摘要 过去一周，国内主要市场指数下跌，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为-2.7%、-3.73%、- 5.77%和-5.79%。 从中期来看，根据我们构建的宏观择时策略给出的信号，11 月份权益推荐仓位为 25%。拆分来看，模型对 11 月份经 济增长层面信号强度为 0%；而货币流动性层面信号强度为 50%。择时策略 2025 年年初至今收益率为 13.55%，同期 Wind 全 A 收益率为 25.61%。 过去一周市场宽幅波动，在海外流动性收紧下，价值因子表现良好。且随着市场波动放大，量价类因子表现量良好。 且我们可观察到，在市场弱势情况下，对于有潜在业绩支撑的板块更加偏好，导致一致预期因子表现良好。展望未来 一周，在宏观不确定仍较高的情况下，我们预估价值和量价类因子表现能有所延续。 风险提示 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收正，茅指数为负斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至微盘股指数信号，中期配置微盘股指数的预期能有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Industrial Fulian has been declining, influenced by the fluctuations in Nvidia's AI chip demand and ongoing discussions about the "AI bubble" [1][5] Group 1: Stock Performance - Industrial Fulian's stock price has dropped 30.77% from October 30 to November 24, resulting in a market value loss of over 400 billion yuan [1] - As of November 24, Industrial Fulian's stock closed down 7.8% [1] Group 2: Earnings and Market Reactions - There are rumors regarding Industrial Fulian lowering its fourth-quarter performance targets and cabinet shipment expectations, which have raised investor concerns [3] - Industrial Fulian clarified that its fourth-quarter operations, including shipments of Nvidia's GB200 and GB300 products, are proceeding as planned, with strong customer demand [3][4] - Both Industrial Fulian and Nvidia reported quarterly earnings exceeding market expectations, with Nvidia achieving revenue of $57 billion and net profit of $31.9 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, marking year-on-year increases of 62% and 65% respectively [4] - Industrial Fulian's third-quarter revenue reached 243.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and net profit was 10.373 billion yuan, up 62.04% [4] Group 3: Institutional Actions - Some institutions have reduced their holdings in Nvidia, with Bridgewater significantly cutting its stake by nearly two-thirds in the third quarter [4] - Thiel Macro Fund sold approximately 537,000 shares of Nvidia, representing nearly 40% of its investment portfolio [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's partnership with OpenAI is under scrutiny, especially as Google has made significant advancements in AI with its Gemini 3 model, potentially impacting OpenAI's economic position [5] - Google's progress in AI may alter the competitive landscape, as it has developed chips that reduce reliance on Nvidia's GPUs [5] - As a core supplier to Nvidia, Industrial Fulian's server shipments will be closely tied to Nvidia's AI chip demand, with Morgan Stanley estimating that 28% of Nvidia's HGX/DGX servers in 2024 will come from Hon Hai and its subsidiary Industrial Fulian [5]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate about the AI bubble has escalated to questioning the tech bull market, with contrasting opinions on whether AI is a genuine productivity revolution or merely a capital-driven concept lacking profitable business models [1][4]. Group 1: AI Bubble Debate - The core of the AI bubble controversy lies in the imbalance between investment and output, with significant capital expenditures on infrastructure not translating into immediate revenue [6][18]. - The narrative has shifted from focusing on building infrastructure to emphasizing the need for AI applications that generate real income [6][20]. Group 2: Major Players and Strategies - Google and Alibaba are leading the charge in AI applications, with Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Alibaba's Qwen3 series models representing significant advancements in the industry [5][9]. - Google's strategy focuses on integrating AI into its existing ecosystem, enhancing user experience and driving advertising revenue through its comprehensive product suite [7][8]. - Alibaba's approach emphasizes open-source models and creating a super app, aiming to connect various services and provide a seamless user experience [11][13]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The global AI industry is projected to exceed $215 billion by 2025, with 88% of enterprises utilizing AI, although few have generated substantial profits [6][22]. - Investment opportunities are emerging around companies that can effectively implement AI applications, with a focus on those that can monetize their offerings [20][24]. - Specific companies identified as potential beneficiaries include Stone Base Information, Worth Buying, and Data Port, which are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI services [16][17].

