Core Points - The unexpected trade agreement between the US and Japan reduces tariffs to 15%, but does not achieve the goal of eliminating the US trade deficit with Japan [1][2] - The agreement is estimated to reduce Japan's trade surplus with the US by approximately 70%, but significant differences in trade agreement details remain [1][4] - The agreement is projected to lead to a 0.55% decline in Japan's actual GDP, with a 50% probability of recession by the end of 2026 [8] Summary by Sections Tariff Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement sets tariffs at 15%, which is seen as a major concession by Japan, given its initial demands for a complete removal of tariffs [2][3] - The agreement is expected to reduce Japan's exports to the US by approximately 2.2 trillion yen [7] Trade Surplus Impact - The agreement will reduce Japan's trade surplus with the US by 6.2 trillion yen, which is about 70% of the projected 8.6 trillion yen surplus in 2024 [5][4] - If certain factors are considered, the reduction in trade surplus could be as low as 4.8 trillion yen, or 56% of the projected surplus [5] Future Trade Relations - The Trump administration may impose additional measures on Japan, including higher tariffs on specific industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [8][6] - Japan's commitment to invest 5500 billion yen in the US is seen as a target rather than a guaranteed amount, with actual investments to be determined by Japanese companies [3][9] Discrepancies in Agreement Interpretation - There are discrepancies between the US and Japan regarding the agreement's content, particularly concerning Japan's commitment to additional defense equipment purchases [9][10] - The White House's statements about the agreement may not accurately reflect the terms agreed upon by both countries [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that a trade surplus indicates that the U.S. is being "sold out" [1] - The European Union agreed to the deal primarily due to the pharmaceutical and automotive industries [1] - The EU does not want the U.S. to drive pharmaceutical companies out of Europe [1] Group 2 - Former President Trump is expected to announce a new pharmaceutical policy within the next two weeks [1] - A significant tariff will be imposed if drugs are not produced in the U.S. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, stated that a trade surplus indicates that the U.S. is being "sold out" [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects concerns about the implications of trade balances on the U.S. economy [1] - The comment suggests a critical view of current trade policies and their impact on domestic industries [1] - The notion of being "sold out" implies a loss of competitive advantage for U.S. companies in the global market [1]

《多哥第一报》7月28日消息--根据西非经货联盟统计，2023年多哥向西非经货联盟邻国出口超过7.69亿 美元。其中，对布基纳法索出口（1.78亿美元）、对贝宁出口（1.75亿美元）和对马里出口（1.68亿美 元），以上占多哥在西非次区域出口的 66% 。与此同时，洛美从西非经货联盟邻国进口额为3.68亿美 元，约占其进口额的一半。多哥在西非经货联盟内部贸易中顺差超过 4.01亿美元。这主要得益于多哥作 为次区域物流枢纽的区位优势，以及其作为内陆邻国（布基纳法索、尼日尔和马里，）进口商品的主要 通道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's exports are expected to continue growing in July, driven by strong semiconductor and shipbuilding sectors, despite the adverse effects of increased tariffs from the United States [1] Export Data - A survey of 11 economists conducted by The Wall Street Journal predicts that July exports may increase by 4.7% year-on-year, following a 4.3% growth in June [1] - The anticipated trade surplus for July is projected to be $5.55 billion, down from a surplus of $9.08 billion in June [1] Import Data - July imports are expected to rise by 1.9% year-on-year [1] Economic Insights - Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hanwha Securities, indicates that the momentum of exports may gradually weaken due to the influence of the United States [1]

