与美联储理事库克展开法律斗争；他已经考虑了一些"非常好 的人"来接替库克的位置；很快将在美联储理事会中拥有" ...

来源：市场资讯 2025年8月28日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，玉米涨超1%；跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌超2%， 纯碱、玻璃、对二甲苯、PVC、原油、苯乙烯跌超1%。 | 00 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 英价 | 瑞电器制 | 蛋蛋 | 英国 | 成交量 | · | 持仓量 | 日期仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2511 M | 76420 | 173 | 76400 | 76420 | -4.47% | 37 | 28 | 105123 -3580 | | 365614 | 14292 | | | 2 集运欧线2510 M | 1295.2 | 1 | 1294.3 | 1295.2 | -2.54% | 38 | 2 | | 4877 -33.8 | 53437 | -288 | | 3 | 多品硅2511 M | 48505 | 73 | 48495 | 48510 | -2.43% | 10 | ಕ | 23780 -121 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading at approximately 0.6488 against the US dollar, reflecting a 0.05% decline from the previous close of 0.6491 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicated in its meeting minutes that further monetary easing may be necessary within the next year, depending on economic data performance [1] - Market expectations suggest that the RBA may pause any action in September but could lower the interest rate to 3.35% in November [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that the AUD/USD is attempting to break out of a descending channel, indicating a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend [2] - The current price is above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6476, suggesting increased short-term price momentum [2] - A successful breakout above the immediate resistance area around 0.6590 could confirm the bullish trend, potentially leading to a test of the monthly high of 0.6568 and the nine-month peak of 0.6625 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put pressure on the bond market. Although the economic data in July weakened marginally, it still showed short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. A short - term bond - market rebound does not constitute a trend. Currently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed, the bond market's sensitivity to the stock market has decreased, and with the central bank's active support for the capital market, bond - market sentiment has improved, and short - term varieties are more resilient than long - term ones [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The A - share market shrank and declined in the afternoon, boosting long - term bond sentiment. Long - term treasury bond futures closed significantly higher. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities declined, with long - term yields falling mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.75750%, down 0.6bp [8][9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's net withdrawal did not prevent the inter - bank funding market from loosening. There were 580.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index declined. Short - term funding rates showed mixed trends, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits falling 3.5bp to 1.315% and the 7 - day rate falling 2.82bp to 1.49%. Medium - and long - term funds rose slightly, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rising 4bp to around 1.64% [10] 2. Industry News - The Party Committee of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized further deepening industrial assistance to Tibet. Central state - owned enterprises are encouraged to develop characteristic plateau industries in Tibet, increase investment in infrastructure, and promote major projects such as the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway. They should also enhance ethnic unity through various means [13] - The 13th plenary session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held, with discussions on formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan". Different committee members put forward suggestions on developing new - quality productive forces, integrating the digital economy with the real economy, boosting consumption, and enhancing scientific and technological innovation capabilities. The US Secretary of Commerce said that details of the US - Japan agreement would be announced this week, involving Japan's commitment of $550 billion in investment in the US for domestic production of semiconductors, antibiotics, and rare earths [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on the trading of treasury bond futures contracts on August 26, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes, were provided. Also, information on the inter - maturity spreads of main treasury bond futures contracts and inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year) and the trends of main treasury bond futures contracts were mentioned [6][15][16] - **Money Market**: Information on the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged - repurchase interest rates, and the changes in the inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates were provided [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) was provided [36]

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————内外因素共振，市场上涨或未完 袁方1张端怡2 魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 08 月 26 日 内容提要 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450525060002 3联系人，weiwei2@essence.com.cn，S1450123100017 第 1页，共 11页 2025 年 8 月 国投证券宏观定期报告 一、外需拉动财政收支改善 在权益市场上涨的过程中，通过宏观基本面的因素来推断市场是否超涨是 极其困难的，或许成交量、融资融券水平、散户进场速度有助于我们把握市场的 热度。就目前的情况来看，我们倾向于认为市场尚未达到难以维持的水平。 推动市场上涨的宏观因素当前仍然在维持甚至强化。比如金融体系的主动 信贷创造、散户和机构从安全资产向风险资产的切换、弱美元环境下资金的溢出 以及海外市场牛市的延续。 近期鲍威尔在全球央行年会上发言的鸽派程度远超市场预期，他更为关注 劳动力市 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储8月11日至12日的会议纪要显示，政策制定者预计在未来一年将进一步降息以实现其政策目标，降息的步伐可能取决于经济数 据。 澳洲联储在两周前将其关键利率下调至3.6%，而政策制定者在会议纪要中称这一利率水平"仍有一定限制性"。澳洲联储在两周前的声明中表示："鉴于基础 通胀持续向2-3%目标区间中值回落，且劳动力市场如预期小幅松动，理事会认为进一步放松货币政策是适宜的。"该央行补充称："考虑到总需求与潜在供 给存在高度不确定性，理事会对经济前景仍持谨慎态度。" 澳洲联储在当前的宽松周期中已累计降息75个基点，将利率降至2023年4月以来的最低水平。在劳动力市场依然紧张、生产率增长疲弱的背景下，其关注重 点正转向未来降息的可能幅度。 澳洲联储降息之际，全球决策者正努力应对美国关税上调带来的经济影响。货币市场预计，美联储将在9月会议上放松货币政策——其今年一直保持利率不 变，以评估关税冲击是否会引发持续的价格压力。同时，美国劳动力市场——作为美联储"双重使命"的另一半——显示出动能减弱的迹象。欧洲央行、加拿 大央行和英国央行等其他央行近几个月也都实施了宽松。 经济学家预计，澳洲联储将在20 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising nearly 0.5% and both the ChiNext Index and Shanghai Composite Index turning positive after a previous decline of over 1% [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market are showing gains, with sectors such as gaming, Huawei Ascend, and aquaculture leading the increases [1] - Citic Securities suggests that the market is in a resonance window of policy support and liquidity easing, with trading volume reaching historical highs, indicating a significant increase in investor confidence [1] Group 2 - The technical indicators show overbought conditions and sector differentiation, which may lead to short-term volatility, prompting investors to focus on a dual-driven logic of "policy mainline + performance verification" [1] - Opportunities in sectors such as equipment upgrades, 5.5G, and AI computing power are highlighted as more certain investment prospects, while investors are advised to avoid stocks with excessive price increases lacking performance support [1] - Everbright Securities notes that with the upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and expectations of a significant interest rate cut cycle starting in September, domestic monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, contributing to a sustained upward market trend [1]

Group 1 - The gold market continues to show strong momentum, with prices steadily rising due to dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference, alleviating market concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - Powell's remarks are seen as a significant turning point in the macroeconomic environment, providing favorable support for the medium to long-term outlook of gold [1] Group 2 - Swiss Post announced the suspension of regular postal services to the United States starting August 26, due to the U.S. ending the tax exemption policy for imports valued under $800, requiring all goods to prepay tariffs [2] - This new regulation deviates from the Universal Postal Union standards and has prompted postal operators in several European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, to follow suit and suspend parcel services to the U.S. [2] - Swiss Post is actively seeking solutions to resume services, particularly focusing on personal gifts valued under $100, aiming to restore normal operations to meet cross-border mailing demands [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has stabilized above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands after breaking through significant resistance, confirming a short-term bullish breakout [3] - The support level at 3350 remains solid, allowing the bullish trend to continue, with potential further upward movement towards the 3400-3420 range [3] - As long as the support level is not breached, gold prices are expected to maintain a strong upward bias in the short term [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].