来源：滚动播报 交易员们正在集中押注，美联储新主席的任命以及延迟的经济数据在本月的发布将支持总统唐纳德·特 朗普的降息呼声。在美国期货市场，与担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的短期利率曲线结构的需求正在 增加，其密切反映市场对美联储利率决策结果的预期。这些押注反映出，在主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔明年5月 任期结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。明年6月17日的声明将是新任美联储主席上任后的首次公开 表态。自白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔的热门人选后，市场开始布局新仓位。 特朗普周二在内阁会议上称，美联储主席的角逐已"缩小到一人"，并称哈塞特为"潜在的美联储主席"。 他表示将在明年初宣布最终决定。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of a loose monetary policy remains. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term loose expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly retraced. The manufacturing PMI in November showed strong resilience, so there is no strong need for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, in the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. From the perspective of the monetary policy to stabilize demand, the future monetary policy environment tends to be loose, which strongly supports treasury bond futures. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

利率期货市场当前的最新定价显示，交易员们目前押注美联储12月会议降息25个基点的概率超过90%;该市场定价同时预期 明年年底前累计宽松幅度将达85个到100个基点，相当于倾向定价四次25个基点的降息。 延迟到来的重要经济数据 全球利率期货交易员们正大举押注，将于明年5月份新上任的美联储主席以及本月延迟公布的各项经济数据将支持美国总统 唐纳德·特朗普关于大幅降低利率的呼声。在过去几日，随着白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特迅速成为接替鲍威尔执掌 美联储的最热门人选，市场开始大量建仓豪赌这位极度鸽派的"影子美联储主席"对于美联储货币政策的言论在未来的影响力 度将胜过鲍威尔，进而押注美联储在2026年将实施更多降息。 在美国利率期货市场，与有担保隔夜融资利率(即所谓的SOFR)挂钩的短端利率曲线结构需求正在上升，该利率与市场对美 联储利率决策结果的预期高度相关。这些押注反映出一种可能性：现在的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期于5月结束后，美联 储货币政策宽松的步伐将会进一步加快。6月17日的货币政策政策声明将是新任央行掌门人主持下发布的第一份。 自白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔的最热门人选后，关于美联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends. For example, gold's降息预期回升, and silver is加速冲刺，再创新高. Copper's price is supported by strong spot prices, while zinc has support at the lower level. Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction, and tin's supply is disrupted again [2][6][10]. - The market for some commodities is in a state of wide - range oscillation, such as iron ore, whose downstream demand space is limited and valuation is high;螺纹钢 and热轧卷板 are experiencing a multi - empty game in the market and wide - range oscillations [2][42][45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: With the recovery of interest - rate cut expectations, the prices of沪金2512 and黄金T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: It is accelerating and hitting new highs. The prices of沪银2512 and白银T+D rose significantly, with daily increases of 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price is strong, supporting the price. The沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.40% yesterday. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend intensity is 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level. The沪锌主力收盘价 increased by 0.69% yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The沪铅主力收盘价 rose by 0.79% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The沪锡主力合约 increased by 0.50% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The氧化铝 is still searching for the bottom, and the铸造铝合金 follows the electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. - **Platinum**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with the possibility of an upward movement. The trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals limit the upward elasticity, and it is in a low - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: With high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downward space, it is in an oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is weak, and the high - level oscillation continues. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1 [39]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration. The trend intensity is 0 [39]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend intensity is - 1 [42]. - **Rebar**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Manganese Silicide**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range - bound operations for the time being [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it is mainly in an oscillation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a lack of new sales, and US soybeans continue to fall, leading to an adjustment in the continuous contract. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [5]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation [5]. - **Sugar**: India's sugar production has increased significantly [5]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong [5]. - **Egg**: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong [5]. - **Live Pig**: An increase in supply is coming, and the industrial logic is returning [5]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot price [5].

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 美联储降息预期持续升温。 关键时刻，又一家华尔街大行突然"撕报告"。美国银行全球研究（BofA Global Research）在最新发布 的报告中预测，美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点。美银此前曾预测，美联储将在12月暂停降息。据 CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间12月3日07:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%。 此前有消息称，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）已成为下届美联储主席的最热门 人选。哈塞特的货币政策立场偏向"鸽派"，核心主张是尽快降息以规避美国经济衰退风险，其利率政策倾 向与美国总统特朗普高度一致，后者一直呼吁大幅降息。 美银调整预期的背景是，包括纽约联储主席、联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席约翰·威廉姆斯在内 的核心官员近日释放出鸽派信号，这进一步推高了市场对美联储提前降息的押注。 美银补充道："我们认为，若美联储下周降息，将增加货币政策进入宽松区间的风险，眼下正值财政刺激 措施开始发力之际。" 与此同时，美联储下一任主席人选也传来最新进展 ...