行业热点：全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，中金拟吸收合并东兴、 信达。（1）全模态通用 AI 助手"灵光"发布，上线 4 天突破百万下载。 （2）中金拟吸收合并东兴、信达，券业格局再迎改变。（3）2025 量子科 技和产业大会在合肥举行，量子领域多项重大成果集中发布。 行业配置：阶段性再平衡 策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 如何看待全球风险偏好的降温？ 投资要点： 本周（11/17-11/21）市场普遍承压，全 A 收跌-5.13%。从指数情况看， 上证 50、中证红利跌幅较窄，创业板指、微盘股受挫严重。从风格情况看， 金融地产跌幅较窄，先进制造领跌。本周 31 个申万行业全部收跌，银行、 传媒、食品饮料跌幅较窄，基础化工、综合、电力设备领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差上升，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差上升至 0.8%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪调整，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑输市场，主题热度主要聚集在水产、拼多多合作商、中船系。（3） 市场结构：市场量能环比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest earnings report for Q3 FY2026 showcased remarkable growth, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and adjusted net income of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, significantly surpassing Wall Street expectations [1][2][14]. Financial Performance - Revenue: $57,006 million, up 62% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter [2] - Gross Margin: 73.4%, a slight decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [2] - Operating Expenses: $5,839 million, up 36% year-over-year [2] - Operating Income: $36,010 million, up 65% year-over-year [2] - Net Income: $31,910 million, up 65% year-over-year [2] - Diluted Earnings Per Share: $1.30, a 67% increase year-over-year [2] Market Reaction - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock price fell over 3% after initially rising 5%, reflecting market skepticism about future growth sustainability [1][5]. Business Segments Performance - Data Center Revenue: $51.2 billion, up 66% year-over-year, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue [8][10]. - Gaming Revenue: $4.265 billion, up 30% year-over-year [12]. - Professional Visualization Revenue: $760 million, up 56% year-over-year [12]. - Automotive and Robotics Revenue: $592 million, up 32% year-over-year [12]. Strategic Challenges - Market Repositioning: Nvidia is being viewed as a cyclical hardware supplier, raising concerns about the sustainability of cloud spending [7]. - Customer Concentration: Major clients like Microsoft and Google are developing their own chips, threatening Nvidia's market position [7][21]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing export restrictions to China are limiting growth opportunities in a previously lucrative market [7][22]. Future Outlook - Nvidia anticipates Q4 revenue of $65 billion, exceeding analyst expectations [14]. - The company is focusing on rapid technology iterations and expanding its ecosystem through software platforms [27][30]. - Concerns about potential market saturation and competition from self-developed chips by major clients persist [20][21]. Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors are showing caution, with significant sell-offs from major funds, reflecting a shift towards risk management [33][35]. - The debate over whether AI stocks are in a bubble continues, with contrasting views on Nvidia's long-term growth potential [37].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's recent earnings report for Q3 FY2026 showcased impressive revenue growth, with a 62% year-over-year increase to $57 billion and a 65% rise in adjusted net profit to $31.9 billion, significantly surpassing Wall Street expectations, thus countering the "AI bubble" narrative [3][4][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $57.006 billion, up 62% year-over-year and 22% quarter-over-quarter [4]. - Gross margin stood at 73.4%, slightly down from 74.6% year-over-year [4]. - Operating expenses increased by 36% year-over-year to $5.839 billion [4]. - Operating income was $36.01 billion, reflecting a 65% year-over-year growth [4]. - Diluted earnings per share rose to $1.30, a 67% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Market Reaction - Despite strong earnings, Nvidia's stock fell over 3% after initially rising 5%, indicating market skepticism about future growth sustainability [4][21]. - The stock closed at $178.88, with a market capitalization of $4.35 trillion [4]. Business Segments Performance - Data center revenue was the highlight, contributing $51.2 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue [10][18]. - Gaming revenue reached $4.265 billion, up 30% year-over-year, driven by RTX 40/50 series sales [16]. - Professional visualization revenue grew by 56% to $760 million, serving clients like Pixar and Disney [16]. - Automotive and robotics revenue increased by 32% to $592 million, with clients including BYD and Xiaomi [16]. Structural Challenges - Nvidia faces three major structural challenges: 1. Changing valuation logic as the market repositions it as a cyclical hardware supplier [11]. 2. Core customers like Microsoft and Google developing their own chips, threatening Nvidia's competitive edge [11]. 3. Geopolitical issues, particularly export restrictions to China, limiting growth opportunities [11][27]. Future Outlook - Nvidia is focusing on rapid technology iteration with the upcoming Rubin platform and promoting its CUDA software platform to deepen developer engagement [33]. - The company is expanding into new areas such as robotics and healthcare, aiming to extend AI applications beyond data centers [34]. - Concerns about the sustainability of capital expenditures and potential market corrections are prevalent among investors [40][42]. Market Sentiment - A significant portion of institutional investors is reducing their holdings in Nvidia, reflecting a shift towards risk management amid concerns of an AI bubble [36][42]. - The debate centers on whether AI represents a transformative opportunity or if current valuations are unsustainable, with implications for Nvidia's future growth trajectory [42].