据报道，"我们与中国相处得很好。" 美国总统特朗普在华盛顿一场人工智能峰会上，突然抛出这句看 似轻描淡写的话。 前不久，他刚对菲律宾总统马科斯说过几乎一样的台词。要知道，就在几个月前，这位以"关税大棒"闻 名的总统还在威胁对中国商品加征关税。是什么让他的态度发生了180度大转弯？ 答案藏在最新公布的贸易数据里——2025年6月，中国从美国进口的原油、液化天然气（LNG）和煤 炭，几乎全部归零。 特朗普（资料图） 一、归零的数据：美国能源出口遭遇"断头台" 中国海关总署的数据显示，6月份，中国自美国进口的原油彻底归零——这是近三年来的第一次。要知 道，去年同期的进口额还有8亿美元。液化天然气（LNG）更惨，已经连续四个月没有一丁点对华出 口。煤炭？去年6月中国还买了9000万美元的美国煤，今年6月只剩下几百美元的订单，几乎可以忽略不 计。 为什么会出现这种断崖式下跌？关税，还是关税。 4月份中美关税战升级，双方互加"对等关税"，部分能源产品的税率一度飙。这么高的税率，进口商根 本无利可图，贸易自然就停了。 美国能源商这下傻眼了。中国是全球最大的能源买家之一，突然不买了，他们的库存和现金流立刻吃 紧。更糟的是，这 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is increasingly dependent on China despite initiating a tariff war, as China's industrial output has surpassed that of the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has conducted two rounds of trade talks with China and has ceased its tariff war, seeking cooperation on rare earth regulations [3] - The U.S. initiated the tariff war primarily to increase fiscal revenue, but this has led to rising prices that are being passed onto American consumers [5] Group 2 - The trade scale between China and the U.S. is significant, with China enjoying a large trade surplus from the U.S. market [6] - The U.S. Republican government’s actions are seen as detrimental to the interests of ordinary American citizens, as recent budget bills have favored the wealthy while burdening the general populace [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for citizens to contribute to repaying national debt highlights the government's strategy of shifting financial burdens onto the public [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan has achieved the best results among countries that maintain a trade surplus with the United States [1] Group 1 - Japan's trade surplus with the United States is highlighted as a significant achievement [1]

Group 1 - Thailand is nearing a crucial trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid punitive tariffs of up to 36% on its exports, which is vital for its export-driven economy [1][4] - The negotiations have progressed over 90%, with Thailand expected to submit final details to U.S. trade officials shortly, aiming for a new tariff rate around 20% [1][2] - The U.S. is Thailand's largest export market, accounting for 18% of its total shipments in 2024, and the recent negotiations have led to a 15% increase in exports in the first five months of this year [1][4] Group 2 - Thailand has expanded its list of U.S. goods to be subject to zero tariffs from over 60% to 90%, including significant purchases of U.S. agricultural products and investments in projects like the Alaska gas project [2][4] - The trade surplus with the U.S. reached $46 billion last year, which is a central issue in the ongoing trade friction [4] - The Thai government is making concessions to minimize the economic impact of punitive tariffs, especially amid rising domestic debt and weak consumer spending [4][5] Group 3 - The final stages of negotiations are focused on addressing remaining requests from the U.S., with expectations for a tariff rate comparable to those negotiated with Vietnam and Indonesia [3][4] - The Thai government is assessing its capacity to meet the U.S.'s expectations regarding policy formulation and issue handling [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a paradox where China's trade surplus is expanding while the Renminbi (RMB) is depreciating, raising questions about the underlying economic dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Currency Dynamics - Since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, China's trade surplus has reached new highs, yet the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has declined by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025 [3]. - According to Balassa's theory, faster productivity growth in a country's trade sector typically leads to currency appreciation, a trend observed in Japan, but this has not been the case for China [3]. Group 2: Demand Insufficiency and Market Failures - Zhang Bin attributes the continuous depreciation of the RMB since 2022 primarily to insufficient demand, which also explains the expanding trade surplus and significant net capital outflows [5]. - The insufficient demand has resulted in low inflation and weak asset price expectations, indicating a market failure characterized by price stickiness and coordination failures among market participants [5]. - Individual rational behaviors, such as reduced investment by businesses and decreased consumption by households, collectively contribute to a negative spiral of income and expenditure, exerting downward pressure on demand and asset prices, leading to depreciation of the nominal and actual effective RMB exchange rates [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Currency Valuation - Experts, including Zhang Bin, believe the RMB is undervalued and recommend timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to achieve a reasonable valuation of the currency [5]. - If overcoming the demand insufficiency in the short term proves challenging, maintaining a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD while firmly defending the upper and lower limits of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is advised [5].