值得一提的是，美银此前曾预测，美联储将在12月议息会议上维持利率不变。 美银最新预计，美联储2026年6月和7月还会分别再降息25个基点，最终将终端利率降至3.00%—3.25%。 美银分析师在一份报告中表示："我们对2026年进一步降息的预测基于（美联储）领导层的变动，而非我们对 经济的解读。" 美联储降息预期持续升温。 关键时刻，又一家华尔街大行突然"撕报告"。美国银行全球研究（BofA Global Research）在最新发布的报告中 预测，美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点。美银此前曾预测，美联储将在12月暂停降息。据CME"美联储观 察"，截至北京时间12月3日07:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.2%。 与此同时，美联储下一任主席人选也传来最新进展。美东时间12月2日，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划在2026 年初公布美联储新任主席的人选。 特朗普同日暗示白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）可 能是他的选择 。另外，号称"美联储传声筒"的Nick Timiraos透露，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但 特朗普似乎已倾向于选择哈西特担任这一职位。此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by macroeconomic factors and a weak dollar, despite short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking [2]. Group 1: Market Data - On December 2, the closing price for Shanghai gold futures was 958.42 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 313,720 contracts, while the open interest stood at 202,038 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 956.30 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 2.12 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2 in November, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1]. - The new orders index fell to its fastest contraction rate since July, and the backlog of orders saw the largest decline in seven months [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a clear divergence in U.S. economic momentum, with the overall PMI rising to a four-month high due to the services sector, while manufacturing faces pressures from weak new orders and record inventory backlogs [2]. - Federal Reserve officials are signaling a dovish stance, with support for a potential rate cut in December to address risks in the labor market, alongside a moderate decline in core PPI and manageable inflation pressures [2]. - The COMEX gold and silver inventories have significantly decreased, and holdings in SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF have increased, indicating strong market sentiment and continued capital inflow [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the recent adjustment, the allocation value of bonds has started to emerge, with the yields of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds approaching the levels when the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading in late October, increasing the attractiveness to allocation-oriented institutions [8] - The market will focus on the official PMI data for November and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which may provide new directional guidance for the market [8] - In the short term, the pattern of a ceiling and a floor for bonds is difficult to break, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the expectation of an interest rate cut is strengthened at the beginning of next year, the bond market is expected to rise [8] - In the medium to long term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge facing China's economic development. With the marginal decline of the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt-driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures [8] - The coordinated strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, creates a low-interest rate environment, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, treasury bond futures were relatively stable at the beginning of the week, but there was a significant turning point on Wednesday, with a sharp decline in the late trading. The decline of long-term contracts was significantly greater than that of short-term contracts. The 30-year treasury bond futures main contract had a single-day decline of 0.86%, and the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts had declines of 0.36%, 0.22%, and 0.05% respectively [4] - The decline was mainly driven by news factors. The market rumor on Wednesday that the central bank's bond purchase scale this month was only 20 billion yuan, significantly lower than market expectations, and the large-scale fund redemption on the same day further exacerbated the market selling pressure. The low volatility background and fragile trading sentiment in the market amplified the decline [4] - Before the significant adjustment on Wednesday, the treasury bond market had been in a low-volatility sideways state for several weeks, lacking a clear trading theme. The traditional "stock-bond seesaw" effect did not appear, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in going long due to concerns about the lack of further monetary policy easing and the wait-and-see attitude towards the new regulations on public fund sales [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The report presents data and charts on open market operations (including currency issuance, currency withdrawal, and net currency issuance), medium-term lending facilities (including amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, various capital prices (such as deposit-based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, and bond pledged repurchase rates), and spreads, as well as LPR, deposit reserve ratios, and treasury bond and US treasury bond yields and term spreads [10][12][19] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data and charts on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bond futures [45][53][60]

Economic Outlook - China is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5% for 2026, consistent with 2025, reflecting the central government's focus on stabilizing growth and promoting recovery [1] Consumption - From January to October 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, showing a slowdown from a peak of 5% in May [2] - The job market is showing signs of recovery, with the urban unemployment rate dropping to 5.10% in October 2025, and is expected to approach 5.0% [2] - The retail sales growth for 2026 is projected to be around 4.20%, indicating a moderate recovery despite structural pressures [2] Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to October 2025 was 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant decline in infrastructure and real estate investment [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly in 2026, with a projected growth rate of approximately 5.50% [3] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of around 5.55% in 2026, supported by improved capacity utilization [3] Real Estate - Real estate investment is at a historical low, slightly above levels during the public health crisis, primarily due to weak sales [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of housing prices is showing signs of marginal recovery, with new residential prices down 2.60% and second-hand prices down 5.40% in October 2025 [4] - The decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow to -10.65% in 2026 [4] Exports - Total exports from January to October 2025 reached 221.146 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions have shown strong growth, with significant increases to Africa (26.10%), the EU (7.50%), ASEAN (14.30%), and India (12.30%) [6] - The global economic recovery and potential easing of tariffs are expected to provide a more stable environment for exports in 2026 [5][6] Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% [7] - Both CPI and PPI are expected to improve, with PPI potentially turning positive in the first half of 2026 [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected deficit rate increase from 4% to 4.5% in 2026, alongside an increase in special bond issuance [8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points in 2026 [8] Overall Economic Assessment - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve around 5% growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, external demand recovery, and improving price levels [9]

周五，黄金价格攀升至每盎司约4,190美元，逼近近五周以来的高点，并有望实现连续第四个月的上涨。市场分析认为，这一趋势主要源于投资者对货币政 策进一步宽松的信心不断增强。 近期，多项因素共同推动了市场预期的转变。一方面，部分经济数据表现疲软，增强了市场对政策调整的预期；另一方面，多位具有影响力的官员也表达了 对进一步宽松立场的支持。这些因素共同作用，使得市场对短期利率下调的预期显著升温。 据市场观察，目前投资者对下个月利率下调的预期概率已超过80%，较一周前的30%大幅上升。与此同时，部分分析还指出，市场预计未来两年内可能还将 迎来多次利率调整。 值得关注的是，黄金市场的强劲表现不仅源于短期政策预期，也得益于结构性需求的支撑。近年来，央行持续购入黄金，同时，非主权机构资金也大量流入 相关交易基金，共同推动了黄金价格的长期上行。在这一背景下，有分析指出，黄金有望创下自1979年以来的最佳年度表现。 从市场情绪来看，投资者对政策走向的预判正逐步趋于一致。尽管部分经济数据发布存在滞后，但整体趋势已在一定程度上影响了资产配置行为。黄金作为 传统避险资产，其价格走势往往反映出市场对中长期经济环境与政策方向的判断。 此外 ...