华尔街本以为英伟达(NVDA.US)的爆炸性财报能缓解投资者对人工智能(AI)股泡沫形成的担忧，但事与 愿违。那么，当前AI交易处于何种境地?答案因人而异。 一方是怀疑论者。他们担忧，随着投资者追捧少数与AI热潮相关的成长型股票，市场估值已飙升至危 险水平。这些公司为维持竞争地位投入的数千亿美元资金被认为难以持续，尤其是在它们开始通过举债 来跟上节奏的情况下。此外，这类融资安排的循环特性可能引发系统性风险——一家公司的疲软可能拖 垮整个AI交易生态。 "坦率地说，这个季度的表现堪称卓越，"持有英伟达股票的Sands Capital Management投资组合经理丹尼 尔.皮林表示，"营收方面的前瞻性指引比市场共识高出5%。" 除英伟达外，其他半导体公司近期突然陷入困境，因为华尔街开始质疑AI支出的持续性。半导体类股 指数11月已下跌11%，有望创下2022年以来最糟糕的月度表现，AMD(AMD.US)和Arm Holdings(ARM.US)等公司的股价跌幅均超过20%。 在行业边缘领域，2月上市的存储芯片制造商Sandisk Corp(SNDK.US)今年股价一度上涨近700%，并于 11月12日触及高点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 earnings report of $57 billion has effectively countered skepticism regarding the AI bubble, showcasing robust growth in its data center business and affirming the company's strong position in the AI market [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57 billion for Q3, a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 62% increase year-over-year [4][5]. - The data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, reflecting a 25% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 66% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing market expectations [4][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) was $1.30, slightly above the consensus estimate of $1.26 [5]. Market Dynamics - Despite concerns about an AI investment peak, Nvidia's performance indicates a divergence from the broader market trends, where many AI application companies are struggling with inflated valuations and insufficient revenue [3][4]. - Nvidia's market capitalization briefly surpassed $5 trillion, highlighting its pivotal role in the global economy and technology sector [7]. AI Market Trends - Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, emphasized that the current AI wave is not a bubble but a fundamental shift in computing paradigms, moving from general-purpose CPUs to accelerated GPU computing [10][12]. - Key trends driving this shift include the saturation of Moore's Law, the AI-driven upgrade of recommendation systems, and the emergence of intelligent agents that significantly increase demand for computational power [10][12][13]. Profitability and Market Position - Nvidia's gross margin is projected to be around 69.8% for the last 12 months, with expectations to reach 72.42% in the upcoming quarter, showcasing its superior profitability compared to typical hardware manufacturers [16][19]. - The company's strategic product roadmap, including the introduction of Blackwell and Rubin chips, is designed to maintain its competitive edge and create high barriers to entry for competitors [19][22]. Future Outlook - Global investments in AI infrastructure are expected to reach $3 to $4 trillion by 2030, positioning Nvidia as a primary beneficiary of this growth [25]. - Despite potential challenges in the AI application layer, the underlying demand for computational power remains strong, ensuring Nvidia's continued relevance and profitability [25][27]. Industry Implications - Nvidia's dominance in the GPU market has raised concerns about industry monopolization, as the company controls critical technology that underpins the AI revolution [29]. - The concentration of technological power in a single entity poses risks to competitive balance and the diversity of the global tech ecosystem, necessitating careful consideration by governments and businesses [29].

图片来源：AFP "你们看过网上的那些表情包吗？现在的英伟达基本是在维系地球运转。我觉得这种说法并不夸张。" "但即使我们交出了令人难以置信的好成绩，市场也并不买单！" 根据Business Insider获取英伟达内部会议录音显示，在本周四的内部会上这家全球市值最高公司的CEO黄仁勋抱怨连连，认为英伟达高光的三季度业绩表现 和对美国经济、全球发展的重要影响没有得到应有的重视。 外界对英伟达过高的期待值，导致黄仁勋似乎陷入了进退两难窘境。 "哪怕只是看起来有点问题，整个世界都会崩溃" 11月19日美股盘后，，570.1亿美元的营收表现创下同季度纪录，高出华尔街普遍不到550亿美元的预测。该公司四季度业绩展望更是高达650亿美元，比华 尔街预期普遍高出5%。 黄仁勋也在财报电话会议上回应了"AI泡沫"、英伟达大举出手投资、芯片竞争白热化等市场疑虑，并坚称"没看到泡沫"，称英伟达将会一如既往地优秀和领 先下去。 不过，财报带来的提振十分短暂，虽然当日盘后和次日开盘英伟达股价一度走高，但回落来得更加突然，11月20日，该公司从接近196美元的开盘价一路跌 至180美元左右，收跌3.15%，美股各大指数也同步受挫。 ...

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 | 股指 |  | - | 3 | - | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 |  | - | 10 | - | | | | | | 三、下周公开市场到期与重要经济日历一览 | - | 10 | - |  | 航运指数 | - | 21 | - | | 一、市场回顾 - | 21 | - | 二、集运市场情况 - | 22 | - | | | | 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 年初以来， ...