Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 14,110 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2508 contract showed an oscillating and strongly - trending pattern, with the futures price slightly rising 0.18% to 11,290 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic high - level meetings have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. The downstream demand is weak, with the tire production and sales growth slowing down and the terminal demand entering the off - season [7]

行业比较专题 证券研究报告 "反内卷"行情的三阶段 核心结论：反内卷行情如果发展顺利，可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下 的预期（幅度可能较小），第二段定价资源品价格上涨，第三段定价资源品高 价横住的时间。目前投资者或预期类似 16-17 年供给侧改革带来的资源股行 情，但是目前行情尚在预期阶段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如 果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 和反内卷类似，当年的供给侧改革也属于供给侧出清。我们认为，相比需求侧 驱动，供给侧驱动由于带有比较强的政策因素，市场调节机制相对弱化。因此， 供需趋紧的持续时间更长、预判难度较高。供给侧驱动的特征就导致股价行情 大概率是分阶段的。 复盘 16-17 年的供给侧改革行情，最典型的例子是煤炭的落后产能淘汰。我们 重点分析股价和煤价的关系，可以分为三阶段： 策略报告 | 投资策略 1）第一段是 2016 年 2 月供给侧结构性改革文件发布；尽管站在当时看历史 案例不多，但市场已有部分格局出清、煤价企稳预期，可以发现 16 年 2 月煤 炭板块相对沪深 300 有小幅超额行情。 2）第二段是 2016 年 6 月，当时煤价小幅上涨，但煤炭 ...

Group 1: Credit and Debt Settlement - Several provinces have reported specific amounts allocated for settling overdue enterprise payments, with Hunan and Yunnan allocating 200 billion and 356 billion respectively, while Guangxi and Shaanxi have also set aside significant amounts from their special bonds [1][18][19] - Various counties have reported on the scale of overdue payments, with notable repayments such as 20.59 billion in Guizhou's Tongren Dejiang County, and several counties achieving a "zero balance" on overdue payments [1][19][20] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The recent fluctuation in the price of Moutai has affected market sentiment, prompting leading brands to explore new consumption scenarios and target younger demographics [2][29] - The beer sector has seen a decline, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Yanjing Beer as consumption policies evolve [2][30] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with health products and baked goods showing growth, while traditional alcoholic beverages face challenges [2][28][31] Group 3: Internet Industry - The valuation of Chinese internet companies is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant valuation advantages [3][34] - The focus for 2025 is on the resurgence of growth and innovation within the Chinese internet sector, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively pursuing new business opportunities [3][34] - AI applications are expected to enhance the overall valuation of Chinese internet companies, with significant advancements in technology and business practices [3][34][35] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient in China is expected to expand market demand, with companies like Baolong Chuangyuan and Bailingbao positioned to benefit from this development [9][10] - The global market for allohexose is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 33.26% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong future potential [9][10] Group 5: Textile and Fashion Industry - Jin Hong Group is successfully leveraging IP licensing and cloud brocade to enhance its market presence, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][26] - The company is focusing on creating diverse consumer experiences through innovative retail strategies and collaborations with popular brands [8][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a significant surge in stock prices, driven by recent government policies aimed at addressing chaotic price competition and promoting industry consolidation [1][3]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry has faced intense competition over the past two years, leading to price wars that have severely impacted cash flows for many companies [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent meeting focused on rectifying low-price competition, which is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities [3]. - A previous meeting by the Central Financial Committee highlighted the need to combat "involution" in competition, leading to major photovoltaic glass companies announcing a collective 30% production cut [3]. Market Dynamics - The current market reaction indicates a strong positive sentiment following the government's policy announcements, with leading companies like Xurisheng Technology seeing stock increases of 20% and solar ETFs rising over 4% [1]. - The price of polysilicon is nearing the cash cost of leading companies, suggesting limited room for further declines, which may lead to a concentration of profits among top firms [3]. Investment Implications - For long-term investors, the shift from quantity-based competition to quality-based competition presents opportunities for companies with strong technology and cost control [3]. - Companies like GCL-Poly Energy have reduced their granular silicon costs to 27 yuan/kg, a 20% decrease from the previous year, while LONGi Green Energy has achieved a record efficiency of 33% for its silicon-perovskite tandem cells [3]. Future Considerations - Despite the positive outlook, the industry may face supply pressures in the second half of the year, necessitating close monitoring of production cut enforcement and cash flow improvements in Q3 [4]. - Companies with high debt levels and outdated technologies may struggle during this adjustment period, indicating a potential for significant industry consolidation [4].

