当前经济稳定运行的压力犹存，需要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。通过增强宏观政策协调配合， 用好用足政策空间，充分释放政策效应，就可以更有效扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、增强发展动能。 近日，财政部公布三季度将发行11只超长期特别国债，其中4只发行时间较原计划提前。此外，今年第 三批消费品以旧换新资金将在7月下达的消息也引起高度关注。一系列密集举措显示，宏观政策正在加 紧发力，为宏观经济运行提供更坚强支撑。 从总体看，今年宏观政策呈现"靠前发力"的特点。更加积极的财政政策方面，前5个月发行国债6.29万 亿元，同比增长38.5%；发行新增地方政府债券1.98万亿元，增长36.6%；全国一般公共预算支出增速达 4.2%，加强对惠民生、促消费、增后劲领域的投入，各项重点支出保持较高增幅。货币政策适度宽 松，强化逆周期调节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，为经济持续回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。 用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，持续用力、更加给力，推动已确定的各项政策举 措充分发挥红利。促进扩大内需方面，尽早发行和使用超长期特别国债、专项债券等，发挥财政资金引 导和带动效应，三季度部分超长期特别国债提前发 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced two significant adjustment phases in the past six months, driven by discrepancies in monetary policy expectations and fundamental outlooks [2] - The first adjustment occurred from February to March, where the anticipated "double reduction" policy did not materialize, leading to a tightening of the funding environment and a subsequent decline in bond prices [2] - The second adjustment was triggered in early April by unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals and leading to a rapid strengthening of the bond market [2] Group 2 - Future variables that could disrupt the current market oscillation include a potential slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to a temporary strengthening of bonds [3] - If the market doubts the sustainability of short-term positive economic data, it could impact corporate capital expenditure and consumer confidence, potentially leading to a correction in economic growth expectations and a subsequent bond market rally [3] - A more proactive signal from the central bank could guide funding prices lower, which may lead to a decrease in short-term yields and open up space for long-term price increases [4] Group 3 - The resilience shown in the domestic economy during the first half of the year may lower policy expectations for the second half, and if fiscal and real estate policies exceed expectations, it could lead to an upward revision of fundamental outlooks [4] - The bond market is currently in a low interest rate and low spread environment, with institutional funds likely to engage in ongoing debates regarding the pace and intensity of easing measures [4] - In this oscillating market, flexibility in duration management and careful selection of investment products will be essential to enhance returns through periodic trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article deeply analyzes the origins of modern central banking and discusses the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies in macroeconomic regulation, emphasizing the importance of maintaining clear boundaries and coordination between the two [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Evolution - The emergence of modern central banks is closely linked to the establishment of fiscal discipline and the gold standard, with the Bank of England recognized as the first modern central bank [8][9]. - The evolution of fiscal and monetary policies has been shaped by historical events, including the Great Depression, which highlighted the need for government intervention in economic activities [22][27]. - The transition from strict gold standard to a more flexible monetary system allowed central banks to adjust liquidity and money supply, reflecting the changing economic landscape [19][20]. Group 2: Policy Framework and Coordination - Fiscal and monetary policies are distinct yet interconnected tools for macroeconomic management, requiring independent decision-making by fiscal authorities and central banks to avoid severe issues [4][6]. - The article advocates for a clear delineation of responsibilities between fiscal and monetary policies, suggesting that both should adapt to the economic context while maintaining their primary objectives [4][30]. - The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is essential for effective macroeconomic regulation, particularly in addressing short-term fluctuations and long-term structural reforms [4][31]. Group 3: Implications for Future Policy - The article emphasizes the need for reform in fiscal systems to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly in the context of China's economic development [4][30]. - It suggests that improving the decision-making mechanisms for fiscal and monetary policies can lead to better economic outcomes, particularly in promoting high-quality growth [4][30]. - The importance of communication with the market during crisis responses is highlighted, indicating that both fiscal and monetary authorities should work collaboratively to manage economic challenges [4][30].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Strengthening - The fiscal policy for 2025 is set to be more proactive, shifting from "moderate increase" in 2024 to "more vigorous" measures in 2025, emphasizing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy[5] - The budget deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach a historical high, with significant increases in government bond issuance and spending intensity[14] - The focus of fiscal resources will be on people's livelihoods, consumption, and new productivity sectors, while also addressing risks in local debts and real estate[14] Group 2: Debt Instruments Expansion - The issuance of special bonds is set to increase to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, a 12.8% increase from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024[21] - The plan includes 5,000 billion yuan in special government bonds to support state-owned banks' capital replenishment, enhancing their risk resistance and credit capacity[17] - The scope of special bonds will expand to include land reserves and the acquisition of existing housing for public welfare, with a shift from a "positive list" to a "negative list" for eligible projects[21] Group 3: Existing and Incremental Policies - Existing policies will be accelerated, with special bonds and long-term special bonds being issued and utilized promptly to enhance effectiveness[39] - The government aims to release the effectiveness of existing policies while reserving space for new incremental policies as needed[39] - New policy financial tools are in preparation to support technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with an estimated scale of around 500 billion yuan expected to leverage investments significantly[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,346, having risen 0.5% on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of gains, primarily driven by unexpectedly weak U.S. ADP employment data, which has heightened expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, the first net decline since early 2023, contrasting sharply with the revised increase of 29,000 jobs