Summary of Dekang Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dekang Group - **Industry**: Pig Farming and Processing Key Points and Arguments Industry Response and Strategy - Dekang Group actively responds to the National Development and Reform Commission's supply-side reform policies, planning for an increase in breeding sows and innovating farming models such as empowerment and resource integration to meet future development needs [2][5] Production and Efficiency Metrics - The target for pig output in 2025 is set at 11 million heads, with no expected changes due to established production capacity [3] - The company’s full cost in the first half of 2025 is approximately CNY 12.4 per kilogram, with potential for further reduction through learning from European farm management practices [2][7] - Dekang Group leads the industry in efficiency metrics, with a market age of 110 kg being 12 days ahead of the industry average and a PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) of about 28 [8] Growth and Production Capacity - The company has invested significantly in the No. 2 farm model, which is expected to be a key growth point, with the "Hundred Villages, Million Heads" model exceeding 50,000 heads [4][12] - The slaughtering business has a designed capacity of 5 million heads, with an expected utilization rate of about 20% in 2025, leading to a slaughter volume of approximately 1 million heads [4][23] Cost Structure and Future Projections - Current cost structure remains stable, with feed accounting for about 70%, and breeding costs slightly increasing compared to the previous year [10][15] - The company’s daily weight gain is approximately 780 grams, with potential for further cost reduction through precise nutrition and technology reserves [9] Genetic Resources and Disease Control - Dekang Group possesses superior genetic resources, with purebred pigs reaching 100 kg in 122.6 days and a feed conversion ratio of 1.84 [11][30] - The company has excellent disease control measures, with diarrhea incidence maintained below 0.3%, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.5% [11] Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission's policies are expected to stabilize pig prices, with recent measures leading to a noticeable increase in prices during June and July 2025 [26] - The company plans to lower slaughter weights in response to government policies [18] Future Development Plans - Dekang Group aims to enhance its slaughter business capacity utilization to 80% within the next three to four years [24] - The company maintains a high level of cash reserves to address market uncertainties and growth needs, with no immediate plans for direct financing [34] Competitive Landscape - The market for pig farming is competitive, with other companies also entering the No. 2 farm model, but Dekang Group believes it has core competitive advantages and a strong reputation [21][20] Conclusion - Dekang Group is well-positioned for future growth with its innovative farming models, strong genetic resources, and strategic responses to government policies, while also focusing on cost efficiency and production capacity enhancement [36]

弘则研究 内卷的反内卷：过剩工业品的春天？20250703 摘要 反内卷与 GDP 高增长目标存在冲突，官方尚未明确解释或调整 GDP 目 标，当前政策对市场更多是短期情绪冲击，难有全局性改变。需关注新 能源领域，特别是光伏和新能源车产业，这两个领域疫情期间产能扩张 显著，可能面临产能约束政策。 焦煤市场受多重因素推涨，包括地缘政治风险和环保限产，市场担忧钢 材产业重蹈 2015 年供给侧改革覆辙。在当前供给侧改革情绪下，不建 议做空焦煤，前期空单可考虑阶段性止损平仓，等待更明确政策出台后 再决策。 钢铁行业 1-5 月粗钢产量低于去年同期，市场已通过价格自我调节，下 半年无显著行政减产必要。焦煤行业资产负债率良好，钢材出口竞争力 增强，适当下行的焦煤价格有利于下游利润和出口，总体而言，钢铁行 业供给侧改革概率不高。 原料市场供应过剩主要因下游需求缺乏支撑，而非供应端增量明显。焦 煤平衡表已从过剩修正为平衡状态，但不会带来向上空间。关注国产矿 产量变化，预计全年度供应过剩问题因进口矿减量有所改善，但整体上 游库存仍预计垒库，对下半年原料市场偏空观点不变。 Q&A 最近中央财经委员会会议提到反内卷以及推动落后产 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the black commodities market, particularly coking coal and iron ore, with discussions on macroeconomic policies and their impacts on supply and demand dynamics in 2025 compared to 2015 [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - The black commodities market is experiencing a rebound driven by valuation and increased positions, with coking coal leading the charge after a prolonged bear market [2][5]. - The domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize prices through administrative production cuts in response to external demand pressures, which has led to a reduction in short positions and subsequent price increases [1][5]. - The iron ore market is currently neutral, lacking significant upward drivers, with limited price support from supply-demand fundamentals [6][29]. Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal has seen a price rebound, but there is uncertainty regarding whether it has reached its bottom, with discussions on long-term pricing strategies for the third and fourth quarters [3][7][17]. - The cost structure indicates that the industry faces losses if prices fall below approximately 850 RMB, suggesting a critical price point for sustainability [17]. Macroeconomic Influences - U.S. policies are expected to significantly impact the industrial commodities market, with a shift from tightening measures in the first half of 2025 to potential economic stimulus in the latter half [4][10]. - The "Great Beautiful Act" has implications for U.S. fiscal policy, increasing the deficit and potentially affecting risk asset valuations due to rising debt issuance [11][12]. Supply Chain and Pricing Strategies - The supply of coking coal and coke is under scrutiny, with recent price increases attributed to marginal improvements in supply-demand dynamics and environmental regulations affecting production [19][20]. - The market is currently experiencing a speculative atmosphere, with concerns about the sustainability of recent price increases as supply begins to recover [19][23]. Future Outlook - The outlook for iron ore and related commodities suggests a potential rebound after a period of weakness, with expectations of reduced production in September due to national events, followed by a likely recovery in demand [32]. - The overall sentiment in the black commodities market remains cautious, with a focus on monitoring macroeconomic indicators and potential shifts in government policy that could influence market dynamics [21][28]. Additional Important Content - The distinction between "anti-involution" and supply-side reforms highlights the reliance on industry self-regulation rather than top-down administrative measures, complicating the predictability of production cuts [8]. - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by manageable risks, low inventory levels, and low valuations, which support upward price movements in the commodities market [9]. - The sentiment-driven nature of the market suggests that any cooling of investor enthusiasm could lead to a rapid decline in prices, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a cautious investment approach [26][28].