in May, raising concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market [1][3] - The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with the likelihood of a July cut rising from 20% to 23% following the data release, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September nearing 100% [3] - The U.S. fiscal policy landscape is adding complexity to the gold market, with a proposed tax and spending bill expected to increase debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about deficit spending and inflation [3] - Global trade dynamics are also influencing gold price volatility, as a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam has alleviated some trade tension, contributing to a rise in investor risk appetite [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have shown signs of stabilization after a recent low of $3,247, forming a potential bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible challenge of resistance levels at $3,383 and above [5] - In the short-term, following a rebound from the $3,247 low, bullish momentum is expanding, with prices reaching a high of $3,365 before experiencing slight pullbacks, indicating ongoing upward potential [6] - Traders are advised to monitor key support levels around $3,337 and $3,316 for potential long positions, while resistance is noted at $3,365 and $3,383 [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the intense political struggle within the Republican Party regarding President Trump's proposed "Great America" economic bill, highlighting the potential loss of support from core MAGA voters if the bill is rejected [1][2] - The bill, which includes tax cuts, spending cuts, immigration control, and energy policy adjustments, is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, pushing federal debt beyond $36.2 trillion [1][2] Summary by Sections Legislative Controversy - The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts, reduces Medicaid and food security spending, adds budget for border control, and eliminates several renewable energy subsidies [2] - It also proposes raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, necessitating a new agreement in Congress to avoid a sovereign debt default [2] - The Senate passed the bill with a narrow margin, but the House vote remains uncertain, complicating Trump's legislative timeline [2] Political Dynamics - Trump's social media pressure on Republican lawmakers reflects anxiety over moderates within the party, especially regarding Medicaid cuts that have faced backlash [2][3] - Democrats have criticized the bill, claiming it could lead to approximately 10 million low-income individuals losing health insurance and that 83% of tax benefits would go to the wealthiest 1% [2] - The current deadlock reveals deep divisions within the Republican Party, with fiscal conservatives and populists at odds, testing party unity and the future fiscal direction of the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UK financial market experienced a significant sell-off, with a sharp decline in government bond prices and a rise in yields, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the management of the UK economy [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The UK bond market saw the 10-year government bond yield spike by 22 basis points to approximately 4.68%, marking the largest single-day increase since the autumn of 2022 [1]. - The UK stock market also faced declines, with the FTSE 100 index down by about 0.1% and the FTSE 250 index down by 1.3%, contrasting with gains in major European indices like France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX [2]. - The British pound weakened significantly, dropping over 1% against the US dollar and nearing a decline of 80 basis points against the euro [3]. Group 2: Political Context - The UK government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, made a significant policy shift by scaling back planned welfare cuts, resulting in a £5 billion fiscal gap, raising concerns about fiscal management [6]. - During a parliamentary session, the opposition leader questioned the suitability of the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, leading to speculation about her political future and potential changes in fiscal policy [7][8]. - Market analysts drew parallels between the current situation and the 2022 "mini-budget crisis," suggesting that the government's actions could lead to a repeat of past market turmoil [10]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The rise in bond yields and the decline in the pound are seen as indicators of diminishing confidence in the UK government's economic management [4][11]. - Analysts noted that Rachel Reeves is viewed as a stabilizing figure for fiscal policy, and her potential departure could further undermine market confidence [11]. - Unlike the 2022 crisis, the current market downturn is characterized by orderly selling driven by sentiment rather than forced liquidation, indicating a different market dynamic [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, shifting focus towards consumption alongside investment to stimulate economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The report highlights the need to support and expand consumption, identifying it as a critical point for stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [1] - The shift in macroeconomic policy direction is evident, moving from a focus on investment to a balanced approach that prioritizes consumption [1] Group 2: Economic Context - China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP remains lower compared to countries like the US and Japan, indicating significant potential for increasing consumption's contribution to economic growth [1] - The report notes that the current monetary growth is outpacing economic growth, yet prices remain low, suggesting that merely increasing money supply without improving supply-demand balance will not effectively boost demand [2] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability - The report indicates that the Chinese government's debt expansion is sustainable due to substantial state-owned assets and low government debt levels, especially in light of increased fiscal support this year [1] - Experts suggest that future fiscal policies should adjust spending structures to focus more on areas that stimulate consumption, such as elderly care, childcare, and healthcare services [1] Group 4: Financial Support Policies - The report outlines the implementation of a comprehensive financial support policy introduced in May, aimed at promoting reasonable price recovery and enhancing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy [2] - It emphasizes the need to lower bank funding costs and stabilize the foreign exchange market to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2]

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]