Group 1 - Chongqing Steel (601005) has seen a significant rise in stock price, with its H-shares increasing by 130% recently, contrasting with its previous low of around 1 yuan last year [1][2] - The collective movement in steel stocks is attributed to recent production cuts in Tangshan and government meetings emphasizing the need to eliminate low-price competition and promote quality improvement [1][2] - The current production cuts in Tangshan are widespread but do not have a direct correlation with industry capacity reduction policies, leading to uncertainty about the future of capacity elimination in the steel sector [1][6] Group 2 - The recent surge in steel stocks has been driven by multiple favorable factors, including government policies aimed at reducing excess capacity and improving product quality [2][5] - The steel industry is characterized by a high concentration of low-priced and undervalued stocks, which tend to react strongly to news regarding capacity reduction [2][5] - The profitability of steel companies is closely linked to steel prices, which affects their willingness to reduce production; recent data shows that the steel industry achieved a profit of 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, surpassing the total profit of 29.19 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024 [5][6] Group 3 - The current market dynamics indicate that the overall supply-demand relationship in the steel industry has not undergone a significant shift, despite recent price fluctuations [4][8] - The focus of future policy efforts on capacity reduction may not necessarily target the steel industry, as the current overcapacity issues are more prevalent in emerging industries like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [6][8] - The capacity reduction policies are expected to be more market-driven and regionally tailored, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach that could lead to market volatility [7][8]

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 3, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The market has strong expectations for supply - side reform policies after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, which has boosted the prices of iron alloys. However, the current market shows a situation of strong expectations but weak reality. Although there is a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price - pressure and weakening costs. In the long - term, with the steel consumption entering the off - season, the iron alloy market remains relatively weak. The previous high - inventory and high - supply negative factors are weakening, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with a low pressure. The iron alloy will continue the de - stocking trend, but the speed has slowed down. There are expectations of electricity price cuts and a decline in manganese ore prices in July. The iron alloy is expected to run weakly, but due to the decline in positions and low valuations, it may be disturbed by news in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.4% [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.41% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.7% [2] 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SF2509 and SM2509 futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Core Contradiction - Policy expectations from the Central Financial and Economic Commission's meeting have boosted iron alloy prices, but the market faces a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. The long - term trend is weak due to factors such as steel mill price - pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of steel consumption. However, de - stocking continues, and there are expectations of cost reduction. In the short - term, rebounds may occur, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [3] 3.4利多解读 (Positive Analysis) Silicon Iron - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot - metal production, which supports the demand for silicon iron. Also, due to the continuous price decline, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [6] Silicon Manganese - The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. Similar to silicon iron, there is a possibility of a rebound due to low valuation [7] 3.5利空解读 (Negative Analysis) Silicon Iron - There is a possibility of increased production due to profit repair. The electricity cost of iron alloys is expected to decline further. The inventory of iron enterprises is 69,400 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period, and the silicon - iron warehouse receipt inventory is higher than the historical average after re - registration [11] Silicon Manganese - In the long - term, the real - estate market slump and the decline of the black sector have raised doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon - manganese production enterprises is 39.21%, a 2.82% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output is 179,200 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous period [12] 3.6 Daily Data Silicon Iron - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [8] Silicon Manganese - Data on July 2, 2025, shows changes in various indicators such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipt inventory compared to previous days and weeks [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus [6][9][12]. - Due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [2][4][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US ADP employment change in June was -33,000, significantly lower than the expected 95,000 and the previous value of 29,000. This was the first employment contraction since March 2023, indicating weakness in the US labor market. As the employment data weakened, the market increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in July, with the probability rising from 20% to 27.4% [6]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will implement a 0% tariff on US imports, while Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face a 20% tariff, and goods deemed to be "transshipped through Vietnam" will be subject to a 40% tariff, targeting China. The previous agreement framework with China may face uncertainties. In the overnight market, although the US employment data was weak, the trade news had a greater impact. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields declined at both short and long ends, gold prices increased, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly fell, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly increased, and the offshore RMB exchange rate remained basically flat. Attention should be paid to the US non-farm payroll data today, as the weak ADP data does not necessarily mean the non-farm payroll data will be weak [6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Wednesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and slightly declined by 0.09%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.13%. The market showed a differentiated adjustment trend. Although the broader market was supported by banks and did not decline, individual stocks tumbled. Similar to the previous rise of Guotai Junan International in Hong Kong stocks, Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. in Hong Kong stocks soared by 91.11%, mainly affected by a 30% limit on sintering machines in Tangshan, which also drove up the A-share steel sector and other cyclical sectors. Cyclical industries seem to be starting a new round of supply-side reform, consistent with the "anti-involution" tone. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors may be problematic. Among sectors, steel, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and banking rose, while electronics, communications, military, computer, and beauty care sectors led the decline. There were 1,943 rising stocks and 3,282 falling stocks in the entire market [2][7]. - The People's Bank of China issued the "Administrative Measures for Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Industry Institutions," requiring industry institutions to submit large transaction reports within 5 working days for transactions with a single or daily cumulative amount of over RMB 100,000 [7]. 1.3 Important News - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, where the Vietnamese market will fully open to the US. Vietnam will pay a 20% tariff on any goods entering US territory, and a 40% tariff will be imposed on transshipped goods. Vietnamese state media reported that the US will significantly reduce tariffs on various Vietnamese products [9]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that there is currently no urgency to change policies [10]. - Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research in Hubei, emphasizing technology empowerment, accelerating industrial innovation, and continuously promoting high-quality development of the manufacturing industry [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over RMB 300 billion to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. So far, the RMB 800 billion list of "two major" construction projects for this year has been fully issued [10]. - European Commission President von der Leyen met with Wang Yi. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China-EU leaders' meeting is an important meeting at a critical juncture [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it will prevent and control risks in areas such as bond defaults and private funds in an orderly manner, and continuously optimize capital market mechanisms such as stock and bond financing and mergers and acquisitions to promote the efficient concentration of factors in the most promising areas [10]. - In the first half of this year, 12.6 million new A-share accounts were opened, a year-on-year increase of 32.77% [11]. - The China Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in June were 1.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 29% [11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam provides a sample for subsequent trade negotiations between other countries, leaving uncertainties for future China-US negotiations. China may face difficulties in countering the increased costs of re-export trade tariffs. Attention should be paid to trade agreement news before July 9. The non-farm payroll data released today is also a key focus. In the A-share market, due to the influence of news, the "anti-involution" seems to bring a new round of supply-side reform in cyclical industries, with traditional sectors rising. However, the sustainability of the rise in oversold sectors is questionable, and it is more likely to be a structural market. The index will fluctuate between 3400 - 3500 points. Given the intertwining of overseas tariffs, Fed rate cuts, and domestic policies, the subsequent market is likely to continue with a structural trend. A dumbbell strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares [12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as their corresponding futures contracts such as IH2507, IF2507, IC2507, and IM2507 [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents data on the performance of the spot market, including the trading volume, current points, daily, weekly, and monthly returns of major indices such as the Wind All A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, as well as the performance of various sectors [39]. - It also analyzes the impact of market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the performance of major indices [40][41]. - Additionally, the report shows the valuation levels of important indices and Shenwan sectors, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks, index trading volume changes, stock-bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and net margin trading purchases [43][47][49]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report provides data on central bank open market operations and Shibor interest rate levels to track market liquidity [54][55][56].